Forecasting US bond default ratings allowing for previous and initial state dependence in an ordered probit model

In this paper we investigate the ability of a number of different ordered probit models to predict ratings based on firm-specific data on business and financial risks. We investigate models based on momentum, drift and ageing and compare them against alternatives that take into account the initial rating of the firm and its previous actual rating. Using data on US bond issuing firms rated by Fitch over the years 2000 to 2007 we compare the performance of these models in predicting the rating in-sample and out-of-sample using root mean squared errors, Diebold-Mariano tests of forecast performance and contingency tables. We conclude that initial and previous states have a substantial influence on rating prediction.

Gamma Knife radiosurgery after previous microvascular decompression decreases the chances of pain free in classical trigeminal neuralgia

Purpose: To evaluate the safety-efficacy of Gamma Knife surgery (GKS) as a second treatment for classical trigeminal neuralgia (CTN), and the influence of prior microvascular decompression (MVD). Methods: Between July 1992 and November 2010, 737 patients have been operated with GKRS for ITN and prospectively evaluated in Timone University Hospital in Marseille, France. Among these, 54 patients had a previous history of MVD. Radiosurgery using a Gamma Knife (model B or C or Perfexion) was performed on the basis of on both MR and CT targeting. A single 4 mm isocenter was positioned in the cisternal portion of the trigeminal nerve at a median distance of 7.6 mm (range 3.9-11.9) anteriorly to the emergence of the nerve (retrogasserian target). A median maximum dose of 85 Gy (range 70-90) was delivered. Here, the 45 patients with previous MVD and a follow-up longer than one year are evaluated (the patients with megadolichobasilar artery compression and multiple sclerosis were excluded). Results: The median age in this series was 56.75 years (range 28.09-82.39). The median follow-up period was 39.48 months (range 14.10-144.65). All the patients had a past history of surgery, with at least one previous failed MVD, but also radiofrequency lesion (RFL) in 16 patients (35.6%), balloon microcompression in 7 (15.6%) and glycerol rhizotomy in 1 (2.2%). Thirty-five patients (77.8%) were initially pain free after GKS within a median time of 14 days (range 0, 180). Patients from this group had less probability of being pain free compared to our global population of essential trigeminal neuralgia without previous MVD history (p=0.010, hazard ratio of 0.64). Their probability of remaining pain free at 3, 5, 7 and 10 years was 66.5%, 59.1%, 59.1% and 44.3%, respectively. Twelve patients (34.3%) initially pain free experienced a recurrence with a median delay of 31.21 months (range 3.40-89.93). The hypoesthesia actuarial rate at 1 year was 9.1% and remained stable till 12 years with a median delay of onset of 8 months (range 8-8). Conclusions: Retrogasserian GKS proofed to be safe and effective on the long-term basis even after failed previous MVD. Even if the initial result of pain free was only 77.8%, the toxicity was low with only 9.1% hypoesthesia. No patient reported a bothersome hypoesthesia. The probability of maintaining pain relief in the long-term was of 44.3% at 10 years.

The current molecular phylogeny of Eutherian mammals challenges previous interpretations of placental evolution.

Based on histology, the placentae of eutherians are currently grouped in epitheliochorial, endotheliochorial and haemochorial placentae. In a haeckelian sense, the epitheliochorial contact with marked histiotrophic feeding by uterine milk is generally considered as primitive, especially since similar contacts exist in Marsupials. In contrast, the more intimate endotheliochorial and haemochorial contact, facilitating haemotrophic nutrition, is interpreted as a derived state. A cladistic analysis based on the phylogenetic relationships established by molecular analyses reveals that the basic clades are all characterized by an endotheliochorial or haemochorial placenta, and that the epitheliochorial placenta evolved at least three times in a convergent manner. This evolution may be explained by the fact that the epitheliochorial placenta in eutherians is more efficient in nutritional transfer (flow rate by exchange surface). Moreover, this arrangement may confer an advantage to the mother who can probably reduce the degree of manipulation by a genetically imprinted embryo.

Blood pressure change and outcome in acute ischemic stroke: the impact of baseline values, previous hypertensive disease and previous antihypertensive treatment.

BACKGROUND: Management of blood pressure (BP) in acute ischemic stroke is controversial. The present study aims to explore the association between baseline BP levels and BP change and outcome in the overall stroke population and in specific subgroups with regard to the presence of arterial hypertensive disease and prior antihypertensive treatment. METHODS: All patients registered in the Acute STroke Registry and Analysis of Lausanne (ASTRAL) between 2003 and 2009 were analyzed. Unfavorable outcome was defined as modified Rankin score more than 2. A local polynomial surface algorithm was used to assess the effect of BP values on outcome in the overall population and in predefined subgroups. RESULTS: Up to a certain point, as initial BP was increasing, optimal outcome was seen with a progressively more substantial BP decrease over the next 24-48 h. Patients without hypertensive disease and an initially low BP seemed to benefit from an increase of BP. In patients with hypertensive disease, initial BP and its subsequent changes seemed to have less influence on clinical outcome. Patients who were previously treated with antihypertensives did not tolerate initially low BPs well. CONCLUSION: Optimal outcome in acute ischemic stroke may be determined not only by initial BP levels but also by the direction and magnitude of associated BP change over the first 24-48 h.

Nonvitamin-k-antagonist oral anticoagulants in patients with atrial fibrillation and previous stroke or transient ischemic attack: a systematic review and meta-analysis of randomized controlled trials.

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: To assess whether the combined analysis of all phase III trials of nonvitamin-K-antagonist (non-VKA) oral anticoagulants in patients with atrial fibrillation and previous stroke or transient ischemic attack shows a significant difference in efficacy or safety compared with warfarin. METHODS: We searched PubMed until May 31, 2012, for randomized clinical trials using the following search items: atrial fibrillation, anticoagulation, warfarin, and previous stroke or transient ischemic attack. Studies had to be phase III trials in atrial fibrillation patients comparing warfarin with a non-VKA currently on the market or with the intention to be brought to the market in North America or Europe. Analysis was performed on intention-to-treat basis. A fixed-effects model was used as more appropriate than a random-effects model when combining a small number of studies. RESULTS: Among 47 potentially eligible articles, 3 were included in the meta-analysis. In 14 527 patients, non-VKAs were associated with a significant reduction of stroke/systemic embolism (odds ratios, 0.85 [95% CI, 074-0.99]; relative risk reduction, 14%; absolute risk reduction, 0.7%; number needed to treat, 134 over 1.8-2.0 years) compared with warfarin. Non-VKAs were also associated with a significant reduction of major bleeding compared with warfarin (odds ratios, 0.86 [95% CI, 075-0.99]; relative risk reduction, 13%; absolute risk reduction, 0.8%; number needed to treat, 125), mainly driven by the significant reduction of hemorrhagic stroke (odds ratios, 0.44 [95% CI, 032-0.62]; relative risk reduction, 57.9%; absolute risk reduction, 0.7%; number needed to treat, 139). CONCLUSIONS: In the context of the significant limitations of combining the results of disparate trials of different agents, non-VKAs seem to be associated with a significant reduction in rates of stroke or systemic embolism, hemorrhagic stroke, and major bleeding when compared with warfarin in patients with previous stroke or transient ischemic attack.

Culex gnomatos a New Species of the Spissipes Section of Culex (Melanoconion) (Diptera: Culicidae) from the Amazon Region

The adult male and female of Culex (Melanoconion) gnomatos n. sp. are described and compared with Cx. vomerifer Komp, Cx. portesi Senevet & Abonnenc and Cx. sacchettae Sirivanakarn & Jakob. Available data about distribution and bionomics are presented

Does previous hip arthroscopy negatively influence the short term clinical result of total hip replacement?

INTRODUCTION: The risk that hip preserving surgery may negatively influence the performance and outcome of subsequent total hip replacement (THR) remains a concern. The aim of this study was to identify any negative impact of previous hip arthroscopy on THR. METHODS: Out of 1271 consecutive patients who underwent primary THR between 2005 and 2009, 18 had previously undergone ipsilateral hip arthroscopy. This study group (STG) was compared with two control groups (CG, same approach, identical implants; MCG, paired group matched for age, BMI and Charnley categories). Operative time, blood loss, evidence of heterotopic bone and implant loosening at follow-up were compared between the STG and the MCG. Follow-up WOMAC were compared between the three groups. RESULTS: Blood loss was not found to be significantly different between the STG and MCG. The operative time was significantly less (p < 0.001) in the STG. There was no significant difference in follow-up WOMAC between the groups. No implant related complications were noted in follow-up radiographs. Two minor complications were documented for the STG and three for the MCG. CONCLUSION: We have found no evidence that previous hip arthroscopy negatively influences the performance or short-term clinical outcome of THR.

Growth in a Cross-Section of Cities: Location, Increasing Returns or Random Growth?

This article analyzes empirically the main existing theories on income and population city growth: increasing returns to scale, locational fundamentals and random growth. To do this we implement a threshold nonlinearity test that extends standard linear growth regression models to a dataset on urban, climatological and macroeconomic variables on 1,175 U.S. cities. Our analysis reveals the existence of increasing returns when per-capita income levels are beyond $19; 264. Despite this, income growth is mostly explained by social and locational fundamentals. Population growth also exhibits two distinct equilibria determined by a threshold value of 116,300 inhabitants beyond which city population grows at a higher rate. Income and population growth do not go hand in hand, implying an optimal level of population beyond which income growth stagnates or deteriorates

JTM's Tumor immunology goes broad: announcing the Immunobiology and Immunotherapy section.

For the last four years the Journal of Translational Medicine (JTM) has hosted the Section of Tumor Immunology and Biological Cancer Therapy. Under the editorial leadership of Dr. Pedro Romero and with the direct support of the Society for Immunotherapy of Cancer (SITC), this section enriched the communication between basic immunological sciences and the clinical investigation arena in oncology. We are re-launching this Section of JTM, now entitled Immunobiology and Immunotherapy, succeeding Tumor Immunology and Biological Cancer Therapy. While aiming to build on the editorial success and focus of its predecessor, this novel Section will have a broader scope, hosting translational immunology topics pertaining to immunotherapy beyond oncology, including disciplines such as inflammation, autoimmunity, transplantation, metabolic disorders and others. As the vision of this re-launched Section of JTM broadens up to serve a communication need for translational immunologists involved with immunotherapy irrespectively of the therapeutic area, a novel and focused journal entitled Journal for Immunotherapy of Cancer (JITC) has just been initiated, sponsored by the SITC.

Notice 999 Catalogue of Publications - Section 3 (PDF 295 KB)

Jul-01

Integrate Study of a Bolivian Population Infected by Trypanosoma cruzi, the Agent of Chagas Disease

A cross section of a human population (501 individuals) selected at random, and living in a Bolivian community, highly endemic for Chagas disease, was investigated combining together clinical, parasitological and molecular approaches. Conventional serology and polymerase chain reaction (PCR) indicated an active transmission of the infection, a high seroprevalence (43.3%) ranging from around 12% in < 5 years to 94.7% in > 45 years, and a high sensitivity (83.8%) and specificity of PCR. Abnormal ECG tracing was predominant in chagasic patients and was already present among individuals younger than 13 years. SAPA (shed acute phase antigen) recombinant protein and the synthetic peptide R-13 were used as antigens in ELISA tests. The reactivity of SAPA was strongly associated to Trypanosoma cruzi infection and independent of the age of the patients but was not suitable neither for universal serodiagnosis nor for discrimination of specific phases of Chagas infection. Anti-R-13 response was observed in 27.5% only in chagasic patients. Moreover, anti-R13 reactivity was associated with early infection and not to cardiac pathology. This result questioned previous studies, which considered the anti-R-13 response as a marker of chronic Chagas heart disease. The major clonets 20 and 39 (belonging to Trypanosoma cruzi I and T. cruzi II respectively) which circulate in equal proportions in vectors of the studied area, were identified in patients' blood by PCR. Clonet 39 was selected over clonet 20 in the circulation whatever the age of the patient. The only factor related to strain detected in patients' blood, was the anti-R-13 reactivity: 37% of the patients infected by clonet 39 (94 cases) had anti-R13 antibodies contrasting with only 6% of the patients without clonet 39 (16 cases).

Reduction of the hand representation in the ipsilateral primary motor cortex following unilateral section of the corticospinal tract at cervical level in monkeys.

BACKGROUND: After sub-total hemi-section of cervical cord at level C7/C8 in monkeys, the ipsilesional hand exhibited a paralysis for a couple of weeks, followed by incomplete recovery of manual dexterity, reaching a plateau after 40-50 days. Recently, we demonstrated that the level of the plateau was related to the size of the lesion and that progressive plastic changes of the motor map in the contralesional motor cortex, particularly the hand representation, took place following a comparable time course. The goal of the present study was to assess, in three macaque monkeys, whether the hand representation in the ipsilesional primary motor cortex (M1) was also affected by the cervical hemi-section.¦RESULTS: Unexpectedly, based on the minor contribution of the ipsilesional hemisphere to the transected corticospinal (CS) tract, a considerable reduction of the hand representation was also observed in the ipsilesional M1. Mapping control experiments ruled out the possibility that changes of motor maps are due to variability of the intracortical microstimulation mapping technique. The extent of the size reduction of the hand area was nearly as large as in the contralesional hemisphere in two of the three monkeys. In the third monkey, it represented a reduction by a factor of half the change observed in the contralesional hemisphere. Although the hand representation was modified in the ipsilesional hemisphere, such changes were not correlated with a contribution of this hemisphere to the incomplete recovery of the manual dexterity for the hand affected by the lesion, as demonstrated by reversible inactivation experiments (in contrast to the contralesional hemisphere). Moreover, despite the size reduction of M1 hand area in the ipsilesional hemisphere, no deficit of manual dexterity for the hand opposite to the cervical hemi-section was detected.¦CONCLUSION: After cervical hemi-section, the ipsilesional motor cortex exhibited substantial reduction of the hand representation, whose extent did not match the small number of axotomized CS neurons. We hypothesized that the paradoxical reduction of hand representation in the ipsilesional hemisphere is secondary to the changes taking place in the contralesional hemisphere, possibly corresponding to postural adjustments and/or re-establishing a balance between the two hemispheres.