Parameterized Link Functions in Generalized Linear Random Effect Models: a Case Study on Breast Cancer Treatment

In non-linear random effects some attention has been very recently devoted to the analysis ofsuitable transformation of the response variables separately (Taylor 1996) or not (Oberg and Davidian 2000) from the transformations of the covariates and, as far as we know, no investigation has been carried out on the choice of link function in such models. In our study we consider the use of a random effect model when a parameterized family of links (Aranda-Ordaz 1981, Prentice 1996, Pregibon 1980, Stukel 1988 and Czado 1997) is introduced. We point out the advantages and the drawbacks associated with the choice of this data-driven kind of modeling. Difficulties in the interpretation of regression parameters, and therefore in understanding the influence of covariates, as well as problems related to loss of efficiency of estimates and overfitting, are discussed. A case study on radiotherapy usage in breast cancer treatment is discussed.

On the Lp-Norm Regression Models for Estimating Value-at-Risk

Analysis of risk measures associated with price series data movements and its predictions are of strategic importance in the financial markets as well as to policy makers in particular for short- and longterm planning for setting up economic growth targets. For example, oilprice risk-management focuses primarily on when and how an organization can best prevent the costly exposure to price risk. Value-at-Risk (VaR) is the commonly practised instrument to measure risk and is evaluated by analysing the negative/positive tail of the probability distributions of the returns (profit or loss). In modelling applications, least-squares estimation (LSE)-based linear regression models are often employed for modeling and analyzing correlated data. These linear models are optimal and perform relatively well under conditions such as errors following normal or approximately normal distributions, being free of large size outliers and satisfying the Gauss-Markov assumptions. However, often in practical situations, the LSE-based linear regression models fail to provide optimal results, for instance, in non-Gaussian situations especially when the errors follow distributions with fat tails and error terms possess a finite variance. This is the situation in case of risk analysis which involves analyzing tail distributions. Thus, applications of the LSE-based regression models may be questioned for appropriateness and may have limited applicability. We have carried out the risk analysis of Iranian crude oil price data based on the Lp-norm regression models and have noted that the LSE-based models do not always perform the best. We discuss results from the L1, L2 and L∞-norm based linear regression models. ACM Computing Classification System (1998): B.1.2, F.1.3, F.2.3, G.3, J.2.

Estimation of average annual daily traffic (AADT) using geographically weighted regression (GWR) method and geographic information system (GIS)

Annual average daily traffic (AADT) is important information for many transportation planning, design, operation, and maintenance activities, as well as for the allocation of highway funds. Many studies have attempted AADT estimation using factor approach, regression analysis, time series, and artificial neural networks. However, these methods are unable to account for spatially variable influence of independent variables on the dependent variable even though it is well known that to many transportation problems, including AADT estimation, spatial context is important. ^ In this study, applications of geographically weighted regression (GWR) methods to estimating AADT were investigated. The GWR based methods considered the influence of correlations among the variables over space and the spatially non-stationarity of the variables. A GWR model allows different relationships between the dependent and independent variables to exist at different points in space. In other words, model parameters vary from location to location and the locally linear regression parameters at a point are affected more by observations near that point than observations further away. ^ The study area was Broward County, Florida. Broward County lies on the Atlantic coast between Palm Beach and Miami-Dade counties. In this study, a total of 67 variables were considered as potential AADT predictors, and six variables (lanes, speed, regional accessibility, direct access, density of roadway length, and density of seasonal household) were selected to develop the models. ^ To investigate the predictive powers of various AADT predictors over the space, the statistics including local r-square, local parameter estimates, and local errors were examined and mapped. The local variations in relationships among parameters were investigated, measured, and mapped to assess the usefulness of GWR methods. ^ The results indicated that the GWR models were able to better explain the variation in the data and to predict AADT with smaller errors than the ordinary linear regression models for the same dataset. Additionally, GWR was able to model the spatial non-stationarity in the data, i.e., the spatially varying relationship between AADT and predictors, which cannot be modeled in ordinary linear regression. ^

Graduate program culture and intention to persist: Working adults in cohort and non-cohort programs

Cohort programs have been instituted at many universities to accommodate the growing number of mature adult graduate students who pursue degrees while maintaining multiple commitments such as work and family. While it is estimated that as many as 40–60% of students who begin graduate study fail to complete degrees, it is thought that attrition may be even higher for this population of students. Yet, little is known about the impact of cohorts on the learning environment and whether cohort programs affect graduate student retention. Retention theory stresses the importance of the academic department, quality of faculty-student relationships and student involvement in the life of the academic community as critical determinants in students' decisions to persist to degree completion. However, students who are employed full-time typically spend little time on campus engaged in the learning environment. Using academic and social integration theory, this study examined the experiences of working adult graduate students enrolled in cohort (CEP) and non-cohort (non-CEP) programs and the influence of these experiences on intention to persist. The Graduate Program Context Questionnaire was administered to graduate students (N = 310) to examine measures of academic and social integration and intention to persist. Sample t tests and ANOVAs were conducted to determine whether differences in perceptions could be identified between cohort and non-cohort students. Multiple linear regression was used to identify variables that predict students' intention to persist. While there were many similarities, significant differences were found between CEP and non-CEP student groups on two measures. CEP students rated peer-student relationships higher and scored higher on the intention to persist measure than non-CEP students. The psychological integration measure, however, was the strongest predictor of intention to persist for both the CEP and non-CEP groups. This study supports the research literature which suggests that CEP programs encourage the development of peer-student relationships and promote students' commitment to persistence.

Imputing accelerometer non-wear time when assessing children's moderate-to-vigorous physical activity

BACKGROUND: Moderate-to-vigorous physical activity (MVPA) is an important determinant of children’s physical health, and is commonly measured using accelerometers. A major limitation of accelerometers is non-wear time, which is the time the participant did not wear their device. Given that non-wear time is traditionally discarded from the dataset prior to estimating MVPA, final estimates of MVPA may be biased. Therefore, alternate approaches should be explored. OBJECTIVES: The objectives of this thesis were to 1) develop and describe an imputation approach that uses the socio-demographic, time, health, and behavioural data from participants to replace non-wear time accelerometer data, 2) determine the extent to which imputation of non-wear time data influences estimates of MVPA, and 3) determine if imputation of non-wear time data influences the associations between MVPA, body mass index (BMI), and systolic blood pressure (SBP). METHODS: Seven days of accelerometer data were collected using Actical accelerometers from 332 children aged 10-13. Three methods for handling missing accelerometer data were compared: 1) the “non-imputed” method wherein non-wear time was deleted from the dataset, 2) imputation dataset I, wherein the imputation of MVPA during non-wear time was based upon socio-demographic factors of the participant (e.g., age), health information (e.g., BMI), and time characteristics of the non-wear period (e.g., season), and 3) imputation dataset II wherein the imputation of MVPA was based upon the same variables as imputation dataset I, plus organized sport information. Associations between MVPA and health outcomes in each method were assessed using linear regression. RESULTS: Non-wear time accounted for 7.5% of epochs during waking hours. The average minutes/day of MVPA was 56.8 (95% CI: 54.2, 59.5) in the non-imputed dataset, 58.4 (95% CI: 55.8, 61.0) in imputed dataset I, and 59.0 (95% CI: 56.3, 61.5) in imputed dataset II. Estimates between datasets were not significantly different. The strength of the relationship between MVPA with BMI and SBP were comparable between all three datasets. CONCLUSION: These findings suggest that studies that achieve high accelerometer compliance with unsystematic patterns of missing data can use the traditional approach of deleting non-wear time from the dataset to obtain MVPA measures without substantial bias.

Molecular docking and geographical information systems as tools to assess the potential impact of veterinary medicines on non-target organisms and the environment

Veterinary medicines (VMs) from agricultural industry can enter the environment in a number of ways. This includes direct exposure through aquaculture, accidental spillage and disposal, and indirect entry by leaching from manure or runoff after treatment. Many compounds used in animal treatments have ecotoxic properties that may have chronic or sometimes lethal effects when they come into contact with non-target organisms. VMs enter the environment in mixtures, potentially having additive effects. Traditional ecotoxicology tests are used to determine the lethal and sometimes reproductive effects on freshwater and terrestrial organisms. However, organisms used in ecotoxicology tests can be unrepresentative of the populations that are likely to be exposed to the compound in the environment. Most often the tests are on single compound toxicity but mixture effects may be significant and should be included in ecotoxicology testing. This work investigates the use, measured environmental concentrations (MECs) and potential impact of sea lice treatments on salmon farms in Scotland. Alternative methods for ecotoxicology testing including mixture toxicity, and the use of in silico techniques to predict the chronic impact of VMs on different species of aquatic organisms were also investigated. The Scottish Environmental Protection Agency (SEPA) provided information on the use of five sea lice treatments from 2008-2011 on Scottish salmon farms. This information was combined with the recently available data on sediment MECs for the years 2009-2012 provided by SEPA using ArcGIS 10.1. In depth analysis of this data showed that from a total of 55 sites, 30 sites had a MEC higher than the maximum allowable concentration (MAC) as set out by SEPA for emamectin benzoate and 7 sites had a higher MEC than MAC for teflubenzuron. A number of sites that were up to 16 km away from the nearest salmon farm reported as using either emamectin benzoate or teflubenzuron measured positive for the two treatments. There was no relationship between current direction and the distribution of the sea lice treatments, nor was there any evidence for alternative sources of the compounds e.g. land treatments. The sites that had MECs higher than the MAC could pose a risk to non-target organisms and disrupt the species dynamics of the area. There was evidence that some marine protected sites might be at risk of exposure to these compounds. To complement this work, effects on acute mixture toxicity of the 5 sea lice treatments, plus one major metabolite 3-phenoxybenzoic acid (3PBA), were measured using an assay using the bioluminescent bacteria Aliivibrio fischeri. When exposed to the 5 sea lice treatments and 3PBA A. fischeri showed a response to 3PBA, emamectin benzoate and azamethiphos as well as combinations of the three. In order to establish any additive effect of the sea lice treatments, the efficacy of two mixture prediction equations, concentration addition (CA) and independent action ii(IA) were tested using the results from single compound dose response curves. In this instance IA was the more effective prediction method with a linear regression confidence interval of 82.6% compared with 22.6% of CA. In silico molecular docking was carried out to predict the chronic effects of 15 VMs (including the five used as sea lice control). Molecular docking has been proposed as an alternative screening method for the chronic effects of large animal treatments on non-target organisms. Oestrogen receptor alpha (ERα) of 7 non-target bony fish and the African clawed frog Xenopus laevis were modelled using SwissModel. These models were then ‘docked’ to oestradiol, the synthetic oestrogen ethinylestradiol, two known xenoestrogens dichlorodiphenyltrichloroethane (DDT) and bisphenol A (BPA), the antioestrogen breast cancer treatment tamoxifen and 15 VMs using Auto Dock 4. Based on the results of this work, four VMs were identified as being possible xenoestrogens or anti-oestrogens; these were cypermethrin, deltamethrin, fenbendazole and teflubenzuron. Further investigation, using in vitro assays, into these four VMs has been suggested as future work. A modified recombinant yeast oestrogen screen (YES) was attempted using the cDNA of the ERα of the zebrafish Danio rerio and the rainbow trout Oncorhynchus mykiss. Due to time and difficulties in cloning protocols this work was unable to be completed. Use of such in vitro assays would allow for further investigation of the highlighted VMs into their oestrogenic potential. In conclusion, VMs used as sea lice treatments, such as teflubenzuron and emamectin benzoate may be more persistent and have a wider range in the environment than previously thought. Mixtures of sea lice treatments have been found to persist together in the environment, and effects of these mixtures on the bacteria A. fischeri can be predicted using the IA equation. Finally, molecular docking may be a suitable tool to predict chronic endocrine disrupting effects and identify varying degrees of impact on the ERα of nine species of aquatic organisms.

Optimization of the Ion Source-Mass Spectrometry Parameters in Non-Steroidal Anti-Inflammatory and Analgesic Pharmaceuticals Analysis by a Design of Experiments Approach

The flow rates of drying and nebulizing gas, heat block and desolvation line temperatures and interface voltage are potential electrospray ionization parameters as they may enhance sensitivity of the mass spectrometer. The conditions that give higher sensitivity of 13 pharmaceuticals were explored. First, Plackett-Burman design was implemented to screen significant factors, and it was concluded that interface voltage and nebulizing gas flow were the only factors that influence the intensity signal for all pharmaceuticals. This fractionated factorial design was projected to set a full 2(2) factorial design with center points. The lack-of-fit test proved to be significant. Then, a central composite face-centered design was conducted. Finally, a stepwise multiple linear regression and subsequently an optimization problem solving were carried out. Two main drug clusters were found concerning the signal intensities of all runs of the augmented factorial design. p-Aminophenol, salicylic acid, and nimesulide constitute one cluster as a result of showing much higher sensitivity than the remaining drugs. The other cluster is more homogeneous with some sub-clusters comprising one pharmaceutical and its respective metabolite. It was observed that instrumental signal increased when both significant factors increased with maximum signal occurring when both codified factors are set at level +1. It was also found that, for most of the pharmaceuticals, interface voltage influences the intensity of the instrument more than the nebulizing gas flowrate. The only exceptions refer to nimesulide where the relative importance of the factors is reversed and still salicylic acid where both factors equally influence the instrumental signal. Graphical Abstract ᅟ.

The big four skills: Teachers’ assumptions on measurement of non-native students cognition

The four-skills on tests for young native speakers commonly do not generate correlation incongruency concerning the cognitive strategies frequently reported. Considering the non-native speakers there are parse evidence to determine which tasks are important to assess properly the cognitive and academic language proficiency (Cummins, 1980; 2012). Research questions: It is of high probability that young students with origin in immigration significantly differ on their communication strategies and skills in a second language processing context (1); attached to this first assumption, it is supposed that teachers significantly differ depending on their scientific area and previous training (2). Purpose: This study intends to examine whether school teachers (K-12) as having different origin in scientific domain of teaching and training perceive differently an adapted four-skills scale, in European Portuguese. Research methods: 77 teachers of five areas scientific areas, mean of teaching year service = 32 (SD= 2,7), 57 males and 46 females (from basic and high school levels). Main findings: ANOVA (Effect size and Post-hoc Tukey tests) and linear regression analysis (stepwise method) revealed statistically significant differences among teachers of different areas, mainly between language teachers and science teachers. Language teachers perceive more accurately tasks in a multiple manner to the broad skills that require to be measured in non-native students. Conclusion: If teachers perceive differently the importance of the big-four tasks, there would be incongruence on skills measurement that teachers select for immigrant puppils. Non-balanced tasks and the teachers’ perceptions on evaluation and toward competence of students would likely determine limitations for academic and cognitive development of non-native students. Furthermore, results showed sufficient evidence to conclude that tasks are perceived differently by teachers toward importance of specific skills subareas. Reading skills are best considered compared to oral comphreension skills in non-native students.

Exploratory Study Of The Effect Of Lifestyle Counselling On Bone Mineral Density And Body Composition In Users Of The Contraceptive Depot-medroxyprogesterone Acetate.

To compare variations in bone mineral density (BMD) and body composition (BC) in depot-medroxyprogesterone acetate (DMPA) users and nonusers after providing counselling on healthy lifestyle habits. An exploratory study in which women aged 18 to 40 years participated: 29 new DMPA users and 25 new non-hormonal contraceptive users. All participants were advised on healthy lifestyle habits: sun exposure, walking and calcium intake. BMD and BC were assessed at baseline and 12 months later. Statistical analysis included the Mann-Whitney test or Student's t-test followed by multiple linear regression analysis. Compared to the controls, DMPA users had lower BMD at vertebrae L1 and L4 after 12 months of use. They also had a mean increase of 2 kg in total fat mass and an increase of 2.2% in body fat compared to the non-hormonal contraceptive users. BMD loss at L1 was less pronounced in DMPA users with a calcium intake ≥ 1 g/day compared to DMPA users with a lower calcium intake. DMPA use was apparently associated with lower BMD and an increase in fat mass at 12 months of use. Calcium intake ≥ 1 g/day attenuates BMD loss in DMPA users. Counselling on healthy lifestyle habits failed to achieve its aims.

Estatística aplicada à química: dez dúvidas comuns

Ten common doubts of chemistry students and professionals about their statistical applications are discussed. The use of the N-1 denominator instead of N is described for the standard deviation. The statistical meaning of the denominators of the root mean square error of calibration (RMSEC) and root mean square error of validation (RMSEV) are given for researchers using multivariate calibration methods. The reason why scientists and engineers use the average instead of the median is explained. Several problematic aspects about regression and correlation are treated. The popular use of triplicate experiments in teaching and research laboratories is seen to have its origin in statistical confidence intervals. Nonparametric statistics and bootstrapping methods round out the discussion.

Influência da idade no comportamento da frequência cardíaca na transição repouso-exercício: uma análise por deltas e regressão linear

BACKGROUND: Changes in heart rate during rest-exercise transition can be characterized by the application of mathematical calculations, such as deltas 0-10 and 0-30 seconds to infer on the parasympathetic nervous system and linear regression and delta applied to data range from 60 to 240 seconds to infer on the sympathetic nervous system. The objective of this study was to test the hypothesis that young and middle-aged subjects have different heart rate responses in exercise of moderate and intense intensity, with different mathematical calculations. METHODS: Seven middle-aged men and ten young men apparently healthy were subject to constant load tests (intense and moderate) in cycle ergometer. The heart rate data were submitted to analysis of deltas (0-10, 0-30 and 60-240 seconds) and simple linear regression (60-240 seconds). The parameters obtained from simple linear regression analysis were: intercept and slope angle. We used the Shapiro-Wilk test to check the distribution of data and the t test for unpaired comparisons between groups. The level of statistical significance was 5%. RESULTS: The value of the intercept and delta 0-10 seconds was lower in middle age in two loads tested and the inclination angle was lower in moderate exercise in middle age. CONCLUSION: The young subjects present greater magnitude of vagal withdrawal in the initial stage of the HR response during constant load exercise and higher speed of adjustment of sympathetic response in moderate exercise.

Determinação da velolcidade critica como referencia do limiar anaerobio para o nado costas

Universidade Estadual de Campinas . Faculdade de Educação Física

Ressonância não linear de uma bússola em campos magnéticos

Fenômenos oscilatórios e ressonantes são explorados em vários cursos experimentais de física. Em geral os experimentos são interpretados no limite de pequenas oscilações e campos uniformes. Neste artigo descrevemos um experimento de baixo custo para o estudo da ressonância em campo magnético da agulha de uma bússola fora dos limites acima. Nesse caso, termos não lineares na equação diferencial são responsáveis por fenômenos interessantes de serem explorados em laboratórios didáticos.

Aquisição de açúcar e perfil de macronutrientes na cesta de alimentos adquirida pelas famílias brasileiras (2002-2003)

Avaliou-se a influência exercida pela aquisição de calorias de açúcar sobre a participação calórica dos demais macronutrientes da dieta. As estimativas deste estudo são baseadas em dados da Pesquisa de Orçamentos Familiares realizada no Brasil pelo Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística entre julho de 2002 e junho de 2003. Modelos de regressão linear múltiplos foram utilizados para estudar a influência das calorias de açúcar sobre a participação calórica de cada um dos macronutrientes na aquisição domiciliar de alimentos com o controle do valor calórico total da aquisição de alimentos e variáveis sócio-demográficas. Cada caloria adquirida de açúcar eleva em 0,3 caloria a participação de gorduras na aquisição domiciliar de alimentos e diminui em 0,07 a participação de proteínas. Cada caloria de açúcar procedente de alimentos processados aumenta em 1,6 caloria a participação de gorduras e em 0,4 caloria de ácidos graxos saturados e diminui em 0,8 caloria a participação de outros carboidratos que não o açúcar. Os resultados encontrados trazem novas evidências sobre o papel prejudicial do açúcar à saúde humana.

Explaining sleep duration in adolescents: the impact of socio-demographic and lifestyle factors and working status

Previous studies found students who both work and attend school undergo a partial sleep deprivation that accumulates across the week. The aim of the present study was to obtain information using a questionnaire on a number of variables (e.g., socio-demographics, lifestyle, work timing, and sleep-wake habits) considered to impact on sleep duration of working (n=51) and non-working (n=41) high-school students aged 14-21 yrs old attending evening classes (19:00-22:30 h) at a public school in the city of So Paulo, Brazil. Data were collected for working days and days off. Multiple linear regression analyses were performed to assess the factors associated with sleep duration on weekdays and weekends. Work, sex, age, smoking, consumption of alcohol and caffeine, and physical activity were considered control variables. Significant predictors of sleep duration were: work (p < 0.01), daily work duration (8-10 h/day; p < 0.01), sex (p=0.04), age 18-21 yrs (0.01), smoking (p=0.02) and drinking habits (p=0.03), irregular physical exercise (p < 0.01), ease of falling asleep (p=0.04), and the sleep-wake cycle variables of napping (p < 0.01), nocturnal awakenings (p < 0.01), and mid-sleep regularity (p < 0.01). The results confirm the hypotheses that young students who work and attend school showed a reduction in night-time sleep duration. Sleep deprivation across the week, particularly in students working 8-10 h/day, is manifested through a sleep rebound (i.e., extended sleep duration) on Saturdays. However, the different roles played by socio-demographic and lifestyle variables have proven to be factors that intervene with nocturnal sleep duration. ) The variables related to the sleep-wake cycle naps and night awakenings proved to be associated with a slight reduction in night-time sleep, while regularity in sleep and wake-up schedules was shown to be associated with more extended sleep duration, with a distinct expression along the week and the weekend. Having to attend school and work, coupled with other socio-demographic and lifestyle factors, creates an unfavorable scenario for satisfactory sleep duration