Influence of the Central American Seaway and Drake Passage on ocean circulation and neodymium isotopes: A model study

The sensitivity of the neodymium isotopic composition (ϵNd) to tectonic rearrangements of seaways is investigated using an Earth System Model of Intermediate Complexity. The shoaling and closure of the Central American Seaway (CAS) is simulated, as well as the opening and deepening of Drake Passage (DP). Multiple series of equilibrium simulations with various intermediate depths are performed for both seaways, providing insight into ϵNd and circulation responses to progressive throughflow evolutions. Furthermore, the sensitivity of these responses to the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) and the neodymium boundary source is examined. Modeled ϵNd changes are compared to sediment core and ferromanganese (Fe-Mn) crust data. The model results indicate that the North Atlantic ϵNd response to the CAS shoaling is highly dependent on the AMOC state, i.e., on the AMOC strength before the shoaling to shallow depths (preclosure). Three scenarios based on different AMOC forcings are discussed, of which the model-data agreement favors a shallow preclosure (Miocene) AMOC (∼6 Sv). The DP opening causes a rather complex circulation response, resulting in an initial South Atlantic ϵNd decrease preceding a larger increase. This feature may be specific to our model setup, which induces a vigorous CAS throughflow that is strongly anticorrelated to the DP throughflow. In freshwater experiments following the DP deepening, ODP Site 1090 is mainly influenced by AMOC and DP throughflow changes, while ODP Site 689 is more strongly influenced by Southern Ocean Meridional Overturning Circulation and CAS throughflow changes. The boundary source uncertainty is largest for shallow seaways and at shallow sites.

Cost Improvements, Returns to Scale, and Cost Inefficiencies for Real Estate Investment Trusts

This paper extends the existing research on real estate investment trust (REIT) operating efficiencies. We estimate stochastic-frontier, panel-data models specifying a translog cost function. The specified model updates the cost frontier with new information as it becomes available over time. The model can identify frontier cost improvements, returns to scale, and cost inefficiencies over time. The results disagree with most previous research in that we find no evidence of scale economies and some evidence of scale diseconomies. Moreover, we also generally find smaller inefficiencies than those shown by other REIT studies. Contrary to previous research, higher leverage associates with more efficiency.

Which School Attributes Matter? The Influence of School District Performance and Demographic Composition on Property Values

Increasing levels of segregation in American schools raises the question: do home buyers pay for test scores or demographic composition? This paper uses Connecticut panel data spanning eleven years from 1994 to 2004 to ascertain the relationship between property values and explanatory variables that include school district performance and demographic attributes, such as racial and ethnic composition of the student body. Town and census tract fixed effects are included to control for neighborhood unobservables. The effect of changes in school district attributes is also examined over a decade long time frame in order to focus on the effect of long run changes, which are more likely to be capitalized into prices. The study finds strong evidence that increases in percent Hispanic has a negative effect on housing prices in Connecticut, but mixed evidence concerning the impact of test scores on property values. Evidence is also found to suggest that student test scores have increased in importance for explaining housing prices in recent years while the importance of percent Hispanic has declined. Finally, the study finds that estimates of property tax capitalization increase substantially when the analysis focuses on long run changes.

Relationship between dietary patterns and body mass index in Hispanic children ages 4--19 years of age

Background. In over 30 years, the prevalence of overweight for children and adolescents has increased across the United States (Barlow et al., 2007; Ogden, Flegal, Carroll, & Johnson, 2002). Childhood obesity is linked with adverse physiological and psychological issues in youth and affects ethnic/minority populations in disproportionate rates (Barlow et al., 2007; Butte et al., 2006; Butte, Cai, Cole, Wilson, Fisher, Zakeri, Ellis, & Comuzzie, 2007). More importantly, overweight in children and youth tends to track into adulthood (McNaughton, Ball, Mishra, & Crawford, 2008; Ogden et al., 2002). Childhood obesity affects body functions such as the cardiovascular, respiratory, gastrointestinal, and endocrine systems, including emotional health (Barlow et al., 2007, Ogden et al., 2002). Several dietary factors have been associated with the development of obesity in children; however, these factors have not been fully elucidated, especially in ethnic/minority children. In particular, few studies have been done to determine the effects of different meal patterns on the development of obesity in children. Purpose. The purpose of the study is to examine the relationships between daily proportions of energy consumed and energy derived from fat across breakfast, lunch, dinner, and snack, and obesity among Hispanic children and adolescents. Methods. A cross-sectional design was used to evaluate the relationship between dietary patterns and overweight status in Hispanic children and adolescents 4-19 years of age who participated in the Viva La Familia Study. The goal of the Viva La Familia Study was to evaluate genetic and environmental factors affecting childhood obesity and its co-morbidities in the Hispanic population (Butte et al., 2006, 2007). The study enrolled 1030 Hispanic children and adolescents from 319 families and examined factors related to increased body weight by focusing on a multilevel analysis of extensive sociodemographic, genetic, metabolic, and behavioral data. Baseline dietary intakes of the children were collected using 24-hour recalls, and body mass index was calculated from measured height and weight, and classified using the CDC standards. Dietary data were analyzed using a GEE population-averaged panel-data model with a cluster variable family identifier to include possible correlations within related data sets. A linear regression model was used to analyze associations of dietary patterns using possible covariates, and to examine the percentage of daily energy coming from breakfast, lunch, dinner, and snack while adjusting for age, sex, and BMI z-score. Random-effects logistic regression models were used to determine the relationship of the dietary variables with obesity status and to understand if the percent energy intake (%EI) derived from fat from all meals (breakfast, lunch, dinner, and snacks) affected obesity. Results. Older children (age 4-19 years) consumed a higher percent of energy at lunch and dinner and less percent energy from snacks compared to younger children. Age was significantly associated with percentage of total energy intake (%TEI) for lunch, as well as dinner, while no association was found by gender. Percent of energy consumed from dinner significantly differed by obesity status, with obese children consuming more energy at dinner (p = 0.03), but no associations were found between percent energy from fat and obesity across all meals. Conclusions. Information from this study can be used to develop interventions that target dietary intake patterns in obesity prevention programs for Hispanic children and adolescents. In particular, intervention programs for children should target dietary patterns with energy intake that is spread throughout the day and earlier in the day. These results indicate that a longitudinal study should be used to further explore the relationship of dietary patterns and BMI in this and other populations (Dubois et al., 2008; Rodriquez & Moreno, 2006; Thompson et al., 2005; Wilson et al., in review, 2008). ^

The determinants of improvements in health outcomes and of cost reduction in hospital inpatient care

This study aims to address two research questions. First, ‘Can we identify factors that are determinants both of improved health outcomes and of reduced costs for hospitalized patients with one of six common diagnoses?’ Second, ‘Can we identify other factors that are determinants of improved health outcomes for such hospitalized patients but which are not associated with costs?’ The Healthcare Cost and Utilization Project (HCUP) Nationwide Inpatient Sample (NIS) database from 2003 to 2006 was employed in this study. The total study sample consisted of hospitals which had at least 30 patients each year for the given diagnosis: 954 hospitals for acute myocardial infarction (AMI), 1552 hospitals for congestive heart failure (CHF), 1120 hospitals for stroke (STR), 1283 hospitals for gastrointestinal hemorrhage (GIH), 979 hospitals for hip fracture (HIP), and 1716 hospitals for pneumonia (PNE). This study used simultaneous equations models to investigate the determinants of improvement in health outcomes and of cost reduction in hospital inpatient care for these six common diagnoses. In addition, the study used instrumental variables and two-stage least squares random effect model for unbalanced panel data estimation. The study concluded that a few factors were determinants of high quality and low cost. Specifically, high specialty was the determinant of high quality and low costs for CHF patients; small hospital size was the determinant of high quality and low costs for AMI patients. Furthermore, CHF patients who were treated in Midwest, South, and West region hospitals had better health outcomes and lower hospital costs than patients who were treated in Northeast region hospitals. Gastrointestinal hemorrhage and pneumonia patients who were treated in South region hospitals also had better health outcomes and lower hospital costs than patients who were treated in Northeast region hospitals. This study found that six non-cost factors were related to health outcomes for a few diagnoses: hospital volume, percentage emergency room admissions for a given diagnosis, hospital competition, specialty, bed size, and hospital region.^

GPS raw data (control points and ground control points) from the Liguria Region, Borghetto Santo Spirito, Italy

Monitoring the impact of sea storms on coastal areas is fundamental to study beach evolution and the vulnerability of low-lying coasts to erosion and flooding. Modelling wave runup on a beach is possible, but it requires accurate topographic data and model tuning, that can be done comparing observed and modeled runup. In this study we collected aerial photos using an Unmanned Aerial Vehicle after two different swells on the same study area. We merged the point cloud obtained with photogrammetry with multibeam data, in order to obtain a complete beach topography. Then, on each set of rectified and georeferenced UAV orthophotos, we identified the maximum wave runup for both events recognizing the wet area left by the waves. We then used our topography and numerical models to simulate the wave runup and compare the model results to observed values during the two events. Our results highlight the potential of the methodology presented, which integrates UAV platforms, photogrammetry and Geographic Information Systems to provide faster and cheaper information on beach topography and geomorphology compared with traditional techniques without losing in accuracy. We use the results obtained from this technique as a topographic base for a model that calculates runup for the two swells. The observed and modeled runups are consistent, and open new directions for future research.

Oil viscosity from experiments and model calculations

Five frequently-used models were chosen and evaluated to calculate the viscosity of the mixed oil. Totally twenty mixed oil samples were prepared with different ratios of light to crude oil from different oil wells but the same oil field. The viscosities of the mixtures under the same shear rates of 10 s**-1 were measured using a rotation viscometer at the temperatures ranging from 30°C to 120°C. After comparing all of the experimental data with the corresponding model values, the best one of the five models for this oil field was determined. Using the experimental data, one model with a better accuracy than the existing models was developed to calculate the viscosity of mixed oils. Another model was derived to predict the viscosity of mixed oils at different temperatures and different values of mixing ratio of light to heavy oil.

Do electricity supply constraints matter for comparative advantage? : a neoclassical approach

This paper examines the extent to which electricity supply constraints could affect sectoral specialization. For this purpose, an empirical trade model is estimated from 1990-2008 panel data on 15 OECD countries and 12 manufacturing sectors. We find that along with Ricardian technological differences and Heckscher-Ohlin factor-endowment differences, productivity-adjusted electricity capacity drives sectoral specialization in several sectors. Among them, electrical equipment, transport equipment, machinery, chemicals, and paper products will see lower output shares as a result of decreases in productivity-adjusted electricity capacity. Furthermore, our dynamic panel estimation reveals that the effects of Ricardian technological differences dominate in the short-run, and factor endowment differences and productivity-adjusted electricity capacity tend to have a significant effect in only the long-run.

Proposal of an Alternative Model for Speed-Flow Relationship in Two-Lane Highways

A research has been carried out in two-lanehighways in the Madrid Region to propose an alternativemodel for the speed-flowrelationship using regular loop data. The model is different in shape and, in some cases, slopes with respect to the contents of Highway Capacity Manual (HCM). A model is proposed for a mountainous area road, something for which the HCM does not provide explicitly a solution. The problem of a mountain road with high flows to access a popular recreational area is discussed, and some solutions are proposed. Up to 7 one-way sections of two-lanehighways have been selected, aiming at covering a significant number of different characteristics, to verify the proposed method the different classes of highways on which the Manual classifies them. In order to enunciate the model and to verify the basic variables of these types of roads a high number of data have been used. The counts were collected in the same way that the Madrid Region Highway Agency performs their counts. A total of 1.471 hours have been collected, in periods of 5 minutes. The models have been verified by means of specific statistical test (R2, T-Student, Durbin-Watson, ANOVA, etc.) and with the diagnostics of the contrast of assumptions (normality, linearity, homoscedasticity and independence). The model proposed for this type of highways with base conditions, can explain the different behaviors as traffic volumes increase, and follows a polynomial multiple regression model of order 3, S shaped. As secondary results of this research, the levels of service and the capacities of this road have been measured with the 2000 HCM methodology, and the results discussed. © 2011 Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Assessment methodology applied to demand measures to change urban mobility behavior

In order to minimize car-based trips, transport planners have been particularly interested in understanding the factors that explain modal choices. Transport modelling literature has been increasingly aware that socioeconomic attributes and quantitative variables are not sufficient to characterize travelers and forecast their travel behavior. Recent studies have also recognized that users’ social interactions and land use patterns influence travel behavior, especially when changes to transport systems are introduced; but links between international and Spanish perspectives are rarely dealt with. The overall objective of the thesis is to develop a stepped methodology that integrate diverse perspectives to evaluate the willingness to change patterns of urban mobility in Madrid, based on four steps: (1st) analysis of causal relationships between both objective and subjective personal variables, and travel behavior to capture pro-car and pro-public transport intentions; (2nd) exploring the potential influence of individual trip characteristics and social influence variables on transport mode choice; (3rd) identifying built environment dimensions on travel behavior; and (4th) exploring the potential influence on transport mode choice of extrinsic characteristics of individual trip using panel data, land use variables using spatial characteristics and social influence variables. The data used for this thesis have been collected from a two panel smartphone-based survey (n=255 and 190 respondents, respectively) carried out in Madrid. Although the steps above are mainly methodological, the application to the area of Madrid allows deriving important results that can be directly used to forecast travel demand and to evaluate the benefits of specific policies that might be implemented in the area. The results demonstrated, respectively: (1st) transport policy actions are more likely to be effective when pro-car intention has been disrupted first; (2nd) the consideration of “helped” and “voluntary” users as tested here could have a positive and negative impact, respectively, on the use of public transport; (3rd) the importance of density, design, diversity and accessibility underlying dimensions responsible for land use variables; and (4th) there are clearly different types of combinations of social interactions, land use and time frame on travel behavior studies. Finally, with the objective to study the impact of demand measures to change urban mobility behavior, those previous results have been considered in a unique way, a hybrid discrete choice model has been used on a 5th step. Then it can be concluded that urban mobility behavior is not only ruled by the maximum utility criterion, but also by a strong psychological-environment concept, developed without the mediation of cognitive processes during choice, i.e., many people using public transport on their way to work do not do it for utilitarian reasons, but because no other choice is available. Regarding built environment dimensions, the more diversity place of residence, the more difficult the use of public transport or walking.

Economics of Wheat in Egypt

Este estudio pretende estimar la eficiencia y la productividad de las principales provincias de la producción de trigo en Egipto. Los datos utilizados en este estudio son datos de panel a nivel de provincias del período 1990-2012, obtenidos del Ministerio de Agricultura y Recuperación Tierras, y de la Agencia Central de Movilización Pública y Estadística, Egipto. Se aplica el enfoque de fronteras estocásticas para medir la eficiencia (función de producción de Cobb-Douglas) y se emplean las especificaciones de Battese y Coelli (1992) y (1995). También se utiliza el índice de Malmquist como una aproximación no paramétrica (Análisis de Envolvente de Datos) para descomponer la productividad total de los factores de las principales provincias productoras de trigo en Egipto en cambio técnico y cambio de eficiencia. El coeficiente de tierra es positivo y significativo en los dos especificaciones Battese y Coelli (1992) y (1995), lo que implica que aumentar la tierra para este cultivo aumentaría significativamente la producción de trigo. El coeficiente de trabajo es positivo y significativo en la especificación de Battese y Coelli (1992), mientras que es positivo y no significativo en la especificación de Battese y Coelli (1995). El coeficiente de la maquinaria es negativo y no significativo en las dos especificaciones de Battese y Coelli (1992) y (1995). El coeficiente de cambio técnico es positivo y no significativo en la especificación de Battese y Coelli (1992), mientras que es positiva y significativo en la especificación de Battese y Coelli (1995). Las variables de efectos del modelo de ineficiencia Battese y Coelli (1995) indican que no existe impacto de las diferentes provincias en la producción de trigo en Egipto; la ineficiencia técnica de la producción de trigo tendió a disminuir durante el período de estudio; y no hay ningún impacto de género en la producción de trigo en Egipto. Los niveles de eficiencia técnica varían entre las diferentes provincias para las especificaciones de Battese y Coelli (1992) y (1995); el nivel mínimo medio de eficiencia técnica es 91.61% en la provincia de Fayoum, mientras que el nivel máximo medio de la eficiencia técnica es 98.69% en la provincia de Dakahlia. La eficiencia técnica toma un valor medio de 95.37%, lo que implica poco potencial para mejorar la eficiencia de uso de recursos en la producción de trigo. La TFPCH de la producción de trigo en Egipto durante el período 1990-2012 tiene un valor menor que uno y muestra un declive. Esta disminución es debida más al componente de cambio técnico que al componente de cambio de eficiencia. La disminución de TFPCH mejora con el tiempo. La provincia de Menoufia tiene la menor disminución en TFPCH, 6.5%, mientras que dos provincias, Sharkia y Dakahlia, son las que más disminuyen en TFPCH, 13.1%, en cada uno de ellas. Menos disminución en TFPCH ocurre en el período 2009-2010, 0.3%, mientras que más disminución se produce en TFPCH en el período 1990-1991, 38.9%. La disminución de la PTF de la producción de trigo en Egipto se atribuye principalmente a la mala aplicación de la tecnología. ABSTRACT The objectives of this study are to estimate the efficiency and productivity of the main governorates of wheat production in Egypt. The data used in this study is a panel data at the governorates level, it represents the time period 1990-2012 and taken from the Ministry of Agriculture and Land Reclamation, and the Central Agency for Public Mobilization and Statistics, Egypt. We apply the stochastic frontier approach for efficiency measurement (Cobb-Douglas production function) and the specifications of Battese and Coelli (1992) and (1995) are employed. Also we use Malmquist TFP index as a non-parametric approach (DEA) to decompose total factor productivity of the main governorates of wheat production in Egypt into technical change and efficiency change. The coefficient of land is positive and significant at Battese and Coelli (1992) and (1995) specifications, implying that increasing the wheat area could significantly enhance the production of wheat. The coefficient of labor is positive and significant at Battese and Coelli (1992) specification, while it is positive and insignificant at Battese and Coelli (1995) specification. The coefficient of machinery is negative and insignificant at the specifications of Battese and Coelli (1992) and (1995). The technical change coefficient is positive and insignificant at Battese and Coelli (1992) specification, while it is positive and significant at Battese and Coelli (1995) specification. The variables of the inefficiency effect model indicate that there is no impact from the location of the different governorates on wheat production in Egypt, the technical inefficiency of wheat production tended to decrease through the period of study, and there is no impact from the gender on wheat production in Egypt. The levels of technical efficiency vary among the different governorates for the specifications of Battese and Coelli (1992) and (1995); the minimum mean level of technical efficiency is 91.61% at Fayoum governorate, while the maximum mean level of technical efficiency is 98.69% at Dakahlia governorate. The technical efficiency takes an average value of 95.37%, this implying that little potential exists to improve resource use efficiency in wheat production. The TFPCH of wheat production in Egypt during the time period 1990-2012 has a value less than one and shows a decline; this decline is due mainly to the technical change component than the efficiency change component. The decline in TFPCH is generally improves over time. Menoufia governorate has the least declining in TFPCH by 6.5%, while two governorates, Sharkia and Dakahlia have the most declining in TFPCH by 13.1% for each of them. The least declining in TFPCH occurred at the period 2009- 2010 by 0.3%, while the most declining in TFPCH occurred at the period 1990-1991 by 38.9%. The declining in TFP of wheat production in Egypt is attributed mainly to poor application of technology.

Impacto del entorno institucional en la financiación público-privada de infraestructuras de transporte

Actualmente el sector privado posee un papel relevante en la provisión y gestión de infraestructuras de transporte en los países de ingreso medio‐bajo, principalmente a través de los proyectos de participación público‐privada (PPPs). Muchos países han impulsado este tipo de proyectos con el fin de hacer frente a la gran demanda de infraestructuras de transporte existente, debido a la escasez de recursos públicos y a la falta de eficiencia en la provisión de los servicios públicos. Como resultado, las PPPs han experimentado un crecimiento importante en las últimas dos décadas a nivel mundial. A pesar de esta tendencia creciente, muchos países no han sido capaces de atraer la participación del sector privado para la provisión de sus infraestructuras o no han logrado el nivel de participación privada que habrían requerido para alcanzar sus objetivos. Según numerosos autores, el desarrollo y el éxito de los proyectos PPP de infraestructuras de transporte de cualquier país está condicionado por una diversidad de factores, siendo uno de ellos la calidad de su entorno institucional. La presente tesis tiene como objetivo principal analizar la influencia del entorno institucional en el volumen de inversión en proyectos de participación público‐privada de infraestructuras de transporte en los países de ingreso medio‐bajo. Para acometer dicho objetivo se ha realizado un análisis empírico de 81 países distribuidos en seis regiones del mundo, durante el periodo 1996‐2013. En el análisis se han desarrollado dos modelos empíricos aplicando principalmente dos metodologías: el contraste de hipótesis y los modelos de datos de panel Tobit. El desarrollo de estos modelos ha permitido analizar de una forma exhaustiva el tema de estudio. Los resultados obtenidos aportan evidencia de que la calidad del entorno institucional posee una influencia significativa en el volumen de inversión en los proyectos PPP de transporte. En general, en esta tesis se muestran evidencias empíricas de que el sector privado ha tendido a invertir en mayor medida en países con entornos institucionales fuertes, es decir, en aquellos países en los que ha existido un mayor nivel de Estado de derecho, estabilidad política y regulatoria, efectividad del gobierno, así como un mayor control de la corrupción. Además, aquellos países donde se ha registrado una mejora en el nivel de su calidad institucional también han experimentado un incremento en el volumen de inversión en PPP de transporte. The private sector has an important role in the provision and management of transport infrastructure in countries of medium‐low income, primarily through projects of public‐private partnerships (PPPs). Many countries have developed PPP projects to meet the high demand of transport infrastructure, due to the scarcity of public resources and the lack of efficiency in the provision of public services. As a result, PPPs have experienced a significant growth, worldwide, in the past two decades. Despite this growing trend, many countries have not been able to attract private sector participation in the provision of infrastructure or have not accomplished the level of private participation that would have required to achieve its objectives. According to various authors, the development of PPP projects for transport infrastructure is determined by a number of factors, one of them being the quality of the institutional environment. The main objective of this dissertation is to analyze the influence of the institutional environment on the volume of investment, in projects of public‐private partnerships for transport infrastructure in countries of medium‐low income. In order to meet this objective, we conducted an empirical analysis of 81 countries, in six regions of the world, during the period of 1996‐2013. The analysis used two empirical models, implementing different methodologies and various statistical techniques: hypothesis testing, and Tobit model using panel data. The development of these models allowed to carry out a more comprehensive analysis. The results show that the quality of the institutional environment has a significant influence on the volume of investment in PPP projects of transport. Overall, this dissertation shows that the private sector tends to invest more in countries with stronger institutional environments, i.e. countries where there has been a higher level of Rule of Law, political and regulatory stability, and an effective control of corruption. In addition, those that have improved the level of institutional quality have also experienced an increase in the volume of investment in PPP of transport.

Dynamic regulation of the tryptophan operon: A modeling study and comparison with experimental data

A mathematical model for regulation of the tryptophan operon is presented. This model takes into account repression, feedback enzyme inhibition, and transcriptional attenuation. Special attention is given to model parameter estimation based on experimental data. The model's system of delay differential equations is numerically solved, and the results are compared with experimental data on the temporal evolution of enzyme activity in cultures of Escherichia coli after a nutritional shift (minimal + tryptophan medium to minimal medium). Good agreement is obtained between the numeric simulations and the experimental results for wild-type E. coli, as well as for two different mutant strains.

Identifying the role of natural resources in knowledge-based strategies of development

Knowledge has adopted a preferential role in the explanation of development while the evidence about the effect of natural resources in countries’ performance is more controversial in the economic literature. This paper tries to demonstrate that natural resources may positively affect growth in countries with a strong natural resources specialization pattern although the magnitude of these effects depend on the type of resources and on other aspects related to the production and innovation systems. The positive trajectory described by a set of national economies mainly specialized in natural resources and low-tech industries invites us to analyze what is the combination of factors that serves as engine for a sustainable development process. With panel data for the period 1996-2008 we estimate an applied growth model where both traditional factors and other more related to innovation and absorptive capabilities are taken into account. Our empirical findings show that according to the postulates of a knowledge-based approach, a framework that combines physical and intangible factors is more suitable for the definition of development strategies in those prosperous economies dominated by natural resources and connected activities, while the internationalization process of activities and technologies become also a very relevant aspect.

3D model based map building

Comunicación presentada en el IX Workshop de Agentes Físicos (WAF'2008), Vigo, 11-12 septiembre 2008.