Testing incremental politics : the case of North Sea oil

In the quest to secure the much vaunted benefits of North Sea oil, highly non-incremental technologies have been adopted. Nowhere is this more the case than with the early fields of the central and northern North Sea. By focusing on the inflexible nature of North Sea hardware, in such fields, this thesis examines the problems that this sort of technology might pose for policy making. More particularly, the following issues are raised. First, the implications of non-incremental technical change for the successful conduct of oil policy is raised. Here, the focus is on the micro-economic performance of the first generation of North Sea oil fields and the manner in which this relates to government policy. Secondly, the question is posed as to whether there were more flexible, perhaps more incremental policy alternatives open to the decision makers. Conclusions drawn relate to the degree to which non-incremental shifts in policy permit decision makers to achieve their objectives at relatively low cost. To discover cases where non-incremental policy making has led to success in this way, would be to falsify the thesis that decision makers are best served by employing incremental politics as an approach to complex problem solving.

The sedimentology and diagenesis of Lower Permian (Rotliegend) sediments: (onshore U.K. and southern North Sea). Available in 2 volumes.

The thesis provides a comparative study of both sedimentology and diagenesis of Lower Permian (Rotliegend) strata, onshore and offshore U.K. (Southern North Sea). Onshore formations studied include the Bridgnorth, Penrith and Hopeman Sandstone, and are dominated by aeolian facies, with lesser amounts of interbedded fluvial sediments. Aeolian and fluvial strata in onshore basins typically grade laterally into alluvial fan breccias at basin margins. Onshore basins represent proximal examples of Rotliegend desert sediments. The Leman Sandstone Formation of the Ravenspurn area in the Southern North Sea displays a variety of facies indicative of a distal sedimentological setting; Aeolian, fluvial, sabkha, and playa lake sediments all being present. "Sheet-like" geometry of stratigraphical units within the Leman Sandstone, and alternation of fluvial and aeolian deposition was climatically controlled. Major first order bounding surfaces are laterally extensive and were produced by lacustrine transgression and regression from the north-west. Diagenesis within Permian strata was studied using standard petrographic microscopy, scanning electron microscopy, cold cathodo-Iuminescence, X-ray diffraction clay analysis, X-ray fluorescence spectroscopy, fluid inclusion microthermometry, and K-Ar dating of illites. The diagenesis of Permian sediments within onshore basins is remarkably similar, and a paragenetic sequence of early haematite, illitic clays, feldspar, kaolinite, quartz and late calcite is observed. In the Leman Sandstone formation, authigenic mineralogy is complex and includes early quartz, sulphates and dolomite, chlorite, kaolinite, late quartz, illite and siderite. Primary lithological variation, facies type, and the interdigitation and location of facies within a basin are important initial controls upon diagenesis. Subsequently, burial history, structure, the timing of gas emplacement, and the nature of sediments within underlying formations may also exersize significant controls upon diagenesis within Rotliegend strata.

Glacial North Atlantic: Sea surface conditions reconstructed by GLAMAP 2000

The response of the tropical ocean to global climate change and the extent of sea ice in the glacial nordic seas belong to the great controversies in paleoclimatology. Our new reconstruction of peak glacial sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the Atlantic is based on census counts of planktic foraminifera, using the Maximum Similarity Technique Version 28 (SIMMAX-28) modern analog technique with 947 modern analog samples and 119 well-dated sediment cores. Our study compares two slightly different scenarios of the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM), the Environmental Processes of the Ice Age: Land, Oceans, Glaciers (EPILOG), and Glacial Atlantic Ocean Mapping (GLAMAP 2000) time slices. The comparison shows that the maximum LGM cooling in the Southern Hemisphere slightly preceeded that in the north. In both time slices sea ice was restricted to the north western margin of the nordic seas during glacial northern summer, while the central and eastern parts were ice-free. During northern glacial winter, sea ice advanced to the south of Iceland and Faeroe. In the central northern North Atlantic an anticyclonic gyre formed between 45° and 60°N, with a cool water mass centered west of Ireland, where glacial cooling reached a maximum of >12°C. In the subtropical ocean gyres the new reconstruction supports the glacial-to-interglacial stability of SST as shown by CLIMAP Project Members (CLIMAP) [1981]. The zonal belt of minimum SST seasonality between 2° and 6°N suggests that the LGM caloric equator occupied the same latitude as today. In contrast to the CLIMAP reconstruction, the glacial cooling of the tropical east Atlantic upwelling belt reached up to 6°-8°C during Northern Hemisphere summer. Differences between these SIMMAX-based and published U37[k]- and Mg/Ca-based equatorial SST records are ascribed to strong SST seasonalities and SST signals that were produced by different planktic species groups during different seasons.

First-year and second-year snow properties on sea ice in the Weddell Sea during POLARSTERN cruise ANT-XXII/2 (ISPOL) during the drift

Observations of snow properties, superimposed ice, and atmospheric heat fluxes have been performed on first-year and second-year sea ice in the western Weddell Sea, Antarctica. Snow in this region is particular as it does usually survive summer ablation. Measurements were performed during Ice Station Polarstern (ISPOL), a 5-week drift station of the German icebreaker RV Polarstern. Net heat flux to the snowpack was 8 W/m**2, causing only 0.1 to 0.2 m of thinning of both snow cover types, thinner first-year and thicker second-year snow. Snow thinning was dominated by compaction and evaporation, whereas melt was of minor importance and occurred only internally at or close to the surface. Characteristic differences between snow on first-year and second-year ice were found in snow thickness, temperature, and stratigraphy. Snow on second-year ice was thicker, colder, denser, and more layered than on first-year ice. Metamorphism and ablation, and thus mass balance, were similar between both regimes, because they depend more on surface heat fluxes and less on underground properties. Ice freeboard was mostly negative, but flooding occurred mainly on first-year ice. Snow and ice interface temperature did not reach the melting point during the observation period. Nevertheless, formation of discontinuous superimposed ice was observed. Color tracer experiments suggest considerable meltwater percolation within the snow, despite below-melting temperatures of lower layers. Strong meridional gradients of snow and sea-ice properties were found in this region. They suggest similar gradients in atmospheric and oceanographic conditions and implicate their importance for melt processes and the location of the summer ice edge.

Physical properties and age determination of sediment cores from the Hinlopen/Yermak Megaslide north of Spitsbergen, Arctic Ocean

Integrated interpretation of multi-beam bathymetric, sediment-penetrating acoustic (PARASOUND) and seismic data show a multiple slope failure on the northern European continental margin, north of Spitsbergen. The first slide event occurred during MIS 3 around 30 cal. ka BP and was characterised by highly dynamic and rapid evacuation of ca. 1250 km**3 of sediment from the lower to the upper part of the continental slope. During this event, headwalls up to 1600 m high were created and ca. 1150 km**3 material from hemi-pelagic sediments and from the lower pre-existing trough mouth fan has been entrained and transported into the semi-enclosed Sophia Basin. This megaslide event was followed by a secondary evacuation of material to the Nansen Basin by funnelling of the debris through the channel between Polarstern Seamount and the adjacent continental slope. The main slide debris is overlain by a set of fining-upward sequences as evidence for the associated suspension cloud and following minor failure events. Subsequent adjustment of the eastern headwalls led to failure of rather soft sediments and creation of smaller debris flows that followed the main slide surficial topography. Discharge of the Hinlopen ice stream during the Last Glacial Maximum and the following deglaciation draped the central headwalls and created a fan deposit of glacigenic debris flows.

Averaged sedimentation rates in the Northwest Pacific and Bering Sea during the first and the second oxygen isotope stages

Isotope chronostratigraphy of Upper Quaternary sediments from the Northwest Pacific and the Bering Sea was established by oxygen isotope records in planktonic and benthic foraminifera. The main regularities of temporal variations of calcium carbonate, organic carbon and opal contents, as well as of magnetic susceptibility in sediments of the study region with regard to climatic variations and productivity were established by means of isotopic-geochemical and lithophysical analyses of bottom sediments. Correlation of volcanogenic interbeds in the sediments was carried out, and their stratigraphy and age were preliminarily ascertained. Correlation was accomplished of A.P. Jouse diatom horizons determined by an analysis of the main ecological variations in diatom assemblages in Upper Quaternary sediments of the Northwest Pacific, Bering and Okhotsk Seas, and their comparison with similar variations in sediment cores with standard oxygen isotope stages. Also variations in lithology and contents of biogenic components in sediments of the region and in the cores were taken into account. A ratio of abundance of "neritic" species to the sum of "neritic" and oceanic species abundance (coefficient Id) can be a criterion of ecological changes of diatom assemblages in the studied region. It is determined by climate variability and mostly by sea ice influence. Schemes of average sedimentation rates in the Northwest Pacific and Bering Sea for periods of the first and the second oxygen isotope stages (12.5-1 and 24-12.5 ka, respectively) were plotted on the basis of obtained results and correlation of diatom horizons and lithological units in early studied cores with the oxygen isotope stages. Closure of the Bering Strait and aeration of the north-eastern shelf of the Bering Sea during the second stage induced increase of sedimentation rates in the Bering Sea, as compared with the first stage, and suspended material transport from the Bering Sea through the Kamchatka Strait into the Northwest Pacific and its accumulation in the southeast direction.

Chemical composition of <0.001 mm grain size fractions of bottom sediments and cementing mass of basalt breccia from the North Atlantic

A comprehensive study of 102 samples of grain size fractions 0.010-0.005; 0.005-0.001, and <0.001 mm showns that clay mineral compositions from bottom sediments of the Faroe-Iceland Threshold and Faroe-Shetland Trench are different. In the first case it is essentially smectite-chlorite, in the second - mainly hydromicaceous. The difference in composition of clay minerals is due to influence of different source areas of terrigenous material.

Circumpolar dataset of Soil Organic Carbon north of treeline derived from ENVISAT ASAR GM, link to GeoTIFF

A new approach for the estimation of soil organic carbon (SOC) pools north of the tree line has been developed based on synthetic aperture radar (SAR; ENVISAT Advanced SAR Global Monitoring mode) data. SOC values are directly determined from backscatter values instead of upscaling using land cover or soil classes. The multi-mode capability of SAR allows application across scales. It can be shown that measurements in C band under frozen conditions represent vegetation and surface structure properties which relate to soil properties, specifically SOC. It is estimated that at least 29 Pg C is stored in the upper 30 cm of soils north of the tree line. This is approximately 25 % less than stocks derived from the soil-map-based Northern Circumpolar Soil Carbon Database (NCSCD). The total stored carbon is underestimated since the established empirical relationship is not valid for peatlands or strongly cryoturbated soils. The approach does, however, provide the first spatially consistent account of soil organic carbon across the Arctic. Furthermore, it could be shown that values obtained from 1 km resolution SAR correspond to accounts based on a high spatial resolution (2 m) land cover map over a study area of about 7 × 7 km in NE Siberia. The approach can be also potentially transferred to medium-resolution C-band SAR data such as ENVISAT ASAR Wide Swath with ~120 m resolution but it is in general limited to regions without woody vegetation. Global Monitoring-mode-derived SOC increases with unfrozen period length. This indicates the importance of this parameter for modelling of the spatial distribution of soil organic carbon storage.

Causes of Childhood Blindness in North Ghana: Results From a School for the Blind in Wa, Upper West Region

Background: Because most developing countries lack sufficient resources and infrastructure to conduct population-based studies on childhood blindness, it can be difficult to obtain epidemiologically reliable data available for planning public health strategies to effectively address the major determinants of childhood blindness. The major etiologies of blindness can differ regionally and intra-regionally. The objective of this retrospective study was to determine (1) the major causes of childhood blindness (BL) and severe visual impairment (SVI) in students who attend Wa Methodist School for the Blind in Upper West Region, North Ghana, and (2) any potential temporal trends in the causes of blindness for this region.

Methods: In this retrospective study, demographic data and clinical information from an eye screening at Wa Methodist School for the Blind were coded according to the World Health Organization/Prevention of Blindness standardized reporting methodology. Causes of BL and SVI were categorized anatomically and etiologically. We determined the major causes of BL/SVI over time using information provided about the age at onset of visual loss for each student.

Results: The major anatomical causes of BL/SVI among the 190 students screened were corneal opacity and phthisis bulbi (n=28, 15%), optic atrophy (n=23, 13%), glaucoma (n=18, 9%), microphthalmos (n=18, 9%), and cataract (n=18, 9%). Within the first year of life, students became blind mainly due to whole globe causes (n=23, 26%), cataract (n=15, 17%), and optic atrophy (n=11, 13%). Those who became blind after age one year had whole globe causes (n=26, 26%), corneal opacity (n=24, 24%), and optic atrophy (n=13, 13%).

Conclusion: At the Wa Methodist School for the Blind, the major anatomical causes of BL/SVI were corneal opacity and phthisis bulbi. About half of all students became blind within the first year of life, and were disproportionately affected by cataract and retinal causes in comparison to the other students who became blind after age one year. While research in blind schools has a number of implicit disadvantages and limitations, considering the temporal trends and other epidemiological factors of blindness may increase the usefulness and/or implications of the data that come from blind school studies in order to improve screening methods for newborns in hospitals and primary care centers, and to help tailor preventative and treatment programs to reduce avoidable childhood blindness in neonates and schoolchildren.

Mapping of C4 plant input from North West Africa into North East Atlantic sediments

Mapping the abundance of 13C in leaf-wax components in surface sediments recovered from the seafloor off northwest Africa (0-35°N) reveals a clear pattern of delta13C distribution, indicating systematic changes in the proportions of terrestrial C3 and C4 plant input. At 20°N latitude, we find that isotopically enriched products characteristic of C4 plants account for more than 50% of the terrigenous inputs. This signal extends westward beneath the path of the dust-laden Sahara Air Layer (SAL). High C4 contributions, apparently carried by January trade winds, also extend far into the Gulf of Guinea. Similar distributions are obtained if summed pollen counts for the Chenopodiaceae-Amaranthaceae and the Poaceae are used as an independent C4 proxy. We conclude that the specificity of the latitudinal distribution of vegetation in North West Africa and the pathways of the wind systems (trade winds and SAL) are responsible for the observed isotopic patterns observed in the surface sediments. Molecular-isotopic maps on the marine-sedimentary time horizons (e.g., during the last glacial maximum) are thus a robust tool for assessing the phytogeographic changes on the tropical and sub-tropical continents, which have important implications for the changes in climatic and atmospheric conditions.

Variability of marine climate on the North Icelandic Shelf in a 1357-year proxy archive based on growth increments in the bivalve Arctica islandica

A multicentennial and absolutely-dated shell-based chronology for the marine environment of the North Icelandic Shelf has been constructed using annual growth increments in the shell of the long-lived bivalve clam Arctica islandica. The region from which the shells were collected is close to the North Atlantic Polar Front and is highly sensitive to the varying influences of Atlantic and Arctic water masses. A strong common environmental signal is apparent in the increment widths, and although the correlations between the growth increment indices and regional sea surface temperatures are significant at the 95% confidence level, they are low (r ~ 0.2), indicating that a more complex combination of environmental forcings is driving growth. Remarkable longevities of individual animals are apparent in the increment-width series used in the chronology, with several animals having lifetimes in excess of 300 years and one, at 507 years, being the longest-lived non-colonial animal so far reported whose age at death can be accurately determined. The sample depth is at least three shells after AD 1175, and the time series has been extended back to AD 649 with a sample depth of one or two by the addition of two further series, thus providing a 1357-year archive of dated shell material. The statistical and spectral characteristics of the chronology are investigated by using two different methods of removing the age-related trend in shell growth. Comparison with other proxy archives from the same region reveals several similarities in variability on multidecadal timescales, particularly during the period surrounding the transition from the Medieval Climate Anomaly to the Little Ice Age.