The Inflation Risk Premium on Government Debt in an Overlapping Generations Model

This paper presents a general equilibrium model in which nominal government debt pays an inflation risk premium. The model predicts that the inflation risk premium will be higher in economies which are exposed to unanticipated inflation through nominal asset holdings. In particular, the inflation risk premium is higher when government debt is primarily nominal, steady-state inflation is low, and when cash and nominal debt account for a large fraction of consumers' retirement portfolios. These channels do not appear to have been highlighted in previous models or tested empirically. Numerical results suggest that the inflation risk premium is comparable in magnitude to standard representative agent models. These findings have implications for management of government debt, since the inflation risk premium makes it more costly for governments to borrow using nominal rather than indexed debt. Simulations of an extended model with Epstein-Zin preferences suggest that increasing the share of indexed debt would enable governments to permanently lower taxes by an amount that is quantitatively non-trivial.

Tax smoothing in a business cycle model with capital-skill complementarity

This paper undertakes a normative investigation of the quantitative properties of optimal tax smoothing in a business cycle model with state contingent debt, capital-skill complementarity, endogenous skill formation and stochastic shocks to public consumption as well as total factor and capital equipment productivity. Our main finding is that an empirically relevant restriction which does not allow the relative supply of skilled labour to adjust in response to aggregate shocks, signi cantly changes the cyclical properties of optimal labour taxes. Under a restricted relative skill supply, the government fi nds it optimal to adjust labour income tax rates so that the average net returns to skilled and unskilled labour hours exhibit the same dynamic behaviour as under fl exible skill supply.

The Inflation Bias under Calvo and Rotemberg Pricing.

New Keynesian models rely heavily on two workhorse models of nominal inertia - price contracts of random duration (Calvo, 1983) and price adjustment costs (Rotemberg, 1982) - to generate a meaningful role for monetary policy. These alternative descriptions of price stickiness are often used interchangeably since, to a first order of approximation they imply an isomorphic Phillips curve and, if the steady-state is efficient, identical objectives for the policy maker and as a result in an LQ framework, the same policy conclusions. In this paper we compute time-consistent optimal monetary policy in bench-mark New Keynesian models containing each form of price stickiness. Using global solution techniques we find that the inflation bias problem under Calvo contracts is significantly greater than under Rotemberg pricing, despite the fact that the former typically significant exhibits far greater welfare costs of inflation. The rates of inflation observed under this policy are non-trivial and suggest that the model can comfortably generate the rates of inflation at which the problematic issues highlighted in the trend inflation literature emerge, as well as the movements in trend inflation emphasized in empirical studies of the evolution of inflation. Finally, we consider the response to cost push shocks across both models and find these can also be significantly different. The choice of which form of nominal inertia to adopt is not innocuous.

An Empirical Assessment of Optimal Monetary Policy Delegation in the Euro Area

We estimate a New Keynesian DSGE model for the Euro area under alternative descriptions of monetary policy (discretion, commitment or a simple rule) after allowing for Markov switching in policy maker preferences and shock volatilities. This reveals that there have been several changes in Euro area policy making, with a strengthening of the anti-inflation stance in the early years of the ERM, which was then lost around the time of German reunification and only recovered following the turnoil in the ERM in 1992. The ECB does not appear to have been as conservative as aggregate Euro-area policy was under Bundesbank leadership, and its response to the financial crisis has been muted. The estimates also suggest that the most appropriate description of policy is that of discretion, with no evidence of commitment in the Euro-area. As a result although both ‘good luck’ and ‘good policy’ played a role in the moderation of inflation and output volatility in the Euro-area, the welfare gains would have been substantially higher had policy makers been able to commit. We consider a range of delegation schemes as devices to improve upon the discretionary outcome, and conclude that price level targeting would have achieved welfare levels close to those attained under commitment, even after accounting for the existence of the Zero Lower Bound on nominal interest rates.

An Empirical Assessment of Optimal Monetary Policy Delegation in the Euro Area

We estimate a New Keynesian DSGE model for the Euro area under alternative descriptions of monetary policy (discretion, commitment or a simple rule) after allowing for Markov switching in policy maker preferences and shock volatilities. This reveals that there have been several changes in Euro area policy making, with a strengthening of the anti-inflation stance in the early years of the ERM, which was then lost around the time of German reunification and only recovered following the turnoil in the ERM in 1992. The ECB does not appear to have been as conservative as aggregate Euro-area policy was under Bundesbank leadership, and its response to the financial crisis has been muted. The estimates also suggest that the most appropriate description of policy is that of discretion, with no evidence of commitment in the Euro-area. As a result although both ‘good luck’ and ‘good policy’ played a role in the moderation of inflation and output volatility in the Euro-area, the welfare gains would have been substantially higher had policy makers been able to commit. We consider a range of delegation schemes as devices to improve upon the discretionary outcome, and conclude that price level targeting would have achieved welfare levels close to those attained under commitment, even after accounting for the existence of the Zero Lower Bound on nominal interest rates.

Altered ligands reveal limited plasticity in the T cell response to a pathogenic epitope.

Experimental leishmaniasis offers a well characterized model of T helper type 1 cell (Th1)-mediated control of infection by an intracellular organism. Susceptible BALB/c mice aberrantly develop Th2 cells in response to infection and are unable to control parasite dissemination. The early CD4(+) T cell response in these mice is oligoclonal and reflects the expansion of Vbeta4/ Valpha8-bearing T cells in response to a single epitope from the parasite Leishmania homologue of mammalian RACK1 (LACK) antigen. Interleukin 4 (IL-4) generated by these cells is believed to direct the subsequent Th2 response. We used T cells from T cell receptor-transgenic mice expressing such a Vbeta4/Valpha8 receptor to characterize altered peptide ligands with similar affinity for I-Ad. Such altered ligands failed to activate IL-4 production from transgenic LACK-specific T cells or following injection into BALB/c mice. Pretreatment of susceptible mice with altered peptide ligands substantially altered the course of subsequent infection. The ability to confer a healer phenotype on otherwise susceptible mice using altered peptides that differed by a single amino acid suggests limited diversity in the endogenous T cell repertoire recognizing this antigen.

Plasma Level of Mmp-9 as Predictive Factor for Response and Progression Free Survival in Patients Treated with Bevacizumab (Bev) and Pegylated Liposomal Doxorubicin (Pld): Sakk 24/06

Background: There is currently no identified marker predicting benefit from Bev in patients with breast cancer (pts). We monitored prospectively 6 angiogenesis-related factors in the blood of advanced stage pts treated with a combination of Bev and PLD in a phase II trial of the Swiss Group for Clinical Cancer Research, SAKK.Methods: Pts received PLD (20 mg/m2) and Bev (10 mg/kg) every 2 weeks for a maximum of 12 administrations, followed by Bev monotherapy until progression or severe toxicity. Blood samples were collected at baseline, during treatment and at treatment discontinuation. Enzyme-linked immunosorbent assays (Quantikine, R&DSystems and Reliatech) were used to measure vascular endothelial growth factor (VEGF), placental growth factor (PlGF), matrix metalloproteinase 9 (MMP-9) and soluble VEGF receptors -1, -2 and -3. The natural log-transformed (ln) data for each factor was analyzed by analysis of variance (ANOVA) model to investigate differences between the mean values of the subgroups of interest (where a = 0.05), based on the best tumor response by RECIST.Results: 132 samples were collected in 41 pts. The mean of baseline ln MMP-9 levels was significantly lower in pts with tumor progression than those with tumor response (p=0.0202, log fold change=0.8786) or disease control (p=0.0035, log fold change=0.8427). Higher MMP-9 level was a significant predictor of superior progression free survival (PFS): p=0.0417, hazard ratio=0.574, 95% CI=0.336-0.979. In a multivariate cox proportional hazards model, containing performance status, disease free interval, number of tumor sites, visceral involvement and prior adjuvant chemotherapy, using stepwise regression baseline MMP-9 was still a statistically 117P Table 1. SOLTI-0701* AC01B07* NU07B1* SOR+CAP N=20 PL+CAP N=33 SOR+ GEM/CAP N=23 PL+ GEM/CAP N=27 SOR+PAC N=48 PL+PAC N=46 Baseline characteristics Age, median (range), y 49 (32-72) 53 (30-78 54 (32-69) 57 (31-82) 50 (27-80) 52 (23-74) AJCC stage, n (%) IIIB/IIIC 3 (15) 6 (18) 0 (0) 3 (11) 8 (17) 9 (20) IV 17 (85) 27 (82) 23 (100) 24 (89) 40 (83) 37 (80) Metastatic site, n (%) Non-visceral 3 (15) 6 (18) 7 (30) 6 (22) 9 (19) 17 (37) Visceral 17 (85) 27 (82) 16 (70) 21 (78) 39 (81) 29 (63) Prior metastatic chemo, n (%) 8 (40) 15 (45) 21 (91) 25 (93) - - Efficacy PFS, median, mo 4.3 2.5 3.1 2.6 5.6 5.5 HR (95% CI)_ 0.60 (0.31, 1.14) 0.57 (0.30, 1.09) 0.86 (0.50, 1.45) 1-sided P value_ 0.055 0.044 0.281 Overall survival, median, mo 17.5 16.1 Pending 14.7 18.2 HR (95% CI)_ 0.98 (0.50, 1.89) 1.11 (0.64, 1.94) 1-sided P value_ 0.476 0.352 Safety N=20 N=33 N=22 N=27 N=46 N=46 Tx-emergent Grade 3/4, n (%) 15 (75) 16 (48) 20 (91) 17 (63) 36 (78) 16 (35) Grade 3§ hand-foot skin reaction/ syndrome 8 (40) 5 (15) 8 (36) 0 (0) 14 (30) 2 (4) *Efficacy results based on intent-to-treat population and safety results based on safety population (pts who received study drug[s]); _Cox regression within each subgroup; _log-rank test within each subgroup; §maximum toxicity grade for hand-foot skin reaction/syndrome; AJCC, American Joint Committee on Cancer mittedabstractsª The Author 2011. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the European Society for Medical Oncology. All rights reserved. For permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com Downloaded from annonc.oxfordjournals.org at Bibliotheque Cantonale et Universitaire on June 6, 2011 significant factor (p=0.0266). The results of the other measured factors were presented elsewhere.Conclusions: Higher levels of MMP-9 could predict tumor response and superior PFSin pts treated with a combination of Bev and PLD. These exploratory results justify further investigations of MMP-9 in pts treated with Bev combinations in order to assess its role as a prognostic and predictive factor.Disclosure: K. Zaman: Participation in advisory board of Roche; partial sponsoring ofthe study by Roche (the main sponsor was the Swiss Federation against Cancer (Oncosuisse)). B. Thu¨rlimann: stock of Roche; Research grants from Roche. R. vonMoos: Participant of Advisory Board and Speaker honoraria

Replication of dengue viruses in mosquito cell cultures: a model from ultrastructural observations

Mosquito cell cultures infected with human sera from dengue-1 and dengue-2 outbreaks, started in Rio de Janeiro by 1986 and 1990 respectively, were examined by electron microscopy at different times post the infection of cell cultures. More information was obtained about cell penetration of virus particles in the presence or not of antibodies, their pathway inside the cells, replication mode and exit. Infectiveness of the virus at those different stages can only be attributed to the particles appearing inside the trans-Golgi vesicles; most of all newly formed virus particles remain inside the RER-derived cell vesicles or inside lysosomes, even during cell lysis. Groups of larges particles, 65-75 nm in diameter at dengue-2 infections, persist during cell passage. The large amounts of smooth membrane structures, as vesicles or tabules inside the RER are attributed to a cell response to viral infection.

First Report of a Newborn Rat Ventilation Model for Bronchopulmonary Dysplasia Permitting Evaluation of Long-Term Outcome

Background: Bronchopulmonary dysplasia (BPD) remains the leading cause of chronic pulmonary morbidity among preterm neonates. However, the exact pathophysiology is still unknown. Here we present the first results from a new model inteAbstracts, 25th International Workshop on Surfactant Replacement 400 Neonatology 2010;97:395-400 grating the most common risk factors for BPD (lung immaturity, inflammation, mechanical ventilation (MV), oxygen), which allows long-term outcome evaluation due to a non-traumatic intubation procedure. Objectives: To test the feasibility of a new rat model by investigating effects of MV, inflammation and oxygen applied to immature lungs after a ventilation-free interval. Methods: On day 4, 5, or 6 newborn rats were given an intraperitoneal injection of lipopolysaccharides to induce a systemic inflammation. 24 h later they were anesthetized, endotracheally intubated and ventilated for 8 h with 60% oxygen. After weaning of anesthesia and MV the newborn rats were extubated and returned to their mothers. Two days later they were killed and outcome measurements were performed (histology, quantitative RT-PCR) and compared to animals investigated directly after MV. Results: Directly after MV, histological signs of ventilator-induced lung injury were found. After 48 h, the first signs of early BPD were seen with delayed alveolar formation. Expression of inflammatory genes was only transiently increased. After 48 h genes involved in alveolarization, such as matrix metalloproteinase-9 and tropoelastin, showed a significant change of their expression. Conclusion: For the first time we can evaluate in a newborn rat model the effects of MV after a ventilation-free interval. This allows discrimination between immediate response genes and delayed changes of expression of more structural genes involved in alveolarization.

Vaccination in murine schistosomiasis with adult worm derived antigens - II. Protective and immune response in inbred mice

Previous work in our laboratory, mainly foccused the prospects of achieving resistance against Schistosoma mansoni infection with adult worm-derived antigens in the form of a soluble extract (SE). This extract obtained by incubation of living adult schistosomes in saline, contains a large number of distinct molecules and was actually shown to be a significantly protective in different outbred animals models such as Swiss mice and rabbits. It thus appeared worthwile to investigate the potencial protective activity of SE in different inbred strains of mice, known to be highly susceptible to the infection. Herein we present data showing that DBA/2 mice, once immunized with SE acquire significant levels of resistance to a S. mansoni cercarial challenge. In addition, preliminary studies on the immune system of immunized animals reveled that, injection of SE caused no general inbalance of B or T cell responses.

Differentially expressed gene profile in the 6-hydroxy-dopamine-induced cell culture model of Parkinson's disease.

Parkinson's disease (PD) is a chronic neurodegenerative disorder characterized by progressive loss of dopaminergic (DA) neurons of the substantia nigra pars compacta with unknown aetiology. 6-Hydroxydopamine (6-OHDA) treatment of neuronal cells is an established in vivo model for mimicking the effect of oxidative stress found in PD brains. We examined the effects of 6-OHDA treatment on human neuroblastoma cells (SH-SY5Y) and primary mesencephalic cultures. Using a reverse arbitrarily primed polymerase chain reaction (RAP-PCR) approach we generated reproducible genetic fingerprints of differential expression levels in cell cultures treated with 6-OHDA. Of the resulting sequences, 23 showed considerable homology to known human coding sequences. The results of the RAP-PCR were validated by reverse transcription PCR, real-time PCR and, for selected genes, by Western blot analysis and immunofluorescence. In four cases, [tomoregulin-1 (TMEFF-1), collapsin response mediator protein 1 (CRMP-1), neurexin-1, and phosphoribosylaminoimidazole synthetase (GART)], a down-regulation of mRNA and protein levels was detected. Further studies will be necessary on the physiological role of the identified proteins and their impact on pathways leading to neurodegeneration in PD.

Early antibiotic administration affects the gut barrier function and the immune response to oral antigen in suckling rats

Abstract: The increasingly high hygienic standards characterizing westernized societies correlate with an increasingly high prevalence of allergic disease. Initially based on these observations, the hygiene hypothesis postulates that reduced microbial stimulation during infancy impairs the immune system development and increases the risk of allergy. Moreover, there is increasing evidence that the crosstalk existing between the intestine and the resident microbiota is crucial for gut homeostasis. In particular, bacterial colonization of the gut affects the integrity of the gut barrier and stimulates the development of the gut associated immune tissue, both phenomena being essential for the immune system to mount a controlled response to food antigens. Therefore, alterations in the microbial colonization process, by compromising the barrier homeostasis, may increase the risk of food allergy. In this context, antibiotic treatment, frequently prescribed during infancy, affects gut colonization by bacteria. However, little is known about the impact of alterations in the colonization process on the maturation of the gut barrier and on the immunological response to oral antigens. The objective of this work was to determine the impact of a commercial antibiotic preparation employed in pediatric settings on the gut barrier status at the critical period of the suckling/weaning transition and to evaluate the physiological consequences of this treatment in terms of immune response to food antigens. We established an antibiotic-treated suckling rat model relevant to the pediatric population in terms of type, dose and route of administration of the antibiotic and of changes in the patterns of microbial colonization. Oral tolerance to a novel luminal antigen (ovalbumin) was impaired when the antigen was introduced during antibiotic treatment. These results paralleled to alterations in the intestinal permeability to macromolecules and reduced intestinal expression of genes coding for the major histocomptatibility complex II molecules, which suggest a reduced capacity of antigen handling and presentation in the intestine of the antibiotic-treated animals. In addition, low luminal IgA levels and reduced intestinal expression of genes coding for antimicrobial proteins suggest that protection against pathogens was reduced under antibiotic treatment. In conclusion, we observed in suckling rats that treatment with abroad-spectrum antibiotic commonly used in pediatric practices reduced the capacity of the immune system to develop tolerance. The impact of the antibiotic treatment on the immune response to the antigen-was likely mediated by the alterations of the gut microbiota, through impairment in the mechanisms of antigen handling and presentation. This work reinforces the body of data supporting a key role of the intestinal microbiota modulating the risk of allergy development and leads us to propose that the introduction of new food antigens should be avoided during antibiotic treatment in infants. Résumé: L'augmentation du niveau d'hygiène caractérisant les sociétés occidentales semble être fortement corrélée avec l'augmentation des cas d'allergie dans ces pays. De cette observation est née l'hypothèse qu'une diminution des stimuli microbiens pendant l'enfance modifie le développement du système immunitaire augmentant ainsi le risque d'allergie. En ce sens, un nombre croissant de données indiquent que les interactions existant entre l'intestin et les bactéries résidantes sont cruciales pour l'équilibre du système. En effet, la présence de bactéries dans l'intestin affecte l'intégrité de sa fonction de barrière et stimule le développement du système immunitaire intestinal. Ces deux paramètres étant essentiels à la mise en place d'une réponse contrôlée vis à vis d'un antigène reçu oralement, toute modification du processus naturel de colonisation compromettant l'équilibre intestinal pourrait augmenter le risque d'allergie. Les traitements aux antibiotiques, fréquemment prescrits en pédiatrie, modifient de façon conséquente le processus de colonisation bactérienne. Cependant peu de données existent concernant l'impact d'une altération du processus de colonisation sur la maturation de la barrière intestinale et de la réponse immunitaire dirigée contre un antigène. L'objectif de ce travail était de déterminer l'impact d'un antibiotique commercial et employé en pédiatrie sur l'état de la barrière intestinale au moment critique du sevrage et d'évaluer les conséquences physiologiques d'un tel traitement sur la réponse immune à un antigène alimentaire. Nous avons mis en place un modèle de rats allaités, traités à l'antibiotique, le plus proche possible des pratiques pédiatriques, en terme de nature, dose et voie d'administration de l'antibiotique. Nous avons constaté que l'établissement de la tolérance orale à un nouvel antigène (l'ovalbumine) est altéré quand celui-ci est donné pour la première fois au cours du traitement antibiotique. Ces résultats coïncident avec une diminution de la perméabilité intestinale aux macromolécules, ainsi qu'avec une diminution de l'expression des gènes codant pour les molécules du complexe majeur d'histocomptatibilité de classe II, suggérant une modification de l'apprêtement et de la présentation de l'antigène au niveau intestinal chez les rats traités à l'antibiotique. De plus, un faible taux d'IgA et une diminution de l'expression des gènes codant pour des protéines antimicrobiennes, observés après l'administration d'antibiotique, laissent à penser que la protection contre un pathogène est diminuée lors d'un traitement antibiotique. En conclusion, nous avons observé qu'un traitement antibiotique à large spectre d'activité, couramment utilisé en pédiatrie, réduit la capacité d'induction de la tolérance orale chez le rat allaité. L'impact du traitement antibiotique sur la réponse immune semble induite par l'altération de la flore intestinale via son effet sur les mécanismes d'apprêtement et de présentation de l'antigène. Ce travail renforce l'ensemble des données existantes qui accorde à la flore intestinale un rôle clef dans la modulation du risque de développement d'allergie et nous amène à recommander d'éviter l'introduction d'un nouvel aliment lorsqu'un enfant est traité aux antibiotiques.

Detecting epistasis with restricted response patterns in pairs of biallelic loci.

Well-established examples of genetic epistasis between a pair of loci typically show characteristic patterns of phenotypic distributions in joint genotype tables. However, inferring epistasis given such data is difficult due to the lack of power in commonly used approaches, which decompose the epistatic patterns into main plus interaction effects followed by testing the interaction term. Testing additive-only or all terms may have more power, but they are sensitive to nonepistatic patterns. Alternatively, the epistatic patterns of interest can be enumerated and the best matching one is found by searching through the possibilities. Although this approach requires multiple testing correction over possible patterns, each pattern can be fitted with a regression model with just one degree of freedom and thus the overall power can still be high, if the number of possible patterns is limited. Here we compare the power of the linear decomposition and pattern search methods, by applying them to simulated data generated under several patterns of joint genotype effects with simple biological interpretations. Interaction-only tests are the least powerful; while pattern search approach is the most powerful if the range of possibilities is restricted, but still includes the true pattern.

A peripheral dose calculation model for estimating second cancer risk after breast radiotherapy

AbstractBreast cancer is one of the most common cancers affecting one in eight women during their lives. Survival rates have increased steadily thanks to early diagnosis with mammography screening and more efficient treatment strategies. Post-operative radiation therapy is a standard of care in the management of breast cancer and has been shown to reduce efficiently both local recurrence rate and breast cancer mortality. Radiation therapy is however associated with some late effects for long-term survivors. Radiation-induced secondary cancer is a relatively rare but severe late effect of radiation therapy. Currently, radiotherapy plans are essentially optimized to maximize tumor control and minimize late deterministic effects (tissue reactions) that are mainly associated with high doses (» 1 Gy). With improved cure rates and new radiation therapy technologies, it is also important to evaluate and minimize secondary cancer risks for different treatment techniques. This is a particularly challenging task due to the large uncertainties in the dose-response relationship.In contrast with late deterministic effects, secondary cancers may be associated with much lower doses and therefore out-of-field doses (also called peripheral doses) that are typically inferior to 1 Gy need to be determined accurately. Out-of-field doses result from patient scatter and head scatter from the treatment unit. These doses are particularly challenging to compute and we characterized it by Monte Carlo (MC) calculation. A detailed MC model of the Siemens Primus linear accelerator has been thoroughly validated with measurements. We investigated the accuracy of such a model for retrospective dosimetry in epidemiological studies on secondary cancers. Considering that patients in such large studies could be treated on a variety of machines, we assessed the uncertainty in reconstructed peripheral dose due to the variability of peripheral dose among various linac geometries. For large open fields (> 10x10 cm2), the uncertainty would be less than 50%, but for small fields and wedged fields the uncertainty in reconstructed dose could rise up to a factor of 10. It was concluded that such a model could be used for conventional treatments using large open fields only.The MC model of the Siemens Primus linac was then used to compare out-of-field doses for different treatment techniques in a female whole-body CT-based phantom. Current techniques such as conformai wedged-based radiotherapy and hybrid IMRT were investigated and compared to older two-dimensional radiotherapy techniques. MC doses were also compared to those of a commercial Treatment Planning System (TPS). While the TPS is routinely used to determine the dose to the contralateral breast and the ipsilateral lung which are mostly out of the treatment fields, we have shown that these doses may be highly inaccurate depending on the treatment technique investigated. MC shows that hybrid IMRT is dosimetrically similar to three-dimensional wedge-based radiotherapy within the field, but offers substantially reduced doses to out-of-field healthy organs.Finally, many different approaches to risk estimations extracted from the literature were applied to the calculated MC dose distribution. Absolute risks varied substantially as did the ratio of risk between two treatment techniques, reflecting the large uncertainties involved with current risk models. Despite all these uncertainties, the hybrid IMRT investigated resulted in systematically lower cancer risks than any of the other treatment techniques. More epidemiological studies with accurate dosimetry are required in the future to construct robust risk models. In the meantime, any treatment strategy that reduces out-of-field doses to healthy organs should be investigated. Electron radiotherapy might offer interesting possibilities with this regard.RésuméLe cancer du sein affecte une femme sur huit au cours de sa vie. Grâce au dépistage précoce et à des thérapies de plus en plus efficaces, le taux de guérison a augmenté au cours du temps. La radiothérapie postopératoire joue un rôle important dans le traitement du cancer du sein en réduisant le taux de récidive et la mortalité. Malheureusement, la radiothérapie peut aussi induire des toxicités tardives chez les patients guéris. En particulier, les cancers secondaires radio-induits sont une complication rare mais sévère de la radiothérapie. En routine clinique, les plans de radiothérapie sont essentiellement optimisées pour un contrôle local le plus élevé possible tout en minimisant les réactions tissulaires tardives qui sont essentiellement associées avec des hautes doses (» 1 Gy). Toutefois, avec l'introduction de différentes nouvelles techniques et avec l'augmentation des taux de survie, il devient impératif d'évaluer et de minimiser les risques de cancer secondaire pour différentes techniques de traitement. Une telle évaluation du risque est une tâche ardue étant donné les nombreuses incertitudes liées à la relation dose-risque.Contrairement aux effets tissulaires, les cancers secondaires peuvent aussi être induits par des basses doses dans des organes qui se trouvent hors des champs d'irradiation. Ces organes reçoivent des doses périphériques typiquement inférieures à 1 Gy qui résultent du diffusé du patient et du diffusé de l'accélérateur. Ces doses sont difficiles à calculer précisément, mais les algorithmes Monte Carlo (MC) permettent de les estimer avec une bonne précision. Un modèle MC détaillé de l'accélérateur Primus de Siemens a été élaboré et validé avec des mesures. La précision de ce modèle a également été déterminée pour la reconstruction de dose en épidémiologie. Si on considère que les patients inclus dans de larges cohortes sont traités sur une variété de machines, l'incertitude dans la reconstruction de dose périphérique a été étudiée en fonction de la variabilité de la dose périphérique pour différents types d'accélérateurs. Pour de grands champs (> 10x10 cm ), l'incertitude est inférieure à 50%, mais pour de petits champs et des champs filtrés, l'incertitude de la dose peut monter jusqu'à un facteur 10. En conclusion, un tel modèle ne peut être utilisé que pour les traitements conventionnels utilisant des grands champs.Le modèle MC de l'accélérateur Primus a été utilisé ensuite pour déterminer la dose périphérique pour différentes techniques dans un fantôme corps entier basé sur des coupes CT d'une patiente. Les techniques actuelles utilisant des champs filtrés ou encore l'IMRT hybride ont été étudiées et comparées par rapport aux techniques plus anciennes. Les doses calculées par MC ont été comparées à celles obtenues d'un logiciel de planification commercial (TPS). Alors que le TPS est utilisé en routine pour déterminer la dose au sein contralatéral et au poumon ipsilatéral qui sont principalement hors des faisceaux, nous avons montré que ces doses peuvent être plus ou moins précises selon la technTque étudiée. Les calculs MC montrent que la technique IMRT est dosimétriquement équivalente à celle basée sur des champs filtrés à l'intérieur des champs de traitement, mais offre une réduction importante de la dose aux organes périphériques.Finalement différents modèles de risque ont été étudiés sur la base des distributions de dose calculées par MC. Les risques absolus et le rapport des risques entre deux techniques de traitement varient grandement, ce qui reflète les grandes incertitudes liées aux différents modèles de risque. Malgré ces incertitudes, on a pu montrer que la technique IMRT offrait une réduction du risque systématique par rapport aux autres techniques. En attendant des données épidémiologiques supplémentaires sur la relation dose-risque, toute technique offrant une réduction des doses périphériques aux organes sains mérite d'être étudiée. La radiothérapie avec des électrons offre à ce titre des possibilités intéressantes.

Understanding the low-temperature limitations to forest growth through calibration of a forest dynamics model with tree-ring data

The sensitivity of altitudinal and latitudinal tree-line ecotones to climate change, particularly that of temperature, has received much attention. To improve our understanding of the factors affecting tree-line position, we used the spatially explicit dynamic forest model TreeMig. Although well-suited because of its landscape dynamics functions, TreeMig features a parabolic temperature growth response curve, which has recently been questioned. and the species parameters are not specifically calibrated for cold temperatures. Our main goals were to improve the theoretical basis of the temperature growth response curve in the model and develop a method for deriving that curve's parameters from tree-ring data. We replaced the parabola with an asymptotic curve, calibrated for the main species at the subalpine (Swiss Alps: Pinus cembra, Larix decidua, Picea abies) and boreal (Fennoscandia: Pinus sylvestris, Betula pubescens, P. abies) tree-lines. After fitting new parameters, the growth curve matched observed tree-ring widths better. For the subalpine species, the minimum degree-day sum allowing, growth (kDDMin) was lowered by around 100 degree-days; in the case of Larix, the maximum potential ring-width was increased to 5.19 mm. At the boreal tree-line, the kDDMin for P. sylvestris was lowered by 210 degree-days and its maximum ring-width increased to 2.943 mm; for Betula (new in the model) kDDMin was set to 325 degree-days and the maximum ring-width to 2.51 mm; the values from the only boreal sample site for Picea were similar to the subalpine ones, so the same parameters were used. However, adjusting the growth response alone did not improve the model's output concerning species' distributions and their relative importance at tree-line. Minimum winter temperature (MinWiT, mean of the coldest winter month), which controls seedling establishment in TreeMig, proved more important for determining distribution. Picea, P. sylvestris and Betula did not previously have minimum winter temperature limits, so these values were set to the 95th percentile of each species' coldest MinWiT site (respectively -7, -11, -13). In a case study for the Alps, the original and newly calibrated versions of TreeMig were compared with biomass data from the National Forest Inventor), (NFI). Both models gave similar, reasonably realistic results. In conclusion, this method of deriving temperature responses from tree-rings works well. However, regeneration and its underlying factors seem more important for controlling species' distributions than previously thought. More research on regeneration ecology, especially at the upper limit of forests. is needed to improve predictions of tree-line responses to climate change further.