Search for new phenomena in events with three or more charged leptons in pp collisions at TeV with the ATLAS detector

A generic search for anomalous production of events with at least three charged leptons is presented. The data sample consists of pp collisions at s√=8 TeV collected in 2012 by the ATLAS experiment at the CERN Large Hadron Collider, and corresponds to an integrated luminosity of 20.3 fb−1. Events are required to have at least three selected lepton candidates, at least two of which must be electrons or muons, while the third may be a hadronically decaying tau. Selected events are categorized based on their lepton flavour content and signal regions are constructed using several kinematic variables of interest. No significant deviations from Standard Model predictions are observed. Model-independent upper limits on contributions from beyond the Standard Model phenomena are provided for each signal region, along with prescription to re-interpret the limits for any model. Constraints are also placed on models predicting doubly charged Higgs bosons and excited leptons. For doubly charged Higgs bosons decaying to eτ or μτ, lower limits on the mass are set at 400 GeV at 95% confidence level. For excited leptons, constraints are provided as functions of both the mass of the excited state and the compositeness scale Λ, with the strongest mass constraints arising in regions where the mass equals Λ. In such scenarios, lower mass limits are set at 3.0 TeV for excited electrons and muons, 2.5 TeV for excited taus, and 1.6 TeV for every excited-neutrino flavour.

Search for the associated production of the Higgs boson with a top quark pair in multilepton final states with the ATLAS detector

A search for the associated production of the Higgs boson with a top quark pair is performed in multilepton final states using 20.3 fb−1 of proton-proton collision data recorded by the ATLAS experiment at s√=8 TeV at the Large Hadron Collider. Five final states, targeting the decays H→WW∗, ττ, and ZZ∗, are examined for the presence of the Standard Model (SM) Higgs boson: two same-charge light leptons (e or μ) without a hadronically decaying τ lepton; three light leptons; two same-charge light leptons with a hadronically decaying τ lepton; four light leptons; and one light lepton and two hadronically decaying τ leptons. No significant excess of events is observed above the background expectation. The best fit for the tt¯H production cross section, assuming a Higgs boson mass of 125 GeV, is 2.1+1.4−1.2 times the SM expectation, and the observed (expected) upper limit at the 95% confidence level is 4.7 (2.4) times the SM rate. The p-value for compatibility with the background-only hypothesis is 1.8σ; the expectation in the presence of a Standard Model signal is 0.9σ.

Search for metastable heavy charged particles with large ionisation energy loss in pp collisions at root s=8 TeV using the ATLAS experiment

Many extensions of the Standard Model predict the existence of charged heavy long-lived particles, such as R-hadrons or charginos. These particles, if produced at the Large Hadron Collider, should be moving non-relativistically and are therefore identifiable through the measurement of an anomalously large specific energy loss in the ATLAS pixel detector. Measuring heavy long-lived particles through their track parameters in the vicinity of the interaction vertex provides sensitivity to metastable particles with lifetimes from 0.6 ns to 30 ns. A search for such particles with the ATLAS detector at the Large Hadron Collider is presented, based on a data sample corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 18.4 fb−1 of pp collisions at s√ = 8 TeV. No significant deviation from the Standard Model background expectation is observed, and lifetime-dependent upper limits on R-hadrons and chargino production are set. Gluino R-hadrons with 10 ns lifetime and masses up to 1185 GeV are excluded at 95% confidence level, and so are charginos with 15 ns lifetime and masses up to 482 GeV.

Study of the spin and parity of the Higgs boson in diboson decays with the ATLAS detector

Studies of the spin, parity and tensor couplings of the Higgs boson in the H→ZZ∗→4ℓ , H→WW∗→eνμν and H→γγ decay processes at the LHC are presented. The investigations are based on 25 fb−1 of pp collision data collected by the ATLAS experiment at s√=7 TeV and s√=8 TeV. The Standard Model (SM) Higgs boson hypothesis, corresponding to the quantum numbers JP=0+, is tested against several alternative spin scenarios, including non-SM spin-0 and spin-2 models with universal and non-universal couplings to fermions and vector bosons. All tested alternative models are excluded in favour of the SM Higgs boson hypothesis at more than 99.9% confidence level. Using the H→ZZ∗→4ℓ and H→WW∗→eνμν decays, the tensor structure of the HVV interaction in the spin-0 hypothesis is also investigated. The observed distributions of variables sensitive to the non-SM tensor couplings are compatible with the SM predictions and constraints on the non-SM couplings are derived.

Measurements of the top quark branching ratios into channels with leptons and quarks with the ATLAS detector

A measurement of the inclusive cross section for top quark pair production in pp collisions using events with an isolated lepton (muon or electron) and a τ lepton decaying to hadrons (τhad) is reported. Measurements of the branching ratios of top quark decays into leptons and jets using events with tt¯ (top antitop) pairs are also reported. Events were recorded with the ATLAS detector at the LHC in pp collisions at a center-of-mass energy of 7 TeV. The collected data sample corresponds to an integrated luminosity of 4.6 fb−1. The inclusive cross section measured using events with an isolated lepton and a τhad is σtt¯=183±9(stat.)±23(syst.)±3(lumi.)pb. The measured top quark branching ratios agree with the Standard Model predictions within the measurement uncertainties of a few percent.

Search for new light gauge bosons in Higgs boson decays to four-lepton final states in pp collisions at s√=8TeV with the ATLAS detector at the LHC

This paper presents a search for Higgs bosons decaying to four leptons, either electrons or muons, via one or two light exotic gauge bosons Zd, H→ZZd→4ℓ or H→ZdZd→4ℓ. The search was performed using pp collision data corresponding to an integrated luminosity of about 20 fb−1 at the center-of-mass energy of s√=8TeV recorded with the ATLAS detector at the Large Hadron Collider. The observed data are well described by the Standard Model prediction. Upper bounds on the branching ratio of H→ZZd→4ℓ and on the kinetic mixing parameter between the Zd and the Standard Model hypercharge gauge boson are set in the range (1--9)×10−5 and (4--17)×10−2 respectively, at 95% confidence level assuming the Standard Model branching ratio of H→ZZ∗→4ℓ, for Zd masses between 15 and 55 GeV. Upper bounds on the effective mass mixing parameter between the Z and the Zd are also set using the branching ratio limits in the H→ZZd→4ℓ search, and are in the range (1.5--8.7)×10−4 for 15Standard Model Higgs boson production cross sections, for Zd masses between 15 and 60 GeV.

Search for Dark Matter in Events with Missing Transverse Momentum and a Higgs Boson Decaying to Two Photons in pp Collisions at root s=8 TeV with the ATLAS Detector

Results of a search for new phenomena in events with large missing transverse momentum and a Higgs boson decaying to two photons are reported. Data from proton--proton collisions at a center-of-mass energy of 8 TeV and corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 20.3 fb−1 have been collected with the ATLAS detector at the LHC. The observed data are well described by the expected Standard Model backgrounds. Upper limits on the cross section of events with large missing transverse momentum and a Higgs boson candidate are also placed. Exclusion limits are presented for models of physics beyond the Standard Model featuring dark-matter candidates.

Pareto-improving optimal capital and labor taxes

We show a standard model where the optimal tax reform is to cut labor taxes and leave capital taxes very high in the short and medium run. Only in the very long run would capital taxes be zero. Our model is a version of Chamley??s, with heterogeneous agents, without lump sum transfers, an upper bound on capital taxes, and a focus on Pareto improving plans. For our calibration labor taxes should be low for the first ten to twenty years, while capital taxes should be at their maximum. This policy ensures that all agents benefit from the tax reform and that capital grows quickly after when the reform begins. Therefore, the long run optimal tax mix is the opposite from the short and medium run tax mix. The initial labor tax cut is financed by deficits that lead to a positive long run level of government debt, reversing the standard prediction that government accumulates savings in models with optimal capital taxes. If labor supply is somewhat elastic benefits from tax reform are high and they can be shifted entirely to capitalists or workers by varying the length of the transition. With inelastic labor supply there is an increasing part of the equilibrium frontier, this means that the scope for benefitting the workers is limited and the total benefits from reforming taxes are much lower.

Comparison of porcine and human coagulation by thrombelastometry.

Introduction: Although the pig is a standard model for the evaluation of various diseases in humans, including coagulopathy, it is not clear whether results in animals can be extrapolated to man.Materials and methods: In 75 anesthetized pigs, we assessed reagent-supported thrombelastometry (ExTEM (R)), platelet-blocked thrombelastometry (FibTEM (R)), and aprotinin thrombelastometry (ApTEM (R)). Results were compared to values from 13 anesthetized humans.Results (median, 95% CI): ExTEM (R) : While clot strength was comparable in pigs (66 mm, 65-67 mm) and in humans (64 mm, 60-68 mm; NS), clotting time in animals was longer (pigs 64 s, 62-66 s; humans 55 s, 49-71 s; P<0.05) and clot formation time shorter (pigs 52 s, 49-54 s; humans 83 s, 67-98 s, P<0.001). The clot lysis index at 30 minutes was lower in animals (96.9%, 95.1-97.3%) than in humans (99.5%, 98.6-99.9%; P<0.001). ApTEM (R) showed no hyperfibrinolysis in animals. Modification of the anesthesia protocol in animals resulted in significant ExTEM (R) changes. FibTEM (R) : Complete platelet inhibition yielded significantly higher platelet contribution to clot strength in pigs (79%, 76-81%) than in humans (73%, 71-77%; P<0.05), whereas fibrinogen contribution to clot strength was higher in humans (27%, 24-29%) than in animals (21%, 19-24%; P<0.05).Conclusions: Maximum clot firmness is comparable in human and porcine blood. However, clot lysis, platelet and fibrinogen contribution to clot strength, as well as initiation and propagation of clotting, are considerably different between pigs and humans. In addition, anesthesic drugs seem to influence thrombelastometry in animals. Accordingly, coagulation abnormalities in pigs subjected to diseases may not necessarily represent the coagulation profile in sick patients. (C) 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Three Essays on the Formation and Impact of Economic Policy

Introduction In my thesis I argue that economic policy is all about economics and politics. Consequently, analysing and understanding economic policy ideally has at least two parts. The economics part, which is centered around the expected impact of a specific policy on the real economy both in terms of efficiency and equity. The insights of this part point into which direction the fine-tuning of economic policies should go. However, fine-tuning of economic policies will be most likely subject to political constraints. That is why, in the politics part, a much better understanding can be gained by taking into account how the incentives of politicians and special interest groups as well as the role played by different institutional features affect the formation of economic policies. The first part and chapter of my thesis concentrates on the efficiency-related impact of economic policies: how does corporate income taxation in general, and corporate income tax progressivity in specific, affect the creation of new firms? Reduced progressivity and flat-rate taxes are in vogue. By 2009, 22 countries are operating flat-rate income tax systems, as do 7 US states and 14 Swiss cantons (for corporate income only). Tax reform proposals in the spirit of the "flat tax" model typically aim to reduce three parameters: the average tax burden, the progressivity of the tax schedule, and the complexity of the tax code. In joint work, Marius Brülhart and I explore the implications of changes in these three parameters on entrepreneurial activity, measured by counts of firm births in a panel of Swiss municipalities. Our results show that lower average tax rates and reduced complexity of the tax code promote firm births. Controlling for these effects, reduced progressivity inhibits firm births. Our reading of these results is that tax progressivity has an insurance effect that facilitates entrepreneurial risk taking. The positive effects of lower tax levels and reduced complexity are estimated to be significantly stronger than the negative effect of reduced progressivity. To the extent that firm births reflect desirable entrepreneurial dynamism, it is not the flattening of tax schedules that is key to successful tax reforms, but the lowering of average tax burdens and the simplification of tax codes. Flatness per se is of secondary importance and even appears to be detrimental to firm births. The second part of my thesis, which corresponds to the second and third chapter, concentrates on how economic policies are formed. By the nature of the analysis, these two chapters draw on a broader literature than the first chapter. Both economists and political scientists have done extensive research on how economic policies are formed. Thereby, researchers in both disciplines have recognised the importance of special interest groups trying to influence policy-making through various channels. In general, economists base their analysis on a formal and microeconomically founded approach, while abstracting from institutional details. In contrast, political scientists' frameworks are generally richer in terms of institutional features but lack the theoretical rigour of economists' approaches. I start from the economist's point of view. However, I try to borrow as much as possible from the findings of political science to gain a better understanding of how economic policies are formed in reality. In the second chapter, I take a theoretical approach and focus on the institutional policy framework to explore how interactions between different political institutions affect the outcome of trade policy in presence of special interest groups' lobbying. Standard political economy theory treats the government as a single institutional actor which sets tariffs by trading off social welfare against contributions from special interest groups seeking industry-specific protection from imports. However, these models lack important (institutional) features of reality. That is why, in my model, I split up the government into a legislative and executive branch which can both be lobbied by special interest groups. Furthermore, the legislative has the option to delegate its trade policy authority to the executive. I allow the executive to compensate the legislative in exchange for delegation. Despite ample anecdotal evidence, bargaining over delegation of trade policy authority has not yet been formally modelled in the literature. I show that delegation has an impact on policy formation in that it leads to lower equilibrium tariffs compared to a standard model without delegation. I also show that delegation will only take place if the lobby is not strong enough to prevent it. Furthermore, the option to delegate increases the bargaining power of the legislative at the expense of the lobbies. Therefore, the findings of this model can shed a light on why the U.S. Congress often practices delegation to the executive. In the final chapter of my thesis, my coauthor, Antonio Fidalgo, and I take a narrower approach and focus on the individual politician level of policy-making to explore how connections to private firms and networks within parliament affect individual politicians' decision-making. Theories in the spirit of the model of the second chapter show how campaign contributions from lobbies to politicians can influence economic policies. There exists an abundant empirical literature that analyses ties between firms and politicians based on campaign contributions. However, the evidence on the impact of campaign contributions is mixed, at best. In our paper, we analyse an alternative channel of influence in the shape of personal connections between politicians and firms through board membership. We identify a direct effect of board membership on individual politicians' voting behaviour and an indirect leverage effect when politicians with board connections influence non-connected peers. We assess the importance of these two effects using a vote in the Swiss parliament on a government bailout of the national airline, Swissair, in 2001, which serves as a natural experiment. We find that both the direct effect of connections to firms and the indirect leverage effect had a strong and positive impact on the probability that a politician supported the government bailout.

A correlation sensitivity analysis of non-life underwriting risk in solvency capital requirement estimation

This paper analyses the impact of using different correlation assumptions between lines of business when estimating the risk-based capital reserve, the Solvency Capital Requirement (SCR), under Solvency II regulations. A case study is presented and the SCR is calculated according to the Standard Model approach. Alternatively, the requirement is then calculated using an Internal Model based on a Monte Carlo simulation of the net underwriting result at a one-year horizon, with copulas being used to model the dependence between lines of business. To address the impact of these model assumptions on the SCR we conduct a sensitivity analysis. We examine changes in the correlation matrix between lines of business and address the choice of copulas. Drawing on aggregate historical data from the Spanish non-life insurance market between 2000 and 2009, we conclude that modifications of the correlation and dependence assumptions have a significant impact on SCR estimation.

Business Cycles, Unemployment Insurance, and the Calibration of Matching Models

This paper points out an empirical puzzle that arises when an RBC economy with a job matching function is used to model unemployment. The standard model can generate sufficiently large cyclical fluctuations in unemployment, or a sufficiently small response of unemployment to labor market policies, but it cannot do both. Variable search and separation, finite UI benefit duration, efficiency wages, and capital all fail to resolve this puzzle. However, both sticky wages and match-specific productivity shocks help the model reproduce the stylized facts: both make the firm's flow of surplus more procyclical, thus making hiring more procyclical too.

Neglected risks, financial innovation, and financial fragility

We present a standard model of financial innovation, in which intermediaries engineer securities with cash flows that investors seek, but modify two assumptions. First, investors (and possibly intermediaries) neglect certain unlikely risks. Second, investors demand securities with safe cash flows. Financial intermediaries cater to these preferences and beliefs by engineering securities perceived to be safe but exposed to neglected risks. Because the risks are neglected, security issuance is excessive. As investors eventually recognize these risks, they fly back to safety of traditional securities and markets become fragile, even without leverage, precisely because the volume of new claims is excessive.

Automated auditory mismatch negativity paradigm improves coma prognostic accuracy after cardiac arrest and therapeutic hypothermia.

PURPOSE: EEG and somatosensory evoked potential are highly predictive of poor outcome after cardiac arrest; their accuracy for good recovery is however low. We evaluated whether addition of an automated mismatch negativity-based auditory discrimination paradigm (ADP) to EEG and somatosensory evoked potential improves prediction of awakening. METHODS: EEG and ADP were prospectively recorded in 30 adults during therapeutic hypothermia and in normothermia. We studied the progression of auditory discrimination on single-trial multivariate analyses from therapeutic hypothermia to normothermia, and its correlation to outcome at 3 months, assessed with cerebral performance categories. RESULTS: At 3 months, 18 of 30 patients (60%) survived; 5 had severe neurologic impairment (cerebral performance categories = 3) and 13 had good recovery (cerebral performance categories = 1-2). All 10 subjects showing improvements of auditory discrimination from therapeutic hypothermia to normothermia regained consciousness: ADP was 100% predictive for awakening. The addition of ADP significantly improved mortality prediction (area under the curve, 0.77 for standard model including clinical examination, EEG, somatosensory evoked potential, versus 0.86 after adding ADP, P = 0.02). CONCLUSIONS: This automated ADP significantly improves early coma prognostic accuracy after cardiac arrest and therapeutic hypothermia. The progression of auditory discrimination is strongly predictive of favorable recovery and appears complementary to existing prognosticators of poor outcome. Before routine implementation, validation on larger cohorts is warranted.

Theoretical notes on bubbles and the current crisis

We explore a view of the crisis as a shock to investor sentiment that led to the collapse of abubble or pyramid scheme in financial markets. We embed this view in a standard model of thefinancial accelerator and explore its empirical and policy implications. In particular, we show howthe model can account for: (i) a gradual and protracted expansionary phase followed by a suddenand sharp recession; (ii) the connection (or lack of connection!) between financial and real economicactivity and; (iii) a fast and strong transmission of shocks across countries. We also use the modelto explore the role of fiscal policy.