Global hydrology modelling and uncertainty: running multiple ensembles with a campus grid.

Uncertainties associated with the representation of various physical processes in global climate models (GCMs) mean that, when projections from GCMs are used in climate change impact studies, the uncertainty propagates through to the impact estimates. A complete treatment of this ‘climate model structural uncertainty’ is necessary so that decision-makers are presented with an uncertainty range around the impact estimates. This uncertainty is often underexplored owing to the human and computer processing time required to perform the numerous simulations. Here, we present a 189-member ensemble of global river runoff and water resource stress simulations that adequately address this uncertainty. Following several adaptations and modifications, the ensemble creation time has been reduced from 750 h on a typical single-processor personal computer to 9 h of high-throughput computing on the University of Reading Campus Grid. Here, we outline the changes that had to be made to the hydrological impacts model and to the Campus Grid, and present the main results. We show that, although there is considerable uncertainty in both the magnitude and the sign of regional runoff changes across different GCMs with climate change, there is much less uncertainty in runoff changes for regions that experience large runoff increases (e.g. the high northern latitudes and Central Asia) and large runoff decreases (e.g. the Mediterranean). Furthermore, there is consensus that the percentage of the global population at risk to water resource stress will increase with climate change.

Process planning methodology: dynamic short-term planning for off-site construction in Slovenia

Planning is a vital element of project management but it is still not recognized as a process variable. Its objective should be to outperform the initially defined processes, and foresee and overcome possible undesirable events. Detailed task-level master planning is unrealistic since one cannot accurately predict all the requirements and obstacles before work has even started. The process planning methodology (PPM) has thus been developed in order to overcome common problems of the overwhelming project complexity. The essential elements of the PPM are the process planning group (PPG), including a control team that dynamically links the production/site and management, and the planning algorithm embodied within two continuous-improvement loops. The methodology was tested on a factory project in Slovenia and in four successive projects of a similar nature. In addition to a number of improvement ideas and enhanced communication, the applied PPM resulted in 32% higher total productivity, 6% total savings and created a synergistic project environment.

Assessing the impact of the 'Decoupling' reform of the common agricultural policy on Irish farmers' off-farm labour market participation decisions

This paper assesses the impact of the 'decoupling' reform of the Common Agricultural Policy on the labour allocation decisions of Irish farmers. The agricultural household decision-making model provides the conceptual and theoretical framework to examine the interaction between government subsidies and farmers' time allocation decisions. The relationship postulated is that 'decoupling' of agricultural support from production would probably result in a decline in the return to farm labour but it would also lead to an increase in household wealth. The effect of these factors on how farmers allocate their time is tested empirically using labour participation and labour supply models. The models developed are sufficiently general for application elsewhere. The main findings for the Irish situation are that the decoupling of direct payments is likely to increase the probability of farmers participating in the off-farm employment market and that the amount of time allocated to off-farm work will increase.

Involvement of phenazine-1-carboxylic acid, siderophores and hydrogen cyanide in suppression of Rhizoetonia solani and Pythium spp. damping-off by Pseudomonas oryzihabitans and Xenorhabdus nematophila

Entomopathogenic bacterial strains Pseudomonas (Flavimonas) oryzihabitans and Xenorhabdus nematophilus, both bacterial symbionts of the entomopathogenic nematodes Steinernema abbasi and S. carpocapsae have been recently used for suppression of soil-borne pathogens. Bacterial biocontrol agents (P. oryzihabitans and X nematophila) have been tested for production of secondary metabolites in vitro and their fungistatic effect,on mycelium and spore development of soil-borne pathogens. Isolates of Pythium spp. and Rhizoctonia solani, the causal agent of cotton damping-off, varied in sensitivity in vitro to the antibiotics phenazine-I-carboxylic acid (PCA), cyanide (HCN) and siderophores produced by bacterial strains shown previously to have potential for biological control of those pathogens. These findings affirm the role of the antibiotics PCA, HCN and siderophores in the biocontrol activity of these entomopathogenic strains and support earlier evidence that mechanisms of secondary metabolites are responsible for suppression of damping-off diseases. In the present studies colonies of R oryzihabitans showed production of PCA with presence of crystalline deposits after six days development and positive production where found as well in the siderophore's assay when X nematophila strain indicated HCN production in the in vitro assays. In vitro antifungal activity showed that bacteria densities of 101 to 10(6)cells/ml have antifungal activity in different media cultures. The results show further that isolates of Pythium spp. and R. solani insensitive to PCA, HCN and siderophores are present in the pathogen population and provide additional justification for the use of mixtures of entomopathogenic strains that employ different mechanisms of pathogen suppression to manage damping-off.

Biological control of Rhizoctonia solani Damping-off with a bacterium symbiotically associated with Steinernema abbasi

Rhizoctonia solani is a causal agent of damping-off of may cultivated plants. An isolate of the bacterium Pseudomonas oryzihabitans, symbiotically associated with the entomopathogenic nematode Steinernema abbasi, strongly inhibited the pathogen in vitro. The bacterium was firmly attached onto fungus mycelia and degraded the cell walls of the pathogen. In greenhouse experiments, bacterial suspension in sterile water applied in the soil, effectively controlled damping-off of radish.

Epidemiological risk assessment using linked network and grid based modelling: Phytophthora ramorum and Phytophthora kernoviae in the UK

We developed a stochastic simulation model incorporating most processes likely to be important in the spread of Phytophthora ramorum and similar diseases across the British landscape (covering Rhododendron ponticum in woodland and nurseries, and Vaccinium myrtillus in heathland). The simulation allows for movements of diseased plants within a realistically modelled trade network and long-distance natural dispersal. A series of simulation experiments were run with the model, representing an experiment varying the epidemic pressure and linkage between natural vegetation and horticultural trade, with or without disease spread in commercial trade, and with or without inspections-with-eradication, to give a 2 x 2 x 2 x 2 factorial started at 10 arbitrary locations spread across England. Fifty replicate simulations were made at each set of parameter values. Individual epidemics varied dramatically in size due to stochastic effects throughout the model. Across a range of epidemic pressures, the size of the epidemic was 5-13 times larger when commercial movement of plants was included. A key unknown factor in the system is the area of susceptible habitat outside the nursery system. Inspections, with a probability of detection and efficiency of infected-plant removal of 80% and made at 90-day intervals, reduced the size of epidemics by about 60% across the three sectors with a density of 1% susceptible plants in broadleaf woodland and heathland. Reducing this density to 0.1% largely isolated the trade network, so that inspections reduced the final epidemic size by over 90%, and most epidemics ended without escape into nature. Even in this case, however, major wild epidemics developed in a few percent of cases. Provided the number of new introductions remains low, the current inspection policy will control most epidemics. However, as the rate of introduction increases, it can overwhelm any reasonable inspection regime, largely due to spread prior to detection. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.