Cogestion des ressources naturelles : une approche structurale pour quantifier la contribution des réseaux d'acteurs à la résilience des systèmes socio-écologiques

Alors que les activités anthropiques font basculer de nombreux écosystèmes vers des régimes fonctionnels différents, la résilience des systèmes socio-écologiques devient un problème pressant. Des acteurs locaux, impliqués dans une grande diversité de groupes — allant d’initiatives locales et indépendantes à de grandes institutions formelles — peuvent agir sur ces questions en collaborant au développement, à la promotion ou à l’implantation de pratiques plus en accord avec ce que l’environnement peut fournir. De ces collaborations répétées émergent des réseaux complexes, et il a été montré que la topologie de ces réseaux peut améliorer la résilience des systèmes socio-écologiques (SSÉ) auxquels ils participent. La topologie des réseaux d’acteurs favorisant la résilience de leur SSÉ est caractérisée par une combinaison de plusieurs facteurs : la structure doit être modulaire afin d’aider les différents groupes à développer et proposer des solutions à la fois plus innovantes (en réduisant l’homogénéisation du réseau), et plus proches de leurs intérêts propres ; elle doit être bien connectée et facilement synchronisable afin de faciliter les consensus, d’augmenter le capital social, ainsi que la capacité d’apprentissage ; enfin, elle doit être robuste, afin d’éviter que les deux premières caractéristiques ne souffrent du retrait volontaire ou de la mise à l’écart de certains acteurs. Ces caractéristiques, qui sont relativement intuitives à la fois conceptuellement et dans leur application mathématique, sont souvent employées séparément pour analyser les qualités structurales de réseaux d’acteurs empiriques. Cependant, certaines sont, par nature, incompatibles entre elles. Par exemple, le degré de modularité d’un réseau ne peut pas augmenter au même rythme que sa connectivité, et cette dernière ne peut pas être améliorée tout en améliorant sa robustesse. Cet obstacle rend difficile la création d’une mesure globale, car le niveau auquel le réseau des acteurs contribue à améliorer la résilience du SSÉ ne peut pas être la simple addition des caractéristiques citées, mais plutôt le résultat d’un compromis subtil entre celles-ci. Le travail présenté ici a pour objectifs (1), d’explorer les compromis entre ces caractéristiques ; (2) de proposer une mesure du degré auquel un réseau empirique d’acteurs contribue à la résilience de son SSÉ ; et (3) d’analyser un réseau empirique à la lumière, entre autres, de ces qualités structurales. Cette thèse s’articule autour d’une introduction et de quatre chapitres numérotés de 2 à 5. Le chapitre 2 est une revue de la littérature sur la résilience des SSÉ. Il identifie une série de caractéristiques structurales (ainsi que les mesures de réseaux qui leur correspondent) liées à l’amélioration de la résilience dans les SSÉ. Le chapitre 3 est une étude de cas sur la péninsule d’Eyre, une région rurale d’Australie-Méridionale où l’occupation du sol, ainsi que les changements climatiques, contribuent à l’érosion de la biodiversité. Pour cette étude de cas, des travaux de terrain ont été effectués en 2010 et 2011 durant lesquels une série d’entrevues a permis de créer une liste des acteurs de la cogestion de la biodiversité sur la péninsule. Les données collectées ont été utilisées pour le développement d’un questionnaire en ligne permettant de documenter les interactions entre ces acteurs. Ces deux étapes ont permis la reconstitution d’un réseau pondéré et dirigé de 129 acteurs individuels et 1180 relations. Le chapitre 4 décrit une méthodologie pour mesurer le degré auquel un réseau d’acteurs participe à la résilience du SSÉ dans lequel il est inclus. La méthode s’articule en deux étapes : premièrement, un algorithme d’optimisation (recuit simulé) est utilisé pour fabriquer un archétype semi-aléatoire correspondant à un compromis entre des niveaux élevés de modularité, de connectivité et de robustesse. Deuxièmement, un réseau empirique (comme celui de la péninsule d’Eyre) est comparé au réseau archétypique par le biais d’une mesure de distance structurelle. Plus la distance est courte, et plus le réseau empirique est proche de sa configuration optimale. La cinquième et dernier chapitre est une amélioration de l’algorithme de recuit simulé utilisé dans le chapitre 4. Comme il est d’usage pour ce genre d’algorithmes, le recuit simulé utilisé projetait les dimensions du problème multiobjectif dans une seule dimension (sous la forme d’une moyenne pondérée). Si cette technique donne de très bons résultats ponctuellement, elle n’autorise la production que d’une seule solution parmi la multitude de compromis possibles entre les différents objectifs. Afin de mieux explorer ces compromis, nous proposons un algorithme de recuit simulé multiobjectifs qui, plutôt que d’optimiser une seule solution, optimise une surface multidimensionnelle de solutions. Cette étude, qui se concentre sur la partie sociale des systèmes socio-écologiques, améliore notre compréhension des structures actorielles qui contribuent à la résilience des SSÉ. Elle montre que si certaines caractéristiques profitables à la résilience sont incompatibles (modularité et connectivité, ou — dans une moindre mesure — connectivité et robustesse), d’autres sont plus facilement conciliables (connectivité et synchronisabilité, ou — dans une moindre mesure — modularité et robustesse). Elle fournit également une méthode intuitive pour mesurer quantitativement des réseaux d’acteurs empiriques, et ouvre ainsi la voie vers, par exemple, des comparaisons d’études de cas, ou des suivis — dans le temps — de réseaux d’acteurs. De plus, cette thèse inclut une étude de cas qui fait la lumière sur l’importance de certains groupes institutionnels pour la coordination des collaborations et des échanges de connaissances entre des acteurs aux intérêts potentiellement divergents.

Energy Management of a Battery-Ultracapacitor Hybrid Energy Storage System in Electric Vehicles

Electric vehicle (EV) batteries tend to have accelerated degradation due to high peak power and harsh charging/discharging cycles during acceleration and deceleration periods, particularly in urban driving conditions. An oversized energy storage system (ESS) can meet the high power demands; however, it suffers from increased size, volume and cost. In order to reduce the overall ESS size and extend battery cycle life, a battery-ultracapacitor (UC) hybrid energy storage system (HESS) has been considered as an alternative solution. In this work, we investigate the optimized configuration, design, and energy management of a battery-UC HESS. One of the major challenges in a HESS is to design an energy management controller for real-time implementation that can yield good power split performance. We present the methodologies and solutions to this problem in a battery-UC HESS with a DC-DC converter interfacing with the UC and the battery. In particular, a multi-objective optimization problem is formulated to optimize the power split in order to prolong the battery lifetime and to reduce the HESS power losses. This optimization problem is numerically solved for standard drive cycle datasets using Dynamic Programming (DP). Trained using the DP optimal results, an effective real-time implementation of the optimal power split is realized based on Neural Network (NN). This proposed online energy management controller is applied to a midsize EV model with a 360V/34kWh battery pack and a 270V/203Wh UC pack. The proposed online energy management controller effectively splits the load demand with high power efficiency and also effectively reduces the battery peak current. More importantly, a 38V-385Wh battery and a 16V-2.06Wh UC HESS hardware prototype and a real-time experiment platform has been developed. The real-time experiment results have successfully validated the real-time implementation feasibility and effectiveness of the real-time controller design for the battery-UC HESS. A battery State-of-Health (SoH) estimation model is developed as a performance metric to evaluate the battery cycle life extension effect. It is estimated that the proposed online energy management controller can extend the battery cycle life by over 60%.

Designing Efficient Subsidy Policies in a Regional Economy: A Multicriteria Decision-Making (MCDM)-Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) Approach

Since policy-makers usually pursue several conflicting objectives, policy-making can be understood as a multicriteria decision problem. Following the methodological proposal by André and Cardenete (2005) André, F. J. and Cardenete, M. A. 2005. Multicriteria Policy Making. Defining Efficient Policies in a General Equilibrium Model, Seville: Centro de Estudios Andaluces. Working Paper No. E2005/04, multi-objective programming is used in connection with a computable general equilibrium model to represent optimal policy-making and to obtain so-called efficient policies in an application to a regional economy (Andalusia, Spain). This approach is applied to the design of subsidy policies under two different scenarios. In the first scenario, it is assumed that the government is concerned just about two objectives: ensuring the profitability of a key strategic sector and increasing overall output. Finally, the scope of the exercise is enlarged by solving a problem with seven policy objectives, including both general and sectorial objectives. It is concluded that the observed policy could have been Pareto-improved in several directions.

Algoritmos construtivos para treino de redes neuronais b-spline

Dissertação de mest. em Engenharia de Sistemas e Computação - Área de Sistemas de Controlo, Faculdade de Ciências e Tecnologia, Univ.do Algarve, 2001

Design Optimization of Nozzle Shapes for Maximum Uniformity of Exit Flow

The objective of this study is to identify the optimal designs of converging-diverging supersonic and hypersonic nozzles that perform at maximum uniformity of thermodynamic and flow-field properties with respect to their average values at the nozzle exit. Since this is a multi-objective design optimization problem, the design variables used are parameters defining the shape of the nozzle. This work presents how variation of such parameters can influence the nozzle exit flow non-uniformities. A Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) software package, ANSYS FLUENT, was used to simulate the compressible, viscous gas flow-field in forty nozzle shapes, including the heat transfer analysis. The results of two turbulence models, k-e and k-ω, were computed and compared. With the analysis results obtained, the Response Surface Methodology (RSM) was applied for the purpose of performing a multi-objective optimization. The optimization was performed with ModeFrontier software package using Kriging and Radial Basis Functions (RBF) response surfaces. Final Pareto optimal nozzle shapes were then analyzed with ANSYS FLUENT to confirm the accuracy of the optimization process.

Evolution of classifiers for pitch estimation of piano music using cartesian genetic programming

Pitch Estimation, also known as Fundamental Frequency (F0) estimation, has been a popular research topic for many years, and is still investigated nowadays. The goal of Pitch Estimation is to find the pitch or fundamental frequency of a digital recording of a speech or musical notes. It plays an important role, because it is the key to identify which notes are being played and at what time. Pitch Estimation of real instruments is a very hard task to address. Each instrument has its own physical characteristics, which reflects in different spectral characteristics. Furthermore, the recording conditions can vary from studio to studio and background noises must be considered. This dissertation presents a novel approach to the problem of Pitch Estimation, using Cartesian Genetic Programming (CGP).We take advantage of evolutionary algorithms, in particular CGP, to explore and evolve complex mathematical functions that act as classifiers. These classifiers are used to identify piano notes pitches in an audio signal. To help us with the codification of the problem, we built a highly flexible CGP Toolbox, generic enough to encode different kind of programs. The encoded evolutionary algorithm is the one known as 1 + , and we can choose the value for . The toolbox is very simple to use. Settings such as the mutation probability, number of runs and generations are configurable. The cartesian representation of CGP can take multiple forms and it is able to encode function parameters. It is prepared to handle with different type of fitness functions: minimization of f(x) and maximization of f(x) and has a useful system of callbacks. We trained 61 classifiers corresponding to 61 piano notes. A training set of audio signals was used for each of the classifiers: half were signals with the same pitch as the classifier (true positive signals) and the other half were signals with different pitches (true negative signals). F-measure was used for the fitness function. Signals with the same pitch of the classifier that were correctly identified by the classifier, count as a true positives. Signals with the same pitch of the classifier that were not correctly identified by the classifier, count as a false negatives. Signals with different pitch of the classifier that were not identified by the classifier, count as a true negatives. Signals with different pitch of the classifier that were identified by the classifier, count as a false positives. Our first approach was to evolve classifiers for identifying artifical signals, created by mathematical functions: sine, sawtooth and square waves. Our function set is basically composed by filtering operations on vectors and by arithmetic operations with constants and vectors. All the classifiers correctly identified true positive signals and did not identify true negative signals. We then moved to real audio recordings. For testing the classifiers, we picked different audio signals from the ones used during the training phase. For a first approach, the obtained results were very promising, but could be improved. We have made slight changes to our approach and the number of false positives reduced 33%, compared to the first approach. We then applied the evolved classifiers to polyphonic audio signals, and the results indicate that our approach is a good starting point for addressing the problem of Pitch Estimation.

Aplicaciones de los modelos de predicción bio-inspirados en la administración

Las organizaciones y sus entornos son sistemas complejos. Tales sistemas son difíciles de comprender y predecir. Pese a ello, la predicción es una tarea fundamental para la gestión empresarial y para la toma de decisiones que implica siempre un riesgo. Los métodos clásicos de predicción (entre los cuales están: la regresión lineal, la Autoregresive Moving Average y el exponential smoothing) establecen supuestos como la linealidad, la estabilidad para ser matemática y computacionalmente tratables. Por diferentes medios, sin embargo, se han demostrado las limitaciones de tales métodos. Pues bien, en las últimas décadas nuevos métodos de predicción han surgido con el fin de abarcar la complejidad de los sistemas organizacionales y sus entornos, antes que evitarla. Entre ellos, los más promisorios son los métodos de predicción bio-inspirados (ej. redes neuronales, algoritmos genéticos /evolutivos y sistemas inmunes artificiales). Este artículo pretende establecer un estado situacional de las aplicaciones actuales y potenciales de los métodos bio-inspirados de predicción en la administración.

A framework for risk analysis in automotive cybersecurity

We address the problem of automotive cybersecurity from the point of view of Threat Analysis and Risk Assessment (TARA). The central question that motivates the thesis is the one about the acceptability of risk, which is vital in taking a decision about the implementation of cybersecurity solutions. For this purpose, we develop a quantitative framework in which we take in input the results of risk assessment and define measures of various facets of a possible risk response; we then exploit the natural presence of trade-offs (cost versus effectiveness) to formulate the problem as a multi-objective optimization. Finally, we develop a stochastic model of the future evolution of the risk factors, by means of Markov chains; we adapt the formulations of the optimization problems to this non-deterministic context. The thesis is the result of a collaboration with the Vehicle Electrification division of Marelli, in particular with the Cybersecurity team based in Bologna; this allowed us to consider a particular instance of the problem, deriving from a real TARA, in order to test both the deterministic and the stochastic framework in a real world application. The collaboration also explains why in the work we often assume the point of view of a tier-1 supplier; however, the analyses performed can be adapted to any other level of the supply chain.

High power density electrical machines with hairpin windings

Nowadays, electrical machines are seeing an ever-increasing development and extensive research is currently being dedicated to the improvement of their efficiency and torque/power density. Compared to conventional random windings, hairpin winding inherently features lower DC resistance, higher fill factor, better thermal performance, improved reliability, and an automated manufacturing process. However, several challenges need to be addressed, including electromagnetic, thermal, and manufacturing aspects. Of these, the high ohmic losses at high-frequency operations due to skin and proximity effects are the most severe, resulting in low efficiency or high-temperature values. In this work, the hairpin winding challenges were highlighted at high-frequency operations and at showing the limits of applicability of these standard approaches. Afterward, a multi-objective design optimization is proposed aiming to enhance the exploitation of the hairpin technology in electrical machines. Efficiency and volume power density are considered as main design objectives. Subsequently, a changing paradigm is made for the design of electric motors equipped with hairpin windings, where it is proven that a temperature-oriented approach would be beneficial when designing this type of pre-formed winding. Furthermore, the effect of the rotor topology on AC losses is also considered. After providing design recommendations and FE electromagnetic and thermal evaluations, experimental tests are also performed for validation purposes on a motorette wound with pre-formed conductors. The results show that operating the machine at higher temperatures could be beneficial to efficiency, particularly in high-frequency operations where AC losses are higher at low operating temperatures. The last part of the thesis focuses on comparing the main electromagnetic performance metrics for a conventional hairpin winding, wound onto a benchmark stator with a semi-closed slot opening design, and a continuous hairpin winding, in which the slot opening is open. Lastly, the adoption of semi-magnetic slot wedges is investigated to improve the overall performance of the motor.

A hybridised evolutionary algorithm for multi-criterion minimum spanning tree problems

A hybridised and Knowledge-based Evolutionary Algorithm (KEA) is applied to the multi-criterion minimum spanning tree problems. Hybridisation is used across its three phases. In the first phase a deterministic single objective optimization algorithm finds the extreme points of the Pareto front. In the second phase a K-best approach finds the first neighbours of the extreme points, which serve as an elitist parent population to an evolutionary algorithm in the third phase. A knowledge-based mutation operator is applied in each generation to reproduce individuals that are at least as good as the unique parent. The advantages of KEA over previous algorithms include its speed (making it applicable to large real-world problems), its scalability to more than two criteria, and its ability to find both the supported and unsupported optimal solutions.

Evolutionary multi-move path-relinking for transmission network expansion planning

This paper presents the application of a new metaheuristic algorithm to solve the transmission expansion planning problem. A simple heuristic, using a relaxed network model associated with cost perturbation, is applied to generate a set of high quality initial solutions with different topologies. The population is evolved using a multi-move path-relinking with the objective of finding minimum investment cost for the transmission expansion planning problem employing the DC representation. The algorithm is tested on the southern Brazilian system, obtaining the optimal solution for the system with better performance than similar metaheuristics algorithms applied to the same problem. ©2010 IEEE.

Response threshold models, stochastic learning automata and ant colony optimization-based decentralized self-coordination algorithms for heterogeneous multi-tasks distribution in multi-robot systems

In recent decades, there has been an increasing interest in systems comprised of several autonomous mobile robots, and as a result, there has been a substantial amount of development in the eld of Articial Intelligence, especially in Robotics. There are several studies in the literature by some researchers from the scientic community that focus on the creation of intelligent machines and devices capable to imitate the functions and movements of living beings. Multi-Robot Systems (MRS) can often deal with tasks that are dicult, if not impossible, to be accomplished by a single robot. In the context of MRS, one of the main challenges is the need to control, coordinate and synchronize the operation of multiple robots to perform a specic task. This requires the development of new strategies and methods which allow us to obtain the desired system behavior in a formal and concise way. This PhD thesis aims to study the coordination of multi-robot systems, in particular, addresses the problem of the distribution of heterogeneous multi-tasks. The main interest in these systems is to understand how from simple rules inspired by the division of labor in social insects, a group of robots can perform tasks in an organized and coordinated way. We are mainly interested on truly distributed or decentralized solutions in which the robots themselves, autonomously and in an individual manner, select a particular task so that all tasks are optimally distributed. In general, to perform the multi-tasks distribution among a team of robots, they have to synchronize their actions and exchange information. Under this approach we can speak of multi-tasks selection instead of multi-tasks assignment, which means, that the agents or robots select the tasks instead of being assigned a task by a central controller. The key element in these algorithms is the estimation ix of the stimuli and the adaptive update of the thresholds. This means that each robot performs this estimate locally depending on the load or the number of pending tasks to be performed. In addition, it is very interesting the evaluation of the results in function in each approach, comparing the results obtained by the introducing noise in the number of pending loads, with the purpose of simulate the robot's error in estimating the real number of pending tasks. The main contribution of this thesis can be found in the approach based on self-organization and division of labor in social insects. An experimental scenario for the coordination problem among multiple robots, the robustness of the approaches and the generation of dynamic tasks have been presented and discussed. The particular issues studied are: Threshold models: It presents the experiments conducted to test the response threshold model with the objective to analyze the system performance index, for the problem of the distribution of heterogeneous multitasks in multi-robot systems; also has been introduced additive noise in the number of pending loads and has been generated dynamic tasks over time. Learning automata methods: It describes the experiments to test the learning automata-based probabilistic algorithms. The approach was tested to evaluate the system performance index with additive noise and with dynamic tasks generation for the same problem of the distribution of heterogeneous multi-tasks in multi-robot systems. Ant colony optimization: The goal of the experiments presented is to test the ant colony optimization-based deterministic algorithms, to achieve the distribution of heterogeneous multi-tasks in multi-robot systems. In the experiments performed, the system performance index is evaluated by introducing additive noise and dynamic tasks generation over time.

Jointly multi-user detection and channel estimation with genetic algorithm

This work aims at proposing the use of the evolutionary computation methodology in order to jointly solve the multiuser channel estimation (MuChE) and detection problems at its maximum-likelihood, both related to the direct sequence code division multiple access (DS/CDMA). The effectiveness of the proposed heuristic approach is proven by comparing performance and complexity merit figures with that obtained by traditional methods found in literature. Simulation results considering genetic algorithm (GA) applied to multipath, DS/CDMA and MuChE and multi-user detection (MuD) show that the proposed genetic algorithm multi-user channel estimation (GAMuChE) yields a normalized mean square error estimation (nMSE) inferior to 11%, under slowly varying multipath fading channels, large range of Doppler frequencies and medium system load, it exhibits lower complexity when compared to both maximum likelihood multi-user channel estimation (MLMuChE) and gradient descent method (GrdDsc). A near-optimum multi-user detector (MuD) based on the genetic algorithm (GAMuD), also proposed in this work, provides a significant reduction in the computational complexity when compared to the optimum multi-user detector (OMuD). In addition, the complexity of the GAMuChE and GAMuD algorithms were (jointly) analyzed in terms of number of operations necessary to reach the convergence, and compared to other jointly MuChE and MuD strategies. The joint GAMuChE-GAMuD scheme can be regarded as a promising alternative for implementing third-generation (3G) and fourth-generation (4G) wireless systems in the near future. Copyright (C) 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

A hybrid genetic algorithm for the multi-mode resource-constrained project scheduling

A construction project is a group of discernible tasks or activities that are conduct-ed in a coordinated effort to accomplish one or more objectives. Construction projects re-quire varying levels of cost, time and other resources. To plan and schedule a construction project, activities must be defined sufficiently. The level of detail determines the number of activities contained within the project plan and schedule. So, finding feasible schedules which efficiently use scarce resources is a challenging task within project management. In this context, the well-known Resource Constrained Project Scheduling Problem (RCPSP) has been studied during the last decades. In the RCPSP the activities of a project have to be scheduled such that the makespan of the project is minimized. So, the technological precedence constraints have to be observed as well as limitations of the renewable resources required to accomplish the activities. Once started, an activity may not be interrupted. This problem has been extended to a more realistic model, the multi-mode resource con-strained project scheduling problem (MRCPSP), where each activity can be performed in one out of several modes. Each mode of an activity represents an alternative way of combining different levels of resource requirements with a related duration. Each renewable resource has a limited availability for the entire project such as manpower and machines. This paper presents a hybrid genetic algorithm for the multi-mode resource-constrained pro-ject scheduling problem, in which multiple execution modes are available for each of the ac-tivities of the project. The objective function is the minimization of the construction project completion time. To solve the problem, is applied a two-level genetic algorithm, which makes use of two separate levels and extend the parameterized schedule generation scheme. It is evaluated the quality of the schedules and presents detailed comparative computational re-sults for the MRCPSP, which reveal that this approach is a competitive algorithm.

A two-level genetic algorithm for the multi-mode resource-constrained project scheduling problem

This paper presents a genetic algorithm for the multimode resource-constrained project scheduling problem (MRCPSP), in which multiple execution modes are available for each of the activities of the project. The objective function is the minimization of the construction project completion time. To solve the problem, is applied a two-level genetic algorithm, which makes use of two separate levels and extend the parameterized schedule generation scheme by introducing an improvement procedure. It is evaluated the quality of the schedule and present detailed comparative computational results for the MRCPSP, which reveal that this approach is a competitive algorithm.