Baysian Model Averaging, Learning and Model Selection

Agents have two forecasting models, one consistent with the unique rational expectations equilibrium, another that assumes a time-varying parameter structure. When agents use Bayesian updating to choose between models in a self-referential system, we find that learning dynamics lead to selection of one of the two models. However, there are parameter regions for which the non-rational forecasting model is selected in the long-run. A key structural parameter governing outcomes measures the degree of expectations feedback in Muth's model of price determination.

Anticipation, Learning and Welfare: the Case of Distortionary Taxation

We study the impact of anticipated fiscal policy changes in a Ramsey economy where agents form long-horizon expectations using adaptive learning. We extend the existing framework by introducing distortionary taxes as well as elastic labour supply, which makes agents. decisions non-predetermined but more realistic. We detect that the dynamic responses to anticipated tax changes under learning have oscillatory behaviour that can be interpreted as self-fulfilling waves of optimism and pessimism emerging from systematic forecast errors. Moreover, we demonstrate that these waves can have important implications for the welfare consequences of .scal reforms. (JEL: E32, E62, D84)

The role of Malt1 proteolytic activity in T cell activation and lymphoma development

Abstract Long term contact with pathogens induces an adaptive immune response, which is mainly mediated by T and B cells. Antigen-induced activation of T and B cells is an important event, since it facilitates the transition of harmless, low proliferative lymphocytes into powerful and fast expanding cells, which can, if deregulated, be extremely harmful and dangerous for the human body. One of the most important events during lymphocyte activation is the induction of NF-xB activity, a transcription factor that controls not only cytokine secretion, but also lymphocyte proliferation and survival. Recent discoveries identified the CBM complex as the central regulator of NF-xB activity in lymphocytes. The CBM complex consists of the three proteins Carma1, Bcl10 and Malt1, in which Carma1 serves as recruitment platform of the complex and Bcl10 as an adaptor to recruit Malt1 to this platform. But exactly how Malt1 activates NF-x6 is still poorly understood. We discovered that Malt1 is a protease, which cleaves its interaction partner Bcl10 upon T and B cell stimulation. We mapped the Bcl10 cleavage site by single point mutations as well as by a proteomics approach, and used this knowledge to design a fluorogenic Malt1 reporter peptide. With this tool were we able to the first time demonstrate proteolytic activity of Malt1 in vitro, using recombinant Malt1, and in stimulated T cells. Based on similarities to a metacaspase, we designed a Malt1inhibitor, which allowed unto investigate the role of Malt1 activity in T cells. Malt1-inhibited T cells showed a clear defect in NF-xB activity, resulting in impaired IL-2 cytokine secretion levels. We also found a new unexpected role for Bcl10; the blockade of Bcl10 cleavage resulted in a strongly impaired capability of stimulated T cells to adhere to the extracellular matrix protein fibronectin. Because of the central position of the C8M complex, it is not surprising that different lymphomas show abnormal expressions of Carma1, Bcl10 and Malt1. We investigated the role of Malt1 proteolytic activity in the most aggressive subtype of diffuse large B cell lymphomas called ABC, which was described to depend on the expression of Carmal, and frequently carries oncogenic Carmal mutations. We found constitutive high Malt1 activity in all tested ABC cell lines visualized by detection of cleavage products of Malt1 substrates. With the use of the Malt1-inhibitor, we could demonstrate that Malt-inhibition in those cells had two effects. First, the tumor cell proliferation was decreased, most likely because of lower autocrine stimulation by cytokines. Second, we could sensitize the ABC cells towards cell death, which is most likely caused by reduced expression of prosurvival NF-xB target gens. Taken together, we identified Malt1 as a protease in T and B cells, demonstrated its importance for NF-xB signaling and its deregulation in a subtype of diffuse large B cell lymphoma. This could allow the development of a new generation of immunomodulatory and anti-cancer drugs. Résumé Un contact prolongé avec des pathogènes provoque une réponse immunitaire adaptative qui dépend principalement des cellules T et 8. L'activation des lymphocytes T et B, suite à la reconnaissance d'un antigène, est un événement important puisqu'il facilite la transition pour ces cellules d'un état de prolifération limitée et inoffensive à une prolifération soutenue et rapide. Lorsque ce mécanisme est déréglé ìl peut devenir extrêmement nuisible et dangereux pour le corps humain. Un des événement les plus importants lors de l'activation des lymphocytes est l'induction du facteur de transcription NFxB, qui organise la sécrétion de cytokines ainsi que la prolifération et la survie des lymphocytes. Le complexe CBM, composé des trois protéines Carmai, Bc110 et Malt1, a été récemment identifié comme un régulateur central de l'activité de NF-x8 dans les lymphocytes. Carma1 sert de plateforme de recrutement pour ce complexe alors que Bc110 permet d'amener Malt1 dans cette plateforme. Cependant, le rôle exact de Malt1 dans l'activation de NF-tcB reste encore mal compris. Nous avons découvert que Malt1 est une protéase qui clive son partenaire d'interaction BcI10 après stimulation des cellules T et B. Nous avons identifié le site de clivage de BcI10 par une série de mutations ponctuelles ainsi que par une approche protéomique, ce qui nous a permis de fabriquer un peptide reporteur fluorogénique pour mesurer l'activité de Malt1. Grâce à cet outil, nous avons démontré pour la première fois l'activité protéolytique de Malt1 in vitro à l'aide de protéines Malt1 recombinantes ainsi que dans des cellules T stimulées. La ressemblance de Malt1 avec une métacaspase nous a permis de synthétiser un inhibiteur de Malt1 et d'étudier ainsi le rôle de l'activité de Malt1 dans les cellules T. L'inhibition de Malt1 dans les cellules T a révélé un net défaut de l'activité de NF-x8, ayant pour effet une sécrétion réduite de la cytokine IL-2. Nous avons également découvert un rôle inattendu pour Bcl10: en effet, bloquer le clivage de Bcl10 diminue fortement la capacité d'adhésion des cellules T stimulées à la protéine fïbronectine, un composant de la matrice extracellulaire. En raison de la position centrale du complexe CBM, il n'est pas étonnant que le niveau d'expression de Carmai, Bcl10 et Malt1 soit anormal dans plusieurs types de lymphomes. Nous avons examiné le rôle de l'activité protéolytique de Malt1 dans le sous-type le plus agressif des lymphomes B diffus à grandes cellules, appelé sous-type ABC. Ce sous-type de lymphomes dépend de l'expression de Carmai et présente souvent des mutations oncogéniques de Carma1. Nous avons démontré que l'activité de Malt1 était constitutivement élevée dans toutes les lignées cellulaires de type ABC testées, en mettant en évidence la présence de produits de clivage de différents substrats de Malt1. Enfin, l'utilisation de l'inhibiteur de Malt1 nous a permis de démontrer que l'inhibition de Malt1 avait deux effets. Premièrement, une diminution de la prolifération des cellules tumorales, probablement dûe à leur stimulation autocrine par des cytokines fortement réduite. Deuxièmement, une sensibilisation des cellules de type ABC à ia mort cellulaire, vraisemblablement causée par l'expression diminuée de gènes de survie dépendants de NF-tcB. En résumé, nous avons identifié Malt1 comme une protéase dans les cellules T et B, nous avons mis en évidence son importance pour l'activation de NF-xB ainsi que les conséquences du dérèglement de l'activité de Malt1 dans un sous-type de lymphome B diffus à larges cellules. Notre étude ouvre ainsi la voie au développement d'une nouvelle génération de médicaments immunomodulateurs et anti-cancéreux.

Research and teaching: a holy or an unholy alliance?

Much of the self-image of the Western university hangs on the idea that research and teaching are intimately connected. The central axiom here is that research and teaching are mutually supportive of each other. An institution lacking such a set of relationships between research and teaching falls short of what it means to be a university. This set of beliefs raises certain questions: Is it the case that the presence of such a mutually supportive set of relationships between research and teaching is a necessary condition of the fulfilment of the idea of the university? (A conceptual question). And is it true that, in practice today, such a mutually supportive set of relationships between research and teaching characterises universities? (An empirical question). In my talk, I want to explore these matters in a critical vein. I shall suggest that: a) In practice today, such a mutually supportive set of relationships between research and teaching is in jeopardy. Far from supporting each other, very often research and teaching contend against each other. Research and teaching are becoming two separate ideologies, with their own interest structures. b) Historically, the supposed tight link between research and teaching is both of recent origin and far from universally achieved in universities. Institutional separateness between research and teaching is and has been evident, both across institutions and even across departments in the same institution. c) Conceptually, research and teaching are different activities: each is complex and neither is reducible to the other. In theory, therefore, research and teaching may be said to constitute a holy alliance but in practice, we see more of an unholy alliance. If, then, in an ideal world, a positive relationship between research and teaching is still a worthwhile goal, how might it be construed and worked for? Seeing research and teaching as two discrete and unified sets of activity is now inadequate. Much better is a construal of research and teaching as themselves complexes, as intermingling pools of activity helping to form the liquid university that is emerging today. On this view, research and teaching are fluid spaces, ever on the move, taking up new shapes, and themselves dividing and reforming, as the university reworks its own destiny in modern society. On such a perspective, working out a productive relationship between research and teaching is a complex project. This is an alliance that is neither holy nor unholy. It is an uneasy alliance, with temporary accommodations and continuous new possibilities.

Advanced mapping of environmental data: Geostatistics, Machine Learning and Bayesian Maximum Entropy

This book combines geostatistics and global mapping systems to present an up-to-the-minute study of environmental data. Featuring numerous case studies, the reference covers model dependent (geostatistics) and data driven (machine learning algorithms) analysis techniques such as risk mapping, conditional stochastic simulations, descriptions of spatial uncertainty and variability, artificial neural networks (ANN) for spatial data, Bayesian maximum entropy (BME), and more.

Interactions between learning and immunity in Drosophila melanogaster

Learning and immunity are two adaptive traits with roles in central aspects of an organism's life: learning allows adjusting behaviours in changing environments, while immunity protects the body integrity against parasites and pathogens. While we know a lot about how these two traits interact in vertebrates, the interactions between learning and immunity remain poorly explored in insects. During my PhD, I studied three possible ways in which these two traits interact in the model system Drosophila melanogaster, a model organism in the study of learning and in the study of immunity. Learning can affect the behavioural defences against parasites and pathogens through the acquisition of new aversions for contaminated food for instance. This type of learning relies on the ability to associate a food-related cue with the visceral sickness following ingestion of contaminated food. Despite its potential implication in infection prevention, the existence of pathogen avoidance learning has been rarely explored in invertebrates. In a first part of my PhD, I tested whether D. melanogaster, which feed on food enriched in microorganisms, innately avoid the orally-acquired 'novel' virulent pathogen Pseudomonas entomophila, and whether it can learn to avoid it. Although flies did not innately avoid this pathogen, they decreased their preference for contaminated food over time, suggesting the existence of a form of learning based likely on infection-induced sickness. I further found that flies may be able to learn to avoid an odorant which was previously associated with the pathogen, but this requires confirmation with additional data. If this is confirmed, this would be the first time, to my knowledge, that pathogen avoidance learning is reported in an insect. The detrimental effect of infection on cognition and more specifically on learning ability is well documented in vertebrates and in social insects. While the underlying mechanisms are described in detail in vertebrates, experimental investigations are lacking in invertebrates. In a second part of my PhD, I tested the effect of an oral infection with natural pathogens on associative learning of D. melanogaster. By contrast with previous studies in insects, I found that flies orally infected with the virulent P. entomophila learned better the association of an odorant with mechanical shock than uninfected flies. The effect seems to be specific to a gut infection, and so far I have not been able to draw conclusions on the respective contributions of the pathogen's virulence and of the flies' immune activity in this effect. Interestingly, infected flies may display an increased sensitivity to physical pain. If the learning improvement observed in infected flies was due partially to the activity of the immune system, my results would suggest the existence of physiological connections between the immune system and the nervous system. The basis of these connections would then need to be addressed. Learning and immunity are linked at the physiological level in social insects. Physiological links between traits often result from the expression of genetic links between these traits. However, in social insects, there is no evidence that learning and immunity may be involved in an evolutionary trade-off. I previously reported a positive effect of infection on learning in D. melanogaster. This might suggest that a positive genetic link could exist between learning and immunity. We tested this hypothesis with two approaches: the diallel cross design with inbred lines, and the isofemale lines design. The two approaches provided consistent results: we found no additive genetic correlation between learning and resistance to infection with the diallel cross, and no genetic correlation in flies which are not yet adapted to laboratory conditions in isofemale lines. Consistently with the literature, the two studies suggested that the positive effect of infection on learning I observed might not be reflected by a positive evolutionary link between learning and immunity. Nevertheless, the existence of complex genetic relationships between the two traits cannot be excluded. - L'apprentissage et l'immunité sont deux caractères à valeur adaptative impliqués dans des aspects centraux de la vie d'un organisme : l'apprentissage permet d'ajuster les comportements pour faire face aux changements de l'environnement, tandis que l'immunité protège l'intégrité corporelle contre les attaques des parasites et des pathogènes. Alors que les interactions entre l'apprentissage et l'immunité sont bien documentées chez les vertébrés, ces interactions ont été très peu étudiées chez les insectes. Pendant ma thèse, je me suis intéressée à trois aspects des interactions possibles entre l'apprentissage et l'immunité chez la mouche du vinaigre Drosophila melanogaster, qui est un organisme modèle dans l'étude à la fois de l'apprentissage et de l'immunité. L'apprentissage peut affecter les défenses comportementales contre les parasites et les pathogènes par l'acquisition de nouvelles aversions pour la nourriture contaminée par exemple. Ce type d'apprentissage repose sur la capacité à associer une caractéristique de la nourriture avec la maladie qui suit l'ingestion de cette nourriture. Malgré les implications potentielles pour la prévention des infections, l'évitement appris des pathogènes a été rarement étudié chez les invertébrés. Dans une première partie de ma thèse, j'ai testé si les mouches, qui se nourrissent sur des milieux enrichis en micro-organismes, évitent de façon innée un 'nouveau' pathogène virulent Pseudomonas entomophila, et si elles ont la capacité d'apprendre à l'éviter. Bien que les mouches ne montrent pas d'évitement inné pour ce pathogène, elles diminuent leur préférence pour de la nourriture contaminée dans le temps, suggérant l'existence d'une forme d'apprentissage basée vraisemblablement sur la maladie générée par l'infection. J'ai ensuite observé que les mouches semblent être capables d'apprendre à éviter une odeur qui était au préalable associée avec ce pathogène, mais cela reste à confirmer par la collecte de données supplémentaires. Si cette observation est confirmée, cela sera la première fois, à ma connaissance, que l'évitement appris des pathogènes est décrit chez un insecte. L'effet détrimental des infections sur la cognition et plus particulièrement sur les capacités d'apprentissage est bien documenté chez les vertébrés et les insectes sociaux. Alors que les mécanismes sous-jacents sont détaillés chez les vertébrés, des études expérimentales font défaut chez les insectes. Dans une seconde partie de ma thèse, j'ai mesuré les effets d'une infection orale par des pathogènes naturels sur les capacités d'apprentissage associatif de la drosophile. Contrairement aux études précédentes chez les insectes, j'ai trouvé que les mouches infectées par le pathogène virulent P. entomophila apprennent mieux à associer une odeur avec des chocs mécaniques que des mouches non infectées. Cet effet semble spécifique à l'infection orale, et jusqu'à présent je n'ai pas pu conclure sur les contributions respectives de la virulence du pathogène et de l'activité immunitaire des mouches dans cet effet. De façon intéressante, les mouches infectées pourraient montrer une plus grande réactivité à la douleur physique. Si l'amélioration de l'apprentissage observée chez les mouches infectées était due en partie à l'activité du système immunitaire, mes résultats suggéreraient l'existence de connections physiologiques entre le système immunitaire et le système nerveux. Les mécanismes de ces connections seraient à explorer. L'apprentissage et l'immunité sont liés sur un plan physiologique chez les insectes sociaux. Les liens physiologiques entre les caractères résultent souvent de l'expression de liens entre ces caractères au niveau génétique. Cependant, chez les insectes sociaux, il n'y a pas de preuve que l'apprentissage et l'immunité soient liés par un compromis évolutif. J'ai précédemment rapporté un effet positif de l'infection sur l'apprentissage chez la drosophile. Cela pourrait suggérer qu'une relation génétique positive existerait entre l'apprentissage et l'immunité. Nous avons testé cette hypothèse par deux approches : le croisement diallèle avec des lignées consanguines, et les lignées isofemelles. Les deux approches ont fournies des résultats similaires : nous n'avons pas détecté de corrélation génétique additive entre l'apprentissage et la résistance à l'infection avec le croisement diallèle, et pas de corrélation génétique chez des mouches non adaptées aux conditions de laboratoire avec les lignées isofemelles. En ligne avec la littérature, ces deux études suggèrent que l'effet positif de l'infection sur l'apprentissage que j'ai précédemment observé ne refléterait pas un lien évolutif positif entre l'apprentissage et l'immunité. Néanmoins, l'existence de relations génétiques complexes n'est pas exclue.

IPH response to DSD Urban Regeneration and Community Development Policy Framework Consultation

The Urban Regeneration and Community Development Policy Framework for Northern Ireland sets out for DSD and its partners, clear priorities for urban regeneration and community development programmes, both before and after the operational responsibility for these is transferred to councils under the reform of local government. Four policy objectives have been developed, which will focus on the underlying structural problems in urban areas and also help strengthen community development throughout Northern Ireland. The policy objectives are as follows: Policy Objective 1 – To tackle area-based deprivation: Policy Objective 2 – To strengthen the competitiveness of our towns and cities: Policy Objective 3 – To improve linkages between areas of need and areas of opportunity: and Policy Objective 4 –To develop more cohesive and engaged communities. Key points from IPH response Urban regeneration and community development provide a basis for addressing the social determinants of health and reducing inequalities in health. This policy framework presents an opportunity for coherence and complementarity with ‘Fit and Well - Changing Lives’ as part of government’s overall approach to tackling health inequalities. It is now well established that a focus on early years’ interventions and family support services yields significant returns, so prioritising action in these areas is essential. Defined action plans on child poverty are essential if this policy framework is to make a real and lasting difference in deprived urban areas. Development of the environmental infrastructure to improve health in deprived areas should be supported by well-planned monitoring and evaluation. Linking the policy framework to economic development and local community plans will enhance effectiveness in the areas of education, job creation, commercial investment and access to services, which in turn are critical for the economic growth and stability of urban communities. Community profile data and health intelligence (as available through IPH Health Well) could usefully inform central and local government in terms of resource allocation and targeted service delivery.

Interventions with Parents in the Early Years for improved health outcomes: A focus on behaviour and cognitive development/school readiness

Equity Action is a Joint Action between the EU and Member States aiming to reduce health inequalities by helping to improve policies at national and regional level and harness the contribution of stakeholders. Dr Cotter of IPH completed this literature review as part of Equity Action Work Package 6

Ultrastructure of spermatogenesis and sperm development in Saccocoelioides godoyi Kohn & Froes, 1986 (Digenea, Haploporidae)

Ultrastructural observations of spermatogenesis and sperm development of Saccocoelioides godoyi, an intestinal parasite of Leporinus friderici (Bloch, 1794) are described. The irregular-shaped spermatogonia form a peripheral layer, and show a prominent nucleus. Spermatocytes are larger than spermatogonia, and in the early stage present synaptonemal complex. Spermatids show nuclei smaller than the spermatocytes. Spermiogenesis is characterized by outgrowth of the zone of differentiation, presenting basal bodies, separated by an intercentriolar body. At the end of this process, the spermatozoa are released into the residual cytoplasmic mass. The spermatozoa of S. godoyi are elongate, similar to the pattern described for other Digenea, showing nuclei, mitochondria and two axonemes with the 9+1 configuration. The peripheral cortical microtubules on the dorsal and ventral faces are laterally interrupted.

Monaghan General Hospital - Proposals for further and future development

Monaghan General Hospital – Proposals for further and future development The Independent Review Panel recommended a review of the existing protocol for emergency obstetric cases presenting at Hospitals such as Monaghan which have no on-site obstetric expertise, and the implementation of a revised protocol. They also recommended that each maternity incident should be reviewed by a multidisciplinary team from the Cavan Monaghan Group. Click here to download PDF 49kb Appendix PDF 2.5mb

The Role and Future Development of Day Services in Ireland

The Role and Future Development of Day Services in Ireland Government and health board policy documents have acknowledged the valuable role that day services play in providing services such as a midday meal, bath or shower, therapeutic and social services, and in promoting social contact and preventing loneliness, relieving caring relatives and providing social stimulation in a safe environment for older people with mild dementia (The Years Ahead, 1988). Click here to download PDF 461kb

The Role and Future Development of Day Services in Ireland

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Monaghan General Hospital - Proposals for further and future development

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The Role and Future Development of Day Services for Older People in Ireland: Conference Proceedings

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