Shifts in resident bird communities associated with cloud forest patch size in Central Veracruz, Mexico

Avian communities in cloud forests have high levels of endemism and are at major risk given the accelerated rate of habitat fragmentation. Nevertheless, the response of these communities to changes in fragment size remains poorly understood. We evaluated species richness, bird community density, community composition, and dominance as indicators of the response to fragment size in a fragmented cloud forest landscape in central Veracruz, Mexico. Medium-sized fragments had statistically higher than expected species richness and more even communities, which may be a reflection of the intermediate disturbance hypothesis, in which medium-sized fragments are exploited by both forest and disturbance-associated species. Bird density also reached higher values in medium-sized fragments, which may indicate a carrying capacity in this habitat. However, large cloud forest fragments had a distinct taxonomic and functional composition, attributable to an increased number of understory insectivore species and canopy frugivores. By comparison, omnivorous species associated with human-altered habitats were more abundant in smaller fragments. Hence, although medium-sized cloud forest fragments had higher species richness and high bird density, large forest tracts maintained a distinct avian community composition, particularly of insectivorous and frugivorous species. Furthermore, the underlying response to fragmentation can only be properly addressed when contrasting several community attributes, such as richness, density, composition, and species dominance. Therefore, cloud forest conservation should aim to preserve the remaining large forest fragments to maintain comprehensive avian communities and avoid local extinctions.

Testing the influence of small crystals on ice size spectra using Doppler lidar observations

Analysis of the vertical velocity of ice crystals observed with a 1.5micron Doppler lidar from a continuous sample of stratiform ice clouds over 17 months show that the distribution of Doppler velocity varies strongly with temperature, with mean velocities of 0.2m/s at -40C, increasing to 0.6m/s at -10C due to particle growth and broadening of the size spectrum. We examine the likely influence of crystals smaller than 60microns by forward modelling their effect on the area-weighted fall speed, and comparing the results to the lidar observations. The comparison strongly suggests that the concentration of small crystals in most clouds is much lower than measured in-situ by some cloud droplet probes. We argue that the discrepancy is likely due to shattering of large crystals on the probe inlet, and that numerous small particles should not be included in numerical weather and climate model parameterizations.

Very large inverse problems in atmosphere and ocean modelling

For the very large nonlinear dynamical systems that arise in a wide range of physical, biological and environmental problems, the data needed to initialize a numerical forecasting model are seldom available. To generate accurate estimates of the expected states of the system, both current and future, the technique of ‘data assimilation’ is used to combine the numerical model predictions with observations of the system measured over time. Assimilation of data is an inverse problem that for very large-scale systems is generally ill-posed. In four-dimensional variational assimilation schemes, the dynamical model equations provide constraints that act to spread information into data sparse regions, enabling the state of the system to be reconstructed accurately. The mechanism for this is not well understood. Singular value decomposition techniques are applied here to the observability matrix of the system in order to analyse the critical features in this process. Simplified models are used to demonstrate how information is propagated from observed regions into unobserved areas. The impact of the size of the observational noise and the temporal position of the observations is examined. The best signal-to-noise ratio needed to extract the most information from the observations is estimated using Tikhonov regularization theory. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Retrieval of effective ice crystal size in the infrared: sensitivity study and global measurements from TIROS-N Operational Vertical Sounder

The difference between cirrus emissivities at 8 and 11 μm is sensitive to the mean effective ice crystal size of the cirrus cloud, De. By using single scattering properties of ice crystals shaped as planar polycrystals, diameters of up to about 70 μm can be retrieved, instead of up to 45 μm assuming spheres or hexagonal columns. The method described in this article is used for a global determination of mean effective ice crystal sizes of cirrus clouds from TOVS satellite observations. A sensitivity study of the De retrieval to uncertainties in hypotheses on ice crystal shape, size distributions, and temperature profiles, as well as in vertical and horizontal cloud heterogeneities shows that uncertainties can be as large as 30%. However, the TOVS data set is one of few data sets which provides global and long-term coverage. Having analyzed the years 1987–1991, it was found that measured effective ice crystal diameters De are stable from year to year. For 1990 a global median De of 53.5 μm was determined. Averages distinguishing ocean/land, season, and latitude lie between 23 μm in winter over Northern Hemisphere midlatitude land and 64 μm in the tropics. In general, larger Des are found in regions with higher atmospheric water vapor and for cirrus with a smaller effective emissivity.

Some general comparative points on Chao’s and Zelterman’s estimators of population size

Two simple and frequently used capture–recapture estimates of the population size are compared: Chao's lower-bound estimate and Zelterman's estimate allowing for contaminated distributions. In the Poisson case it is shown that if there are only counts of ones and twos, the estimator of Zelterman is always bounded above by Chao's estimator. If counts larger than two exist, the estimator of Zelterman is becoming larger than that of Chao's, if only the ratio of the frequencies of counts of twos and ones is small enough. A similar analysis is provided for the binomial case. For a two-component mixture of Poisson distributions the asymptotic bias of both estimators is derived and it is shown that the Zelterman estimator can experience large overestimation bias. A modified Zelterman estimator is suggested and also the bias-corrected version of Chao's estimator is considered. All four estimators are compared in a simulation study.

Direct versus indirect sexual selection: genetic basis of colour, size and recruitment in a wild bird

Indirect and direct models of sexual selection make different predictions regarding the quantitative genetic relationships between sexual ornaments and fitness. Indirect models predict that ornaments should have a high heritability and that strong positive genetic covariance should exist between fitness and the ornament. Direct models, on the other hand, make no such assumptions about the level of genetic variance in fitness and the ornament, and are therefore likely to be more important when environmental sources of variation are large. Here we test these predictions in a wild population of the blue tit (Parus caeruleus), a species in which plumage coloration has been shown to be under sexual selection. Using 3 years of cross-fostering data from over 250 breeding attempts, we partition the covariance between parental coloration and aspects of nestling fitness into a genetic and environmental component. Contrary to indirect models of sexual selection, but in agreement with direct models, we show that variation in coloration is only weakly heritable (h(2) < 0.11), and that two components of offspring fitness-nestling size and fledgling recruitment-are strongly dependent on parental effects, rather than genetic effects. Furthermore, there was no evidence of significant positive genetic covariation between parental colour and offspring traits. Contrary to direct benefit models, however, we find little evidence that variation in colour reliably indicates the level of parental care provided by either males or females. Taken together, these results indicate that the assumptions of indirect models of sexual selection are not supported by the genetic basis of the traits reported on here.

Aggregation of parasitism risk in an aphid-parasitoid system: Effects of plant patch size and aphid density

Few studies have linked density dependence of parasitism and the tritrophic environment within which a parasitoid forages. In the non-crop plant-aphid, Centaurea nigra-Uroleucon jaceae system, mixed patterns of density-dependent parasitism by the parasitoids Aphidius funebris and Trioxys centaureae were observed in a survey of a natural population. Breakdown of density-dependent parasitism revealed that density dependence was inverse in smaller colonies but direct in large colonies (>20 aphids), suggesting there is a threshold effect in parasitoid response to aphid density. The CV2 of searching parasitoids was estimated from parasitism data using a hierarchical generalized linear model, and CV2>1 for A. funebris between plant patches, while for T. centaureae CV2>1 within plant patches. In both cases, density independent heterogeneity was more important than density-dependent heterogeneity in parasitism. Parasitism by T. centaureae increased with increasing plant patch size. Manipulation of aphid colony size and plant patch size revealed that parasitism by A. funebris was directly density dependent at the range of colony sizes tested (50-200 initial aphids), and had a strong positive relationship with plant patch size. The effects of plant patch size detected for both species indicate that the tritrophic environment provides a source of host density independent heterogeneity in parasitism, and can modify density-dependent responses. (c) 2007 Gessellschaft fur Okologie. Published by Elsevier GmbH. All rights reserved.

Some general comparative points on Chao's and Zelterman's estimators of the population size

Two simple and frequently used capture–recapture estimates of the population size are compared: Chao's lower-bound estimate and Zelterman's estimate allowing for contaminated distributions. In the Poisson case it is shown that if there are only counts of ones and twos, the estimator of Zelterman is always bounded above by Chao's estimator. If counts larger than two exist, the estimator of Zelterman is becoming larger than that of Chao's, if only the ratio of the frequencies of counts of twos and ones is small enough. A similar analysis is provided for the binomial case. For a two-component mixture of Poisson distributions the asymptotic bias of both estimators is derived and it is shown that the Zelterman estimator can experience large overestimation bias. A modified Zelterman estimator is suggested and also the bias-corrected version of Chao's estimator is considered. All four estimators are compared in a simulation study.

Mammal reproductive strategies driven by offspring mortality-size relationships

Trade-offs have long been a major theme in life-history theory, but they have been hard to document. We introduce a new method that reveals patterns of divergent trade-offs after adjusting for the pervasive variation in rate of resource allocation to offspring as a function of body size and lifestyle. Results suggest that preweaning vulnerability to predation has been the major factor determining how female placental mammals allocate production between a few large and many small offspring within a litter and between a few large litters and many small ones within a reproductive season. Artiodactyls, perissodactyls, cetaceans, and pinnipeds, which give birth in the open on land or in the sea, produce a few large offspring, at infrequent intervals, because this increases their chances of escaping predation. Insectivores, fissiped carnivores, lagomorphs, and rodents, whose offspring are protected in burrows or nests, produce large litters of small newborns. Primates, bats, sloths, and anteaters, which carry their young from birth until weaning, produce litters of one or a few offspring because of the need to transport and care for them.

Bayesian sample size for exploratory clinical trials incorporating historical data

This paper presents a simple Bayesian approach to sample size determination in clinical trials. It is required that the trial should be large enough to ensure that the data collected will provide convincing evidence either that an experimental treatment is better than a control or that it fails to improve upon control by some clinically relevant difference. The method resembles standard frequentist formulations of the problem, and indeed in certain circumstances involving 'non-informative' prior information it leads to identical answers. In particular, unlike many Bayesian approaches to sample size determination, use is made of an alternative hypothesis that an experimental treatment is better than a control treatment by some specified magnitude. The approach is introduced in the context of testing whether a single stream of binary observations are consistent with a given success rate p(0). Next the case of comparing two independent streams of normally distributed responses is considered, first under the assumption that their common variance is known and then for unknown variance. Finally, the more general situation in which a large sample is to be collected and analysed according to the asymptotic properties of the score statistic is explored. Copyright (C) 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Origin of avian genome size and structure in non-avian dinosaurs

Avian genomes are small and streamlined compared with those of other amniotes by virtue of having fewer repetitive elements and less non-coding DNA(1,2). This condition has been suggested to represent a key adaptation for flight in birds, by reducing the metabolic costs associated with having large genome and cell sizes(3,4). However, the evolution of genome architecture in birds, or any other lineage, is difficult to study because genomic information is often absent for long-extinct relatives. Here we use a novel bayesian comparative method to show that bone-cell size correlates well with genome size in extant vertebrates, and hence use this relationship to estimate the genome sizes of 31 species of extinct dinosaur, including several species of extinct birds. Our results indicate that the small genomes typically associated with avian flight evolved in the saurischian dinosaur lineage between 230 and 250 million years ago, long before this lineage gave rise to the first birds. By comparison, ornithischian dinosaurs are inferred to have had much larger genomes, which were probably typical for ancestral Dinosauria. Using comparative genomic data, we estimate that genome-wide interspersed mobile elements, a class of repetitive DNA, comprised 5 - 12% of the total genome size in the saurischian dinosaur lineage, but was 7 - 19% of total genome size in ornithischian dinosaurs, suggesting that repetitive elements became less active in the saurischian lineage. These genomic characteristics should be added to the list of attributes previously considered avian but now thought to have arisen in non-avian dinosaurs, such as feathers(5), pulmonary innovations 6, and parental care and nesting

Large vibrational variational calculations using 'multimode' and an iterative diagonalization technique

We have favoured the variational (secular equation) method for the determination of the (ro-) vibrational energy levels of polyatomic molecules. We use predominantly the Watson Hamiltonian in normal coordinates and an associated given potential in the variational code 'Multimode'. The dominant cost is the construction and diagonalization of matrices of ever-increasing size. Here we address this problem, using pertubation theory to select dominant expansion terms within the Davidson-Liu iterative diagonalization method. Our chosen example is the twelve-mode molecule methanol, for which we have an ab initio representation of the potential which includes the internal rotational motion of the OH group relative to CH3. Our new algorithm allows us to obtain converged energy levels for matrices of dimensions in excess of 100 000.

Comparison of small and large deformation rheological properties of wheat dough and gluten

The rheological properties of dough and gluten are important for end-use quality of flour but there is a lack of knowledge of the relationships between fundamental and empirical tests and how they relate to flour composition and gluten quality. Dough and gluten from six breadmaking wheat qualities were subjected to a range of rheological tests. Fundamental (small-deformation) rheological characterizations (dynamic oscillatory shear and creep recovery) were performed on gluten to avoid the nonlinear influence of the starch component, whereas large deformation tests were conducted on both dough and gluten. A number of variables from the various curves were considered and subjected to a principal component analysis (PCA) to get an overview of relationships between the various variables. The first component represented variability in protein quality, associated with elasticity and tenacity in large deformation (large positive loadings for resistance to extension and initial slope of dough and gluten extension curves recorded by the SMS/Kieffer dough and gluten extensibility rig, and the tenacity and strain hardening index of dough measured by the Dobraszczyk/Roberts dough inflation system), the elastic character of the hydrated gluten proteins (large positive loading for elastic modulus [G'], large negative loadings for tan delta and steady state compliance [J(e)(0)]), the presence of high molecular weight glutenin subunits (HMW-GS) 5+10 vs. 2+12, and a size distribution of glutenin polymers shifted toward the high-end range. The second principal component was associated with flour protein content. Certain rheological data were influenced by protein content in addition to protein quality (area under dough extension curves and dough inflation curves [W]). The approach made it possible to bridge the gap between fundamental rheological properties, empirical measurements of physical properties, protein composition, and size distribution. The interpretation of this study gave indications of the molecular basis for differences in breadmaking performance.

The British ‘failure’ that never was? The Anglo-American ‘productivity gap’ in large-scale interwar retailing—evidence from the department store sector

Interwar British retailing has been characterized as having lower productivity, less developed managerial hierarchies and methods, and weaker scale economies than its US counterpart. This article examines comparative productivity for one major segment of large-scale retailing in both countries—the department store sector. Drawing on exceptionally detailed contemporary survey data, we show that British department stores in fact achieved superior performance in terms of operating costs, margins, profits, and stock-turn. While smaller British stores had lower labour productivity than US stores of equivalent size, TFP was generally higher for British stores, which also enjoyed stronger scale economies. We also examine the reasons behind Britain's surprisingly strong relative performance, using surviving original returns from the British surveys. Contrary to arguments that British retailers faced major barriers to the development of large-scale enterprises, that could reap economies of scale and scope and invest in machinery and marketing to support the growth of their primary sales functions, we find that British department stores enthusiastically embraced the retail ‘managerial revolution’—and reaped substantial benefits from this investment.

Effect of headgroup size, charge, and solvent structure on polymer−micelle interactions, studied by molecular dynamics simulations

We performed atomistic molecular dynamics simulations of anionic and cationic micelles in the presence of poly(ethylene oxide) (PEO) to understand why nonionic water-soluble polymers such as PEO interact strongly with anionic micelles but only weakly with cationic micelles. Our micelles include sodium n-dodecyl sulfate (SDS), n-dodecyl trimethylammonium chloride (DTAC), n-dodecyl ammonium chloride (DAC), and micelles in which we artificially reverse the sign of partial charges in SDS and DTAC. We observe that the polymer interacts hydrophobically with anionic SDS but only weakly with cationic DTAC and DAC, in agreement with experiment. However, the polymer also interacts with the artificial anionic DTAC but fails to interact hydrophobically with the artificial cationic SDS, illustrating that large headgroup size does not explain the weak polymer interaction with cationic micelles. In addition, we observe through simulation that this preference for interaction with anionic micelles still exists in a dipolar "dumbbell" solvent, indicating that water structure and hydrogen bonding alone cannot explain this preferential interaction. Our simulations suggest that direct electrostatic interactions between the micelle and polymer explain the preference for interaction with anionic micelles, even though the polymer overall carries no net charge. This is possible given the asymmetric distribution of negative charges on smaller atoms and positive charges oil larger units in the polymer chain.