Efficient Monte Carlo methods for multi-dimensional learning with classifier chains

Multi-dimensional classification (MDC) is the supervised learning problem where an instance is associated with multiple classes, rather than with a single class, as in traditional classification problems. Since these classes are often strongly correlated, modeling the dependencies between them allows MDC methods to improve their performance – at the expense of an increased computational cost. In this paper we focus on the classifier chains (CC) approach for modeling dependencies, one of the most popular and highest-performing methods for multi-label classification (MLC), a particular case of MDC which involves only binary classes (i.e., labels). The original CC algorithm makes a greedy approximation, and is fast but tends to propagate errors along the chain. Here we present novel Monte Carlo schemes, both for finding a good chain sequence and performing efficient inference. Our algorithms remain tractable for high-dimensional data sets and obtain the best predictive performance across several real data sets.

Air quality modeling and mortality impact of fine particles reduction policies in Spain

Background: In recent years, Spain has implemented a number of air quality control measures that are expected to lead to a future reduction in fine particle concentrations and an ensuing positive impact on public health. Objectives: We aimed to assess the impact on mortality attributable to a reduction in fine particle levels in Spain in 2014 in relation to the estimated level for 2007. Methods: To estimate exposure, we constructed fine particle distribution models for Spain for 2007 (reference scenario) and 2014 (projected scenario) with a spatial resolution of 16x16 km2. In a second step, we used the concentration-response functions proposed by cohort studies carried out in Europe (European Study of Cohorts for Air Pollution Effects and Rome longitudinal cohort) and North America (American Cancer Society cohort, Harvard Six Cities study and Canadian national cohort) to calculate the number of attributable annual deaths corresponding to all causes, all non-accidental causes, ischemic heart disease and lung cancer among persons aged over 25 years (2005-2007 mortality rate data). We examined the effect of the Spanish demographic shift in our analysis using 2007 and 2012 population figures. Results: Our model suggested that there would be a mean overall reduction in fine particle levels of 1mg/m3 by 2014. Taking into account 2007 population data, between 8 and 15 all-cause deaths per 100,000 population could be postponed annually by the expected reduction in fine particle levels. For specific subgroups, estimates varied from 10 to 30 deaths for all non-accidental causes, from 1 to 5 for lung cancer, and from 2 to 6 for ischemic heart disease. The expected burden of preventable mortality would be even higher in the future due to the Spanish population growth. Taking into account the population older than 30 years in 2012, the absolute mortality impact estimate would increase approximately by 18%. Conclusions: Effective implementation of air quality measures in Spain, in a scenario with a short-term projection, would amount to an appreciable decline infine particle concentrations, and this, in turn, would lead to notable health-related benefits. Recent European cohort studies strengthen the evidence of an association between long-term exposure to fine particles and health effects, and could enhance the health impact quantification in Europe. Air quality models can contribute to improved assessment of air pollution health impact estimates, particularly in study areas without air pollution monitoring data.

Multiscale modeling of the plastic behaviour in single crystal tungsten: from atomistic to crystal plasticity simulations

En una planta de fusión, los materiales en contacto con el plasma así como los materiales de primera pared experimentan condiciones particularmente hostiles al estar expuestos a altos flujos de partículas, neutrones y grandes cargas térmicas. Como consecuencia de estas diferentes y complejas condiciones de trabajo, el estudio, desarrollo y diseño de estos materiales es uno de los más importantes retos que ha surgido en los últimos años para la comunidad científica en el campo de los materiales y la energía. Debido a su baja tasa de erosión, alta resistencia al sputtering, alta conductividad térmica, muy alto punto de fusión y baja retención de tritio, el tungsteno (wolframio) es un importante candidato como material de primera pared y como posible material estructural avanzado en fusión por confinamiento magnético e inercial. Sin embargo, el tiempo de vida del tungsteno viene controlado por diversos factores como son su respuesta termo-mecánica en la superficie, la posibilidad de fusión y el fallo por acumulación de helio. Es por ello que el tiempo de vida limitado por la respuesta mecánica del tungsteno (W), y en particular su fragilidad, sean dos importantes aspectos que tienes que ser investigados. El comportamiento plástico en materiales refractarios con estructura cristalina cúbica centrada en las caras (bcc) como el tungsteno está gobernado por las dislocaciones de tipo tornillo a escala atómica y por conjuntos e interacciones de dislocaciones a escalas más grandes. El modelado de este complejo comportamiento requiere la aplicación de métodos capaces de resolver de forma rigurosa cada una de las escalas. El trabajo que se presenta en esta tesis propone un modelado multiescala que es capaz de dar respuestas ingenieriles a las solicitudes técnicas del tungsteno, y que a su vez está apoyado por la rigurosa física subyacente a extensas simulaciones atomísticas. En primer lugar, las propiedades estáticas y dinámicas de las dislocaciones de tipo tornillo en cinco potenciales interatómicos de tungsteno son comparadas, determinando cuáles de ellos garantizan una mayor fidelidad física y eficiencia computacional. Las grandes tasas de deformación asociadas a las técnicas de dinámica molecular hacen que las funciones de movilidad de las dislocaciones obtenidas no puedan ser utilizadas en los siguientes pasos del modelado multiescala. En este trabajo, proponemos dos métodos alternativos para obtener las funciones de movilidad de las dislocaciones: un modelo Monte Cario cinético y expresiones analíticas. El conjunto de parámetros necesarios para formular el modelo de Monte Cario cinético y la ley de movilidad analítica son calculados atomísticamente. Estos parámetros incluyen, pero no se limitan a: la determinación de las entalpias y energías de formación de las parejas de escalones que forman las dislocaciones, la parametrización de los efectos de no Schmid característicos en materiales bcc,etc. Conociendo la ley de movilidad de las dislocaciones en función del esfuerzo aplicado y la temperatura, se introduce esta relación como ecuación de flujo dentro de un modelo de plasticidad cristalina. La predicción del modelo sobre la dependencia del límite de fluencia con la temperatura es validada experimentalmente con ensayos uniaxiales en tungsteno monocristalino. A continuación, se calcula el límite de fluencia al aplicar ensayos uniaxiales de tensión para un conjunto de orientaciones cristalográticas dentro del triángulo estándar variando la tasa de deformación y la temperatura de los ensayos. Finalmente, y con el objetivo de ser capaces de predecir una respuesta más dúctil del tungsteno para una variedad de estados de carga, se realizan ensayos biaxiales de tensión sobre algunas de las orientaciones cristalográficas ya estudiadas en función de la temperatura.-------------------------------------------------------------------------ABSTRACT ----------------------------------------------------------Tungsten and tungsten alloys are being considered as leading candidates for structural and functional materials in future fusion energy devices. The most attractive properties of tungsten for the design of magnetic and inertial fusion energy reactors are its high melting point, high thermal conductivity, low sputtering yield and low longterm disposal radioactive footprint. However, tungsten also presents a very low fracture toughness, mostly associated with inter-granular failure and bulk plasticity, that limits its applications. As a result of these various and complex conditions of work, the study, development and design of these materials is one of the most important challenges that have emerged in recent years to the scientific community in the field of materials for energy applications. The plastic behavior of body-centered cubic (bcc) refractory metals like tungsten is governed by the kink-pair mediated thermally activated motion of h¿ (\1 11)i screw dislocations on the atomistic scale and by ensembles and interactions of dislocations at larger scales. Modeling this complex behavior requires the application of methods capable of resolving rigorously each relevant scale. The work presented in this thesis proposes a multiscale model approach that gives engineering-level responses to the technical specifications required for the use of tungsten in fusion energy reactors, and it is also supported by the rigorous underlying physics of extensive atomistic simulations. First, the static and dynamic properties of screw dislocations in five interatomic potentials for tungsten are compared, determining which of these ensure greater physical fidelity and computational efficiency. The large strain rates associated with molecular dynamics techniques make the dislocation mobility functions obtained not suitable to be used in the next steps of the multiscale model. Therefore, it is necessary to employ mobility laws obtained from a different method. In this work, we suggest two alternative methods to get the dislocation mobility functions: a kinetic Monte Carlo model and analytical expressions. The set of parameters needed to formulate the kinetic Monte Carlo model and the analytical mobility law are calculated atomistically. These parameters include, but are not limited to: enthalpy and energy barriers of kink-pairs as a function of the stress, width of the kink-pairs, non-Schmid effects ( both twinning-antitwinning asymmetry and non-glide stresses), etc. The function relating dislocation velocity with applied stress and temperature is used as the main source of constitutive information into a dislocation-based crystal plasticity framework. We validate the dependence of the yield strength with the temperature predicted by the model against existing experimental data of tensile tests in singlecrystal tungsten, with excellent agreement between the simulations and the measured data. We then extend the model to a number of crystallographic orientations uniformly distributed in the standard triangle and study the effects of temperature and strain rate. Finally, we perform biaxial tensile tests and provide the yield surface as a function of the temperature for some of the crystallographic orientations explored in the uniaxial tensile tests.

Analysis of Contributions to NO2 Ambient Air Quality Levels in Madrid City (Spain) through Modeling. Implications for the Development of Policies and Air Quality Monitoring

As environmental standards become more stringent (e.g. European Directive 2008/50/EC), more reliable and sophisticated modeling tools are needed to simulate measures and plans that may effectively tackle air quality exceedances, common in large cities across Europe, particularly for NO2. Modeling air quality in urban areas is rather complex since observed concentration values are a consequence of the interaction of multiple sources and processes that involve a wide range of spatial and temporal scales. Besides a consistent and robust multi-scale modeling system, comprehensive and flexible emission inventories are needed. This paper discusses the application of the WRF-SMOKE-CMAQ system to the Madrid city (Spain) to assess the contribution of the main emitting sectors in the region. A detailed emission inventory was compiled for this purpose. This inventory relies on bottom-up methods for the most important sources. It is coupled with the regional traffic model and it makes use of an extensive database of industrial, commercial and residential combustion plants. Less relevant sources are downscaled from national or regional inventories. This paper reports the methodology and main results of the source apportionment study performed to understand the origin of pollution (main sectors and geographical areas) and define clear targets for the abatement strategy. Finally the structure of the air quality monitoring is analyzed and discussed to identify options to improve the monitoring strategy not only in the Madrid city but the whole metropolitan area.

Optimization methods for the operating room management under uncertainty: stochastic programming vs. decomposition approach

The operating theatres are the engine of the hospitals; proper management of the operating rooms and its staff represents a great challenge for managers and its results impact directly in the budget of the hospital. This work presents a MILP model for the efficient schedule of multiple surgeries in Operating Rooms (ORs) during a working day. This model considers multiple surgeons and ORs and different types of surgeries. Stochastic strategies are also implemented for taking into account the uncertain in surgery durations (pre-incision, incision, post-incision times). In addition, a heuristic-based methods and a MILP decomposition approach is proposed for solving large-scale ORs scheduling problems in computational efficient way. All these computer-aided strategies has been implemented in AIMMS, as an advanced modeling and optimization software, developing a user friendly solution tool for the operating room management under uncertainty.

Blood flow and oxygen delivery to human brain during functional activity: Theoretical modeling and experimental data

Coupling of cerebral blood flow (CBF) and cerebral metabolic rate for oxygen (CMRO2) in physiologically activated brain states remains the subject of debates. Recently it was suggested that CBF is tightly coupled to oxidative metabolism in a nonlinear fashion. As part of this hypothesis, mathematical models of oxygen delivery to the brain have been described in which disproportionately large increases in CBF are necessary to sustain even small increases in CMRO2 during activation. We have explored the coupling of CBF and oxygen delivery by using two complementary methods. First, a more complex mathematical model was tested that differs from those recently described in that no assumptions were made regarding tissue oxygen level. Second, [15O] water CBF positron emission tomography (PET) studies in nine healthy subjects were conducted during states of visual activation and hypoxia to examine the relationship of CBF and oxygen delivery. In contrast to previous reports, our model showed adequate tissue levels of oxygen could be maintained without the need for increased CBF or oxygen delivery. Similarly, the PET studies demonstrated that the regional increase in CBF during visual activation was not affected by hypoxia. These findings strongly indicate that the increase in CBF associated with physiological activation is regulated by factors other than local requirements in oxygen.

Modeling nonthermal emission from stellar bow shocks (Research Note)

Context. Runaway O- and early B-type stars passing through the interstellar medium at supersonic velocities and characterized by strong stellar winds may produce bow shocks that can serve as particle acceleration sites. Previous theoretical models predict the production of high-energy photons by nonthermal radiative processes, but their efficiency is still debated. Aims. We aim to test and explain the possibility of emission from the bow shocks formed by runaway stars traveling through the interstellar medium by using previous theoretical models. Methods. We applied our model to AE Aurigae, the first reported star with an X-ray detected bow shock, to BD+43 3654, in which the observations failed in detecting high-energy emission, and to the transition phase of a supergiant star in the late stages of its life. Results. From our analysis, we confirm that the X-ray emission from the bow shock produced by AE Aurigae can be explained by inverse Compton processes involving the infrared photons of the heated dust. We also predict low high-energy flux emission from the bow shock produced by BD+43 3654, and the possibility of high-energy emission from the bow shock formed by a supergiant star during the transition phase from blue to red supergiant. Conclusions. Bow shocks formed by different types of runaway stars are revealed as a new possible source of high-energy photons in our neighborhood.

Modeling nonthermal emission from stellar bow shocks (Research Note)

Context. Runaway O- and early B-type stars passing through the interstellar medium at supersonic velocities and characterized by strong stellar winds may produce bow shocks that can serve as particle acceleration sites. Previous theoretical models predict the production of high-energy photons by nonthermal radiative processes, but their efficiency is still debated. Aims. We aim to test and explain the possibility of emission from the bow shocks formed by runaway stars traveling through the interstellar medium by using previous theoretical models. Methods. We applied our model to AE Aurigae, the first reported star with an X-ray detected bow shock, to BD+43 3654, in which the observations failed in detecting high-energy emission, and to the transition phase of a supergiant star in the late stages of its life. Results. From our analysis, we confirm that the X-ray emission from the bow shock produced by AE Aurigae can be explained by inverse Compton processes involving the infrared photons of the heated dust. We also predict low high-energy flux emission from the bow shock produced by BD+43 3654, and the possibility of high-energy emission from the bow shock formed by a supergiant star during the transition phase from blue to red supergiant. Conclusions. Bow shocks formed by different types of runaway stars are revealed as a new possible source of high-energy photons in our neighborhood.

Numerical modeling of electromagnetic coupling phenomena in the vicinities of overhead power transmission lines.

Electromagnetic coupling phenomena between overhead power transmission lines and other nearby structures are inevitable, especially in densely populated areas. The undesired effects resulting from this proximity are manifold and range from the establishment of hazardous potentials to the outbreak of alternate current corrosion phenomena. The study of this class of problems is necessary for ensuring security in the vicinities of the interaction zone and also to preserve the integrity of the equipment and of the devices there present. However, the complete modeling of this type of application requires the three- -dimensional representation of the region of interest and needs specific numerical methods for field computation. In this work, the modeling of problems arising from the flow of electrical currents in the ground (the so-called conductive coupling) will be addressed with the finite element method. Those resulting from the time variation of the electromagnetic fields (the so-called inductive coupling) will be considered as well, and they will be treated with the generalized PEEC (Partial Element Equivalent Circuit) method. More specifically, a special boundary condition on the electric potential is proposed for truncating the computational domain in the finite element analysis of conductive coupling problems, and a complete PEEC formulation for modeling inductive coupling problems is presented. Test configurations of increasing complexities are considered for validating the foregoing approaches. These works aim to provide a contribution to the modeling of this class of problems, which tend to become common with the expansion of power grids.

Models and methods for the direct simulation of rough and micropatterned surfaces

Friction in hydrodynamic bearings are a major source of losses in car engines ([69]). The extreme loading conditions in those bearings lead to contact between the matching surfaces. In such conditions not only the overall geometry of the bearing is relevant, but also the small-scale topography of the surface determines the bearing performance. The possibility of shaping the surface of lubricated bearings down to the micrometer ([57]) opened the question of whether friction can be reduced by mean of micro-textures, with mixed results. This work focuses in the development of efficient numerical methods to solve thin film (lubrication) problems down to the roughness scale of measured surfaces. Due to the high velocities and the convergent-divergent geometries of hydrodynamic bearings, cavitation takes place. To treat cavitation in the lubrication problem the Elrod- Adams model is used, a mass-conserving model which has proven in careful numerical ([12]) and experimental ([119]) tests to be essential to obtain physically meaningful results. Another relevant aspect of the modeling is that the bearing inertial effects are considered, which is necessary to correctly simulate moving textures. As an application, the effects of micro-texturing the moving surface of the bearing were studied. Realistic values are assumed for the physical parameters defining the problems. Extensive fundamental studies were carried out in the hydrodynamic lubrication regime. Mesh-converged simulations considering the topography of real measured surfaces were also run, and the validity of the lubrication approximation was assessed for such rough surfaces.

MDWEnet: a practical approach to achieving interoperability of model-driven web engineering methods

Current model-driven Web Engineering approaches (such as OO-H, UWE or WebML) provide a set of methods and supporting tools for a systematic design and development of Web applications. Each method addresses different concerns using separate models (content, navigation, presentation, business logic, etc.), and provide model compilers that produce most of the logic and Web pages of the application from these models. However, these proposals also have some limitations, especially for exchanging models or representing further modeling concerns, such as architectural styles, technology independence, or distribution. A possible solution to these issues is provided by making model-driven Web Engineering proposals interoperate, being able to complement each other, and to exchange models between the different tools. MDWEnet is a recent initiative started by a small group of researchers working on model-driven Web Engineering (MDWE). Its goal is to improve current practices and tools for the model-driven development of Web applications for better interoperability. The proposal is based on the strengths of current model-driven Web Engineering methods, and the existing experience and knowledge in the field. This paper presents the background, motivation, scope, and objectives of MDWEnet. Furthermore, it reports on the MDWEnet results and achievements so far, and its future plan of actions.

A Comparative Study of Registration Methods for RGB-D Video of Static Scenes

The use of RGB-D sensors for mapping and recognition tasks in robotics or, in general, for virtual reconstruction has increased in recent years. The key aspect of these kinds of sensors is that they provide both depth and color information using the same device. In this paper, we present a comparative analysis of the most important methods used in the literature for the registration of subsequent RGB-D video frames in static scenarios. The analysis begins by explaining the characteristics of the registration problem, dividing it into two representative applications: scene modeling and object reconstruction. Then, a detailed experimentation is carried out to determine the behavior of the different methods depending on the application. For both applications, we used standard datasets and a new one built for object reconstruction.

Overcoming performance and convergence issues of discrete transform based modeling of crosslinking classical and reversible deactivated radical polymerizations

Population balances of polymer species in terms 'of discrete transforms with respect to counts of groups lead to tractable first order partial differential equations when ali rate constants are independent of chain length and loop formation is negligible [l]. Average molecular weights in the absence ofgelation are long known to be readily found through integration of an initial value problem. The extension to size distribution prediction is also feasible, but its performance is often lower to the one provided by methods based upon real chain length domain [2]. Moreover, the absence ofagood starting procedure and a higher numerical sensitivity hás decisively impaired its application to non-linear reversibly deactivated polymerizations, namely NMRP [3].

Logical Modeling and Dynamical Analysis of Cellular Networks

The logical (or logic) formalism is increasingly used to model regulatory and signaling networks. Complementing these applications, several groups contributed various methods and tools to support the definition and analysis of logical models. After an introduction to the logical modeling framework and to several of its variants, we review here a number of recent methodological advances to ease the analysis of large and intricate networks. In particular, we survey approaches to determine model attractors and their reachability properties, to assess the dynamical impact of variations of external signals, and to consistently reduce large models. To illustrate these developments, we further consider several published logical models for two important biological processes, namely the differentiation of T helper cells and the control of mammalian cell cycle.

On the development of a theory of traveler attitude-behavior interrelationships volume III: executive summary; overview of methods, results, and conclusions. Final report.

Transportation Systems Center, Cambridge, Mass.