Improving climate change detection through optimal seasonal averaging: the case of the North Atlantic jet and European precipitation

The detection of anthropogenic climate change can be improved by recognising the seasonality in the climate change response. This is demonstrated for the North Atlantic jet (zonal wind at 850 hPa, U850) and European precipitation responses projected by the CMIP5 climate models. The U850 future response is characterised by a marked seasonality: an eastward extension of the North Atlantic jet into Europe in November-April, and a poleward shift in May-October. Under the RCP8.5 scenario, the multi-model mean response in U850 in these two extended seasonal means emerges by 2035-2040 for the lower--latitude features and by 2050-2070 for the higher--latitude features, relative to the 1960-1990 climate. This is 5-15 years earlier than when evaluated in the traditional meteorological seasons (December--February, June--August), and it results from an increase in the signal to noise ratio associated with the spatial coherence of the response within the extended seasons. The annual mean response lacks important information on the seasonality of the response without improving the signal to noise ratio. The same two extended seasons are demonstrated to capture the seasonality of the European precipitation response to climate change and to anticipate its emergence by 10-20 years. Furthermore, some of the regional responses, such as the Mediterranean precipitation decline and the U850 response in North Africa in the extended winter, are projected to emerge by 2020-2025, according to the models with a strong response. Therefore, observations might soon be useful to test aspects of the atmospheric circulation response predicted by some of the CMIP5 models.

On the speed of the eddy-driven jet and the width of the Hadley cell in the Southern Hemisphere

A strong correlation between the speed of the eddy-driven jet and the width of the Hadley cell is found to exist in the Southern Hemisphere, both in reanalysis data and in twenty-first-century integrations from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fifth Assessment Report multimodel archive. Analysis of the space–time spectra of eddy momentum flux reveals that variations in eddy-driven jet speed are related to changes in the mean phase speed of midlatitude eddies. An increase in eddy phase speeds induces a poleward shift of the critical latitudes and a poleward expansion of the region of subtropical wave breaking. The associated changes in eddy momentum flux convergence are balanced by anomalous meridional winds consistent with a wider Hadley cell. At the same time, faster eddies are also associated with a strengthened poleward eddy momentum flux, sustaining a stronger westerly jet in midlatitudes. The proposed mechanism is consistent with the seasonal dependence of the interannual variability of the Hadley cell width and appears to explain at least part of the projected twenty-first-century trends.

The relationship between the ITCZ and the Southern Hemispheric eddy-driven jet

We study the effect of a thermal forcing confined to the midlatitudes of one hemisphere on the eddy-driven jet in the opposite hemisphere. We demonstrate the existence of an “interhemispheric teleconnection,” whereby warming (cooling) the Northern Hemisphere causes both the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) and the Southern Hemispheric midlatitude jet to shift northward (southward). The interhemispheric teleconnection is effected by a change in the asymmetry of the Hadley cells: as the ITCZ shifts away from the Equator, the cross-equatorial Hadley cell intensifies, fluxing more momentum toward the subtropics and sustaining a stronger subtropical jet. Changes in subtropical jet strength, in turn, alter the propagation of extratropical waves into the tropics, affecting eddy momentum fluxes and the eddy-driven westerlies. The relevance of this mechanism is demonstrated in the context of future climate change simulations, where shifts of the ITCZ are significantly related to shifts of the Southern Hemispheric eddy-driven jet in austral winter. The possible relevance of the proposed mechanism to paleoclimates is discussed, particularly with regard to theories of ice age terminations.

Southern Hemisphere jet latitude biases in CMIP5 models linked to shortwave cloud forcing

Substantial biases in shortwave cloud forcing (SWCF) of up to ±30 W m−2are found in the midlatitudes of the Southern Hemisphere in the historical simulations of 34 CMIP5 coupled general circulation models. The SWCF biases are shown to induce surface temperature anomalies localized in the midlatitudes, and are significantly correlated with the mean latitude of the eddy-driven jet, with a negative SWCF bias corresponding to an equatorward jet latitude bias. Aquaplanet model experiments are performed to demonstrate that the jet latitude biases are primarily induced by the midlatitude SWCF anomalies, such that the jet moves toward (away from) regions of enhanced (reduced) temperature gradients. The results underline the necessity of accurately representing cloud radiative forcings in state-of-the-art coupled models.

Trends in the CERES dataset, 2000–13: the effects of sea ice and jet shifts and comparison to climate models

We review the effects of dynamical variability on clouds and radiation in observations and models and discuss their implications for cloud feedbacks. Jet shifts produce robust meridional dipoles in upper-level clouds and longwave cloud-radiative effect (CRE), but low-level clouds, which do not simply shift with the jet, dominate the shortwave CRE. Because the effect of jet variability on CRE is relatively small, future poleward jet shifts with global warming are only a second-order contribution to the total CRE changes around the midlatitudes, suggesting a dominant role for thermodynamic effects. This implies that constraining the dynamical response is unlikely to reduce the uncertainty in extratropical cloud feedback. However, we argue that uncertainty in the cloud-radiative response does affect the atmospheric circulation response to global warming, by modulating patterns of diabatic forcing. How cloud feedbacks can affect the dynamical response to global warming is an important topic of future research.

The response of the Southern Hemispheric eddy-driven jet to future changes in shortwave radiation in CMIP5

A strong relationship is found between changes in the meridional gradient of absorbed shortwave radiation (ASR) and Southern Hemispheric jet shifts in 21st century climate simulations of CMIP5 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5) coupled models. The relationship is such that models with increases in the meridional ASR gradient around the southern midlatitudes, and therefore increases in midlatitude baroclinicity, tend to produce a larger poleward jet shift. The ASR changes are shown to be dominated by changes in cloud properties, with sea ice declines playing a secondary role. We demonstrate that the ASR changes are the cause, and not the result, of the intermodel differences in jet response by comparing coupled simulations with experiments in which sea surface temperature increases are prescribed. Our results highlight the importance of reducing the uncertainty in cloud feedbacks in order to constrain future circulation changes.

The role of evaporating showers in the transfer of sting-jet momentum to the surface

The most damaging winds in a severe extratropical cyclone often occur just ahead of the evaporating ends of cloud filaments emanating from the so-called cloud head. These winds are associated with low-level jets (LLJs), sometimes occurring just above the boundary layer. The question then arises as to how the high momentum is transferred to the surface. An opportunity to address this question arose when the severe ‘St Jude's Day’ windstorm travelled across southern England on 28 October 2013. We have carried out a mesoanalysis of a network of 1 min resolution automatic weather stations and high-resolution Doppler radar scans from the sensitive S-band Chilbolton Advanced Meteorological Radar (CAMRa), along with satellite and radar network imagery and numerical weather prediction products. We show that, although the damaging winds occurred in a relatively dry region of the cyclone, there was evidence within the LLJ of abundant precipitation residues from shallow convective clouds that were evaporating in a localized region of descent. We find that pockets of high momentum were transported towards the surface by the few remaining actively precipitating convective clouds within the LLJ and also by precipitation-free convection in the boundary layer that was able to entrain evaporatively cooled air from the LLJ. The boundary-layer convection was organized in along-wind rolls separated by 500 to about 3000 m, the spacing varying according to the vertical extent of the convection. The spacing was greatest where the strongest winds penetrated to the surface. A run with a medium-resolution version of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model was able to reproduce the properties of the observed LLJ. It confirmed the LLJ to be a sting jet, which descended over the leading edge of a weaker cold-conveyor-belt jet.

Climatic simulations of the eastern Andes low-level jet and its dependency on convective parameterizations

The South American low level jet (SALLJ) of the Eastern Andes is investigated with Regional Climate Model version 3 (RegCM3) simulations during the 2002-2003 austral summer using two convective parameterizations (Grell and Emanuel). The simulated SALLJ is compared with the special observations of SALLJEX (SALLJ Experiment). Both the Grell and Emanuel schemes adequately simulate the low level flow over South America. However, there are some intensity differences. Due to the larger (smaller) convective activity, the Emanuel (Grell) scheme simulates more intense (weaker) low level wind than analysis in the tropics and subtropics. The objectives criteria of Sugahara (SJ) and Bonner (BJ) were used for LLJ identification. When applied to the observations, both criteria suggest a larger frequency of the SALLJ in Santa Cruz, followed by Mariscal, Trinidad and Asuncin. In Mariscal and Asuncin, the diurnal cycle indicates that SJ occurs mainly at 12 UTCs (morning), while the BJ criterion presents the SALLJ as more homogenously distributed. The concentration into two of the four-times-a-day observations does not allow conclusions about the diurnal cycle in Santa Cruz and Trinidad. The simulated wind profiles result in a lower than observed frequency of SALLJ using both the SJ and BJ criteria, with fewer events obtained with the BJ. Due to the stronger simulated winds, the Emanuel scheme produces an equal or greater relative frequency of SALLJ than the Grell scheme. However, the Grell scheme using the SJ criterion simulates the SALLJ diurnal cycle closer to the observed one. Although some discrepancies between observed and simulated mean vertical profiles of the horizontal wind are noted, there is large agreement between the composites of the vertical structure of the SALLJ, especially when the SJ criterion is used with the Grell scheme. On an intraseasonal scale, a larger southward displacement of SALLJ in February and December when compared with January has been noted. The Grell and Emanuel schemes simulated this observed oscillation in the low-level flow. However, the spatial pattern and intensity of rainfall and circulation anomalies simulated by the Grell scheme are closer to the analyses than those obtained with the Emanuel scheme.

Ink-Jet Printing of Color Optical Filters for LCD Applications

At the age of multi-media, portable electronic devices such as mobile phones, personal digital assistant and handheld gaming systems have increased the demand for high performance displays with low cost production. Inkjet printing color optical filters (COF) for LCD applications seem to be an interesting alternative to decrease the production costs. The advantage of inkjet printing technology is to be fast, accurate, easy to run and cheaper than other technologies. In this master thesis work, we used various disciplines such as optical microscopy, rheology, inkjet printing, profilometering and colorimetry. The specific aim of the thesis was to investigate the feasibility of using company-A pigment formulation in inkjet production of COF for active matrix LCD applications. Ideal viscosity parameters were determined from 10 to 20mPa·s for easy inkjet printing at room temperature. The red pigments used are fully dispersed into the solvent and present an excellent homogenous repartition after printing. Thickness investigations revealed that the printed COF were equal or slightly thicker than typically manufactured ones. The colorimetry investigations demonstrated color coordinates very close to the NTSC red standard. LED backlighting seems to be a valuable solution to combine with the printed COF regarding to the spectrum and color analysis. The results on this thesis will increase the understanding of inkjet printing company-A pigments to produce COF for LCD applications.

Numerical simulation of drop impact and jet buckling problems using the eXtended Pom-Pom model

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

An investigation on parallel, divergent and convergent acetylene dual jet diffusion flames

Results are presented and discussed of an experimental investigation on acetylene turbulent dual jet diffusion flames. The study includes parameters of flames in parallel, divergent and convergent configurations. Tests with two parallel jets with addition of helium in the fuel stream were also performed and analysed. The variation of overall flame length and of other name physical characteristics, such as width, volume and conditions for lifting, are presented as functions of burner tip Reynolds number, jet distance from each other and inclination angle. The effects of diluent concentration in the fuel gas stream are presented for single and two parallel jets. (C) 1999 Elsevier B.V. Ltd.

Search for a heavy resonance decaying into a Z plus jet final state in p(p)over-bar collisions at root s=1.96 TeV using the D0 detector

We have searched for a heavy resonance decaying into a Z+jet final state in p (p) over bar collisions at a center of mass energy of 1.96 TeV at the Fermilab Tevatron collider using the D0 detector. No indication for such a resonance was found in a data sample corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 370 pb(-1). We set upper limits on the cross section times branching fraction for heavy resonance production at the 95% C.L. as a function of the resonance mass and width. The limits are interpreted within the framework of a specific model of excited quark production.

Search for the pair production of scalar top quarks in the acoplanar charm jet final state in p(p)over-bar collisions at root s=1.96 TeV

A search for the pair production of scalar top quarks, (t) over tilde, has been performed in 360 pb(-1) of data from pp collisions at a center-of-mass energy of 1.96 TeV, collected by the D phi detector at the Fermilab Tevatron collider. The (t) over tilde decay mode considered is (t) over tilde -> c (chi) over tilde (0)(1), where (chi) over tilde (0)(1) is the lightest supersymmetric particle. The topology analyzed therefore consists of a pair of acoplanar heavy-flavor jets with missing transverse energy. The data and standard model expectation are in agreement, anda 95% C.L. exclusion domain in the (m((t) over tilde), m((chi) over tilde1)(0)) plane has been determined, extending the domain excluded by previous experiments. (c) 2006 Elsevier B.V All rights reserved.

Measurement of the ratio of inclusive cross sections sigma(p(p)over-bar -> Z plus b jet)/sigma(p(p)over-bar -> Z plus jet) at root s=1.96 TeV

Using the data collected with the D0 detector at root s=1.96 TeV, for integrated luminosities of about 180 pb(-1), we have measured the ratio of inclusive cross sections for p(p) over bar -> Z+b jet to p(p) over bar -> Z+jet production. The inclusive Z+b-jet reaction is an important background to searches for the Higgs boson in associated ZH production at the Fermilab Tevatron collider. Our measurement is the first of its kind, and relies on the Z -> e(+)e(-) and Z ->mu(+)mu(-) modes. The combined measurement of the ratio yields 0.021 +/- 0.005 for hadronic jets with transverse momenta p(T)> 20 GeV/c and pseudorapidities vertical bar eta vertical bar < 2.5, consistent with next-to-leading-order predictions of the standard model.