Estratégia de Investimento baseada em padrões descobertos por mineração de dados em séries históricas de preços diários do Indice IBOVESPA e das ações da PETROBRAS-PN (PETR4.SA)

With the increase of stakeholders and consequently increase of amount of nancial transaction the study of news investment strategies in the stock market with data mining techniques has been the target of important researches. It allows that great historical data base to be processed and analysed looking for pattern that can be used to take a decision in investments. With the idea of getting pro t more than the real indexs' gain, we propose a strategy method of transactions using rules built by algorithm classi cation. For that, diary historical data of Ibovespa index and Petrobras stocks are organized and processed to nding the most important attribute that act decisively when taking a investment decision.To test the accuracy of proposed rules, a non real portfolio management is created, showing the decisions' performance over the real index and stocks' performance. Following the proposed rules, the results show that the strategy of investment give me back a high return that Stock market's return. The exclusive characteristics of algorithms maximize the gain inside the analysed time allowing to determine the techniques' return and the number of the days necessary to double the initial investment. The best classi er applied on the time series and its use on the propose investments strategy will demand 104 days to double the initial capital

Microstructural, physical, and fluid dynamic assessment of spinel-based and phosphate-bonded investments for dental applications

This work reports the experimental evaluation of physical and gas permeation parameters of four spinel-based investments developed with or without inclusion of sacrificial fillers. Data were compared with those of three commercial formulations. Airflow tests were conducted from 27 to 546°C, and permeability coefficients were fitted from Forchheimer's equation. Skeletal densities found for spinel- (ρs = 3635 ± 165 kg/m3) and phosphate-bonded (ρs = 2686 ± 11 kg/m3) samples were in agreement with the literature. The developed investments were more porous and less permeable than commercial brands, and the differences were ascribed to the different pore morphologies and hydraulic pore sizes of ceramic matrices. The inclusion of both fibers and microbeads resulted in increases of total porosity (42.6–56.6%) and of Darcian permeability coefficient k1 (0.76 × 10−14–7.03 × 10−14 m2). Air permeation was hindered by increasing flow temperatures, and the effect was related to the influence of gas viscosity on ΔP, in accordance with Darcy's law. Casting quality with molten titanium (CP Ti) was directly proportional to the permeability level of the spinel-based investments. However, the high reactivity of the silica-based investment RP and the formation of α-case during casting hindered the benefits of the highest permeability level of this commercial brand.

Decision making in the product portfolio: methods adopted by Brazil?s innovative companies

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Evaluation Method for Strategic Investments

Real Options Analysis (ROA) has become a complimentary tool for engineering economics. It has become popular due to the limitations of conventional engineering valuation methods; specifically, the assumptions of uncertainty. Industry is seeking to quantify the value of engineering investments with uncertainty. One problem with conventional tools are that they may assume that cash flows are certain, therefore minimizing the possibility of the uncertainty of future values. Real options analysis provides a solution to this problem, but has been used sparingly by practitioners. This paper seeks to provide a new model, referred to as the Beta Distribution Real Options Pricing Model (BDROP), which addresses these limitations and can be easily used by practitioners. The positive attributes of this new model include unconstrained market assumptions, robust representation of the underlying asset‟s uncertainty, and an uncomplicated methodology. This research demonstrates the use of the model to evaluate the use of automation for inventory control.

Portfolio: Objective structured examination for the assessment of essential competences at graduation

[EN] This porfolio is an Objective Structured Competence Examination (OSCE) designed for the Assessment of essentian competences defined by The European Asociation of Establishments for Veterinay Education (EAEVE) in its programme Evaluation of Veterinary Training in Europe

Learning for scheduling a portfolio of constraint solvers

Nel lavoro di tesi qui presentato si indaga l'applicazione di tecniche di apprendimento mirate ad una più efficiente esecuzione di un portfolio di risolutore di vincoli (constraint solver). Un constraint solver è un programma che dato in input un problema di vincoli, elabora una soluzione mediante l'utilizzo di svariate tecniche. I problemi di vincoli sono altamente presenti nella vita reale. Esempi come l'organizzazione dei viaggi dei treni oppure la programmazione degli equipaggi di una compagnia aerea, sono tutti problemi di vincoli. Un problema di vincoli è formalizzato da un problema di soddisfacimento di vincoli(CSP). Un CSP è descritto da un insieme di variabili che possono assumere valori appartenenti ad uno specico dominio ed un insieme di vincoli che mettono in relazione variabili e valori assumibili da esse. Una tecnica per ottimizzare la risoluzione di tali problemi è quella suggerita da un approccio a portfolio. Tale tecnica, usata anche in am- biti come quelli economici, prevede la combinazione di più solver i quali assieme possono generare risultati migliori di un approccio a singolo solver. In questo lavoro ci preoccupiamo di creare una nuova tecnica che combina un portfolio di constraint solver con tecniche di machine learning. Il machine learning è un campo di intelligenza articiale che si pone l'obiettivo di immettere nelle macchine una sorta di `intelligenza'. Un esempio applicativo potrebbe essere quello di valutare i casi passati di un problema ed usarli in futuro per fare scelte. Tale processo è riscontrato anche a livello cognitivo umano. Nello specico, vogliamo ragionare in termini di classicazione. Una classicazione corrisponde ad assegnare ad un insieme di caratteristiche in input, un valore discreto in output, come vero o falso se una mail è classicata come spam o meno. La fase di apprendimento sarà svolta utilizzando una parte di CPHydra, un portfolio di constraint solver sviluppato presso la University College of Cork (UCC). Di tale algoritmo a portfolio verranno utilizzate solamente le caratteristiche usate per descrivere determinati aspetti di un CSP rispetto ad un altro; queste caratteristiche vengono altresì dette features. Creeremo quindi una serie di classicatori basati sullo specifico comportamento dei solver. La combinazione di tali classicatori con l'approccio a portfolio sara nalizzata allo scopo di valutare che le feature di CPHydra siano buone e che i classicatori basati su tali feature siano affidabili. Per giusticare il primo risultato, eettueremo un confronto con uno dei migliori portfolio allo stato dell'arte, SATzilla. Una volta stabilita la bontà delle features utilizzate per le classicazioni, andremo a risolvere i problemi simulando uno scheduler. Tali simulazioni testeranno diverse regole costruite con classicatori precedentemente introdotti. Prima agiremo su uno scenario ad un processore e successivamente ci espanderemo ad uno scenario multi processore. In questi esperimenti andremo a vericare che, le prestazioni ottenute tramite l'applicazione delle regole create appositamente sui classicatori, abbiano risultati migliori rispetto ad un'esecuzione limitata all'utilizzo del migliore solver del portfolio. I lavoro di tesi è stato svolto in collaborazione con il centro di ricerca 4C presso University College Cork. Su questo lavoro è stato elaborato e sottomesso un articolo scientico alla International Joint Conference of Articial Intelligence (IJCAI) 2011. Al momento della consegna della tesi non siamo ancora stati informati dell'accettazione di tale articolo. Comunque, le risposte dei revisori hanno indicato che tale metodo presentato risulta interessante.

Portfolio Approaches in Constraint Programming

Recent research has shown that the performance of a single, arbitrarily efficient algorithm can be significantly outperformed by using a portfolio of —possibly on-average slower— algorithms. Within the Constraint Programming (CP) context, a portfolio solver can be seen as a particular constraint solver that exploits the synergy between the constituent solvers of its portfolio for predicting which is (or which are) the best solver(s) to run for solving a new, unseen instance. In this thesis we examine the benefits of portfolio solvers in CP. Despite portfolio approaches have been extensively studied for Boolean Satisfiability (SAT) problems, in the more general CP field these techniques have been only marginally studied and used. We conducted this work through the investigation, the analysis and the construction of several portfolio approaches for solving both satisfaction and optimization problems. We focused in particular on sequential approaches, i.e., single-threaded portfolio solvers always running on the same core. We started from a first empirical evaluation on portfolio approaches for solving Constraint Satisfaction Problems (CSPs), and then we improved on it by introducing new data, solvers, features, algorithms, and tools. Afterwards, we addressed the more general Constraint Optimization Problems (COPs) by implementing and testing a number of models for dealing with COP portfolio solvers. Finally, we have come full circle by developing sunny-cp: a sequential CP portfolio solver that turned out to be competitive also in the MiniZinc Challenge, the reference competition for CP solvers.

Das strukturierte Portfolio zur Dokumentation des orientierenden Praktikums für Lehramtsstudierende

Die Kompetenzorientierung der Lehrerbildung bezieht sich nicht nur auf die universitären Ausbildungsabschnitte des Lehramtsstudiums, sondern auch auf die praktischen Phasen. Daher ist es von Interesse, diese praktischen Phasen genauer zu untersuchen. Bisherige Forschungsarbeiten konzentrierten sich dabei vor allem auf die Kompetenzentwicklung (Bach, 2013; Gröschner & Schmitt, 2012; Schubarth et al., 2012) und auf die Betreuung im Schulpraktikum (Bach, 2013; Hascher, 2012; Schubarth et al., 2011). Die Untersuchung dieser Arbeit stellt die Praktikumsdokumentation in den Fokus, da diese ebenfalls zur Kompetenzförderung im Schulpraktikum beitragen kann. Dazu werden zwei Formen von Praktikumsdokumentationen gegenübergestellt. Dies sind einerseits die Praktikumsaufgaben, die als offene Reflexionsaufgaben formuliert werden und andererseits ein strukturiertes Arbeitsheft mit dem Ziel, die Beobachtungskompetenz der Studierenden anzuleiten und die Dokumentation der Beobachtungen zu strukturieren. Diese beiden Formen der Praktikumsdokumentation werden hinsichtlich der Akzeptanz, der Entwicklung der Kompetenzen, der Selbstwirksamkeitserwartung und des pädagogisch-psychologischen Wissens miteinander verglichen. Die Angaben von n = 66 Studierenden, die das Arbeitsheft im Orientierenden Praktikum nutzten, wurden in einem prä-post-follow-up-Design untersucht und zwei Referenzgruppen gegenübergestellt. Die erste Referenzgruppe (n = 64) hatte das Orientierende Schulpraktikum noch nicht absolviert. Die zweite Referenzgruppe (n = 105) hatte dieses beendet und mit den Praktikumsaufgaben gearbeitet. Mit Hilfe von Online-Fragebögen wurden Daten zu Rahmenbedingungen des Schulpraktikums, die selbsteingeschätzte Kompetenz der Studierenden, die Relevanz und Anwendungshäufigkeit der Kompetenzen (adaptierte Skala nach Gröschner, 2009), die allgemeine Selbstwirksamkeitserwartung (Jerusalem & Schwarzer, 1999), das pädagogisch-psychologische Wissen sowie die Akzeptanz erfasst. Die Ergebnisse zeigen keine Unterschiede in der Kompetenz- und Relevanzeinschätzung sowie bei der Selbstwirksamkeitserwartung und dem Wissen zwischen den Gruppen. Signifikant besser schätzten die Studierenden mit dem Arbeitsheft die Anwendungshäufigkeit der Kompetenzen und die Akzeptanz der Praktikumsdokumentation ein. Das neu entwickelte Arbeitsheft und die Praktikumsaufgaben fördern die Kompetenzentwicklung wahrscheinlich in vergleichbarem Maß. Die Studierenden akzeptieren das Arbeitsheft jedoch mehr, was eine wichtige Implementationsbedingung ist. Das Design der Studie sowie die Selbstselektion der Gruppen schränken die Aussagekraft der Studie ein. Zu betonen ist jedoch, dass im Rahmen dieser Studie erstmalig versucht wurde, eine längsschnittliche Interventionsstudie mit Praktikumsdokumentationen umzusetzen sowie die Gelingensbedingungen von Schulpraktika und Kompetenzentwicklung im Lehramtsstudium zu untersuchen.

Running Hot and Cold: Economic Liberalization and Foreign Direct Investment in Latin America by Sector

This article examines the effects of market–oriented economic reforms on foreign direct investment (FDI) flows to Latin America from 1985 to 2006. In contrast with most existing scholarship, we disaggregate FDI into its destination in the primary resource, manufacturing, and service sectors allowing us to determine that different kinds of investments exhibit distinct behavior. Notably, manufacturing FDI appears to be erratic; previous investment is not a predictor of current investment. FDI across sectors is associated with varying policy environments, with service and primary resource investment attracted to hosts with policies associated with more stable economic and political contexts. Overall, manufacturing FDI appears to function more like “hot” portfolio investment and is less likely to provide some of the positive spillover effects thought to be associated with more permanent FDI. These findings have an array of implications for economic, development, and industrial policies throughout Latin America and the developing world.