Pareto-improving optimal capital and labor taxes

We show a standard model where the optimal tax reform is to cut labor taxes and leave capital taxes very high in the short and medium run. Only in the very long run would capital taxes be zero. Our model is a version of Chamley??s, with heterogeneous agents, without lump sum transfers, an upper bound on capital taxes, and a focus on Pareto improving plans. For our calibration labor taxes should be low for the first ten to twenty years, while capital taxes should be at their maximum. This policy ensures that all agents benefit from the tax reform and that capital grows quickly after when the reform begins. Therefore, the long run optimal tax mix is the opposite from the short and medium run tax mix. The initial labor tax cut is financed by deficits that lead to a positive long run level of government debt, reversing the standard prediction that government accumulates savings in models with optimal capital taxes. If labor supply is somewhat elastic benefits from tax reform are high and they can be shifted entirely to capitalists or workers by varying the length of the transition. With inelastic labor supply there is an increasing part of the equilibrium frontier, this means that the scope for benefitting the workers is limited and the total benefits from reforming taxes are much lower.

Prévalence de la dénutrition chez 143 adultes en bilan prétransplantation hépatique. Experience lausannoise de 1997 a 2005 [Prevalence of undernutrition in 143 patients before liver transplantation. The Lausanne experience between 1997 and 2005]

The prevalence of undernutrition was prospectively studied in 143 patients before liver transplantation between 1997 and 2005. Nutritional assessment is a particularly tricky problem in cirrhosis and mid-arm muscle circumference is considered as the best reliable anthropometric tool. In this prospective study, prevalence rate is very high (61%) and undernutrition is more frequent in alcoholic cirrhotic patients. In conclusion, these patients should benefit from an early dietician intervention before liver transplantation.

Patrimoni Digital de Catalunya, a year and a half experience

E-repositories are part of the e-science, and they are based on the e-infrastructure. The Centre de Supercomputació de Catalunya (CESCA) together with the Consorci de Biblioteques Universitàries de Catalunya (CBUC) started in 1999 a cooperative repository, named TDR, to file, in digital format, the full-text of the read thesis at the universities of our country in order to spread them worldwide in open access, while at the same time, preserving the intellectual copyright of the authors. Since then, four additional cooperative repositories have been created: RECERCAT for research papers; RACO for scientific, cultural and erudite Catalan magazines; MDC for Catalan digital collections of pictures, maps, posters and old magazines; and PADICAT for archiving Catalan digital web content; The main objective of the latter is to archive Catalan web sites. That is, PADICAT collects, processes and provides permanent access to the entire cultural, scientific and general output of Catalonia in digital format. The repository manager is the Biblioteca de Catalunya, as the institution responsible for compiling, processing and distributing the bibliographic heritage of Catalonia, while CESCA is the technology partner. On September 11th, 2006 the repository went into operation for the general public, with some thirty websites archived. After one year and a half, it has 2.720 captures of more than 1.000 websites. This includes 34 million files (HTML, images...) and two terabytes of data. The objective of this paper is to present PADICAT and our experience developing and managing it.We describe the repository briefly, we explain the technology used to implement it and we comment our experiences during its first year and a half.

Three essays on the psychology of investment and financial markets

Préface My thesis consists of three essays where I consider equilibrium asset prices and investment strategies when the market is likely to experience crashes and possibly sharp windfalls. Although each part is written as an independent and self contained article, the papers share a common behavioral approach in representing investors preferences regarding to extremal returns. Investors utility is defined over their relative performance rather than over their final wealth position, a method first proposed by Markowitz (1952b) and by Kahneman and Tversky (1979), that I extend to incorporate preferences over extremal outcomes. With the failure of the traditional expected utility models in reproducing the observed stylized features of financial markets, the Prospect theory of Kahneman and Tversky (1979) offered the first significant alternative to the expected utility paradigm by considering that people focus on gains and losses rather than on final positions. Under this setting, Barberis, Huang, and Santos (2000) and McQueen and Vorkink (2004) were able to build a representative agent optimization model which solution reproduced some of the observed risk premium and excess volatility. The research in behavioral finance is relatively new and its potential still to explore. The three essays composing my thesis propose to use and extend this setting to study investors behavior and investment strategies in a market where crashes and sharp windfalls are likely to occur. In the first paper, the preferences of a representative agent, relative to time varying positive and negative extremal thresholds are modelled and estimated. A new utility function that conciliates between expected utility maximization and tail-related performance measures is proposed. The model estimation shows that the representative agent preferences reveals a significant level of crash aversion and lottery-pursuit. Assuming a single risky asset economy the proposed specification is able to reproduce some of the distributional features exhibited by financial return series. The second part proposes and illustrates a preference-based asset allocation model taking into account investors crash aversion. Using the skewed t distribution, optimal allocations are characterized as a resulting tradeoff between the distribution four moments. The specification highlights the preference for odd moments and the aversion for even moments. Qualitatively, optimal portfolios are analyzed in terms of firm characteristics and in a setting that reflects real-time asset allocation, a systematic over-performance is obtained compared to the aggregate stock market. Finally, in my third article, dynamic option-based investment strategies are derived and illustrated for investors presenting downside loss aversion. The problem is solved in closed form when the stock market exhibits stochastic volatility and jumps. The specification of downside loss averse utility functions allows corresponding terminal wealth profiles to be expressed as options on the stochastic discount factor contingent on the loss aversion level. Therefore dynamic strategies reduce to the replicating portfolio using exchange traded and well selected options, and the risky stock.

The Venezuelan experience in the control of Schistosomiasis mansoni

Schistosomiasis mansoni endemic zone of Venezuela is located in the valleys of the north central mountain region, with an extension of 15,000 km2 and inhabited by 5.1 million persons. The disease was discovered in 1906, but an organized Control Program was not established until 1943. Its basic activity has been the control of the snail vector, but prevention of man-water contact, prevention of snail infection, treatment of infected people and sanitary instruction, have also been carried out. Prevalence has diminished from 14.7% (1943-60) to 0.9% (1981-84). At present few active foci still persist, but a low transmission rate and low morbidity makes it difficult to know the exact number of infected people, which has been estimulated to be about 50,000.

Optimal feedback control rules sensitive to controlled endogenous risk-aversion

The objective of this paper is to correct and improve the results obtained by Van der Ploeg (1984a, 1984b) and utilized in the theoretical literature related to feedback stochastic optimal control sensitive to constant exogenous risk-aversion (see, Jacobson, 1973, Karp, 1987 and Whittle, 1981, 1989, 1990, among others) or to the classic context of risk-neutral decision-makers (see, Chow, 1973, 1976a, 1976b, 1977, 1978, 1981, 1993). More realistic and attractive, this new approach is placed in the context of a time-varying endogenous risk-aversion which is under the control of the decision-maker. It has strong qualitative implications on the agent's optimal policy during the entire planning horizon.

Women's decision making and experience of subsequent pregnancy following stillbirth.

INTRODUCTION: This study sought to increase understanding of women's thoughts and feelings about decision making and the experience of subsequent pregnancy following stillbirth (intrauterine death after 24 weeks' gestation). METHODS: Eleven women were interviewed, 8 of whom were pregnant at the time of the interview. Modified grounded theory was used to guide the research methodology and to analyze the data. RESULTS: A model was developed to illustrate women's experiences of decision making in relation to subsequent pregnancy and of subsequent pregnancy itself. DISCUSSION: The results of the current study have significant implications for women who have experienced stillbirth and the health professionals who work with them. Based on the model, women may find it helpful to discuss their beliefs in relation to healing and health professionals to provide support with this in mind. Women and their partners may also benefit from explanations and support about the potentially conflicting emotions they may experience during this time.

Comparison of two osteoporotic fracture management pathways: experience at 1 year

Introduction: Osteoporosis presenting as low-impact fractures to traumatology units is often undiagnosed and under-treated. Results from the Osteocare study in Lausanne (a nurse based intervention, passive pathway) showed that only 19% of patients received management for osteoporosis, and in the literature [1], the rate is between 10-25%. We have evaluated a different management concept, based on the systematic assessment of patients with osteoporotic fractures during and after hospitalization (active pathway). Methods: Inpatients admitted to the Department of Musculoskeletal Medicine for a fragility fracture were identified by a nurse according to a predefined questionnaire and were then clinically evaluated by a doctor. Based on the results, a management plan was proposed to the patients. Patients could choose between follow up either by their GP or by the Centre of Bone Disease of the CHUV. For patients who chose follow-up in our Centre, we assessed their adherence to medical follow-up 1 year inclusion. The results of patients who had been evaluated in our cohort between the 1 November 2008 and the 1 December 2009 were analysed. Results: 573 inpatients received specific management of their osteoporotic fracture over 18 months. The mean age was 77 y (31-99), 81% were women (203 hip fractures, 40 pelvis fractures, 101 arm fractures, 57 vertebral fractures, 63 ankle fractures, and 25 others sites). During the study period, 303 patients received a proposition of a specific treatment. 39 (13%) chose a follow up with the GP, 19 (6%) dead and 245 (81%) preferred a follow up in our Centre. After 1 year, 166 (67%) patients are under follow up in our outpatient clinic. Conclusion: With an active clinical pathway that starts during the hospitalization, consisting on a nursing evaluation followed by a medical consultation by an expert in osteoporosis, the adherence increased from 19% to 67% in terms of follow up. These results lead us to propose a consultation with a doctor experienced in osteoporosis after all osteoporotic fractures.

Outcome and Experience from the Swiss Mammography Screening Pilot Programmes

BACKGROUND:The Swiss breast cancer screening pilot programme was conducted in 3 districts of theFrench-speaking canton of Vaud (ca. 300,000 resident women) between October 1993 and January 1999.Women aged 50 to 69 were invited by mail every 2 years for a free of charge screening mammography (doubleview, multiple reading). This first ever-organised cancer screening programme in Switzerland showed thefeasibility and acceptability of this kind of public health intervention in the liberal Swiss healthcare system, whichwas the main objective of the pilot programme. This mammographic screening programme was extended to thewhole canton in 1999, and contributed to the implementation of similar programmes in 2 neighbouring cantons. OBJECTIVE:To appraise the use, the quality and the effectiveness of the Swiss screening pilot programme. METHODS:About 15,000 women (aged 50-69) were enrolled. Logistic regression analyses were performedseparately to identify determinants of initial and subsequent attendance. Standard indicators of quality,effectiveness and impact of the programme were assessed and compared with European recommendations. Tothis intent, linkage with data from the Vaud Cancer Registry was performed. RESULTS:About half the target population was screened at least once during the pilot trial. Participation washigher among Swiss than foreigners, among widowed or married women than among single, divorced or separatedones. Attendance also increased with age and decreasing distance between residence and the dedicatedscreening centre. Apart from Swiss citizenship, socio-demographic factors were not associated with reattendance.Intensity of prior recruitment, outcome of previous screening test (positive vs. negative) and indicators of women'shealth behaviour (time of last mammography prior to initial screen, smoking status) were the main determinants ofreattendance. Programme performance and quality indicators were, overall, in line with European Guidelines. Theywere overall more favourable among 60-69 than 50-59 year-olds and improved over time. CONCLUSION:The objectives of the pilot programme were met. Even if participation should increase in order toreach European standards, performance indicators overall met quality requirements. Ways to improve screeninguse, quality and effectiveness were devised and taken into account for the generalisation of the programme.

Lowering blood alcohol content levels to save lives: The european experience

Road safety has become an increasing concern in developed countries due to the significant amount of mortal victims and the economic losses derived. Only in 2005 these losses rose to 200.000 million euros, a significant amount - approximately the 2% of its GDP- that easily justifies any public intervention. One tool used by governments to face this challenge is the enactment of stricter policies and regulations. Since drunk driving is one of the most important concerns of public authorities on this field, several European countries decided to lower their illegal Blood Alcohol Content levels to 0.5 mg/ml during the last decade. This study evaluates for the first time the effectiveness of this transition using European panel-based data (CARE) for the period 1991-2003 using the Differences-in-Differences method in a fixed effects estimation that allows for any pattern of correlation (Cluster-Robust). My results show the existence of positive impacts on certain groups of road users and for the whole population when the policy is accompanied by some enforcement interventions. Moreover, a time lag of more than two years is found in that effectiveness. Finally, I also assert the importance of controlling for serial correlation in the evaluation of this kind of policies.

Optimal Monetary Policy in a New Keynesian Model with Habits in Consumption

While consumption habits have been utilised as a means of generating a humpshaped output response to monetary policy shocks in sticky-price New Keynesian economies, there is relatively little analysis of the impact of habits (particularly,external habits) on optimal policy. In this paper we consider the implications of external habits for optimal monetary policy, when those habits either exist at the level of the aggregate basket of consumption goods (‘superficial’ habits) or at the level of individual goods (‘deep’ habits: see Ravn, Schmitt-Grohe, and Uribe (2006)). External habits generate an additional distortion in the economy, which implies that the flex-price equilibrium will no longer be efficient and that policy faces interesting new trade-offs and potential stabilisation biases. Furthermore, the endogenous mark-up behaviour, which emerges when habits are deep, can also significantly affect the optimal policy response to shocks, as well as dramatically affecting the stabilising properties of standard simple rules.

Optimal Martingales and American Option Pricing

Pricing American options is an interesting research topic since there is no analytical solution to value these derivatives. Different numerical methods have been proposed in the literature with some, if not all, either limited to a specific payoff or not applicable to multidimensional cases. Applications of Monte Carlo methods to price American options is a relatively new area that started with Longstaff and Schwartz (2001). Since then, few variations of that methodology have been proposed. The general conclusion is that Monte Carlo estimators tend to underestimate the true option price. The present paper follows Glasserman and Yu (2004b) and proposes a novel Monte Carlo approach, based on designing "optimal martingales" to determine stopping times. We show that our martingale approach can also be used to compute the dual as described in Rogers (2002).