A way forward for land-use planning to achieve policy goals by using spatial modelling scenarios

This paper investigates how demographic (socioeconomic) and land-use (physical and environmental) data can be integrated within a decision support framework to formulate and evaluate land-use planning scenarios. A case-study approach is undertaken with land-use planning scenarios for a rapidly growing coastal area in Australia, the Shire of Hervey Bay. The town and surrounding area require careful planning of the future urban growth between competing land uses. Three potential urban growth scenarios are put forth to address this issue. Scenario A ('continued growth') is based on existing socioeconomic trends. Scenario B ('maximising rates base') is derived using optimisation modelling of land-valuation data. Scenario C ('sustainable development') is derived using a number of social, economic, and environmental factors and assigning weightings of importance to each factor using a multiple criteria analysis approach. The land-use planning scenarios are presented through the use of maps and tables within a geographical information system, which delineate future possible land-use allocations up until 2021. The planning scenarios are evaluated by using a goal-achievement matrix approach. The matrix is constructed with a number of criteria derived from key policy objectives outlined in the regional growth management framework and town planning schemes. The authors of this paper examine the final efficiency scores calculated for each of the three planning scenarios and discuss the advantages and disadvantages of the three land-use modelling approaches used to formulate the final scenarios.

Forest logging and institutional thresholds in developing south-east Asian economies: A conceptual model

Many developing south-east Asian governments are not capturing full rent from domestic forest logging operations. Such rent losses are commonly related to institutional failures, where informal institutions tend to dominate the control of forestry activity in spite of weakly enforced regulations. Our model is an attempt to add a new dimension to thinking about deforestation. We present a simple conceptual model, based on individual decisions rather than social or forest planning, which includes the human dynamics of participation in informal activity and the relatively slower ecological dynamics of changes in forest resources. We demonstrate how incumbent informal logging operations can be persistent, and that any spending aimed at replacing the informal institutions can only be successful if it pushes institutional settings past some threshold. (C) 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Noise, regularizers, and unrealizable scenarios in online learning from restricted training sets

We study the dynamics of on-line learning in multilayer neural networks where training examples are sampled with repetition and where the number of examples scales with the number of network weights. The analysis is carried out using the dynamical replica method aimed at obtaining a closed set of coupled equations for a set of macroscopic variables from which both training and generalization errors can be calculated. We focus on scenarios whereby training examples are corrupted by additive Gaussian output noise and regularizers are introduced to improve the network performance. The dependence of the dynamics on the noise level, with and without regularizers, is examined, as well as that of the asymptotic values obtained for both training and generalization errors. We also demonstrate the ability of the method to approximate the learning dynamics in structurally unrealizable scenarios. The theoretical results show good agreement with those obtained by computer simulations.

The use of counterfactual scenarios as a means to assess policy deadweight:an Irish case study

The evaluation of industrial policy interventions has attracted increasing policy and academic attention in recent years. Despite the widespread consensus regarding the need for evaluation, the issue of how to evaluate, and the associated methodological considerations, continue to be issues of considerable debate. The authors develop an approach to estimate the net additionality of financial assistance from Enterprise Ireland to indigenously owned firms in Ireland for the period 2000 to 2002. With a sample of Enterprise Ireland assisted firms, an innovative, self-assessment, in-depth, face-to-face, interview methodology was adopted. The authors also explore a way of incorporating the indirect benefits of assistance into derived deadweight estimate issue which is seldom discussed in the context of deadweight estimates. They conclude by reflecting on the key methodological lessons learned from the evaluation process, and highlight some pertinent evaluation issues which should form the focus of much future discussion in this field of research.

Behaviour of concrete frame structures under localised fire scenarios

This thesis encompasses an investigation of the behaviour of concrete frame structure under localised fire scenarios by implementing a constitutive model using finite-element computer program. The investigation phase included properties of material at elevated temperature, description of computer program, thermal and structural analyses. Transient thermal properties of material have been employed in this study to achieve reasonable results. The finite-element computer package of ANSYS is utilized in the present analyses to examine the effect of fire on the concrete frame under five various fire scenarios. In addition, a report of full-scale BRE Cardington concrete building designed to Eurocode2 and BS8110 subjected to realistic compartment fire is also presented. The transient analyses of present model included additional specific heat to the base value of dry concrete at temperature 100°C and 200°C. The combined convective-radiation heat transfer coefficient and transient thermal expansion have also been considered in the analyses. For the analyses with the transient strains included, the constitutive model based on empirical formula in a full thermal strain-stress model proposed by Li and Purkiss (2005) is employed. Comparisons between the models with and without transient strains included are also discussed. Results of present study indicate that the behaviour of complete structure is significantly different from the behaviour of individual isolated members based on current design methods. Although the current tabulated design procedures are conservative when the entire building performance is considered, it should be noted that the beneficial and detrimental effects of thermal expansion in complete structures should be taken into account. Therefore, developing new fire engineering methods from the study of complete structures rather than from individual isolated member behaviour is essential.

UK business schools : historical contexts and future scenarios:summary report from an EBK/AIM Management Research Forum

This report begins with an analysis of the historical development of management education in Britain since 1945. It provides a context for understanding conflicting themes in current debates about business schools and examines how the different types of business school have evolved in the UK within very different education institutions. It places the current challenges faced by business schools in context, offers guidance on the strategic options available, and discusses some of the practical implications of the different paths outlined.