Estimating trends and seasonality in coronary heart disease

We present two methods of estimating the trend, seasonality and noise in time series of coronary heart disease events. In contrast to previous work we use a non-linear trend, allow multiple seasonal components, and carefully examine the residuals from the fitted model. We show the importance of estimating these three aspects of the observed data to aid insight of the underlying process, although our major focus is on the seasonal components. For one method we allow the seasonal effects to vary over time and show how this helps the understanding of the association between coronary heart disease and varying temperature patterns. Copyright (C) 2004 John Wiley Sons, Ltd.

Is the increase in coronary events on Mondays an artifact?

Background: The aim of this article was to investigate the size and possible causes of the reported excess in coronary events on Mondays. Methods: We conducted a metaanalysis of data from the World Health Organization (WHO) MONICA Project, which monitored trends and determinants in cardiovascular disease. The MONICA Project was undertaken in 21 countries from 1980 to 1995. Results: We found a small overall excess rate of coronary events on Mondays. In a population experiencing 100 events per week, we estimate there would be approximately I more event on Monday than on any other day. Hierarchical logistic regression showed that the Monday excess was greater in centers with less thorough data collection procedures. Conclusions: The excess of coronary events on Mondays is probably an artifact resulting from events with uncertain dates being coded as taking place on Mondays.

Colorectal cancer screening in Australia: an economic evaluation of a potential biennial screening program using faecal occult blood tests

Objective: To evaluate whether the introduction of a national, co-ordinated screening program using the faecal occult blood test represents 'value-for-money' from the perspective of the Australian Government as third-party funder. Methods: The annual equivalent costs and consequences of a biennial screening program in 'steady-state' operation were estimated for the Australian population using 1996 as the reference year. Disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) and the years of life lost (YLLs) averted, and the health service costs were modelled, based on the epidemiology and the costs of colorectal cancer in Australia together with the mortality reduction achieved in randomised controlled trials. Uncertainty in the model was examined using Monte Carlo simulation methods. Results: We estimate a minimum or 'base program' of screening those aged 55 to 69 years could avert 250 deaths per annum (95% uncertainty interval 99-400), at a gross cost of $A55 million (95% UI $A46 million to $A96 million) and a gross incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of $A17,000/DALY (95% UI $A13,000/DALY to $A52,000/DALY). Extending the program to include 70 to 74-year-olds is a more effective option (cheaper and higher health gain) than including the 50 to 54-year-olds. Conclusions: The findings of this study support the case for a national program directed at the 55 to 69-year-old age group with extension to 70 to 74-year-olds if there are sufficient resources. The pilot tests recently announced in Australia provide an important opportunity to consider the age range for screening and the sources of uncertainty, identified in the modelled evaluation, to assist decisions on implementing a full national program.

A review of two journals found that articles using multivariable logistic regression frequently did not report commonly recommended assumptions

Background and Objective: To examine if commonly recommended assumptions for multivariable logistic regression are addressed in two major epidemiological journals. Methods: Ninety-nine articles from the Journal of Clinical Epidemiology and the American Journal of Epidemiology were surveyed for 10 criteria: six dealing with computation and four with reporting multivariable logistic regression results. Results: Three of the 10 criteria were addressed in 50% or more of the articles. Statistical significance testing or confidence intervals were reported in all articles. Methods for selecting independent variables were described in 82%, and specific procedures used to generate the models were discussed in 65%. Fewer than 50% of the articles indicated if interactions were tested or met the recommended events per independent variable ratio of 10: 1. Fewer than 20% of the articles described conformity to a linear gradient, examined collinearity, reported information on validation procedures, goodness-of-fit, discrimination statistics, or provided complete information on variable coding. There was no significant difference (P >.05) in the proportion of articles meeting the criteria across the two journals. Conclusion: Articles reviewed frequently did not report commonly recommended assumptions for using multivariable logistic regression. (C) 2004 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Population effects on individual systolic blood pressure: A multilevel analysis of the World Health Organization MONICA project

Individuals from the same population share a number of contextual circumstances that may condition a common level of blood pressure over and above individual characteristics. Understanding this population effect is relevant for both etiologic research and prevention strategies. Using multilevel regression analyses, the authors quantified the extent to which individual differences in systolic blood pressure (SBP) could be attributed to the population level. They also investigated possible cross-level interactions between the population in which a person lived and pharmacological (antihypertensive medication) and nonpharmacological (body mass index) effects on individual SBP. They analyzed data on 23,796 men and 24,986 women aged 35-64 years from 39 worldwide Monitoring of Trends and Determinants in Cardiovascular Disease (MONICA) study populations participating in the final survey of this World Health Organization project (1989-1997). SBP was positively associated with low educational achievement, high body mass index, and use of antihypertensive medication and, for women, was negatively associated with smoking. About 7-8% of all SBP differences between subjects were attributed to the population level. However, this population effect was particularly strong (i.e., 20%) in antihypertensive medication users and overweight women. This empirical evidence of a population effect on individual SBP emphasizes the importance of developing population-wide strategies to reduce individual risk of hypertension.

El Niño Southern Oscillation and Ross River Virus Outbreaks in Australia

Various authors have suggested a general predictive value of climatic indices of El Nino/Southem Oscillation events as indicators of outbreaks of arbovirus disease, particularly Ross River virus in Australia. By analyzing over 100 years of historical outbreak data on Ross River virus disease, our data indicate that, although high Southern Oscillation Index and La Nina conditions are potentially important predictors for the Murray Darling River region, this is not the case for the other four ecological zones in Australia. Our study, therefore, cautions against overgeneralization and suggests that, since climate and weather exert different influences and have different biological implications for the multiplicity of vectors involved, it is logical that predictors should be heterogeneous.

A prospective study of the use of alternative therapies by men with localized prostate cancer

Although the use of alternative therapies is highly prevalent amongst men with prostate cancer, research about the predictors of such use is limited. The current study aimed to describe prospectively the use of alternative therapies by men diagnosed with localized prostate cancer and identify predictors of alternative therapy use. In all, 111 men newly diagnosed with localized prostate cancer (93% response) were recruited to the study prior to treatment. Men's use of alternative therapies and psychological variables including: psychological distress, orientation to health care, decisional conflict, and health locus of control, were assessed at three time points-(1) before treatment; (2) 2 months after completion of treatment; and (3) 12 months after completion of treatment. Demographic information was also obtained. The percentage of men using alternative therapies was 25, 17 and 14% before treatment, 2 and 12 months after treatment, respectively. In general, the most commonly used therapies were dietary changes, vitamins and herbal and nutrient remedies. Alternative therapy use was not related to final treatment choices. Before treatment, men who used alternative therapies were more uncertain about prostate cancer compared to men who were not using these therapies. Men who were using alternative therapies 12 months after treatment were less psychologically distressed that men who were not using these therapies. Health locus of control and orientation to health care were not found to be related to men's use of alternative therapies. In conclusion, men's use of alternative therapies after localized prostate cancer varied across time in terms of the incidence of use, the types of therapies used, and the psychological correlates of therapy use. Informational support that targets uncertainty about prostate cancer may assist men at diagnosis who are considering alternative therapy use. The potential for alternative therapies to have a supportive function in patient care requires further investigation. (C) 2003 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

The sense of belonging to a neighbourhood: can it be measured and is it related to health and well being in older women?

This study investigates the sense of belonging to a neighbourhood among 9445 women aged 73-78 years participating in the Australian Longitudinal Study on Women's Health. Thirteen items designed to measure sense of neighbourhood were included in the survey of the older women in 1999. Survey data provided a range of measures of demographic, social and health-related factors to assess scale construct validity. Factor analysis showed that seven of the items loaded on one factor that had good face validity and construct validity as a measure of the sense of neighbourhood. Two of the remaining items related to neighbourhood safety and comprised a factor. A better sense of neighbourhood was associated with better physical and mental health, lower stress, better social support and being physically active. Women who had lived longer at their present address had a better sense of belonging to their neighbourhood, as did women living in non-urban areas and who were better able to manage on their income. Feeling safe in the neighbourhood was least likely in urban areas, increased in rural townships, and was most likely in rural and remote areas. Older women living alone felt less safe, as did women who were less able to manage on their income. This study has identified two sets of items that form valid measures of aspects of the social environment of older women, namely the sense of neighbourhood and feelings of safety. These findings make a contribution to our understanding of the relationship between feelings of belonging to a neighbourhood and health in older women. (C) 2004 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

In vitro studies on the colonization of bovine colonic mucosa by Shiga-toxigenic Escherichia coli (STEC)

This study investigated host-related factors that influence intestinal colonization by Shiga-toxigenic E. coli (STEC). A quantitative colonization assay was developed to comparatively measure attachment of STEC to bovine colonic tissues maintained in vitro. No differences were determined in colonization susceptibility between tissues derived from weaning calves and adult cattle, or for tissues from cattle fed grain and forage-based rations. Substrate conditions designed to represent various intra-enteric environments were tested for their effect on STEC/mucosal interaction. Under conditions corresponding to a well-fed ruminant (high volatile fatty acid and lactate concentrations, low pH), significantly less STEC colonized the mucosal surface of colonic biopsies. These results may help explain why fasted. poorly or intermittently fed cattle and pre-ruminant calves excrete STEC to a greater degree. Studies on the ecology of STEC within the ruminant gut help identify mechanisms to reduce their threat to public health.

Country of birth, country of residence, and menopausal transitions and symptoms: British birth cohort and Australian Longitudinal Study on Women's Health

Objective: To explore endocrine-related and general symptoms among three groups of middle-aged women defined by country of birth and country of residence, in the context of debates about biological, cultural and other factors in menopause. Methods: British-born women participating in a British birth cohort study (n=1,362) and age-matched Australian-born (n=1,724) and British-born (n=233) Australian women selected from the Australian Longitudinal Study on Women's Health (ALSWH) responded to two waves of surveys at ages 48 and 50. Results: Australian-Australian and British-Australian women report reaching menopause later than British-British women, even after accounting for smoking status and parity. Hormone replacement therapy (HRT) use was lower and hysterectomy was more common among both Australian groups, probably reflecting differences in health services between Britain and Australia. The Australian-Australian and British-Australian groups were more likely to report endocrine-related symptoms than the British-British group, even after adjusting for menopausal status. British-British women were more likely to report some general symptoms. Conclusions: Symptom reporting is high among Australian and British midlife women and varies by country of residence, country of birth and menopausal status. Implications: The data do not support either a simple cultural or a simple biological explanation for differences in menopause experience.

Women are silver, women are diamonds: Conflicting images of women in the Cambodian print

This paper examines 116 articles related to sexual and reproductive health translated into English from the Khmer press from April 1997 to February 2004. These excerpts were found in The Mirror, a publication of the non-governmental organisation Open Forum of Cambodia, which collates Grid reviews all issues of the Khmer press on a weekly basis. Five major themes were identified: the politics of women's health, government regulation and control, the sex industry in Cambodia, rape, and the HIV epidemic. Discourse analysis of these articles in the context of other sources and experience allows a gendered exploration of the reporting of sexual and reproductive health and rights issues in Cambodia by the Khmer print media. The reports explore the contested political empowerment of women in this strongly hierarchical society, and the mechanisms used to regulate and control sexual activity. The expanding sex industry and associated sexual trafficking ore reported, together with the corruption of legal structures designed to regulate health systems and protect women and children from sexual exploitation and rope. The growing problem of AIDS and successes in reducing HIV transmission through the collaboration of sex workers in the 100% condom use policy is documented, and the tensions implicit in G Cultural representation of women that both protects and constrains women ore explored. (C) 2004 Reproductive Health Matters. All rights reserved.

The generational transmission of socioeconomic inequalities in child cognitive development and emotional health

Socioeconomic inequalities in the health of adults have been largely attributed to lifestyle inequalities. The cognitive development (CD) and emotional health (EH) of the child provides a basis for many of the health-related behaviours which are observed in adulthood. There has been relatively little attention paid to the way CID and EH are transmitted in the foetal and childhood periods, even though these provide a foundation for subsequent socioeconomic inequalities in adult health. The Mater-University of Queensland Study of Pregnancy (MUSP) is a large, prospective, pre-birth cohort study which enrolled 8556 pregnant women at their first clinic visit over the period 1981-1983. These mothers (and their children) have been followed up at intervals until 14 years after the birth. The socioeconomic status of the child was measured using maternal age, family income, and marital status and the grandfathers' occupational status. Measures of child CD and child EH were obtained at 5 and 14 years of age. Child smoking at 14 years of age was also determined. Family income was related to all measures of child CD and EH and smoking, independently of all other indicators of the socioeconomic status of the child. In addition, the grandfathers' occupational status was independently related to child CD (at 5 and 14 years of age). Children from socioeconomically disadvantaged families (previous generations' socioeconomic status as well as current socioeconomic status) begin their lives with a poorer platform of health and a reduced capacity to benefit from the economic and social advances experienced by the rest of society. (C) 2003 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Violence against young Australian women and association with reproductive events: a cross-sectional analysis of a national population sample

Objective: This study aimed to investigate associations between violence and younger women's reproductive events using Survey 1 (1996) data of the Younger cohort of the Australian Longitudinal Study of Women's Health (ALSWH). Methods: Multinomial regression, using composite variables for both violence and reproductive events, adjusting for socioeconomic variables and weighted for rural and remote areas. Results: 23.8% of 14,784 women aged 18 to 23 years reported violence; 12.6% reported non-partner violence in the previous year; and 11.2% reported ever having had a violent relationship with a partner. Of the latter group, 43% (4.8% overall) also reported violence in the past year. Compared with women reporting no violence, women reporting partner but not recent violence (OR 2.55, 95% Cl 2.10-3.09) or partner and recent violence (OR 3.96, 95% Cl 3.18-4.93) were significantly more likely to have had one or more pregnancies. Conversely, having had a pregnancy (2,561) was associated with an 80% increase in prevalence of any violence and a 230% increase in partner violence. Among women who had a pregnancy, having had a miscarriage or termination was associated with violence. Partner and recent violence is strongly associated with having had a miscarriage, whether alone (OR = 2.85, 95% Cl 1.74-4.66), with a termination (OR = 4.60, 2.26-9.35), or with birth, miscarriage and a termination (OR 4.12, 1.89-9.00). Conclusions and implications: Violence among young women of childbearing age is a factor for which doctors should be vigilant, well-trained and supported to identify and manage effectively.

Evaluating Patient Education Materials about Radiation Therapy

Targeted treatment education for cancer patients has the potential to promote adjustment through assisting patients to participate in treatment decision making, comply with treatment regimens and cope more effectively with treatment side effects. A quasi-experimental longitudinal pre-test post-test and follow-up design was used to assess the effect of a patient education video about radiation therapy on patients' psychological distress, knowledge about radiation therapy, self-efficacy about coping with treatment and physical symptoms. Patients with head and neck (n = 26) and breast cancer (n = 66) were recruited into the study and allocated into control and intervention groups. No significant differences were found between the control and intervention groups on any of the outcome variables. However, patients in the intervention group reported high levels of satisfaction with the video and all reported that they would recommend the video to other patients preparing for radiation therapy. As well, 90% of patients in the intervention group reported that some or all of the information in the video was new to them. Education materials that have excellent face validity and that are well received by patients may fail to produce significant change using standard controlled study designs. Future research in this area may need to consider alternative paradigms for evaluating the helpfulness of such materials. (C) 2003 Elsevier Science Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.