Capturing expert knowledge for threatened species assessments: a case study using NatureServe conservation status ranks

Assessments for assigning the conservation status of threatened species that are based purely on subjective judgements become problematic because assessments can be influenced by hidden assumptions, personal biases and perceptions of risks, making the assessment process difficult to repeat. This can result in inconsistent assessments and misclassifications, which can lead to a lack of confidence in species assessments. It is almost impossible to Understand an expert's logic or visualise the underlying reasoning behind the many hidden assumptions used throughout the assessment process. In this paper, we formalise the decision making process of experts, by capturing their logical ordering of information, their assumptions and reasoning, and transferring them into a set of decisions rules. We illustrate this through the process used to evaluate the conservation status of species under the NatureServe system (Master, 1991). NatureServe status assessments have been used for over two decades to set conservation priorities for threatened species throughout North America. We develop a conditional point-scoring method, to reflect the current subjective process. In two test comparisons, 77% of species' assessments using the explicit NatureServe method matched the qualitative assessments done subjectively by NatureServe staff. Of those that differed, no rank varied by more than one rank level under the two methods. In general, the explicit NatureServe method tended to be more precautionary than the subjective assessments. The rank differences that emerged from the comparisons may be due, at least in part, to the flexibility of the qualitative system, which allows different factors to be weighted on a species-by-species basis according to expert judgement. The method outlined in this study is the first documented attempt to explicitly define a transparent process for weighting and combining factors under the NatureServe system. The process of eliciting expert knowledge identifies how information is combined and highlights any inconsistent logic that may not be obvious in Subjective decisions. The method provides a repeatable, transparent, and explicit benchmark for feedback, further development, and improvement. (C) 2004 Elsevier SAS. All rights reserved.

Protocols for listing threatened species can forecast extinction

Risk-ranking protocols are used widely to classify the conservation status of the world's species. Here we report on the first empirical assessment of their reliability by using a retrospective study of 18 pairs of bird and mammal species (one species extinct and the other extant) with eight different assessors. The performance of individual assessors varied substantially, but performance was improved by incorporating uncertainty in parameter estimates and consensus among the assessors. When this was done, the ranks from the protocols were consistent with the extinction outcome in 70-80% of pairs and there were mismatches in only 10-20% of cases. This performance was similar to the subjective judgements of the assessors after they had estimated the range and population parameters required by the protocols, and better than any single parameter. When used to inform subjective judgement, the protocols therefore offer a means of reducing unpredictable biases that may be associated with expert input and have the advantage of making the logic behind assessments explicit. We conclude that the protocols are useful for forecasting extinctions, although they are prone to some errors that have implications for conservation. Some level of error is to be expected, however, given the influence of chance on extinction. The performance of risk assessment protocols may be improved by providing training in the application of the protocols, incorporating uncertainty in parameter estimates and using consensus among multiple assessors, including some who are experts in the application of the protocols. Continued testing and refinement of the protocols may help to provide better absolute estimates of risk, particularly by re-evaluating how the protocols accommodate missing data.

Believing badly

This paper explores the grounds upon which moral judgment of a person's beliefs is properly made. The beliefs in question are non-moral beliefs and the objects of moral judgment are individual instances of believing. We argue that instances of believing may be morally wrong on any of three distinct grounds: (i) by constituting a moral hazard, (ii) by being the result of immoral inquiry, or (iii) by arising from vicious inner processes of belief formation. On this way of articulating the basis of moral judgment of belief it becomes clear that rational and epistemic norms do not exhaust the kinds of normative judgment properly made of a person's state of believing. We argue that there are instances of believing that are both rational and true and yet morally wrong.

An expert system on design of liquid-retaining structures with blackboard architecture

The design of liquid-retaining structures involves many decisions to be made by the designer based on rules of thumb, heuristics, judgement, codes of practice and previous experience. Structural design problems are often ill structured and there is a need to develop programming environments that can incorporate engineering judgement along with algorithmic tools. Recent developments in artificial intelligence have made it possible to develop an expert system that can provide expert advice to the user in the selection of design criteria and design parameters. This paper introduces the development of an expert system in the design of liquid-retaining structures using blackboard architecture. An expert system shell, Visual Rule Studio, is employed to facilitate the development of this prototype system. It is a coupled system combining symbolic processing with traditional numerical processing. The expert system developed is based on British Standards Code of Practice BS8007. Explanations are made to assist inexperienced designers or civil engineering students to learn how to design liquid-retaining structures effectively and sustainably in their design practices. The use of this expert system in disseminating heuristic knowledge and experience to practitioners and engineering students is discussed.

Occupational therapists' decision making in three therapy settings in Australia

Can a work setting with its organizational, cultural, and practical considerations influence the way occupational therapists make decisions regarding client interventions? There is currently a paucity of evidence available to answer this question. This study aimed to investigate the influence of work setting on therapists’ clinical reasoning in the management of clients with cerebral palsy and upper limb hypertonicity. Specifically the study aimed to examine therapists’ objective and stated policies, and their intervention decisions using Social Judgement Theory methodology. Participants were eighteen occupational therapists with more than five years experience with clients with cerebral palsy who were asked to make intervention decisions for clients represented by 90 case vignettes. They worked in three settings, hospitals (5), schools (6), and community (6). The results indicated that therapy settings did influence therapists’ decisions about intervention choices but not their objective and subjective policy decisions.

Multiparametric evaluation of dysphonic severity

In recent years, the multiparametric approach for evaluating perceptual rating of voice quality has been advocated. This study evaluates the accuracy of predicting perceived overall severity of voice quality with a minimal set of aerodynamic, voice range profile (phonetogram), and acoustic perturbation measures. One hundred and twelve dysphonic persons (93 women and 19 men) with laryngeal pathologies and 41 normal controls (35 women and six men) with normal voices participated in this study. Perceptual severity judgement was carried out by four listeners rating the G (overall grade) parameter of the GRBAS scale.(1) The minimal set of instrumental measures was selected based on the ability of the measure to discriminate between dysphonic and normal voices, and to attain at least a moderate correlation with perceived overall severity. Results indicated that perceived overall severity was best described by maximum phonation time of sustained /a/, peak intraoral pressure of the consonant-vowel /pi/ strings production, voice range profile area, and acoustic jitter. Direct-entry discriminant function analysis revealed that these four voice measures in combination correctly predicted 67.3% of perceived overall severity levels.

Efficacy of speech pathology management for chronic cough: a randomised placebo controlled trial of treatment efficacy

Background: Chronic cough that persists despite medical treatment may respond to speech pathology intervention, but the efficacy of such treatment has not been investigated in prospective randomised trials. The aim of this study was to determine the efficacy of a speech pathology intervention programme for chronic cough. Methods: A single blind, randomised, placebo controlled trial was conducted in 87 patients with chronic cough that persisted despite medical treatment. Patients were randomly allocated to receive either a specifically designed speech pathology intervention or a placebo intervention. Participants in both groups attended four intervention sessions with a qualified speech pathologist. Results: Participants in the treatment group had a significant reduction in cough (8.9 to 4.6, p, 0.001), breathing (7.9 to 4.7, p < 0.001), voice (7.3 to 4.6, p < 0.001) upper airway (8.9 to 5.9, p < 0.001) symptom scores and limitation (2.3 to 1.6, p < 0.001) ratings following intervention. There was also a significant reduction in breathing (6.8 to 5.6, p=0.047), cough (7.6 to 6.3, p=0.014), and limitation ( 2.3 to 2.0, p=0.038) scores in the placebo group, but the degree of improvement was significantly less than in the treatment group (p < 0.01). Clinical judgement of outcome indicated successful ratings in 88% of participants in the treatment group compared with 14% in the placebo group ( p, 0.001). Conclusion: Speech pathology is an effective management intervention for chronic cough which may be a viable alternative for patients who do not respond to medical treatment.

Psychometric assessment of recovery from mild traumatic brain injury

The Rapid Screen of Concussion (RSC) is a brief psychometric test battery, designed to provide a functional criterion to aid clinical diagnosis of mild traumatic brain injury (mTBI). The present research aimed to examine the utility of this instrument for assessing recovery after mTBI. Three studies were conducted. In Study 1, Discriminant Function Analysis was performed to determine how well the RSC differentiated uninjured controls (N¼16), from mTBI patients (N¼22) and moderate to severe TBI patients (N¼14), several months post-injury. As predicted, moderate to severe TBI patients achieved lower scores than the mTBI and control groups. The RSC also successfully differentiated between each of the diagnostic groups, yielding an overall correct classification rate of 75%. Study 2 examined the predictive utility of the RSC in the mTBI sample (N¼22). Acute injury performance on the RSC was correlated with post-injury scores at an average of 5.5 months post-injury. Statistically significant partial correlation coefficients (r¼0.53r¼0.80) were found for each of the subtests, showing that low acute RSC scores were predictive of poor recovery scores on the RSC after mTBI. In the third study, Reliable Change Indices were calculated on the RSC subtests to examine individual patterns of recovery from mTBI. While 17 of the 23 participants made a significant improvement on their acute injury DSST scores (74%), only 13 of 25 made a significant improvement on the Rapid Sentence Judgement Test (52%), highlighting differential recovery of function, and challenging the notion of full recovery from mTBI within 3 months. These overall results offer support for the construct and predictive validity of the RSC and demonstrate that inexpensive tests of brain function may be useful for managing mTBI acutely for prognosis.

A reflexive course for Masters students to understand and plan their own continuing professional development

Continuing Professional Development (CPD) is seen as a vital part of a professional engineer’s career, by professional engineering institutions as well as individual engineers. Factors such as ever-changing workforce requirements and rapid technological change have resulted in engineers no longer being able to rely just on the skills they learnt at university or can pick up on the job; they must undergo a structured professional development with clear objectives to develop further professional knowledge, values and skills. This paper presents a course developed for students undertaking a Master of Engineering or Master of Project Management at the University of Queensland. This course was specifically designed to help students plan their continuing professional development, while developing professional skills such as communication, ethical reasoning, critical judgement and the need for sustainable development. The course utilised a work integrated learning pedagogy applied within a formal learning environment, and followed the competency based chartered membership program of Engineers Australia, the peak professional body of engineers in Australia. The course was developed and analysed using an action learning approach. The main research question was “Can extra teaching and learning activities be developed that will simulate workplace learning?” The students continually assessed and reflected upon their current competencies, skills and abilities, and planed for the future attainment of specific competencies which they identified as important to their future careers. Various evaluation methods, including surveys before and after the course, were used to evaluate the action learning intervention. It was found that the assessment developed for the course was one of the most important factors, not only in driving student learning, as is widely accepted, but also in changing the students’ understandings and acceptance of the need for continuous professional development. The students also felt that the knowledge, values and skills they developed would be beneficial for their future careers, as they were developed within the context of their own professional development, rather than to just get through the course. © 2005, American Society for Engineering Education

Developing a protocol for the use of telenursing in community health in Australia

As the first step in developing a protocol for the use of video-phones in community health, we carried out a feasibility study among clients with a range of health needs. Clients were equipped with a commercially available video-phone connected using the client's home telephone line. A hands-free speaker-phone and a miniature video-camera (for close-up views) were connected to the video-phone. Ten clients participated: five required wound care, two palliative care, two long-term therapy monitoring and one was a rural client. All but two were aged 75 years or more. Each client had a video-phone for an average of two to three weeks. During the six months of the study, 43 client calls were made, of which 36 (84%) were converted to video-calls. The speaker-phone was used on 24 occasions (56%) and the close-up camera on 23 occasions (53%). Both clients and nurses rated the equipment as satisfactory or better in questionnaires. None of the nurses felt that the equipment was difficult to use, including unpacking it and setting it up; only one client found it difficult. Taking into account the clients' responses, including their free-text comments, a judgement was made as to whether the video-phone had been useful to their nursing care. In seven cases it was felt to be unhelpful and in three cases it was judged helpful. Although the study sample was small, the results suggest that home telenursing is likely to be useful for rural clients in Australia, unsurprisingly, because of the distances involved.

ACONSELHAMENTO PASTORAL E A LEITURA POPULAR DA BÍBLIA: UM DIÁLOGO COM O PENSAMENTO DE CARLOS MESTERS

O presente trabalho aborda as contribuições da Leitura Popular da Bíblia (LPB), na perspectiva de Carlos Mesters, para os processos de cuidado no Aconselhamento Pastoral (AP). Ao repensar criticamente os modelos de Aconselhamento Pastoral (AP), a partir dos principais autores publicados no Brasil sobre o tema, verifica-se que o como fazer do aconselhamento pastoral é fundamental. Da mesma forma que refletir o como usar a Bíblia nos processos de cuidado e auxílio no aconselhamento deveria estar diretamente relacionado ao saber escutar e discernir a necessidade do outro. Sendo assim, é proveitoso integrar à reflexão e prática do cuidado pastoral, enquanto aconselhamento, as perspectivas da espiritualidade e das ciências do comportamento humano com a metodologia da LPB. A LPB empresta seu modo hermenêutico de ver, julgar e agir e aproveita a pedagogia de Paulo Freire nos processos relacionais entre aconselhador/a e aconselhando/a. Este trabalho pretende assim propor uma leitura de mundo que parta da vida vivida levando em consideração a idade, etnia, situação socioeconômica, estado civil, gênero, etc., no sentido de proporcionar saúde integral ao ser humano. Este tipo de leitura articulada com as contribuições da LPB pode promover melhor as habilidades para a escuta que reconheça as relações no Aconselhamento Pastoral como um processo pedagógico e libertador entre aconselhador/a e aconselhando/a. Processo em que a leitura contextualizada, integral e libertadora da Bíblia e ciências humanas iluminam o caminho para uma vida mais humanizadora.

MALAQUIAS, MENSAGEIRO DA JUSTIÇA:UM ESTUDO A PARTIR DO QUARTO ORÁCULO (2,17-3,5)

O livro de Malaquias apresenta oráculos que conservam informações relevantes do período pós exílico sob o domínio da Pérsia e, especialmente, os problemas religiosos focalizando a displicência dos sacerdotes no cumprimento de suas funções e os problemas sociais apontando para um amplo movimento de opressão externa e interna. Esta pesquisa buscou verificar, no primeiro capítulo, como a mensagem de Malaquias através de sua forma e conteúdos visava aplacar as insatisfações internas dos grupos que habitavam o território de Judá. Neste capítulo, foram abordadas as discussões histórico-literárias sobre data, autoria, destinatários, forma do anúncio. Ainda procurou-se realizar levantamentos históricos verificando o sistema e as estruturas de opressão dos persas no território de Judá e também as faces da reorganização da sociedade de Judá. O segundo capítulo enfatizou, mais propriamente, o trabalho exegético no quarto oráculo (2,17-3,5). Neste pode-se verificar uma síntese dos temas centrais da mensagem de Malaquias: O juízo divino que viria pela negligência religiosa e que exigia compromissos com a justiça prática na vida do povo. A partir das discussões exegéticas buscou-se verificar como o profeta apresentou ao povo e aos sacerdotes quais seriam os agentes e as ações transformadoras que Javé promoveria para restaurar a justiça e o culto purificado. O terceiro capítulo apresenta um tema recorrente nos oráculos do livro de Malaquias: a justiça. Para isso, foram analisadas três perícopes que tratam o tema da justiça enfocadamente, as influências do sistema judicial persa na prática da justiça cotidiana em Judá e a realidade de opressão nos sistema de parentesco entre as famílias (clãs) que habitavam o território de Judá - (2,10-16; 2,17-3,5 e 3,13-21). A pesquisa de Malaquias aponta para um profeta engajado política e socialmente. O Mensageiro manteve os ideais proféticos e desejou reacender os valores da aliança entre o povo e fortalecer a confiança na ação de Javé que restauraria a justiça na prática cotidiana.(AU)

UMA ÁNALISE EXEGÉTICA DA PORÇÃO DE MIQUEIAS 2,1-5: A SITUAÇÃO SOCIOECONÔMICA EM JUDÁ E SUAS IMPLICAÇÕES NA HERANÇA DOS CAMPONESES NA SEFELÁ JUDAÍTA NO SÉCULO VIII A.C.

Esta pesquisa procura examinar, à luz da metodologia exegética, a perícope de Miqueias 2,1-5, a fim de reconstruir o cenário no qual emergiu a dura crítica social do profeta. O texto apresenta, em sua análise literária, características de um dito profético coeso, em estilo poético. Sua estrutura encontra-se dividida em duas unidades (denúncia e castigo), sendo que cada uma das unidades possui outras duas subunidades (genérica e específica). O gênero literário harmoniza-se com um dito profético de julgamento geralmente conhecido como oráculo ai . A análise da dimensão histórica situa o acontecimento fundante em 701 a.C., na Sefelá judaíta. Numa análise investigativa do conteúdo da denúncia norteado pelo modelo teórico do modo de produção tributário, observa-se um conflito entre dois grupos. Nesse conflito, Miqueias faz uma acusação a um grupo de poder em Judá que planeja e executa ações criminosas contra a herança camponesa. O castigo descreve a conspiração e o plano divino contra esse grupo de poder. Javé havia planejado um mal idêntico ao que eles haviam cometido, desonra e privação de suas possessões. Os valores culturais de honra e vergonha subjazem a esse oráculo. Por descumprirem seus deveres junto a Javé e ao povo, os criminosos perderiam todos os seus direitos e, sobretudo, a honra perante a própria comunidade. Com base no modelo teórico do modo de produção tributário, constata-se que, na situação social em Judá no oitavo século, prevalecia um conflito entre campo e cidade. As comunidades aldeãs pagavam tributo à cidade em forma de produtos e serviços. A excessiva arrecadação de tributo e as falhas no sistema de ajuda mútua forçaram os indivíduos e famílias a contrair dívidas, a hipotecar suas terras herdadas dos pais e eventualmente perdê-las. O profeta Miqueias é o porta-voz do protesto da classe campesina que resolve reagir aos desmandos praticados pela elite citadina. Para ele, Javé escuta a queixa dos que estão sendo oprimidos e intervém na história tomando o partido do oprimido.(AU)

Visual signs and symptoms of Alzheimer's disease

Alzheimer's disease is the commonest degenerative disease of the nervous system to affect elderly people. It is characterised by 'dementia', a global cognitive decline involving loss of short term memory, judgement and emotional control. In addition, patients may suffer a range of visual problems including impairment of visual acuity, colour vision, eye movement problems and complex visual disturbances.

A test of basic assumptions of Affective Events Theory (AET) in call centre work

Based on data from 2091 call centre representatives working in 85 call centres in the UK, central assumptions of affective events theory (AET) are tested. AET predicts that specific features of work (e.g. autonomy) have an impact on the arousal of emotions and moods at work that, in turn, co-determine job satisfaction of employees. AET further proposes that job satisfaction is an evaluative judgement that mainly explains cognitive-based behaviour, whereas emotions and moods better predict affective-based behaviour. The results support these assumptions. A clear separation of key constructs (job satisfaction, positive and negative emotions) was possible. Moreover, correlations between several work features (e.g. supervisory support) and job satisfaction were, in part, mediated by work emotions, even when controlling for gender, age, call centre type (in-house versus outsourced centres) and call centre size. Predictions regarding consequences of satisfaction and affect were partly corroborated as continuance commitment was more strongly related to job satisfaction than to positive emotions. In addition, affective commitment and health complaints were related to both emotions and job satisfaction to the same extent. Thus, AET is a fruitful framework for explaining why and how specific management strategies used for designing work features influence important organizational attitudes and well-being of employees. © 2006 British Academy of Management.