Large Time-Varying Parameter VARs

In this paper we develop methods for estimation and forecasting in large timevarying parameter vector autoregressive models (TVP-VARs). To overcome computational constraints with likelihood-based estimation of large systems, we rely on Kalman filter estimation with forgetting factors. We also draw on ideas from the dynamic model averaging literature and extend the TVP-VAR so that its dimension can change over time. A final extension lies in the development of a new method for estimating, in a time-varying manner, the parameter(s) of the shrinkage priors commonly-used with large VARs. These extensions are operationalized through the use of forgetting factor methods and are, thus, computationally simple. An empirical application involving forecasting inflation, real output, and interest rates demonstrates the feasibility and usefulness of our approach.

Increasing respiratory dead space improves sleep disordered breathing and hypoxemia in patients with chronic mountain sickness

Background: Chronic mountain sickness (CMS), which is characterised by hypoxemia, erythrocytosis and pulmonary hypertension, is a major public health problem in high-altitude dwellers. The only existing treatment is descent to low altitude, an option that for social reasons almost never exists. Sleep disordered breathing may represent an underlying mechanism. We recently found that in mountaineers increasing the respiratory dead space markedly improves sleep disordered breathing. The aim of the present study was to assess the effects of this procedure on sleep disordered breathing in patients with CMS. Methods: In 10 male Bolivian high-altitude dwellers (mean ± SD age, 59 ± 9 y) suffering from CMS (haemoglobin >20 g/L) full night sleep recordings (Embletta, RespMed) were obtained in La Paz (3600 m). In random order, one night was spent with a 500 ml increase in dead space through a custom designed full face mask and the other night without it. Exclusion criteria were: secondary erythrocytosis, smoking, drug intake, acute infection, cardio- pulmonary or neurologic disease and travelling to low altitude in the preceding 6 months. Results: The major new finding was that added dead space dramatically improved sleep disordered breathing in patients suffering from CMS. The apnea/hypopnea index decreased by >50% (from 34.5 ± 25.0 to 16.8 ± 14.9, P = 0.003), the oxygen desaturation index decreased from 46.2 ± 23.0 to 27.2 ± 20.0 (P = 0.0004) and hypopnea index from 28.8 ± 20.9 to 16.3 ± 14.0 (P = 0.01), whereas nocturnal oxygen saturation increased from 79.8 ± 3.6 to 80.9 ± 3.0% (P = 0.009). The procedure was easily accepted and well tolerated. Conclusion: Here, we show for the very first time that an increase in respiratory dead space through a fitted mask dramatically improves nocturnal breathing in high-altitude dwellers suffering from CMS. We speculate that when used in the long-term, this procedure will improve erythrocytosis and pulmonary hypertension and offer an inexpensive and easily implementable treatment for this major public health problem.

A New Index of Financial Conditions

We use factor augmented vector autoregressive models with time-varying coefficients to construct a financial conditions index. The time-variation in the parameters allows for the weights attached to each financial variable in the index to evolve over time. Furthermore, we develop methods for dynamic model averaging or selection which allow the financial variables entering into the FCI to change over time. We discuss why such extensions of the existing literature are important and show them to be so in an empirical application involving a wide range of financial variables.

Prior selection for panel vector autoregressions

There is a vast literature that specifies Bayesian shrinkage priors for vector autoregressions (VARs) of possibly large dimensions. In this paper I argue that many of these priors are not appropriate for multi-country settings, which motivates me to develop priors for panel VARs (PVARs). The parametric and semi-parametric priors I suggest not only perform valuable shrinkage in large dimensions, but also allow for soft clustering of variables or countries which are homogeneous. I discuss the implications of these new priors for modelling interdependencies and heterogeneities among different countries in a panel VAR setting. Monte Carlo evidence and an empirical forecasting exercise show clear and important gains of the new priors compared to existing popular priors for VARs and PVARs.

Learning-induced plasticity in human audition: Objects, time, and space.

The human auditory system is comprised of specialized but interacting anatomic and functional pathways encoding object, spatial, and temporal information. We review how learning-induced plasticity manifests along these pathways and to what extent there are common mechanisms subserving such plasticity. A first series of experiments establishes a temporal hierarchy along which sounds of objects are discriminated along basic to fine-grained categorical boundaries and learned representations. A widespread network of temporal and (pre)frontal brain regions contributes to object discrimination via recursive processing. Learning-induced plasticity typically manifested as repetition suppression within a common set of brain regions. A second series considered how the temporal sequence of sound sources is represented. We show that lateralized responsiveness during the initial encoding phase of pairs of auditory spatial stimuli is critical for their accurate ordered perception. Finally, we consider how spatial representations are formed and modified through training-induced learning. A population-based model of spatial processing is supported wherein temporal and parietal structures interact in the encoding of relative and absolute spatial information over the initial ∼300ms post-stimulus onset. Collectively, these data provide insights into the functional organization of human audition and open directions for new developments in targeted diagnostic and neurorehabilitation strategies.

A new filaria of a lizard transmitted by sandflies

A description is given of Madathamugadia wanjii n. sp., a Splendidofilariinae parasite of the gecko Ptyodactylus hasselquistii, on the west bank of the River Jordan and of its life cycle in Phlebotomus duboscqi. The new species is close to M. ivaschkini (Annaev, 1976) n. comb., of Turkmenistan, wich is also transmitted by sandflies (Reznik, 1982). The genus Madathamugadia is now comprised of four species, two from Madagascar and two from the Mediterranean sub-region; it differs from the genus Thamugadia by the presence of a double row of papillae anterior to the cloaca of the male. The larval characters of Splendidofilarinae of lizards confirm the affinity of these parasites to the Splendidofilarinae of birds (Chandlerella and Splendidofilaria); the first group could have arisen from the second by "captures" wich could have occurred in several places.

New concepts for the design of dermal substitutes

Objectives: Skin can be partially regenerated after full thickness defects by collagen matrices, In this study, we identified the main limitations of induced regeneration aiming to improve the design of dermal matrices. Methods: Single mice received a 1 cm2, full thickness skin wound on the dorsum, which were grafted with collagen-GAG matrices or left ungrafted. The healing modulation induced by the collagen-GAG matrices was compared to spontaneous healing and to custom designed, bioactive, poly-N-Acetyl- Glucosamine (NAG) matrices. Wound staging was based on macroscopic, histological and immunhistochemical analysis on days 3, 7, 10 and 21 post wounding. Results: Cell density was higher in spontaneously granulating wounds compared to grafted wounds. While grafted wounds exhibited increased levels of cell proliferation on days 7 and 10, vascularity was dramatically reduced. NAG scaffolds accelerated both angiogenesis and wound re-epithelialization. Conclusions: Since slow integration and revascularization severely limit the engraftment of clinically used dermal scaffolds, the design of dermal matrices using bioactive materials represent the next step in skin regeneration.

A new function of the Fas-FasL pathway in macrophage activation.

Upon infection with the protozoan parasite Leishmania major, susceptible BALB/c mice develop unhealing lesions associated with the maturation of CD4(+)Th2 cells secreting IL-4. In contrast, resistant C57BL/6 mice heal their lesions, because of expansion and secretion of IFN-gamma of CD4(+) Th1 cells. The Fas-FasL pathway, although not involved in Th cell differentiation, was reported to be necessary for complete resolution of lesions. We investigate here the role of IFN-gamma and IL-4 on Fas-FasL nonapoptotic signaling events leading to the modulation of macrophage activation. We show that addition of FasL and IFN-gamma to BMMø led to their increased activation, as reflected by enhanced secretion of TNF, IL-6, NO, and the induction of their microbicidal activity, resulting in the killing of intracellular L. major. In contrast, the presence of IL-4 decreased the synergy of IFN-gamma/FasL significantly on macrophage activation and the killing of intracellular L. major. These results show that FasL synergizes with IFN-gamma to activate macrophages and that the tight regulation by IFN-gamma and/or IL-4 of the nonapoptotic signaling events triggered by the Fas-FasL pathway affects significantly the activation of macrophages to a microbicidal state and may thus contribute to the pathogenesis of L. major infection.

The Potential for Dispersal of Onchocerciasis in Ecuador in Relation to the Distribution of the Vector Simulium exiguum (Diptera:Simuliidae)

The future dispersal of onchocerciasis in Ecuador is dependent on the distribution of cytotypes of the vector species complex Simulium exiguum. Over the last 14 years, collections of larvae have been made from over 25 rivers, between 80-1600 m altitude, from various sites on both sides of the Andes. Analysis of larval polytene chromosomes was used to determine the distributions of each cytotype. On the western side of the Andes, the Cayapa cytotype (the only cytotype directly incriminated as a vector) has a distribution from Santo Domingo de los Colorados northwards. The Quevedo and Bucay cytotypes occur from Santo Domingo de los Colorados southwards. On the eastern side of the Andes, the Aguarico cytotype occurs in the Rio Aguarico and a new cytotype is present in the tributaries of the Rio Napo. Whether the disease will spread south of Santo Domingo and on the eastern side of the Andes depends on vector capacity of the cytotypes and the dispersal patterns of individuals infected with onchocerciasis. At present the Aguarico, Bucay and Quevedo cytotypes are known to be efficient hosts, but their biting preferences and biting densities have not yet been evaluated

Cytokines in the modulation of eosinophilia

In this review we discuss our recently results showing interleukin 5 (IL-5) involvement in eosinophil migration and in the maintenance of eosinophilia in blood, bone marrow, lung and peritoneal cavity, in a visceral larva migrans syndrome model using guinea-pigs infected with Toxocara canis. We also describe the sequential release of TNF-alpha and IL-8 during the course of infection, and the interaction between these cytokines and IL-5 during infection. Finally we propose a new biological role for IL-5, at least in our model, as a modulator of IL-8 release and secretion.

Role of Anopheles (Kerteszia) bellator as malaria vector in Southeastern Brazil (Diptera: Culicidae)

New research concerning Anopheles bellator in the southeast of the State of São Paulo, Brazil, are reported. Adult females of this mosquito showed remarkable endophily and endophagy which was even greater than An. cruzii. The epidemiological role of this anopheline as a malaria vector is discussed.

Spin-labeling coronary MR angiography with steady-state free precession and radial k-space sampling: initial results in healthy volunteers.

The purpose of this study was to prospectively compare free-breathing navigator-gated cardiac-triggered three-dimensional steady-state free precession (SSFP) spin-labeling coronary magnetic resonance (MR) angiography performed by using Cartesian k-space sampling with that performed by using radial k-space sampling. A new dedicated placement of the two-dimensional selective labeling pulse and an individually adjusted labeling delay time approved by the institutional review board were used. In 14 volunteers (eight men, six women; mean age, 28.8 years) who gave informed consent, signal-to-noise ratio (SNR), contrast-to-noise ratio (CNR), vessel sharpness, vessel length, and subjective image quality were investigated. Differences between groups were analyzed with nonparametric tests (Wilcoxon, Pearson chi2). Radial imaging, as compared with Cartesian imaging, resulted in a significant reduction in the severity of motion artifacts, as well as an increase in SNR (26.9 vs 12.0, P < .05) in the coronary arteries and CNR (23.1 vs 8.8, P < .05) between the coronary arteries and the myocardium. A tendency toward improved vessel sharpness and vessel length was also found with radial imaging. Radial SSFP imaging is a promising technique for spin-labeling coronary MR angiography.

Establishment and characterization of a new continuous cell line from Lutzomyia longipalpis (Diptera: Psychodidae) and its susceptibility to infections with arboviruses and Leishmania chagasi

Embryonic tissue explants of the sand fly Lutzomyia longipalpis (Lutz & Neiva 1912) the main vector of Leishmania chagasi (Cunha and Chagas), were used to obtain a continuous cell line (Lulo). The tissues were seeded in MM/VP12 medium and these were incubated at 28ºC. The first subculture was obtained 45 days after explanting and 96 passages have been made to date. Lulo is composed of epithelioid cells, showed a 0.04 generations/hour exponential growth rate and population doubling time at 24.7 h. The cell line isoenzymatic profiles were determined by using PGI, PGM, MPI and 6-PGDH systems, coinciding with patterns obtained from the same species and colony's pupae and adults. The species karyotype characteristics were recognized (2n = 8), in which pair 1 is subtelocentric and pairs 2, 3 and 4 are metacentric. Lulo was free from bacterial, fungal, mycoplasmic and viral infection. Susceptibility to five arbovirus was determined, the same as Lulo interaction with Leishmania promastigotes.

New species records for the blackfly (Diptera-Simuliidae) fauna of Argentina with description of adults, pupa and larva of Simulium oyapockense s. l. and S. seriatum

Two blackfly species Simulium (Cerqueirellum) oyapockense Floch & Abonnenc and S. (Hemicnetha) seriatum Knab are recorded from Argentina, representing the most southern register for both species. S. oyapockense is a species epidemiologically very important, as a vector of onchocerciasis in the Amazonian focus. Both species are described and illustrated and their distribution are reported, in similarity to others like S. roraimense Nunes de Mello and S. ganalesense Vargas et al. in reference to S. oyapockense and S. mexicanum Bellardi similar to S. seriatum are discussed.

Domestic and peridomestic transmission of American cutaneous leishmaniasis: changing epidemiological patterns present new control opportunities

Predictions that deforestation would reduce American cutaneous leishmaniasis incidence have proved incorrect. Presentations at a recent international workshop, instead, demonstrated frequent domestication of transmission throughout Latin America. While posing new threats, this process also increases the effectiveness of vector control in and around houses. New approaches for sand fly control and effective targeting of resources are reviewed.