Laser Thomson scattering measurements of electron temperature and density in a Hall-effect plasma

Hall-effect thrusters (HETs) are compact electric propulsion devices with high specific impulse used for a variety of space propulsion applications. HET technology is well developed but the electron properties in the discharge are not completely understood, mainly due to the difficulty involved in performing accurate measurements in the discharge. Measurements of electron temperature and density have been performed using electrostatic probes, but presence of the probes can significantly disrupt thruster operation, and thus alter the electron temperature and density. While fast-probe studies have expanded understanding of HET discharges, a non-invasive method of measuring the electron temperature and density in the plasma is highly desirable. An alternative to electrostatic probes is a non-perturbing laser diagnostic technique that measures Thomson scattering from the plasma. Thomson scattering is the process by which photons are elastically scattered from the free electrons in a plasma. Since the electrons have thermal energy their motion causes a Doppler shift in the scattered photons that is proportional to their velocity. Like electrostatic probes, laser Thomson scattering (LTS) can be used to determine the temperature and density of free electrons in the plasma. Since Thomson scattering measures the electron velocity distribution function directly no assumptions of the plasma conditions are required, allowing accurate measurements in anisotropic and non-Maxwellian plasmas. LTS requires a complicated measurement apparatus, but has the potential to provide accurate, non-perturbing measurements of electron temperature and density in HET discharges. In order to assess the feasibility of LTS diagnostics on HETs non-invasive measurements of electron temperature and density in the near-field plume of a Hall thruster were performed using a custom built laser Thomson scattering diagnostic. Laser measurements were processed using a maximum likelihood estimation method and results were compared to conventional electrostatic double probe measurements performed at the same thruster conditions. Electron temperature was found to range from approximately 1 – 40 eV and density ranged from approximately 1.0 x 1017 m-3 to 1.3 x 1018 m-3 over discharge voltages from 250 to 450 V and mass flow rates of 40 to 80 SCCM using xenon propellant.

High precision range estimation techniques for multi-path wireless environments

Range estimation is the core of many positioning systems such as radar, and Wireless Local Positioning Systems (WLPS). The estimation of range is achieved by estimating Time-of-Arrival (TOA). TOA represents the signal propagation delay between a transmitter and a receiver. Thus, error in TOA estimation causes degradation in range estimation performance. In wireless environments, noise, multipath, and limited bandwidth reduce TOA estimation performance. TOA estimation algorithms that are designed for wireless environments aim to improve the TOA estimation performance by mitigating the effect of closely spaced paths in practical (positive) signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) regions. Limited bandwidth avoids the discrimination of closely spaced paths. This reduces TOA estimation performance. TOA estimation methods are evaluated as a function of SNR, bandwidth, and the number of reflections in multipath wireless environments, as well as their complexity. In this research, a TOA estimation technique based on Blind signal Separation (BSS) is proposed. This frequency domain method estimates TOA in wireless multipath environments for a given signal bandwidth. The structure of the proposed technique is presented and its complexity and performance are theoretically evaluated. It is depicted that the proposed method is not sensitive to SNR, number of reflections, and bandwidth. In general, as bandwidth increases, TOA estimation performance improves. However, spectrum is the most valuable resource in wireless systems and usually a large portion of spectrum to support high performance TOA estimation is not available. In addition, the radio frequency (RF) components of wideband systems suffer from high cost and complexity. Thus, a novel, multiband positioning structure is proposed. The proposed technique uses the available (non-contiguous) bands to support high performance TOA estimation. This system incorporates the capabilities of cognitive radio (CR) systems to sense the available spectrum (also called white spaces) and to incorporate white spaces for high-performance localization. First, contiguous bands that are divided into several non-equal, narrow sub-bands that possess the same SNR are concatenated to attain an accuracy corresponding to the equivalent full band. Two radio architectures are proposed and investigated: the signal is transmitted over available spectrum either simultaneously (parallel concatenation) or sequentially (serial concatenation). Low complexity radio designs that handle the concatenation process sequentially and in parallel are introduced. Different TOA estimation algorithms that are applicable to multiband scenarios are studied and their performance is theoretically evaluated and compared to simulations. Next, the results are extended to non-contiguous, non-equal sub-bands with the same SNR. These are more realistic assumptions in practical systems. The performance and complexity of the proposed technique is investigated as well. This study’s results show that selecting bandwidth, center frequency, and SNR levels for each sub-band can adapt positioning accuracy.

Integration of Truncated Distributions in Exponential Family with Simulation Models of Logistics and Supply Chain Management

Truncated distributions of the exponential family have great influence in the simulation models. This paper discusses the truncated Weibull distribution specifically. The truncation of the distribution is achieved by the Maximum Likelihood Estimation method or combined with the expectation and variance expressions. After the fitting of distribution, the goodness-of-fit tests (the Chi-Square test and the Kolmogorov-Smirnov test) are executed to rule out the rejected hypotheses. Finally the distributions are integrated in various simulation models, e. g. shipment consolidation model, to compare the influence of truncated and original versions of Weibull distribution on the model.

Detection of nonrandom association of alleles from the distribution of the number of heterozygous loci in a sample.

The distribution of the number of heterozygous loci in two randomly chosen gametes or in a random diploid zygote provides information regarding the nonrandom association of alleles among different genetic loci. Two alternative statistics may be employed for detection of nonrandom association of genes of different loci when observations are made on these distributions: observed variance of the number of heterozygous loci (s2k) and a goodness-of-fit criterion (X2) to contrast the observed distribution with that expected under the hypothesis of random association of genes. It is shown, by simulation, that s2k is statistically more efficient than X2 to detect a given extent of nonrandom association. Asymptotic normality of s2k is justified, and X2 is shown to follow a chi-square (chi 2) distribution with partial loss of degrees of freedom arising because of estimation of parameters from the marginal gene frequency data. Whenever direct evaluations of linkage disequilibrium values are possible, tests based on maximum likelihood estimators of linkage disequilibria require a smaller sample size (number of zygotes or gametes) to detect a given level of nonrandom association in comparison with that required if such tests are conducted on the basis of s2k. Summarization of multilocus genotype (or haplotype) data, into the different number of heterozygous loci classes, thus, amounts to appreciable loss of information.

Population genetics of VNTR loci and their applications in evolutionary studies

Variable number of tandem repeats (VNTR) are genetic loci at which short sequence motifs are found repeated different numbers of times among chromosomes. To explore the potential utility of VNTR loci in evolutionary studies, I have conducted a series of studies to address the following questions: (1) What are the population genetic properties of these loci? (2) What are the mutational mechanisms of repeat number change at these loci? (3) Can DNA profiles be used to measure the relatedness between a pair of individuals? (4) Can DNA fingerprint be used to measure the relatedness between populations in evolutionary studies? (5) Can microsatellite and short tandem repeat (STR) loci which mutate stepwisely be used in evolutionary analyses?^ A large number of VNTR loci typed in many populations were studied by means of statistical methods developed recently. The results of this work indicate that there is no significant departure from Hardy-Weinberg expectation (HWE) at VNTR loci in most of the human populations examined, and the departure from HWE in some VNTR loci are not solely caused by the presence of population sub-structure.^ A statistical procedure is developed to investigate the mutational mechanisms of VNTR loci by studying the allele frequency distributions of these loci. Comparisons of frequency distribution data on several hundreds VNTR loci with the predictions of two mutation models demonstrated that there are differences among VNTR loci grouped by repeat unit sizes.^ By extending the ITO method, I derived the distribution of the number of shared bands between individuals with any kinship relationship. A maximum likelihood estimation procedure is proposed to estimate the relatedness between individuals from the observed number of shared bands between them.^ It was believed that classical measures of genetic distance are not applicable to analysis of DNA fingerprints which reveal many minisatellite loci simultaneously in the genome, because the information regarding underlying alleles and loci is not available. I proposed a new measure of genetic distance based on band sharing between individuals that is applicable to DNA fingerprint data.^ To address the concern that microsatellite and STR loci may not be useful for evolutionary studies because of the convergent nature of their mutation mechanisms, by a theoretical study as well as by computer simulation, I conclude that the possible bias caused by the convergent mutations can be corrected, and a novel measure of genetic distance that makes the correction is suggested. In summary, I conclude that hypervariable VNTR loci are useful in evolutionary studies of closely related populations or species, especially in the study of human evolution and the history of geographic dispersal of Homo sapiens. (Abstract shortened by UMI.) ^

Models of DNA sequence evolution

Models of DNA sequence evolution and methods for estimating evolutionary distances are needed for studying the rate and pattern of molecular evolution and for inferring the evolutionary relationships of organisms or genes. In this dissertation, several new models and methods are developed.^ The rate variation among nucleotide sites: To obtain unbiased estimates of evolutionary distances, the rate heterogeneity among nucleotide sites of a gene should be considered. Commonly, it is assumed that the substitution rate varies among sites according to a gamma distribution (gamma model) or, more generally, an invariant+gamma model which includes some invariable sites. A maximum likelihood (ML) approach was developed for estimating the shape parameter of the gamma distribution $(\alpha)$ and/or the proportion of invariable sites $(\theta).$ Computer simulation showed that (1) under the gamma model, $\alpha$ can be well estimated from 3 or 4 sequences if the sequence length is long; and (2) the distance estimate is unbiased and robust against violations of the assumptions of the invariant+gamma model.^ However, this ML method requires a huge amount of computational time and is useful only for less than 6 sequences. Therefore, I developed a fast method for estimating $\alpha,$ which is easy to implement and requires no knowledge of tree. A computer program was developed for estimating $\alpha$ and evolutionary distances, which can handle the number of sequences as large as 30.^ Evolutionary distances under the stationary, time-reversible (SR) model: The SR model is a general model of nucleotide substitution, which assumes (i) stationary nucleotide frequencies and (ii) time-reversibility. It can be extended to SRV model which allows rate variation among sites. I developed a method for estimating the distance under the SR or SRV model, as well as the variance-covariance matrix of distances. Computer simulation showed that the SR method is better than a simpler method when the sequence length $L>1,000$ bp and is robust against deviations from time-reversibility. As expected, when the rate varies among sites, the SRV method is much better than the SR method.^ The evolutionary distances under nonstationary nucleotide frequencies: The statistical properties of the paralinear and LogDet distances under nonstationary nucleotide frequencies were studied. First, I developed formulas for correcting the estimation biases of the paralinear and LogDet distances. The performances of these formulas and the formulas for sampling variances were examined by computer simulation. Second, I developed a method for estimating the variance-covariance matrix of the paralinear distance, so that statistical tests of phylogenies can be conducted when the nucleotide frequencies are nonstationary. Third, a new method for testing the molecular clock hypothesis was developed in the nonstationary case. ^

Analysis of recurrent failure times: A time-dependent Yule process approach

Analysis of recurrent events has been widely discussed in medical, health services, insurance, and engineering areas in recent years. This research proposes to use a nonhomogeneous Yule process with the proportional intensity assumption to model the hazard function on recurrent events data and the associated risk factors. This method assumes that repeated events occur for each individual, with given covariates, according to a nonhomogeneous Yule process with intensity function λx(t) = λ 0(t) · exp( x′β). One of the advantages of using a non-homogeneous Yule process for recurrent events is that it assumes that the recurrent rate is proportional to the number of events that occur up to time t. Maximum likelihood estimation is used to provide estimates of the parameters in the model, and a generalized scoring iterative procedure is applied in numerical computation. ^ Model comparisons between the proposed method and other existing recurrent models are addressed by simulation. One example concerning recurrent myocardial infarction events compared between two distinct populations, Mexican-American and Non-Hispanic Whites in the Corpus Christi Heart Project is examined. ^

Outcome-based adaptive randomization for binary data in clinical trials---Compare and contrast

Monte Carlo simulation has been conducted to investigate parameter estimation and hypothesis testing in some well known adaptive randomization procedures. The four urn models studied are Randomized Play-the-Winner (RPW), Randomized Pôlya Urn (RPU), Birth and Death Urn with Immigration (BDUI), and Drop-the-Loses Urn (DL). Two sequential estimation methods, the sequential maximum likelihood estimation (SMLE) and the doubly adaptive biased coin design (DABC), are simulated at three optimal allocation targets that minimize the expected number of failures under the assumption of constant variance of simple difference (RSIHR), relative risk (ORR), and odds ratio (OOR) respectively. Log likelihood ratio test and three Wald-type tests (simple difference, log of relative risk, log of odds ratio) are compared in different adaptive procedures. ^ Simulation results indicates that although RPW is slightly better in assigning more patients to the superior treatment, the DL method is considerably less variable and the test statistics have better normality. When compared with SMLE, DABC has slightly higher overall response rate with lower variance, but has larger bias and variance in parameter estimation. Additionally, the test statistics in SMLE have better normality and lower type I error rate, and the power of hypothesis testing is more comparable with the equal randomization. Usually, RSIHR has the highest power among the 3 optimal allocation ratios. However, the ORR allocation has better power and lower type I error rate when the log of relative risk is the test statistics. The number of expected failures in ORR is smaller than RSIHR. It is also shown that the simple difference of response rates has the worst normality among all 4 test statistics. The power of hypothesis test is always inflated when simple difference is used. On the other hand, the normality of the log likelihood ratio test statistics is robust against the change of adaptive randomization procedures. ^

A Bayesian approach to estimating the intraclass correlation coefficient

A Bayesian approach to estimating the intraclass correlation coefficient was used for this research project. The background of the intraclass correlation coefficient, a summary of its standard estimators, and a review of basic Bayesian terminology and methodology were presented. The conditional posterior density of the intraclass correlation coefficient was then derived and estimation procedures related to this derivation were shown in detail. Three examples of applications of the conditional posterior density to specific data sets were also included. Two sets of simulation experiments were performed to compare the mean and mode of the conditional posterior density of the intraclass correlation coefficient to more traditional estimators. Non-Bayesian methods of estimation used were: the methods of analysis of variance and maximum likelihood for balanced data; and the methods of MIVQUE (Minimum Variance Quadratic Unbiased Estimation) and maximum likelihood for unbalanced data. The overall conclusion of this research project was that Bayesian estimates of the intraclass correlation coefficient can be appropriate, useful and practical alternatives to traditional methods of estimation. ^

A Bayesian approach to estimating the regression coefficients of a multinomial logit model

A Bayesian approach to estimation of the regression coefficients of a multinominal logit model with ordinal scale response categories is presented. A Monte Carlo method is used to construct the posterior distribution of the link function. The link function is treated as an arbitrary scalar function. Then the Gauss-Markov theorem is used to determine a function of the link which produces a random vector of coefficients. The posterior distribution of the random vector of coefficients is used to estimate the regression coefficients. The method described is referred to as a Bayesian generalized least square (BGLS) analysis. Two cases involving multinominal logit models are described. Case I involves a cumulative logit model and Case II involves a proportional-odds model. All inferences about the coefficients for both cases are described in terms of the posterior distribution of the regression coefficients. The results from the BGLS method are compared to maximum likelihood estimates of the regression coefficients. The BGLS method avoids the nonlinear problems encountered when estimating the regression coefficients of a generalized linear model. The method is not complex or computationally intensive. The BGLS method offers several advantages over Bayesian approaches. ^

Logistic regression with Markov chains as covariates

The tobacco-specific nitrosamine 4-(methylnitrosamino)-1-(3-pyridyl)-1-butanone (NNK) is an obvious carcinogen for lung cancer. Since CBMN (Cytokinesis-blocked micronucleus) has been found to be extremely sensitive to NNK-induced genetic damage, it is a potential important factor to predict the lung cancer risk. However, the association between lung cancer and NNK-induced genetic damage measured by CBMN assay has not been rigorously examined. ^ This research develops a methodology to model the chromosomal changes under NNK-induced genetic damage in a logistic regression framework in order to predict the occurrence of lung cancer. Since these chromosomal changes were usually not observed very long due to laboratory cost and time, a resampling technique was applied to generate the Markov chain of the normal and the damaged cell for each individual. A joint likelihood between the resampled Markov chains and the logistic regression model including transition probabilities of this chain as covariates was established. The Maximum likelihood estimation was applied to carry on the statistical test for comparison. The ability of this approach to increase discriminating power to predict lung cancer was compared to a baseline "non-genetic" model. ^ Our method offered an option to understand the association between the dynamic cell information and lung cancer. Our study indicated the extent of DNA damage/non-damage using the CBMN assay provides critical information that impacts public health studies of lung cancer risk. This novel statistical method could simultaneously estimate the process of DNA damage/non-damage and its relationship with lung cancer for each individual.^

Foraminifer counts in core JM01-1199, and review of radiocarbon ages in the Norwegian-Barents Sea-Svalbard margin

We compare six high-resolution Holocene, sediment cores along a S-N transect on the Norwegian-Svalbard continental margin from ca 60°N to 77.4°N, northern North Atlantic. Planktonic foraminifera in the cores were investigated to show the changes in upper surface and subsurface water mass distribution and properties, including summer sea-surface temperatures (SST). The cores are located below the axis of the Norwegian Current and the West Spitsbergen Current, which today transport warm Atlantic Water to the Arctic. Sediment accumulation rates are generally high at all the core sites, allowing for a temporal resolution of 10-102 years. SST is reconstructed using different types of transfer functions, resulting in very similar SST trends, with deviations of no more than +- 1.0/1.5 °C. A transfer function based on the maximum likelihood statistical approach is found to be most relevant. The reconstruction documents an abrupt change in planktonic foraminiferal faunal composition and an associated warming at the Younger Dryas-Preboreal transition. The earliest part of the Holocene was characterized by large temperature variability, including the Preboreal Oscillations and the 8.2 k event. In general, the early Holocene was characterized by SSTs similar to those of today in the south and warmer than today in the north, and a smaller S-N temperature gradient (0.23 °C/°N) compared to the present temperature gradient (0.46 °C/°N). The southern proxy records (60-69°N) were more strongly influenced by slightly cooler subsurface water probably due to the seasonality of the orbital forcing and increased stratification due to freshening. The northern records (72-77.4°N) display a millennial-scale change associated with reduced insolation and a gradual weakening of the North Atlantic thermohaline circulation (THC). The observed northwards amplification of the early Holocene warming is comparable to the pattern of recent global warming and future climate modelling, which predicts greater warming at higher latitudes. The overall trend during mid and late Holocene was a cooling in the north, stable or weak warming in the south, and a maximum S-N SST gradient of ca 0.7 °C/°N at 5000 cal. years BP. Superimposed on this trend were several abrupt temperature shifts. Four of these shifts, dated to 9000-8000, 5500-3000 and 1000 and ~400 cal. years BP, appear to be global, as they correlate with periods of global climate change. In general, there is a good correlation between the northern North Atlantic temperature records and climate records from Norway and Svalbard.

Detection histories for eight species of Amazona parrots in Venezuela during the NeoMaps bird surveys in 2010

Documenting changes in distribution is necessary for understanding species' response to environmental changes, but data on species distributions are heterogeneous in accuracy and resolution. Combining different data sources and methodological approaches can fill gaps in knowledge about the dynamic processes driving changes in species-rich, but data-poor regions. We combined recent bird survey data from the Neotropical Biodiversity Mapping Initiative (NeoMaps) with historical distribution records to estimate potential changes in the distribution of eight species of Amazon parrots in Venezuela. Using environmental covariates and presence-only data from museum collections and the literature, we first used maximum likelihood to fit a species distribution model (SDM) estimating a historical maximum probability of occurrence for each species. We then used recent, NeoMaps survey data to build single-season occupancy models (OM) with the same environmental covariates, as well as with time- and effort-dependent detectability, resulting in estimates of the current probability of occurrence. We finally calculated the disagreement between predictions as a matrix of probability of change in the state of occurrence. Our results suggested negative changes for the only restricted, threatened species, Amazona barbadensis, which has been independently confirmed with field studies. Two of the three remaining widespread species that were detected, Amazona amazonica, Amazona ochrocephala, also had a high probability of negative changes in northern Venezuela, but results were not conclusive for Amazona farinosa. The four remaining species were undetected in recent field surveys; three of these were most probably absent from the survey locations (Amazona autumnalis, Amazona mercenaria and Amazona festiva), while a fourth (Amazona dufresniana) requires more intensive targeted sampling to estimate its current status. Our approach is unique in taking full advantage of available, but limited data, and in detecting a high probability of change even for rare and patchily-distributed species. However, it is presently limited to species meeting the strong assumptions required for maximum-likelihood estimation with presence-only data, including very high detectability and representative sampling of its historical distribution.