Variations inter journalières dans la structure des communautés de poissons : implications pour le développement de modèles de qualité d'habitats

Mémoire numérisé par la Division de la gestion de documents et des archives de l'Université de Montréal

Impact d’une sieste sur plasticité cérébrale induite par stimulation magnétique transcrânienne

Chez l’humain, différents protocoles de stimulation magnétique transcrânienne répétée (SMTr) peuvent être utilisés afin de manipuler expérimentalement la plasticité cérébrale au niveau du cortex moteur primaire (M1). Ces techniques ont permis de mieux comprendre le rôle du sommeil dans la régulation de la plasticité cérébrale. Récemment, une étude a montré que lorsqu’une première session de stimulation SMTr au niveau de M1 est suivie d’une nuit de sommeil, l’induction subséquente de la plasticité par une deuxième session SMTr est augmentée. La présente étude a investigué si ce type de métaplasticité pouvait également bénéficier d’une sieste diurne. Quatorze sujets en santé ont reçu deux sessions de intermittent theta burst stimulation (iTBS) connue pour son effet facilitateur sur l’excitabilité corticale. Les sessions de stimulation étaient séparées par une sieste de 90 minutes ou par une période équivalente d’éveil. L’excitabilité corticale était quantifiée en terme d’amplitude des potentiels évoqués moteurs (PEM) mesurés avant et après chaque session de iTBS. Les résultats montrent que la iTBS n’est pas parvenue à augmenter de manière robuste l’amplitude des PEMs lors de la première session de stimulation. Lors de la deuxième session de stimulation, la iTBS a produit des changements plastiques variables et ce peu importe si les sujets ont dormi ou pas. Les effets de la iTBS sur l’excitabilité corticale étaient marqués par une importante variabilité inter et intra-individuelle dont les possibles causes sont discutées.

Thermohaline variability in the upper layers of the Arabian Sea

The Arabian Sea is an area of complex air-sea interaction processes with seasonal reversing monsoons. The associated thermohaline variability in the upper layers appears to control the large scale monsoon flow which is not yet completely understood. The variability in the thermohaline fields is known to occur in temporal domain ranging from intra-diurnal to inter-annual time scales and on spatial domains of few tens of kilometers to few thousands of kilometers. In the Arabian Sea though the surface temperature was routinely measured by both conventional measurements and satellites, the corresponding information on the subsurface thermohaline field is very sparse due to the lack cw adequate measurements. In such cases the numerical models offer promise in providing information on the subsurface features given an initial thermohaline field and surface heat flux boundary conditions. This thesis is an outcome of investigations carried out on the various aspects of the thermohaline variability on different time scales. In addition to the description of the mean annual cycle. the one dimensional numerical models of Miller (1976) and Price et a1 (1986) are utilised to simulate the observed mixed layer characteristics at selected locations in the Arabian Sea on time scales ranging from intra-diurnal to synoptic scales under variable atmospheric forcing.

Wind-tunnel modelling of dispersion from a scalar area source in urban-like roughness

A wind-tunnel study was conducted to investigate ventilation of scalars from urban-like geometries at neighbourhood scale by exploring two different geometries a uniform height roughness and a non-uniform height roughness, both with an equal plan and frontal density of λ p = λ f = 25%. In both configurations a sub-unit of the idealized urban surface was coated with a thin layer of naphthalene to represent area sources. The naphthalene sublimation method was used to measure directly total area-averaged transport of scalars out of the complex geometries. At the same time, naphthalene vapour concentrations controlled by the turbulent fluxes were detected using a fast Flame Ionisation Detection (FID) technique. This paper describes the novel use of a naphthalene coated surface as an area source in dispersion studies. Particular emphasis was also given to testing whether the concentration measurements were independent of Reynolds number. For low wind speeds, transfer from the naphthalene surface is determined by a combination of forced and natural convection. Compared with a propane point source release, a 25% higher free stream velocity was needed for the naphthalene area source to yield Reynolds-number-independent concentration fields. Ventilation transfer coefficients w T /U derived from the naphthalene sublimation method showed that, whilst there was enhanced vertical momentum exchange due to obstacle height variability, advection was reduced and dispersion from the source area was not enhanced. Thus, the height variability of a canopy is an important parameter when generalising urban dispersion. Fine resolution concentration measurements in the canopy showed the effect of height variability on dispersion at street scale. Rapid vertical transport in the wake of individual high-rise obstacles was found to generate elevated point-like sources. A Gaussian plume model was used to analyse differences in the downstream plumes. Intensified lateral and vertical plume spread and plume dilution with height was found for the non-uniform height roughness

Modelling European winter wind storm losses in current and future climate

Severe wind storms are one of the major natural hazards in the extratropics and inflict substantial economic damages and even casualties. Insured storm-related losses depend on (i) the frequency, nature and dynamics of storms, (ii) the vulnerability of the values at risk, (iii) the geographical distribution of these values, and (iv) the particular conditions of the risk transfer. It is thus of great importance to assess the impact of climate change on future storm losses. To this end, the current study employs—to our knowledge for the first time—a coupled approach, using output from high-resolution regional climate model scenarios for the European sector to drive an operational insurance loss model. An ensemble of coupled climate-damage scenarios is used to provide an estimate of the inherent uncertainties. Output of two state-of-the-art global climate models (HadAM3, ECHAM5) is used for present (1961–1990) and future climates (2071–2100, SRES A2 scenario). These serve as boundary data for two nested regional climate models with a sophisticated gust parametrizations (CLM, CHRM). For validation and calibration purposes, an additional simulation is undertaken with the CHRM driven by the ERA40 reanalysis. The operational insurance model (Swiss Re) uses a European-wide damage function, an average vulnerability curve for all risk types, and contains the actual value distribution of a complete European market portfolio. The coupling between climate and damage models is based on daily maxima of 10 m gust winds, and the strategy adopted consists of three main steps: (i) development and application of a pragmatic selection criterion to retrieve significant storm events, (ii) generation of a probabilistic event set using a Monte-Carlo approach in the hazard module of the insurance model, and (iii) calibration of the simulated annual expected losses with a historic loss data base. The climate models considered agree regarding an increase in the intensity of extreme storms in a band across central Europe (stretching from southern UK and northern France to Denmark, northern Germany into eastern Europe). This effect increases with event strength, and rare storms show the largest climate change sensitivity, but are also beset with the largest uncertainties. Wind gusts decrease over northern Scandinavia and Southern Europe. Highest intra-ensemble variability is simulated for Ireland, the UK, the Mediterranean, and parts of Eastern Europe. The resulting changes on European-wide losses over the 110-year period are positive for all layers and all model runs considered and amount to 44% (annual expected loss), 23% (10 years loss), 50% (30 years loss), and 104% (100 years loss). There is a disproportionate increase in losses for rare high-impact events. The changes result from increases in both severity and frequency of wind gusts. Considerable geographical variability of the expected losses exists, with Denmark and Germany experiencing the largest loss increases (116% and 114%, respectively). All countries considered except for Ireland (−22%) experience some loss increases. Some ramifications of these results for the socio-economic sector are discussed, and future avenues for research are highlighted. The technique introduced in this study and its application to realistic market portfolios offer exciting prospects for future research on the impact of climate change that is relevant for policy makers, scientists and economists.

Monitoring and modelling the three-dimensional flow of water under drip irrigation

The interpretation of soil water dynamics under drip irrigation systems is relevant for crop production as well as on water use and management. In this study a three-dimensional representation of the flow of water under drip irrigation is presented. The work includes analysis of the water balance at point scale as well as area-average, exploring uncertainties in water balance estimations depending on the number of locations sampled. The water flow was monitored by detailed profile water content measurements before irrigation, after irrigation and 24 h later with a dense array of soil moisture access tubes radially distributed around selected drippers. The objective was to develop a methodology that could be used on selected occasions to obtain 'snap shots' of the detailed three-dimensional patterns of soil moisture. Such patterns are likely to be very complex, as spatial variability will be induced for a number of reasons, such as strong horizontal gradients in soil moisture, variations between individual sources in the amount of water applied and spatial variability is soil hydraulic properties. Results are compared with a widely used numerical model, Hydrus-2D. The observed dynamic of the water content distribution is in good agreement with model simulations, although some discrepancies concerning the horizontal distribution of the irrigation bulb are noted due to soil heterogeneity. (c) 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Human exposure modelling for chemical risk assessment: a review of current approaches and research and policy implications

A wide variety of exposure models are currently employed for health risk assessments. Individual models have been developed to meet the chemical exposure assessment needs of Government, industry and academia. These existing exposure models can be broadly categorised according to the following types of exposure source: environmental, dietary, consumer product, occupational, and aggregate and cumulative. Aggregate exposure models consider multiple exposure pathways, while cumulative models consider multiple chemicals. In this paper each of these basic types of exposure model are briefly described, along with any inherent strengths or weaknesses, with the UK as a case study. Examples are given of specific exposure models that are currently used, or that have the potential for future use, and key differences in modelling approaches adopted are discussed. The use of exposure models is currently fragmentary in nature. Specific organisations with exposure assessment responsibilities tend to use a limited range of models. The modelling techniques adopted in current exposure models have evolved along distinct lines for the various types of source. In fact different organisations may be using different models for very similar exposure assessment situations. This lack of consistency between exposure modelling practices can make understanding the exposure assessment process more complex, can lead to inconsistency between organisations in how critical modelling issues are addressed (e.g. variability and uncertainty), and has the potential to communicate mixed messages to the general public. Further work should be conducted to integrate the various approaches and models, where possible and regulatory remits allow, to get a coherent and consistent exposure modelling process. We recommend the development of an overall framework for exposure and risk assessment with common approaches and methodology, a screening tool for exposure assessment, collection of better input data, probabilistic modelling, validation of model input and output and a closer working relationship between scientists and policy makers and staff from different Government departments. A much increased effort is required is required in the UK to address these issues. The result will be a more robust, transparent, valid and more comparable exposure and risk assessment process. (C) 2006 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Fine sediment delivery and transfer in lowland catchments: modelling suspended sediment concentrations in response to hydrological forcing

Fine sediment delivery to and storage in stream channel reaches can disrupt aquatic habitats, impact river hydromorphology, and transfer adsorbed nutrients and pollutants from catchment slopes to the fluvial system. This paper presents a modelling toot for simulating the time-dependent response of the fine sediment system in catchments, using an integrated approach that incorporates both land phase and in-stream processes of sediment generation, storage and transfer. The performance of the model is demonstrated by applying it to simulate in-stream suspended sediment concentrations in two lowland catchments in southern England, the Enborne and the Lambourn, which exhibit contrasting hydrological and sediment responses due to differences in substrate permeability. The sediment model performs well in the Enborne catchment, where direct runoff events are frequent and peak suspended sediment concentrations can exceed 600 mg l(-1). The general trends in the in-stream concentrations in the Lambourn catchment are also reproduced by the model, although the observed concentrations are low (rarely exceeding 50 mg l(-1)) and the background variability in the concentrations is not fully characterized by the model. Direct runoff events are rare in this highly permeable catchment, resulting in a weak coupling between the sediment delivery system and the catchment hydrology. The generic performance of the model is also assessed using a generalized sensitivity analysis based on the parameter bounds identified in the catchment applications. Results indicate that the hydrological parameters contributing to the sediment response include those controlling (1) the partitioning of runoff between surface and soil zone flows and (2) the fractional loss of direct runoff volume prior to channel delivery. The principal sediment processes controlling model behaviour in the simulations are the transport capacity of direct runoff and the in-stream generation, storage and release of the fine sediment fraction. The in-stream processes appear to be important in maintaining the suspended sediment concentrations during low flows in the River Enborne and throughout much of the year in the River Lambourn. Copyright (c) 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Modelling monsoons: understanding and predicting current and future behaviour

The global monsoon system is so varied and complex that understanding and predicting its diverse behaviour remains a challenge that will occupy modellers for many years to come. Despite the difficult task ahead, an improved monsoon modelling capability has been realized through the inclusion of more detailed physics of the climate system and higher resolution in our numerical models. Perhaps the most crucial improvement to date has been the development of coupled ocean-atmosphere models. From subseasonal to interdecadal time scales, only through the inclusion of air-sea interaction can the proper phasing and teleconnections of convection be attained with respect to sea surface temperature variations. Even then, the response to slow variations in remote forcings (e.g., El Niño—Southern Oscillation) does not result in a robust solution, as there are a host of competing modes of variability that must be represented, including those that appear to be chaotic. Understanding the links between monsoons and land surface processes is not as mature as that explored regarding air-sea interactions. A land surface forcing signal appears to dominate the onset of wet season rainfall over the North American monsoon region, though the relative role of ocean versus land forcing remains a topic of investigation in all the monsoon systems. Also, improved forecasts have been made during periods in which additional sounding observations are available for data assimilation. Thus, there is untapped predictability that can only be attained through the development of a more comprehensive observing system for all monsoon regions. Additionally, improved parameterizations - for example, of convection, cloud, radiation, and boundary layer schemes as well as land surface processes - are essential to realize the full potential of monsoon predictability. A more comprehensive assessment is needed of the impact of black carbon aerosols, which may modulate that of other anthropogenic greenhouse gases. Dynamical considerations require ever increased horizontal resolution (probably to 0.5 degree or higher) in order to resolve many monsoon features including, but not limited to, the Mei-Yu/Baiu sudden onset and withdrawal, low-level jet orientation and variability, and orographic forced rainfall. Under anthropogenic climate change many competing factors complicate making robust projections of monsoon changes. Absent aerosol effects, increased land-sea temperature contrast suggests strengthened monsoon circulation due to climate change. However, increased aerosol emissions will reflect more solar radiation back to space, which may temper or even reduce the strength of monsoon circulations compared to the present day. Precipitation may behave independently from the circulation under warming conditions in which an increased atmospheric moisture loading, based purely on thermodynamic considerations, could result in increased monsoon rainfall under climate change. The challenge to improve model parameterizations and include more complex processes and feedbacks pushes computing resources to their limit, thus requiring continuous upgrades of computational infrastructure to ensure progress in understanding and predicting current and future behaviour of monsoons.

Evidence for long-term regional changes in precipitation on the East Coast Mountains in Mauritius

Global climate change and its impacts are being increasingly studied and precipitation trends are one of the measures of quantifying climate change especially in the tropics. This study uses daily rainfall data to determine if there are changes in the long-term trends in rainfall variability in the East Coast Mountains of Mauritius during the last few decades, and to investigate the factors influencing the trends in the inter-annual to inter-decadal rainfall variability. Statistical modelling has been used to investigate the trends in total seasonal rainfall, the number of rain days and the mean amount of rain per rainy days and the local, regional and large-scale factors that affect them on inter-annual to inter-decadal time scales. The strongest inter-decadal trend was found in the number of rain days for both rainfall seasons, and the other variables were found to have weak or insignificant trends. Both local factors, such as the surrounding sea surface temperatures and large-scale phenomena such as Indian Monsoon and the El Niño Southern Oscillation were found to influence rainfall patterns.

Modelling seasonally varying data: A case study for sudden infant death syndrome (SIDS)

Many time series are measured monthly, either as averages or totals, and such data often exhibit seasonal variability-the values of the series are consistently larger for some months of the year than for others. A typical series of this type is the number of deaths each month attributed to SIDS (Sudden Infant Death Syndrome). Seasonality can be modelled in a number of ways. This paper describes and discusses various methods for modelling seasonality in SIDS data, though much of the discussion is relevant to other seasonally varying data. There are two main approaches, either fitting a circular probability distribution to the data, or using regression-based techniques to model the mean seasonal behaviour. Both are discussed in this paper.

Uses of airborne scanning laser altimetry for river flood modelling and coastal geomorphology

Two ongoing projects at ESSC that involve the development of new techniques for extracting information from airborne LiDAR data and combining this information with environmental models will be discussed. The first project in conjunction with Bristol University is aiming to improve 2-D river flood flow models by using remote sensing to provide distributed data for model calibration and validation. Airborne LiDAR can provide such models with a dense and accurate floodplain topography together with vegetation heights for parameterisation of model friction. The vegetation height data can be used to specify a friction factor at each node of a model’s finite element mesh. A LiDAR range image segmenter has been developed which converts a LiDAR image into separate raster maps of surface topography and vegetation height for use in the model. Satellite and airborne SAR data have been used to measure flood extent remotely in order to validate the modelled flood extent. Methods have also been developed for improving the models by decomposing the model’s finite element mesh to reflect floodplain features such as hedges and trees having different frictional properties to their surroundings. Originally developed for rural floodplains, the segmenter is currently being extended to provide DEMs and friction parameter maps for urban floods, by fusing the LiDAR data with digital map data. The second project is concerned with the extraction of tidal channel networks from LiDAR. These networks are important features of the inter-tidal zone, and play a key role in tidal propagation and in the evolution of salt-marshes and tidal flats. The study of their morphology is currently an active area of research, and a number of theories related to networks have been developed which require validation using dense and extensive observations of network forms and cross-sections. The conventional method of measuring networks is cumbersome and subjective, involving manual digitisation of aerial photographs in conjunction with field measurement of channel depths and widths for selected parts of the network. A semi-automatic technique has been developed to extract networks from LiDAR data of the inter-tidal zone. A multi-level knowledge-based approach has been implemented, whereby low level algorithms first extract channel fragments based mainly on image properties then a high level processing stage improves the network using domain knowledge. The approach adopted at low level uses multi-scale edge detection to detect channel edges, then associates adjacent anti-parallel edges together to form channels. The higher level processing includes a channel repair mechanism.

In-street wind direction variability in the vicinity of a busy intersection in central London

We present results from fast-response wind measurements within and above a busy intersection between two street canyons (Marylebone Road and Gloucester Place) in Westminster, London taken as part of the DAPPLE (Dispersion of Air Pollution and Penetration into the Local Environment; www.dapple.org.uk) 2007 field campaign. The data reported here were collected using ultrasonic anemometers on the roof-top of a building adjacent to the intersection and at two heights on a pair of lamp-posts on opposite sides of the intersection. Site characteristics, data analysis and the variation of intersection flow with the above-roof wind direction (θref) are discussed. Evidence of both flow channelling and recirculation was identified within the canyon, only a few metres from the intersection for along-street and across-street roof-top winds respectively. Results also indicate that for oblique rooftop flows, the intersection flow is a complex combination of bifurcated channelled flows, recirculation and corner vortices. Asymmetries in local building geometry around the intersection and small changes in the background wind direction (changes in 15-min mean θref of 5–10 degrees) were also observed to have profound influences on the behaviour of intersection flow patterns. Consequently, short time-scale variability in the background flow direction can lead to highly scattered in-street mean flow angles masking the true multi-modal features of the flow and thus further complicating modelling challenges.

Decadal-scale rainfall variability in Ethiopia recorded in an annually laminated, Holocene-age, stalagmite

An annually laminated, uranium-series dated, Holocene stalagmite from southeast Ethiopia has been analysed for growth rate and δ13C and δ18O variations at annual to biennial resolution, in order to provide the first long duration proxy record of decadal-scale rainfall variability in this climatically sensitive region. Our study site (10°N) is climatically influenced by both summer (June—August) and spring (March—May) rainfall caused by the annual movement of the Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) and modulated by large-scale anomalies in the atmospheric circulation and in ocean temperatures. Here we show that stalagmite growth, episodic throughout the last 7800 years, demonstrates decadal-scale (8—25 yr) variability in both growth rate and δ 18O. A hydrological model was employed and indicates that this decadal variability is due to variations in the relative amounts of rainfall in the two rain seasons. Our record, unique in its combination of length (a total of ~1000 years), annual chronology and high resolution δ18O, shows for the first time that such decadal-scale variability in rainfall in this region has occurred through the Holocene, which implies persistent decadal-scale variability for the large-scale atmospheric and oceanic driving factors.