990 resultados para LIKELIHOOD RATIO STATISTICS


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Universidade Estadual de Campinas . Faculdade de Educação Física

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Unequal sex ratios lead to the loss of genetic variability, decreasing the viability of populations in the long term. Anthropogenic activities often disturb the natural habitats and can cause alterations in sex ratio and morphological characteristics of several species. Forest fragmentation is a major conservation concern, so that understanding its effects in natural populations is essential. In this study, we evaluated the sex ratio and the morphological characteristics of Rufous Gnateaters (Conopophaga lineata (Wied, 1831)) in small and large forest fragments in Minas Gerais, Brazil. Birds (n = 89) were sexed by plumage characteristics and molecular markers. The molecular analysis showed that plumage is not a totally reliable method for sexing Rufous Gnateaters. We observed that sex ratio did not differ between large and small forest fragments, but birds in small fragments had larger wings and tarsus. Wing and tarsus changes may affect the movement ability of individuals within and among forest fragments. In conclusion, Rufous Gnateaters have been able to survive in both small and large Atlantic rain forest fragments without altering their sex ratio, but morphological changes can be prejudicial to their long term survival.

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O estudo avalia diferenças quanto às características sociodemográficas, de estilo de vida e de condições de saúde entre adultos com e sem linha telefônica residencial, valendo-se de dados de inquérito domiciliar de saúde realizado em Campinas, São Paulo, Brasil (2008/2009). Trata-se de estudo transversal de base populacional com 2.637 adultos (18 anos e mais). Análises descritivas, testes qui-quadrado, prevalências e respectivos intervalos de 95% de confiança foram calculados. Estimaram-se os vícios associados à não cobertura da população sem telefone antes e após o ajuste de pós-estratificação. O impacto do vício nos intervalos de confiança foi avaliado pela razão de vício. Cerca de 76% dos entrevistados possuíam linha telefônica residencial. Exceto para situação conjugal, foram observadas diferenças sociodemográficas segundo posse de telefone. Após o ajuste de pós-estratificação, houve redução do vício das estimativas para as variáveis associadas à posse de linha telefônica, no entanto, exceto para osteoporose, o ajuste de pós-estratificação foi insuficiente para corrigir o vício de não cobertura.

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OBJETIVOS: comparar o crescimento alcançado e a prevalência de baixa estatura na idade pré-escolar entre recém-nascidos de peso insuficiente (PNI) e de peso adequado (PNA). MÉTODOS: foram estudadas 323 crianças com PNI e 886 com PNA de famílias de baixa renda de quinze creches filantrópicas de Santo André, São Paulo, Brasil, em 2001 e 2002. As variáveis foram o escore Z de peso e de estatura para a idade, pelo referencial Center for Disease Control (CDC) and National Center for Health Statistics (NCHS) 2000, comparando-se as médias dos dois grupos. Calculou-se a razão de prevalência (RP) de baixa estatura na idade pré-escolar em decorrência do peso insuficiente ao nascer. RESULTADOS: o escore z médio de peso foi -0,09 e 0,39 e o escore z médio de estatura foi de -0,06 e de 0,24 para as crianças de PNI e de PNA, respectivamente. A prevalência de baixa estatura foi de 2,78% para as crianças com PNI e de 0,79% para aquelas com PNA. A RP de baixa estatura na idade pré-escolar para as crianças de PNI foi de 3,5 (IC95% 1,3-9,4). CONCLUSÕES: as crianças com PNI apresentaram crescimento inferior e maior risco de falhas de crescimento até a idade pré-escolar, sugerindo um efeito negativo do peso insuficiente ao nascer sobre o crescimento infantil.

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PURPOSE: To analyze the usefulness of the weight gain/height gain ratio from birth to two and three years of age as a predictive risk indicator of excess weight at preschool age. METHODS: The weight and height/length of 409 preschool children at daycare centers were measured according to internationally recommended rules. The weight values and body mass indices of the children were transformed into a z-score per the standard method described by the World Health Organization. The Pearson correlation coefficients (rP) and the linear regressions between the anthropometric parameters and the body mass index z-scores of preschool children were statistically analyzed (alpha = 0.05). RESULTS: The mean age of the study population was 3.2 years (± 0.3 years). The prevalence of excess weight was 28.8%, and the prevalence of overweight and obesity was 8.8%. The correlation coefficients between the body mass index z-scores of the preschool children and the birth weights or body mass indices at birth were low (0.09 and 0.10, respectively). There was a high correlation coefficient (rP = 0.79) between the mean monthly gain of weight and the body mass index z-score of preschool children. A higher coefficient (rP = 0.93) was observed between the ratio of the mean weight gain per height gain (g/cm) and the preschool children body mass index z-score. The coefficients and their differences were statistically significant. CONCLUSION: Regardless of weight or length at birth, the mean ratio between the weight gain per g/cm of height growth from birth presented a strong correlation with the body mass index of preschool children. These results suggest that this ratio may be a good indicator of the risk of excess weight and obesity in preschool-aged children.

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Background: The purpose of this study was to analyze the relationship between adolescents' physical activity practice and their perception about the environment of urban parks. Methods: A school-based representative sample (n = 1,718; boys = 40.4%) of teenagers of Curitiba, Southern region of Brazil. A questionnaire was employed to identify perceived parks environmental features as well as physical activity practice in the parks (PAP), habitual physical activity (HPA) and demographics. The relationship between PAP and parks environments was analyzed through multivariate logistic regression controlling for age and socioeconomic status, HPA and parks distance. Results: After controlling for confounders PAP was associated with lack of space to be physically active, activities to choose from and equipments for both boys and girls, (odds ratio (OR)-ranging from 1.5 to 1.8). Among boys, having people of same age (OR = 1.5) and accessibility (OR = 2.0) showed association with PAP only in crude analysis. However, among girls, to be bulled or teased (OR = 1.4) and accessibility (OR = 1.7) were associated with PAP after confounding control. Conclusions: The results showed that specific attributes in parks may be considered and offered to increase the likelihood of physical activity practice among adolescents in such locations.

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A generalized version of the nonequilibrium linear Glauber model with q states in d dimensions is introduced and analyzed. The model is fully symmetric, its dynamics being invariant under all permutations of the q states. Exact expressions for the two-time autocorrelation and response functions on a d-dimensional lattice are obtained. In the stationary regime, the fluctuation-dissipation theorem holds, while in the transient the aging is observed with the fluctuation-dissipation ratio leading to the value predicted for the linear Glauber model.

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It is well known that striation spacing may be related to the crack growth rate, da/dN, through Paris equation, as well as the maximum and minimum loads under service loading conditions. These loads define the load ratio, R, and are considered impossible to be evaluated from the inter-spacing striations analysis. In this way, this study discusses the methodology proposed by Furukawa to evaluate the maximum and minimum loads based on the experimental fact that the relative height of a striation, H, and the striation spacing, s, are strongly influenced by the load ratio, R. Fatigue tests in C(T) specimens were conducted on SAE 7475-T7351 Al alloy plates at room temperature and the results showed a straightforward correlation between the parameters H, s, and R. Measurements of striation height, H, were performed using scanning electron microscopy and field emission gun (FEG) after sectioning the specimen at a large inclined angle to amplify the height of the striations. The results showed that for increasing R the values of H/s tend to increase. Striation height, striation spacing, and load ratio correlations were obtained, which allows one to estimate service loadings from fatigue fracture surface survey.

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Diagnostic methods have been an important tool in regression analysis to detect anomalies, such as departures from error assumptions and the presence of outliers and influential observations with the fitted models. Assuming censored data, we considered a classical analysis and Bayesian analysis assuming no informative priors for the parameters of the model with a cure fraction. A Bayesian approach was considered by using Markov Chain Monte Carlo Methods with Metropolis-Hasting algorithms steps to obtain the posterior summaries of interest. Some influence methods, such as the local influence, total local influence of an individual, local influence on predictions and generalized leverage were derived, analyzed and discussed in survival data with a cure fraction and covariates. The relevance of the approach was illustrated with a real data set, where it is shown that, by removing the most influential observations, the decision about which model best fits the data is changed.

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Background: Major depression is one of the leading causes of disability worldwide, yet epidemiologic data are not available for many countries, particularly low- to middle-income countries. In this paper, we present data on the prevalence, impairment and demographic correlates of depression from 18 high and low-to middle-income countries in the World Mental Health Survey Initiative. Methods: Major depressive episodes (MDE) as defined by the Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders, fourth edition (DMS-IV) were evaluated in face-to-face interviews using the World Health Organization Composite International Diagnostic Interview (CIDI). Data from 18 countries were analyzed in this report (n = 89,037). All countries surveyed representative, population-based samples of adults. Results: The average lifetime and 12-month prevalence estimates of DSM-IV MDE were 14.6% and 5.5% in the ten high-income and 11.1% and 5.9% in the eight low- to middle-income countries. The average age of onset ascertained retrospectively was 25.7 in the high-income and 24.0 in low- to middle-income countries. Functional impairment was associated with recency of MDE. The female: male ratio was about 2: 1. In high-income countries, younger age was associated with higher 12-month prevalence; by contrast, in several low-to middle-income countries, older age was associated with greater likelihood of MDE. The strongest demographic correlate in high-income countries was being separated from a partner, and in low- to middle-income countries, was being divorced or widowed. Conclusions: MDE is a significant public-health concern across all regions of the world and is strongly linked to social conditions. Future research is needed to investigate the combination of demographic risk factors that are most strongly associated with MDE in the specific countries included in the WMH.

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Background: Genome wide association studies (GWAS) are becoming the approach of choice to identify genetic determinants of complex phenotypes and common diseases. The astonishing amount of generated data and the use of distinct genotyping platforms with variable genomic coverage are still analytical challenges. Imputation algorithms combine directly genotyped markers information with haplotypic structure for the population of interest for the inference of a badly genotyped or missing marker and are considered a near zero cost approach to allow the comparison and combination of data generated in different studies. Several reports stated that imputed markers have an overall acceptable accuracy but no published report has performed a pair wise comparison of imputed and empiric association statistics of a complete set of GWAS markers. Results: In this report we identified a total of 73 imputed markers that yielded a nominally statistically significant association at P < 10(-5) for type 2 Diabetes Mellitus and compared them with results obtained based on empirical allelic frequencies. Interestingly, despite their overall high correlation, association statistics based on imputed frequencies were discordant in 35 of the 73 (47%) associated markers, considerably inflating the type I error rate of imputed markers. We comprehensively tested several quality thresholds, the haplotypic structure underlying imputed markers and the use of flanking markers as predictors of inaccurate association statistics derived from imputed markers. Conclusions: Our results suggest that association statistics from imputed markers showing specific MAF (Minor Allele Frequencies) range, located in weak linkage disequilibrium blocks or strongly deviating from local patterns of association are prone to have inflated false positive association signals. The present study highlights the potential of imputation procedures and proposes simple procedures for selecting the best imputed markers for follow-up genotyping studies.

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The objective was to determine whether aging of sperm caused by incubation at normothermic (38.5 C) or heat shock (40 C) temperatures for 4 h prior to oocyte insemination affects sperm motility, fertilizing ability, competence of the resultant embryo to develop to the blastocyst stage and blastocyst sex ratio. In the first experiment, the percent of sperm that were motile was reduced by aging (P<0.001) and the reduction in motility was greater for sperm at 40 C compared to sperm at 38.5 C (P<0.01). In the second experiment, oocytes were inseminated with aged sperm. A smaller percent of oocytes fertilized with sperm aged at either temperature cleaved by Day 3 after insemination than oocytes fertilized with fresh sperm (P<0.05). There was no effect of sperm aging on the percent of oocytes or cleaved embryos that developed to the blastocyst stage. Aging of sperm before fertilization at 38.5 C reduced the percent of blastocysts that were male (P=0.08). In the third experiment, incubation of sperm at 38.5 C or 40 C for 4 h did not reduce fertilizing ability of sperm as determined by pronuclear formation at 18 h post insemination. In conclusion, aging of sperm reduced cleavage rate and the percent of blastocysts that were males but had no effect on the developmental capacity of the. embryo. The effect of aging on cleavage rate may represent reduced motility and errors occurring after fertilization and pronuclear formation. Aging at a temperature characteristic of maternal hyperthermia had little additional effect except that polyspermy was reduced. Results indicate that embryo competence for development to the blastocyst stage is independent of sperm damage as a result of aging for 4 h at normothermic or hyperthermic temperatures.

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The VISTA near infrared survey of the Magellanic System (VMC) will provide deep YJK(s) photometry reaching stars in the oldest turn-off point throughout the Magellanic Clouds (MCs). As part of the preparation for the survey, we aim to access the accuracy in the star formation history (SFH) that can be expected from VMC data, in particular for the Large Magellanic Cloud (LMC). To this aim, we first simulate VMC images containing not only the LMC stellar populations but also the foreground Milky Way (MW) stars and background galaxies. The simulations cover the whole range of density of LMC field stars. We then perform aperture photometry over these simulated images, access the expected levels of photometric errors and incompleteness, and apply the classical technique of SFH-recovery based on the reconstruction of colour-magnitude diagrams (CMD) via the minimisation of a chi-squared-like statistics. We verify that the foreground MW stars are accurately recovered by the minimisation algorithms, whereas the background galaxies can be largely eliminated from the CMD analysis due to their particular colours and morphologies. We then evaluate the expected errors in the recovered star formation rate as a function of stellar age, SFR(t), starting from models with a known age-metallicity relation (AMR). It turns out that, for a given sky area, the random errors for ages older than similar to 0.4 Gyr seem to be independent of the crowding. This can be explained by a counterbalancing effect between the loss of stars from a decrease in the completeness and the gain of stars from an increase in the stellar density. For a spatial resolution of similar to 0.1 deg(2), the random errors in SFR(t) will be below 20% for this wide range of ages. On the other hand, due to the lower stellar statistics for stars younger than similar to 0.4 Gyr, the outer LMC regions will require larger areas to achieve the same level of accuracy in the SFR( t). If we consider the AMR as unknown, the SFH-recovery algorithm is able to accurately recover the input AMR, at the price of an increase of random errors in the SFR(t) by a factor of about 2.5. Experiments of SFH-recovery performed for varying distance modulus and reddening indicate that these parameters can be determined with (relative) accuracies of Delta(m-M)(0) similar to 0.02 mag and Delta E(B-V) similar to 0.01 mag, for each individual field over the LMC. The propagation of these errors in the SFR(t) implies systematic errors below 30%. This level of accuracy in the SFR(t) can reveal significant imprints in the dynamical evolution of this unique and nearby stellar system, as well as possible signatures of the past interaction between the MCs and the MW.

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The magnetized MINOS Near Detector, at a depth of 225 mwe, is used to measure the atmospheric muon charge ratio. The ratio of observed positive to negative atmospheric muon rates, using 301 days of data, is measured to be 1.266 +/- 0.001(stat)(-0.014)(+0.015)(syst). This measurement is consistent with previous results from other shallow underground detectors and is 0.108 +/- 0.019(stat + syst) lower than the measurement at the functionally identical MINOS Far Detector at a depth of 2070 mwe. This increase in charge ratio as a function of depth is consistent with an increase in the fraction of muons arising from kaon decay for increasing muon surface energies.

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The energy dependence of the neutrino-iron and antineutrino-iron inclusive charged-current cross sections and their ratio have been measured using a high-statistics sample with the MINOS near detector exposed to the NuMI beam from the main injector at Fermilab. Neutrino and antineutrino fluxes were determined using a low hadronic energy subsample of charged-current events. We report measurements of nu-Fe ((nu) over bar - Fe) cross section in the energy range 3-50 GeV (5-50 GeV) with precision of 2%-8% (3%-9%) and their ratio which is measured with precision 2%-8%. The data set spans the region from low energy, where accurate measurements are sparse, up to the high-energy scaling region where the cross section is well understood.