Implications of ernbodied technological change for development economics

Employing a embodied technologic change model in which the time decision of scrapping old vintages of capital and adopt newer one is endogenous we show that the elasticity of substitutions among capital and labor plays a key role in determining the optimum life span of capital. In particular, for the CD case the life span of capital does not depend on the relative price of it. The estimation of the model's long-run investment function shows, for a Panel data set consisting of 125 economies for 25 years, that the price elasticity of investment is lower than one; we rejected the CD specification. Our calibration for the US suggests 0.4 for the technical elasticity of substitution. In order to get a theoretical consistent concept of aggregate capital we derive the relative price profile for a shadow second-hand market for capital. The shape of the model's theoretical price curve reproduces the empírical estimation of it. \lVe plug the calibrate version of the long-run solution of the model to a cross-section of economies data set to get the implied TFP, that is, the part of the productivity which is not explained by the model. We show that the mo dei represent a good improvement, comparing to the standard neoc!assical growth model with CD production function and disembodied technical change, in accounting the world diversity in productivity. In addition the model describes the fact that a very poor economy can experience fast growth based on capital accumulation until the point of becoming a middle income economy; from this point on it has to rely on TFP increase in order to keep growing.

Diretor da London School of Economics, Craig Calhoun, é recebido pela FGV/DAPP durante visita institucional

O Diretor da London School of Economics and Political Science (LSE), Craig Calhoun, foi recebido na terça-feira (29) pelo Presidente da Fundação Getulio Vargas, Carlos Ivan Simonsen Leal, durante visita institucional à FGV. Pela manhã, os presidentes das duas instituições tiveram uma reunião com a presença do Secretário-Executivo da LSE, Hugh Martin, do Diretor da DAPP, Marco Aurélio Ruediger, do Diretor da EPGE (Escola Brasileira de Economia e Finanças), Rubens Cysne, da Diretora-Executiva da Editora FGV, Marieta de Moraes Ferreira, e do Prof. Antônio Carlos Porto Gonçalves, também da EPGE. No encontro, foi discutido o maior intercâmbio de alunos entre a LSE e a FGV e em projetos de pesquisa. À tarde, Calhoun realizou uma visita à sede da DAPP, onde participou de uma reunião de apresentação dos métodos de monitoramento e análise de rede desenvolvidos pela DAPP. Participaram da reunião, além do Diretor da DAPP, os pesquisadores Roberta Novis, Amaro Grassi e Pedro Lenhard.

The determinants of IMF fiscal conditionalities: economics or politics?

Conditionalites, measures that a borrowing country should adopt to obtain loans from the IMF, are pervasive in IMF programs. This paper estimates the effects of political and economic factors on the number of conditionalities and on the fiscal adjustment requested by the IMF. As found in the literature, political proximity of the borrowing country to the Fund’s major shareholders has an important effect on the number of conditions in an agreement. However, the fiscal adjusment requested by the IMF is strongly affected by the size of a country’s fiscal deficit but not by political proximity. We also find a very small correlation between the number of conditions and the fiscal adjustment requested by the IMF

Law and economics in the civil law world: the case of Brazilian Courts

Conventional wisdom holds that economic analysis of law is either embryonic or nonexistent outside of the United States generally and in civil law jurisdictions in particular. Existing explanations for the assumed lack of interest in the application of economic reasoning to legal problems range from the different structure of legal education and academia outside of the United States to the peculiar characteristics of civilian legal systems. This paper challenges this view by documenting and explaining the growing use of economic reasoning by Brazilian courts. We argue that, given the ever-greater role of courts in the formulation of public policies, the application of legal principles and rules increasingly calls for a theory of human behavior (such as that provided by economics) to help foresee the likely aggregate consequences of different interpretations of the law. Consistent with the traditional role of civilian legal scholarship in providing guidance for the application of law by courts, the further development of law and economics in Brazil is therefore likely to be mostly driven by judicial demand.

Oil price shocks and policy implications the emergence of U.S. tight oil production: a case study

How have shocks to supply and demand affected global oil prices; and what are key policy implications following the resurgence of oil production in the United States? Highlights: − The recent collapse in global oil prices was dominated by oversupply. − The future of tight oil in the United States is vulnerable to obstacles beyond oil prices. − Opinions on tight oil from the Top 25 think tank organizations are considered. Global oil prices have fallen more than fifty percent since mid-2014. While price corrections in the global oil markets resulted from multiple factors over the past twelve months, surging tight oil production from the United States was a key driver. Tight oil is considered an unconventional or transitional oil source due to its location in oil-bearing shale instead of conventional oil reservoirs. These qualities make tight oil production fundamentally different from regular crude, posing unique challenges. This case study examines these challenges and explores how shocks to supply and demand affect global oil prices while identifying important policy considerations. Analysis of existing evidence is supported by expert opinions from more than one hundred scholars from top-tier think tank organizations. Finally, implications for United States tight oil production as well as global ramifications of a new low price environment are explored.

The economics of wage-led recovery: analysis and policy recommendations

The financial crisis and Great Recession have been followed by a jobs shortage crisis that most forecasts predict will persist for years given current policies. This paper argues for a wage-led recovery and growth program which is the only way to remedy the deep causes of the crisis and escape the jobs crisis. Such a program is the polar opposite of the current policy orthodoxy, showing how much is at stake. Winning the argument for wage-led recovery will require winning the war of ideas about economics that has its roots going back to Keynes’ challenge of classical macroeconomics in the 1920s and 1930s. That will involve showing how the financial crisis and Great Recession were the ultimate result of three decades of neoliberal policy, which produced wage stagnation by severing the wage productivity growth link and made asset price inflation and debt the engine of demand growth in place of wages; showing how wage-led policy resolves the current problem of global demand shortage without pricing out labor; and developing a detailed set of policy proposals that flow from these understandings. The essence of a wage-led policy approach is to rebuild the link between wages and productivity growth, combined with expansionary macroeconomic policy that fills the current demand shortfall so as to push the economy on to a recovery path. Both sets of measures are necessary. Expansionary macro policy (i.e. fiscal stimulus and easy monetary policy) without rebuilding the wage mechanism will not produce sustainable recovery and may end in fiscal crisis. Rebuilding the wage mechanism without expansionary macro policy is likely to leave the economy stuck in the orbit of stagnation.

Comparação da análise de diferentes perfis de poços pelo método DFA

The study of complex systems has become a prestigious area of science, although relatively young . Its importance was demonstrated by the diversity of applications that several studies have already provided to various fields such as biology , economics and Climatology . In physics , the approach of complex systems is creating paradigms that influence markedly the new methods , bringing to Statistical Physics problems macroscopic level no longer restricted to classical studies such as those of thermodynamics . The present work aims to make a comparison and verification of statistical data on clusters of profiles Sonic ( DT ) , Gamma Ray ( GR ) , induction ( ILD ) , neutron ( NPHI ) and density ( RHOB ) to be physical measured quantities during exploratory drilling of fundamental importance to locate , identify and characterize oil reservoirs . Software were used : Statistica , Matlab R2006a , Origin 6.1 and Fortran for comparison and verification of the data profiles of oil wells ceded the field Namorado School by ANP ( National Petroleum Agency ) . It was possible to demonstrate the importance of the DFA method and that it proved quite satisfactory in that work, coming to the conclusion that the data H ( Hurst exponent ) produce spatial data with greater congestion . Therefore , we find that it is possible to find spatial pattern using the Hurst coefficient . The profiles of 56 wells have confirmed the existence of spatial patterns of Hurst exponents , ie parameter B. The profile does not directly assessed catalogs verification of geological lithology , but reveals a non-random spatial distribution

An Intelligent System for Petroleum Well Drilling Cutting Analysis

Cutting analysis is a important and crucial task task to detect and prevent problems during the petroleum well drilling process. Several studies have been developed for drilling inspection, but none of them takes care about analysing the generated cutting at the vibrating shale shakers. Here we proposed a system to analyse the cutting's concentration at the vibrating shale shakers, which can indicate problems during the petroleum well drilling process, such that the collapse of the well borehole walls. Cutting's images are acquired and sent to the data analysis module, which has as the main goal to extract features and to classify frames according to one of three previously classes of cutting's volume. A collection of supervised classifiers were applied in order to allow comparisons about their accuracy and efficiency. We used the Optimum-Path Forest (OPF), Artificial Neural Network using Multi layer Perceptrons (ANN-MLP), Support Vector Machines (SVM) and a Bayesian Classifier (BC) for this task. The first one outperformed all the remaining classifiers. Recall that we are also the first to introduce the OPF classifier in this field of knowledge. Very good results show the robustness of the proposed system, which can be also integrated with other commonly system (Mud-Logging) in order to improve the last one's efficiency.

Action mechanisms of petroleum hydrocarbons present in waters impacted by an oil spill on the genetic material of Allium cepa root cells

Chromosomal aberration (CA) assays have been widely used, not only to assess the genotoxic effects of chemical agents, but also to evaluate their action mechanisms on the genetic material of exposed organisms. This is of particular interest, since such analyses provide a better knowledge related to the action of these agents on DNA. Among test organisms, Allium cepa is an outstanding species due to its sensitivity and suitable chromosomal features, which are essential for studies on chromosomal damage or disturbances in cell cycle. The goal of the present study was to analyze the action mechanisms of chemical agents present in petroleum polluted waters. Therefore, CA assay was carried out in A. cepa meristematic cells exposed to the Guaeca river waters, located in the city of Sao Sebastiao, SP, Brazil, which had its waters impacted by an oil pipeline leak. Analyses of the aberration types showed clastogenic and aneugenic effects for the roots exposed to the polluted waters from Guaeca river, besides the induction of cell death. Probably all the observed effects were induced by the petroleum hydrocarbons derived from the oil leakage. (C) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Induction of micronucleus and nuclear alterations in fish (Oreochromis niloticus) by a petroleum

In this study, micronucleus and nuclear alterations tests were performed on erythrocytes of Oreochromis niloticus (Perciformes, Cichlidae) in order to evaluate the water quality of the Atibaia river, in an area that receives effluents discharge of a petroleum refinery and also to evaluate the effectiveness of the treatments used by the refinery. Water samples were collected in five different sites related with a refinery from São Paulo State, Brazil. For the micronucleus and nuclear alterations tests, O. niloticus specimens were exposed for 72 h to the water samples and in pure ground water (negative control). The results herein obtained indicated that the treatments used by the refinery diminished the cytogenetic damage; however they were not fully effective, since the final mill has induced damages in the genetic material of the test organism. (C) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Micronucleus and chromosome aberrations induced in onion (Allium cepa) by a petroleum refinery effluent and by river water that receives this effluent

In this study, micronucleus (MN) and chromosome aberration (CA) tests in Allium cepa (onion) were carried out in order to make a preliminary characterization of the water quality of the Atibaia River in an area that is under the influence of petroleum refinery and also to evaluate the effectiveness of the treatments used by the refinery. For these evaluations, seeds of A. cepa were germinated in waters collected in five different sites related with the refinery in ultra-pure water (negative control) and in methyl methanesulfonate solution (positive control). According to our results, we can suggest that even after the treatments (physicochemical, biological and stabilization pond) the final refinery effluent could induce chromosome aberrations and micronucleus in meristematic cells of A. cepa and that the discharge of the petroleum refinery effluents in the Atibaia River can interfere in the quality of this river. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Chromosome aberration and micronucleus frequencies in Allium cepa cells exposed to petroleum polluted water - A case study

In the present study, we applied Chromosome Aberration (CA) and Micronucleus (MN) tests to Allium cepa root cells, in order to evaluate the water quality of Guaeca river. This river, located in the city of Sao Sebastiao, SP, Brazil, had been affected by an oil pipeline leak. Chemical analyses of Total Petroleum Hydrocarbons (TPHs) and Polycyclic Aromatic Hydrocarbons (PAHs) were also carried out in water samples, collected in July 2005 (dry season) and February 2006 (rainy season) in 4 different river sites. The largest CA and MN incidence in the meristematic cells of A. cepa was observed after exposure to water sample collected during the dry season, at the spring of the river, where the oil leak has arisen. The F, cells from roots exposed to such sample (non-merismatic region) were also analyzed for the incidence of MN, showing a larger frequency of irregularities, indicating a possible development of CA into MN. Lastly, our study reveals a direct correlation between water chemical analyses (contamination by TPHs and PAHs) and both genotoxic and mutagenic effects observed in exposed A. cepa cells. (C) 2007 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

BTEX biodegradation by bacteria from effluents of petroleum refinery

Groundwater contamination with benzene, toluene, ethylbenzene and xylene (BTEX) has been increasing, thus requiring an urgent development of methodologies that are able to remove or minimize the damages these compounds can cause to the environment. The biodegradation process using microorganisms has been regarded as an efficient technology to treat places contaminated with hydrocarbons, since they are able to biotransform and/or biodegrade target pollutants. To prove the efficiency of this process, besides chemical analysis, the use of biological assessments has been indicated. This work identified and selected BTEX-biodegrading microorganisms present in effluents from petroleum refinery, and evaluated the efficiency of microorganism biodegradation process for reducing genotoxic and mutagenic BTEX damage through two test-systems: Allium cepa and hepatoma tissue culture (HTC) cells. Five different non-biodegraded BTEX concentrations were evaluated in relation to biodegraded concentrations. The biodegradation process was performed in a BOO Trak Apparatus (HACH) for 20 days, using microorganisms pre-selected through enrichment. Although the biodegradation usually occurs by a consortium of different microorganisms, the consortium in this study was composed exclusively of five bacteria species and the bacteria Pseudomonas putida was held responsible for the BTEX biodegradation. The chemical analyses showed that BTEX was reduced in the biodegraded concentrations. The results obtained with genotoxicity assays, carried out with both A. cepa and HTC cells, showed that the biodegradation process was able to decrease the genotoxic damages of BTEX. By mutagenic tests, we observed a decrease in damage only to the A. cepa organism. Although no decrease in mutagenicity was observed for HTC cells, no increase of this effect after the biodegradation process was observed either. The application of pre-selected bacteria in biodegradation processes can represent a reliable and effective tool in the treatment of water contaminated with BTEX mixture. Therefore, the raw petroleum refinery effluent might be a source of hydrocarbon-biodegrading microorganisms. (c) 2010 Elsevier B.A. All rights reserved.