Smooth multibidding mechanisms

We propose a smooth multibidding mechanism for environments where a group of agents have to choose one out of several projects (possibly with the help of a social planner). Our proposal is related to the multibidding mechanism (Pérez-Castrillo and Wettstein, 2002) but it is "smoother" in the sense that small variations in an agent's bids do not lead to dramatic changes in the probability of selecting a project. This mechanism is shown to possess several interesting properties. Unlike in the study by Pérez Castrillo and Wettstein (2002), the equilibrium outcome is unique. Second, it ensures an equal sharing of the surplus that it induces. Finally, it enables reaching an outcome as close to effciency as is desired.

Fiscal policy, foresight and the trade balance in the U.S.

This paper investigates the effects of fiscal policy on the trade balance using a structural factor model. A fiscal policy shock worsens the trade balance and produces an appreciation of the domestic currency but the effects are quantitatively small. The findings match the theoretical predictions of the standard Mundell-Fleming model, although fiscal policy should not be considered one of the main causes of the large US external deficit. My conclusions differ from those reached using VAR models since the fiscal shock, possibly due to fiscal foresight, is nonfundamental for the variables typically used in open economy VARs.

No news in business cycles

This paper uses a structural, large dimensional factor model to evaluate the role of 'news' shocks (shocks with a delayed effect on productivity) in generating the business cycle. We find that (i) existing small-scale VECM models are affected by 'non-fundamentalness' and therefore fail to recover the correct shock and impulse response functions; (ii) news shocks have a limited role in explaining the business cycle; (iii) their effects are in line with what predicted by standard neoclassical theory; (iv) the bulk of business cycle fluctuations are explained by shocks unrelated to technology.

Parents, television and cultural change

This paper develops a model of cultural transmission where television plays a central role for socialization. Parents split their free time between educating their children which is costly and watching TV which though entertaining might socialize the children to the wrong trait. The free to air television industry maximizes advertisement revenue. We show that TV watching is increasing in cultural coverage, cost of education, TV's entertainment value and decreasing in the perceived cultural distance between the two traits. A monopolistic television industry captures all TV watching by both groups if the perceived cultural distance between groups is small relative to the TV's entertainment value. Otherwise, more coverage will be given to the most profitable group where profitability increases in group size, advertisement sensitivity and perceived cultural distance. This leads to two possible steady states where one group is larger but both groups survive in the long run. Competition in the media industry might lead to cultural extinction but only if one group is very insensitive to advertisement and not radical enough not to watch TV. We briefly discuss the existing evidence for the empirical predictions of the model.

Tax evasion, technology shocks, and the cyclicality of government revenues

This paper analyzes the behavior of the tax revenue to output ratio over the business cycle. In order to replicate the empirical evidence, we develop a simple model combining the standard Ak growth model with the tax evasion phenomenon. When individuals conceal part of their true income from the tax authority, they face the risk of being audited and hence of paying the corresponding fine. Under the empirically plausible assumptions that the intertemporal elasticity of substitution exhibits a sufficiently small value and that productivity shocks are serially correlated, we show that the elasticity of government revenue with respect to output is larger than one, which agrees with the empirical evidence. This result holds even if the tax system displays flat tax rates. We extend the previous setup to generate larger fiscal deficits when the economy experiences a recession.

Eimeria peltocephali n. sp., (Apicomplexa:Eimeriidae) from the Freshwater Turtle Peltocephalus dumerilianus (Chelonia:Pelomusidae) and Eimeria molossi n. sp., from the Bat, Molossus ater (Mammalia:Chiroptera)

The oocyst is described of Eimeria peltocephali n.sp. from faeces of the freshwater turtle Peltocephalus dumerilianus from Barcelos, State of Amazonas, Brazil. Sporulation is exogenous and fully developed oocysts are elongate, ellipsoidal or cylindrical, frequently curved to a banana-shape, 54.4 x19.1 (37.5 - 68.7 x 18.7-20.0 µm), shape-index 2.8 (1.8 -3.9). The oocyst wall is a single thin, colourless layer about 1 µm thick, with no micropyle. There is a bulky oocyst residuum, at first spherical to ellipsoidal, 19 x 16 (16. 2 -26.2 x 16 - 21.5µm) , but becoming dispersed on maturation. There are no polar bodies. The sporocysts, 19.1 x 6.8 ( 17.5 -21.2 x 6.2 -7.5 µm), shape- index 2.8 (2.3 -3.2), are usually disposed in pairs at each end of the oocyst, and bear an inconspicuous Stieda body in the form of a flat cap. The sporozoites are elongate and slightly curved around the residuum. No refractile bodies were seen. Eimeria molossi n.sp., is described from the molossid bat Molossus ater. Sporulation is exogenous and the mature oocysts are predominantly broadly ellipsoidal, 23.4 x 17.5 (18-30 x 15-22.5 µm), shape-index 1.3 (1-1.6). The oocyst wall is about 2 µm thick, and of three layers: an inner thin, colourless one and two outer layers which are thicker, yellowish-brown, prominently striated and in close apposition. There is no micropyle or oocyst residuum, but one and occasionally two polar bodies are usually present. Sporocysts are ellipsoidal, 10.2 x 7.5 (10-12.5 x 7.5 µm), shape-index 1.4 (1.3-1.7) with an inconspicuous Stieda body. Endogenous stages are described in the epithelial cells of the small intestine

VeriStrat(®) has a prognostic value for patients with advanced non-small cell lung cancer treated with erlotinib and bevacizumab in the first line: Pooled analysis of SAKK19/05 and NTR528.

BACKGROUND: VeriStrat(®) is a serum proteomic test used to determine whether patients with advanced non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) who have already received chemotherapy are likely to have good or poor outcomes from treatment with gefitinib or erlotinib. The main objective of our retrospective study was to evaluate the role of VS as a marker of overall survival (OS) in patients treated with erlotinib and bevacizumab in the first line. PATIENTS AND METHODS: Patients were pooled from two phase II trials (SAKK19/05 and NTR528). For survival analyses, a log-rank test was used to determine if there was a statistically significant difference between groups. The hazard ratio (HR) of any separation was assessed using Cox proportional hazards models. RESULTS: 117 patients were analyzed. VeriStrat classified patients into two groups which had a statistically significant difference in duration of OS (p=0.0027, HR=0.480, 95% confidence interval: 0.294-0.784). CONCLUSION: VeriStrat has a prognostic role in patients with advanced, nonsquamous NSCLC treated with erlotinib and bevacizumab in the first line. Further work is needed to study the predictive role of VeriStrat for erlotinib and bevacizumab in chemotherapy-untreated patients.

A linear optimization technique for graph pebbling

Graph pebbling is a network model for studying whether or not a given supply of discrete pebbles can satisfy a given demand via pebbling moves. A pebbling move across an edge of a graph takes two pebbles from one endpoint and places one pebble at the other endpoint; the other pebble is lost in transit as a toll. It has been shown that deciding whether a supply can meet a demand on a graph is NP-complete. The pebbling number of a graph is the smallest t such that every supply of t pebbles can satisfy every demand of one pebble. Deciding if the pebbling number is at most k is NP 2 -complete. In this paper we develop a tool, called theWeight Function Lemma, for computing upper bounds and sometimes exact values for pebbling numbers with the assistance of linear optimization. With this tool we are able to calculate the pebbling numbers of much larger graphs than in previous algorithms, and much more quickly as well. We also obtain results for many families of graphs, in many cases by hand, with much simpler and remarkably shorter proofs than given in previously existing arguments (certificates typically of size at most the number of vertices times the maximum degree), especially for highly symmetric graphs. Here we apply theWeight Function Lemma to several specific graphs, including the Petersen, Lemke, 4th weak Bruhat, Lemke squared, and two random graphs, as well as to a number of infinite families of graphs, such as trees, cycles, graph powers of cycles, cubes, and some generalized Petersen and Coxeter graphs. This partly answers a question of Pachter, et al., by computing the pebbling exponent of cycles to within an asymptotically small range. It is conceivable that this method yields an approximation algorithm for graph pebbling.

An approximate mathematical model for solidification of a flowing liquid in a microchannel

A mathematical model is developed to analyse the combined flow and solidification of a liquid in a small pipe or two-dimensional channel. In either case the problem reduces to solving a single equation for the position of the solidification front. Results show that for a large range of flow rates the closure time is approximately constant, and the value depends primarily on the wall temperature and channel width. However, the ice shape at closure will be very different for low and high fluxes. As the flow rate increases the closure time starts to depend on the flow rate until the closure time increases dramatically, subsequently the pipe will never close.

Haar wavelets-based approach for quantifying credit portfolio losses

This paper proposes a new methodology to compute Value at Risk (VaR) for quantifying losses in credit portfolios. We approximate the cumulative distribution of the loss function by a finite combination of Haar wavelet basis functions and calculate the coefficients of the approximation by inverting its Laplace transform. The Wavelet Approximation (WA) method is specially suitable for non-smooth distributions, often arising in small or concentrated portfolios, when the hypothesis of the Basel II formulas are violated. To test the methodology we consider the Vasicek one-factor portfolio credit loss model as our model framework. WA is an accurate, robust and fast method, allowing to estimate VaR much more quickly than with a Monte Carlo (MC) method at the same level of accuracy and reliability.

A non-possibility theorem for joint-stability in interindustry models

Joint-stability in interindustry models relates to the mutual simultaneous consistency of the demand-driven and supply-driven models of Leontief and Ghosh, respectively. Previous work has claimed joint-stability to be an acceptable assumption from the empirical viewpoint, provided only small changes in exogenous variables are considered. We show in this note, however, that the issue has deeper theoretical roots and offer an analytical demonstration that shows the impossibility of consistency between demand-driven and supply-driven models.

Contact melting of a three-dimensional phase change material on a flat substrate

In this paper a model is developed to describe the three dimensional contact melting process of a cuboid on a heated surface. The mathematical description involves two heat equations (one in the solid and one in the melt), the Navier-Stokes equations for the flow in the melt, a Stefan condition at the phase change interface and a force balance between the weight of the solid and the countering pressure in the melt. In the solid an optimised heat balance integral method is used to approximate the temperature. In the liquid the small aspect ratio allows the Navier-Stokes and heat equations to be simplified considerably so that the liquid pressure may be determined using an igenfunction expansion and finally the problem is reduced to solving three first order ordinary differential equations. Results are presented showing the evolution of the melting process. Further reductions to the system are made to provide simple guidelines concerning the process. Comparison of the solutions with experimental data on the melting of n-octadecane shows excellent agreement.

Fauna silvestre del Parc del Garraf. Afectacions al sector primari

El Parc del Garraf (PG) ha estat tradicionalment una important zona agrícola, encara que actualment és molt reduïda (representa el 3% del total de la superfície del parc) i està repartida entre unes poques masies. Aquesta activitat humana conviu amb la fauna silvestre de la zona, que en alimentar-se parcialment dels cultius (cereal, vinya, oliveres, arbres fruiters i hortalisses), hi causa diversos impactes. És el cas de diverses aus, com ara la garsa (Pica Pica) i el pardal (Passer domesticus), i també d’alguns mamífers com el porc senglar (Sus scrofa). Hem observat que l’impacte produït per les aus i el porc senglar (Sus scrofa) és molt petit, el que pot ser degut a dos motius principals: possiblement per una elevada producció de fruits salvatges, esdevenint aquest aliment suficient per a les aus; i la baixa densitat poblacional de porc senglar (Sus scrofa) al parc. Els impactes observats presenten una alta variabilitat i depenen de l’època de l’any en que ens trobem. Per tant, cal fer-ne un seguiment més acurat on s’impliquin administració i pagesos per a millorar el coneixement de l’impacte de la fauna salvatge.

La sintaxis del lenguaje de los textos científicos: los tipos oracionales y los giros de participio y gerundio: estudio de un corpus ruso-español de textos médicos

Aquest treball analitza, mitjançant un petit corpus de textos mèdics especialitzats publicats en llengua espanyola d'Espanya (13.470 paraules) i llengua russa (12.318 paraules), els usos i freqüències dels tipus oracionals i dels girs de participi i gerundi en el llenguatge científic. L'objectiu del treball és descriure aquests aspectes sintàctics de la prosa científica original en aquestes dues llengües per tal de conèixer i evitar els calcs sintàctics en la traducció dels textos mèdics. Una sintaxi sense calcs ajuda a adequar el text meta a les expectatives del lector, en aquest cas l'especialista mèdic

Re-opening the black box in societal metabolism: the application of MuSIASEM to water

In this paper we address the complexity of the analysis of water use in relation to the issue of sustainability. In fact, the flows of water in our planet represent a complex reality which can be studied using many different perceptions and narratives referring to different scales and dimensions of analysis. For this reason, a quantitative analysis of water use has to be based on analytical methods that are semantically open: they must be able to define what we mean with the term “water” when crossing different scales of analysis. We propose here a definition of water as a resource that deal with the many services it provides to humans and ecosystems. WE argue that water can fulfil so many of them since the element has many characteristics that allow for the resource to be labelled with different attributes, depending on the end use –such as drinkable. Since the services for humans and the functions for ecosystems associated with water flows are defined on different scales but still interconnected it is necessary to organize our assessment of water use across different hierarchical levels. In order to do so we define how to approach the study of water use in the Societal Metabolism, by proposing the Water Metabolism, tganized in three levels: societal level, ecosystem level and global level. The possible end uses we distinguish for the society are: personal/physiological use, household use, economic use. Organizing the study of “water use” across all these levels increases the usefulness of the quantitative analysis and the possibilities of finding relevant and comparable results. To achieve this result, we adapted a method developed to deal with multi-level, multi-scale analysis - the Multi-Scale Integrated Analysis of Societal and Ecosystem Metabolism (MuSIASEM) approach - to the analysis of water metabolism. In this paper, we discuss the peculiar analytical identity that “water” shows within multi-scale metabolic studies: water represents a flow-element when considering the metabolism of social systems (at a small scale, when describing the water metabolism inside the society) and a fund-element when considering the metabolism o ecosystems (at a larger scale when describing the water metabolism outside the society). The theoretical analysis is illustrated using two case which characterize the metabolic patterns regarding water use of a productive system in Catalonia and a water management policy in Andarax River Basin in Andalusia.