Designing market-based instruments for biodiversity conservation: learning with the Australian experience and evaluating Portugal's potential

Dissertação apresentada na Faculdade de Ciências e Tecnologia da Universidade Nova de Lisboa para a obtenção do grau de Mestre em Engenharia do Ambiente, perfil Gestão de Sistemas Ambientais

Long-term dependence in financial prices: evidence from the Belgian stock market returns

This article aims to contribute to the discussion of long-term dependence, focusing on the behavior of the main Belgian stock index. Non-parametric analyzes of the general characteristics of temporal frequency show that daily returns are non-ergodic and non-stationary. Therefore, we use the rescaled-range analysis (R/S) and the detrended fluctuation analysis (DFA), under the fractional Brownian motion approach, and we found slight evidence of long-term dependence. These results refute the random walk hypothesis with i.i.d. increments, which is the basis of the EMH in its weak form, and call into question some theoretical modeling of asset pricing. Other more localized complementary study, to identify the evolution of the degree of dependence over time windows, showed that the index has become less persistent from 2010. This may mean a maturing market by the extension of the effects of current financial crisis.

Simulação de um Pool Simétrico com validação técnica do despacho provisório e apresentação de medidas corretivas baseadas num despacho ótimo

Os mercados de energia elétrica são atualmente uma realidade um pouco por todo o mundo. Contudo, não é consensual o modelo regulatório a utilizar, o que origina a utilização de diferentes modelos nos diversos países que deram início ao processo de liberalização e de reestruturação do sector elétrico. A esses países, dado que a energia elétrica não é um bem armazenável, pelo menos em grandes quantidades, colocam-se questões importantes relacionadas com a gestão propriamente dita do seu sistema elétrico. Essas questões implicam a adoção de regras impostas pelo regulador que permitam ultrapassar essas questões. Este trabalho apresenta um estudo feito aos mercados de energia elétrica existentes um pouco por todo o mundo e que o autor considerou serem os mais importantes. Foi também feito um estudo de ferramentas de otimização essencialmente baseado em meta-heurísticas aplicadas a problemas relacionados com a operação dos mercados e com os sistemas elétricos de energia, como é o exemplo da resolução do problema do Despacho Económico. Foi desenvolvida uma aplicação que simula o funcionamento de um mercado que atua com o modelo Pool Simétrico, em que são transmitidas as ofertas de venda e compra de energia elétrica por parte dos produtores, por um lado, e dos comercializadores, consumidores elegíveis ou intermediários financeiros, por outro, analisando a viabilidade técnica do Despacho Provisório. A análise da viabilidade técnica do Despacho Provisório é verificada através do modelo DC de trânsito de potências. No caso da inviabilidade do Despacho Provisório, por violação de restrições afetas ao problema, são determinadas medidas corretivas a esse despacho, com base nas ofertas realizadas e recorrendo a um Despacho Ótimo. Para a determinação do Despacho Ótimo recorreu-se à meta-heurística Algoritmos Genéticos. A aplicação foi desenvolvida no software MATLAB utilizando a ferramenta Graphical User Interfaces. A rede de teste utilizada foi a rede de 14 barramentos do Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers (IEEE). A aplicação mostra-se competente no que concerne à simulação de um mercado com tipo de funcionamento Pool Simétrico onde são efetuadas ofertas simples e onde as transações ocorrem no mercado diário, porém, não reflete o problema real relacionado a este tipo de mercados. Trata-se, portanto, de um simulador básico de um mercado de energia cujo modelo de funcionamento se baseia no tipo Pool Simétrico.

Simulation and dynamics of freeway traffic

This paper presents the new package entitled Simulator of Intelligent Transportation Systems (SITS) and a computational oriented analysis of traffic dynamics. The SITS adopts a microscopic simulation approach to reproduce real traffic conditions considering different types of vehicles, drivers and roads. A set of experiments with the SITS reveal the dynamic phenomena exhibited by this kind of system. For this purpose a modelling formalism is developed that embeds the statistics and the Laplace transform. The results make possible the adoption of classical system theory tools and point out that it is possible to study traffic systems taking advantage of the knowledge gathered with automatic control algorithms. A complementary perspective for the analysis of the traffic flow is also quantified through the entropy measure.

Development of procedures for the simulation of atmospheric flows over complex terrain, using OpenFOAM

The main purpose of this work was the development of procedures for the simulation of atmospheric ows over complex terrain, using OpenFOAM. For this aim, tools and procedures were developed apart from this code for the preprocessing and data extraction, which were thereafter applied in the simulation of a real case. For the generation of the computational domain, a systematic method able to translate the terrain elevation model to a native OpenFOAM format (blockMeshDict) was developed. The outcome was a structured mesh, in which the user has the ability to de ne the number of control volumes and its dimensions. With this procedure, the di culties of case set up and the high computation computational e ort reported in literature associated to the use of snappyHexMesh, the OpenFOAM resource explored until then for the accomplishment of this task, were considered to be overwhelmed. Developed procedures for the generation of boundary conditions allowed for the automatic creation of idealized inlet vertical pro les, de nition of wall functions boundary conditions and the calculation of internal eld rst guesses for the iterative solution process, having as input experimental data supplied by the user. The applicability of the generated boundary conditions was limited to the simulation of turbulent, steady-state, incompressible and neutrally strati ed atmospheric ows, always recurring to RaNS (Reynolds-averaged Navier-Stokes) models. For the modelling of terrain roughness, the developed procedure allowed to the user the de nition of idealized conditions, like an uniform aerodynamic roughness length or making its value variable as a function of topography characteristic values, or the using of real site data, and it was complemented by the development of techniques for the visual inspection of generated roughness maps. The absence and the non inclusion of a forest canopy model limited the applicability of this procedure to low aerodynamic roughness lengths. The developed tools and procedures were then applied in the simulation of a neutrally strati ed atmospheric ow over the Askervein hill. In the performed simulations was evaluated the solution sensibility to di erent convection schemes, mesh dimensions, ground roughness and formulations of the k - ε and k - ω models. When compared to experimental data, calculated values showed a good agreement of speed-up in hill top and lee side, with a relative error of less than 10% at a height of 10 m above ground level. Turbulent kinetic energy was considered to be well simulated in the hill windward and hill top, and grossly predicted in the lee side, where a zone of ow separation was also identi ed. Despite the need of more work to evaluate the importance of the downstream recirculation zone in the quality of gathered results, the agreement between the calculated and experimental values and the OpenFOAM sensibility to the tested parameters were considered to be generally in line with the simulations presented in the reviewed bibliographic sources.

Plataforma de simulação em Repast Simphony para análise da divulgação de novas ideias em mercado

Modelação e simulação baseadas em agentes estão a ganhar cada vez mais importância e adeptos devido à sua flexibilidade e potencialidade em reproduzir comportamentos e estudar um sistema na perspetiva global ou das interações individuais. Neste trabalho, criou-se um sistema baseado em agentes e desenvolvido em Repast Simphony com o objectivo de analisar a difusão de um novo produto ou serviço através de uma rede de potenciais clientes, tentando compreender, assim, como ocorre e quanto tempo demora esta passagem de informação (inovação) com diversas topologias de rede, no contato direto entre pessoas. A simulação baseia-se no conceito da existencia de iniciadores, que são os primeiros consumidores a adotar um produto quando este chega ao mercado e os seguidores, que são os potenciais consumidores que, apesar de terem alguma predisposição para adotar um novo produto, normalmente só o fazem depois de terem sido sujeitos a algum tipo de influência. Com a aplicação criada, simularam-se diversas situações com a finalidade de obter e observar os resultados gerados a partir de definições iniciais diferentes. Com os resultados gerados pelas simulações foram criados gráficos representativos dos diversos cenários. A finalidade prática desta aplicação, poderá ser o seu uso em sala de aula para simulação de casos de estudo e utilização, em casos reais, como ferramenta de apoio à tomada de decisão, das empresas.

Long-term memory in financial prices: evidence from the Dutch stock market returns

Prepared for presentation at the Portuguese Finance Network International Conference 2014, Vilamoura, Portugal, June 18-20

Mathematical modeling and simulation of heat flow through pultrusion die assembly system for thermoset composites

Pultrusion is an industrial process used to produce glass fibers reinforced polymers profiles. These materials are worldwide used when performing characteristics, such as great electrical and magnetic insulation, high strength to weight ratio, corrosion and weather resistance, long service life and minimal maintenance are required. In this study, we present the results of the modelling and simulation of heat flow through a pultrusion die by means of Finite Element Analysis (FEA). The numerical simulation was calibrated based on temperature profiles computed from thermographic measurements carried out during pultrusion manufacturing process. Obtained results have shown a maximum deviation of 7%, which is considered to be acceptable for this type of analysis, and is below to the 10% value, previously specified as maximum deviation. © 2011, Advanced Engineering Solutions.

Teaching accounting and management through business simulation:

Everyday accounting and management teachers face the challenge of creating learning environments that motivate students. This chapter describes the Business Simulation (BS) experience that has taken place at the Polytechnic Institute of Porto, Institute of Accounting and Administration (IPP/ISCAP). The chapter presents students’ perceptions about the course and the teaching/learning approach. The results show that pedagogical methods used (competency-oriented), generic competencies (cooperation and group work), and interpersonal skills (organisational and communication skills) are relevant for future accounting professionals. In addition, positive remarks and possible constraints based on observation, staff meetings, and past research are reported. The chapter concludes with some recommendations from the project implementation.

Project, modelling and simulation of air stripping columns for the treatment of groundwater contaminated with volatile organic compounds

Volatile organic compounds are a common source of groundwater contamination that can be easily removed by air stripping in columns with random packing and using a counter-current flow between the phases. This work proposes a new methodology for the column design for any particular type of packing and contaminant avoiding the necessity of a pre-defined diameter used in the classical approach. It also renders unnecessary the employment of the graphical Eckert generalized correlation for pressure drop estimates. The hydraulic features are previously chosen as a project criterion and only afterwards the mass transfer phenomena are incorporated, in opposition to conventional approach. The design procedure was translated into a convenient algorithm using C++ as programming language. A column was built in order to test the models used either in the design or in the simulation of the column performance. The experiments were fulfilled using a solution of chloroform in distilled water. Another model was built to simulate the operational performance of the column, both in steady state and in transient conditions. It consists in a system of two partial non linear differential equations (distributed parameters). Nevertheless, when flows are steady, the system became linear, although there is not an evident solution in analytical terms. In steady state the resulting system of ODE can be solved, allowing for the calculation of the concentration profile in both phases inside the column. In transient state the system of PDE was numerically solved by finite differences, after a previous linearization.

Self-scheduling and bidding strategies of thermal units with stochastic emission constraints

This paper is on the self-scheduling problem for a thermal power producer taking part in a pool-based electricity market as a price-taker, having bilateral contracts and emission-constrained. An approach based on stochastic mixed-integer linear programming approach is proposed for solving the self-scheduling problem. Uncertainty regarding electricity price is considered through a set of scenarios computed by simulation and scenario-reduction. Thermal units are modelled by variable costs, start-up costs and technical operating constraints, such as: forbidden operating zones, ramp up/down limits and minimum up/down time limits. A requirement on emission allowances to mitigate carbon footprint is modelled by a stochastic constraint. Supply functions for different emission allowance levels are accessed in order to establish the optimal bidding strategy. A case study is presented to illustrate the usefulness and the proficiency of the proposed approach in supporting biding strategies. (C) 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Simulation of rectifier voltage malfunction on OWECS, four-level converter, HVDC light link: Smart grid context tool

This paper presents a model for the simulation of an offshore wind system having a rectifier input voltage malfunction at one phase. The offshore wind system model comprises a variable-speed wind turbine supported on a floating platform, equipped with a permanent magnet synchronous generator using full-power four-level neutral point clamped converter. The link from the offshore floating platform to the onshore electrical grid is done through a light high voltage direct current submarine cable. The drive train is modeled by a three-mass model. Considerations about the smart grid context are offered for the use of the model in such a context. The rectifier voltage malfunction domino effect is presented as a case study to show capabilities of the model. (C) 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Brownian bridge and other path-dependent Gaussian processes vectorial simulation

The iterative simulation of the Brownian bridge is well known. In this article, we present a vectorial simulation alternative based on Gaussian processes for machine learning regression that is suitable for interpreted programming languages implementations. We extend the vectorial simulation of path-dependent trajectories to other Gaussian processes, namely, sequences of Brownian bridges, geometric Brownian motion, fractional Brownian motion, and Ornstein-Ulenbeck mean reversion process.

Numerical simulation of plasmonic effects in amorphous silicon induced by embedded aluminium nanoparticles

This work reports a theoretical study aimed to identify the plasmonic resonance condition for a system formed by metallic nanoparticles embedded in an a-Si: H matrix. The study is based on a Tauc-Lorentz model for the electrical permittivity of a-Si: H and a Drude model for the metallic nanoparticles. It is calculated the The polarizability of an sphere and ellipsoidal shaped metal nanoparticles with radius of 20 nm. We also performed FDTD simulations of light propagation inside this structure reporting a comparison among the effects caused by a single nanoparticles of Aluminium, Silver and, as a comparison, an ideally perfectly conductor. The simulation results shows that is possible to obtain a plasmonic resonance in the red part of the spectrum (600-700 nm) when 20-30 nm radius Aluminium ellipsoids are embedded into a-Si: H.