An Incremental EM-based Learning Approach for On-Line Prediction of Hospital Resource Utilization

Objective: Inpatient length of stay (LOS) is an important measure of hospital activity, health care resource consumption, and patient acuity. This research work aims at developing an incremental expectation maximization (EM) based learning approach on mixture of experts (ME) system for on-line prediction of LOS. The use of a batchmode learning process in most existing artificial neural networks to predict LOS is unrealistic, as the data become available over time and their pattern change dynamically. In contrast, an on-line process is capable of providing an output whenever a new datum becomes available. This on-the-spot information is therefore more useful and practical for making decisions, especially when one deals with a tremendous amount of data. Methods and material: The proposed approach is illustrated using a real example of gastroenteritis LOS data. The data set was extracted from a retrospective cohort study on all infants born in 1995-1997 and their subsequent admissions for gastroenteritis. The total number of admissions in this data set was n = 692. Linked hospitalization records of the cohort were retrieved retrospectively to derive the outcome measure, patient demographics, and associated co-morbidities information. A comparative study of the incremental learning and the batch-mode learning algorithms is considered. The performances of the learning algorithms are compared based on the mean absolute difference (MAD) between the predictions and the actual LOS, and the proportion of predictions with MAD < 1 day (Prop(MAD < 1)). The significance of the comparison is assessed through a regression analysis. Results: The incremental learning algorithm provides better on-line prediction of LOS when the system has gained sufficient training from more examples (MAD = 1.77 days and Prop(MAD < 1) = 54.3%), compared to that using the batch-mode learning. The regression analysis indicates a significant decrease of MAD (p-value = 0.063) and a significant (p-value = 0.044) increase of Prop(MAD

Conditional release: A less restrictive alternative to hospitalization?

Objective: This study examined conditional release - that is, involuntary outpatient commitment orders upon release from hospitalization - as a least restrictive alternative to psychiatric hospitalization in Victoria, Australia. Methods: Records were obtained from the Victorian Psychiatric Case Register for patients who experienced psychiatric hospitalization: between 1990 and 2000 a total of 8,879 patients were given conditional release and 16,094 were not. Results: Compared with the group that was hospitalized but did not receive a conditional release, the group that received a conditional release was more likely to have more prior hospitalizations of greater than average duration. Patients with schizophrenia were more likely to be given conditional release. Patients given conditional release experienced a care pattern involving briefer inpatient episodes (8.3 fewer days per episode), more inpatient days, and longer duration of restrictive care - that is, combined inpatient and conditional release periods (5.1 more days per month in care). Conclusions: For patients at risk of long-term hospitalization, conditional release may help to shorten inpatient episodes by providing a least restrictive alternative to continued hospitalization. However, patients who were given conditional release doubled the amount of days they spent under restrictive care, compared with the amount of time they previously spent in the hospital before entering a period of combined inpatient and conditional release commitment. Additional oversight may have led to more frequent hospitalization. This consequence raises new questions regarding the possible benefits of such extended oversight and new challenges for release planning using conditional release as a least restrictive method of care.

Effect of conditional release from hospitalization on mortality risk

Objectives: This study considered the protective value provided by conditional release. It assessed the contribution of conditional release to mortality risk among patients with mental disorders severe enough to require psychiatric hospitalization during a mental health treatment span of 13.5 years in Victoria, Australia. Methods: Death records were obtained from the Australian National Death Index for a sample of 24,973 Victorian Psychiatric Case Register patients with a history of psychiatric hospitalizations: 8,879 had experienced at least one conditional release during community care intervals and 16,094 had not. Risk of death was assessed with standardized mortality ratios of the general population of Victoria. Relative risk of death among patients with and without past experience of conditional release was computed with risk and odds ratios. The contribution of conditional release to mortality, taking into account use of community care services, age, gender, inpatient experience, and diagnosis, as well as other controls, was assessed with logistic regression. Results: Patients who had been hospitalized showed higher mortality risk than the general population. Sixteen percent ( 4,034) died. Patients exposed to conditional release, however, had a 14 percent reduction in probability of noninjury-related death and a 24 percent reduction per day on orders in the probability of death from injury compared with those not offered such oversight throughout their mental health treatment, all other factors taken into account. Conclusions: Conditional release can offer protective oversight for those considered dangerous to self or others and appears to reduce mortality risk among those with disorders severe enough to require psychiatric hospitalization.

Factors in the selection of patients for conditional release from their first psychiatric hospitalization

Objective: This study examined a sample of patients in Victoria, Australia, to identify factors in selection for conditional release from an initial hospitalization that occurred within 30 days of entry into the mental health system. Methods: Data were from the Victorian Psychiatric Case Register. All patients first hospitalized and conditionally released between 1990 and 2000 were identified (N = 8,879), and three comparison groups were created. Two groups were hospitalized within 30 days of entering the system: those who were given conditional release and those who were not. A third group was conditionally released from a hospitalization that occurred after or extended beyond 30 days after system entry. Logistic regression identified characteristics that distinguished the first group. Ordinary least-squares regression was used to evaluate the contribution of conditional release early in treatment to reducing inpatient episodes, inpatient days, days per episode, and inpatient days per 30 days in the system. Results: Conditional release early in treatment was used for 11 percent of the sample, or more than a third of those who were eligible for this intervention. Factors significantly associated with selection for early conditional release were those related to a better prognosis ( initial hospitalization at a later age and having greater than an 11th grade education), a lower likelihood of a diagnosis of dementia or schizophrenia, involuntary status at first inpatient admission, and greater community involvement ( being employed and being married). When the analyses controlled for these factors, use of conditional release early in treatment was significantly associated with a reduction in use of subsequent inpatient care.

A cost-effectiveness analysis of heroin detoxification methods in the Australian National Evaluation of Pharmacotherapies for Opioid Dependence (NEPOD)

This economic evaluation was part of the Australian National Evaluation of Pharmacotherapies for Opioid Dependence (NEPOD) project. Data from four trials of heroin detoxification methods, involving 365 participants, were pooled to enable a comprehensive comparison of the cost-effectiveness of five inpatient and outpatient detoxification methods. This study took the perspective of the treatment provider in assessing resource use and costs. Two short-term outcome measures were used-achievement of an initial 7-day period of abstinence, and entry into ongoing post-detoxification treatment. The mean costs of the various detoxification methods ranged widely, from AUD $491 (buprenorphine-based outpatient); to AUD $605 for conventional outpatient; AUD $1404 for conventional inpatient; AUD $1990 for rapid detoxification under sedation; and to AUD $2689 for anaesthesia per episode. An incremental cost-effectiveness analysis was carried out using conventional outpatient detoxification as the base comparator. The buprenorphine-based outpatient detoxification method was found to be the most cost-effective method overall, and rapid opioid detoxification under sedation was the most costeffective inpatient method.

Progressive resistance training and stretching following surgery for breast cancer: study protocol for a randomised controlled trial

Background: Currently 1 in 11 women over the age of 60 in Australia are diagnosed with breast cancer. Following treatment, most breast cancer patients are left with shoulder and arm impairments which can impact significantly on quality of life and interfere substantially with activities of daily living. The primary aim of the proposed study is to determine whether upper limb impairments can be prevented by undertaking an exercise program of prolonged stretching and resistance training, commencing soon after surgery. Methods/design: We will recruit 180 women who have had surgery for early stage breast cancer to a multicenter single-blind randomized controlled trial. At 4 weeks post surgery, women will be randomly assigned to either an exercise group or a usual care ( control) group. Women allocated to the exercise group will perform exercises daily, and will be supervised once a week for 8 weeks. At the end of the 8 weeks, women will be given a home-based training program to continue indefinitely. Women in the usual care group will receive the same care as is now typically provided, i.e. a visit by the physiotherapist and occupational therapist while an inpatient, and receipt of pamphlets. All subjects will be assessed at baseline, 8 weeks, and 6 months later. The primary measure is arm symptoms, derived from a breast cancer specific questionnaire (BR23). In addition, range of motion, strength, swelling, pain and quality of life will be assessed. Discussion: This study will determine whether exercise commencing soon after surgery can prevent secondary problems associated with treatment of breast cancer, and will thus provide the basis for successful rehabilitation and reduction in ongoing problems and health care use. Additionally, it will identify whether strengthening exercises reduce the incidence of arm swelling. Trial Registration: The protocol for this study is registered with the Australian Clinical Trials Registry (ACTRN012606000050550).

Health system reform in Mexico 5: Assessing the effect of the 2001-06 Mexican health reform: an interim report card

Since 2001, Mexico has been designing, legislating, and implementing a major health-system reform. A key component was the creation of Seguro Popular, which is intended to expand insurance coverage over 7 years to uninsured people, nearly half the total population at the start of 2001. The reform included five actions: legislation of entitlement per family affiliated which, with full implementation, will increase public spending on health by 0.8-1.0% of gross domestic product; creation of explicit benefits packages; allocation of monies to decentralised state ministries of health in proportion to number of families affiliated; division of federal resources flowing to states into separate funds for personal and non-personal health services; and creation of a fund to protect families against catastrophic health expenditures. Using the WHO health-systems framework, we used a wide range of datasets to assess the effect of this reform on different dimensions of the health system. Key findings include: affiliation is preferentially reaching the poor and the marginalised communities; federal non-social security expenditure in real per-head terms increased by 38% from 2000 to 2005; equity of public-health expenditure across states improved; Seguro Popular affiliates used more inpatient and outpatient services than uninsured people; effective coverage of 11 interventions has improved between 2000 and 2005-06; inequalities in effective coverage across states and wealth deciles has decreased over this period; catastrophic expenditures for Seguro Popular affiliates are lower than for uninsured people even though use of services has increased. We present some lessons for Mexico based on this interim evaluation and explore implications for other countries considering health reforms.

Do adults in contact with Australia's public sector mental health services get better

This paper describes the outcomes of episodes of care for adults in public sector mental health services across Australia, with a view to informing the debate on service quality. Health of the Nation Outcome Scales (HoNOS) change scores and effect sizes were calculated for 14,659 acute inpatient episodes and 23,692 community episodes. The results showed that people in contact with public sector mental health services generally do get better, although the magnitude of improvement depends on the setting and episode type. This confirmatory finding is particularly positive, given current community concerns about the quality and effectiveness of mental health services.

Psychotropic medication utilization in a child and adolescent mental health service

Objectives: This study aimed to identify rates and correlates of psychotropic drug utilization in children and adolescents in inpatient and outpatient settings. Methods: A retrospective chart review examined 122 inpatient and 126 outpatient charts from a metropolitan child and youth mental health service in Brisbane, Australia. Results: Inpatients received more psychotropic medication than outpatients (71% vs. 25%; p < 0.01). Patients receiving medication were older, had longer hospital admissions, and more complex presentations, including history of abuse or suicide attempts and more diagnoses (all p < 0.01). Selective serotonin reuptake inhibitors (SSRIs) were the most frequently used drug class (44% inpatients; 14% outpatients), primarily indicated for mood disorders (31%). SSRIs and newer antidepressants (ADs) were used more frequently in patients with a high suicide risk (p < 0.01). Atypical antipsychotics (APs) were also used (inpatients 23%; outpatients 3%), primarily for behavioral disturbances. Half of those receiving medication (51%) received polypharmacy (> 1 concurrent drug), with up to four drugs used at one time. Rates of polypharmacy were highest among patients receiving antipsychotics. Conclusions: Use of psychotropic medication is frequent in this population. Future research should initially focus on inpatients and intensive treatment settings and examine both safety and efficacy of interventions for depression in young people, atypical antipsychotics for behavioral disturbances, and polypharmacy.

Neuropsychological assessment of an eighty-nine year old man

A case of first onset of the symptoms of mania in an eighty-nine year old man is reported. Organic contributions appear to be particularly important in cases of mania in older adults. In cases of first onset of mania in older adults the major differential diagnosis is between primary mania and a wide range of possible secondary etiological factors. This man had no known history of affective disorder and at the time of initial examination no organic explanation for his symptoms could be identified. While lateonset bipolar disorder has been reported in the literature, such cases are rare and are usually proceeded by a history of major depressive disorder or dysthymia. A range of neuropsychological assessment instruments were administered as part of a comprehensive inpatient examination of this man, commenting on his cognitive functioning and competence to manage his affairs. This assessment indicated that while his functioning was intact in some areas, there were areas of significant difficulty. The case illustrates the difficulties in interpreting neuropsychological assessment results obtained during a manic phase, and highlights some of the difficulties of conducting research with older adults.

A study of outcomes measures in forensic mental health

Outcomes measures, which is the measurement of effectiveness of interventions and services has been propelled onto the health service agenda since the introduction of the internal market in the 1990s. It arose as a result of the escalating cost of inpatient care, the need to identify what interventions work and in what situations, and the desire for effective information by service users enabled by the consumerist agenda introduced by Working for Patients white paper. The research reported in this thesis is an assessment of the readiness of the forensic mental health service to measure outcomes of interventions. The research examines the type, prevalence and scope of use of outcomes measures, and further seeks a consensus of views of key stakeholders on the priority areas for future development. It discusses the theoretical basis for defining health and advocates the argument that the present focus on measuring effectiveness of care is misdirected without the input of users, particularly patients in their care, drawing together the views of the many stakeholders who have an interest in the provision of care in the service. The research further draws on the theory of structuration to demonstrate the degree to which a duality of action, which is necessary for the development, and use of outcomes measures is in place within the service. Consequently, it highlights some of the hurdles that need to be surmounted before effective measurement of health gain can be developed in the field of study. It concludes by advancing the view that outcomes research can enable practitioners to better understand the relationship between the illness of the patient and the efficacy of treatment. This understanding it is argued would contribute to improving dialogue between the health care practitioner and the patient, and further providing the information necessary for moving away from untested assumptions, which are numerous in the field about the superiority of one treatment approach over another.

RAPD for the typing of coagulase-negative staphylococci implicated in catheter-related bloodstream infection

Objectives: A rapid random amplification of polymorphic DNA (RAPD) technique was developed to distinguish between strains of coagulase-negative staphylococci (CoNS) involved in central venous catheter (CVC)-related bloodstream infection. Its performance was compared with that of pulsed-field gel electrophoresis (PFGE). Methods: Patients at the University Hospital Birmingham NHS Foundation Trust, U.K. who underwent stem cell transplantation and were diagnosed with CVC-related bloodstream infection due to CoNS whilst on the bone marrow transplant unit were studied. Isolates of CoNS were genotyped by PFGE and RAPD, the latter employing a single primer and a simple DNA extraction method. Results: Both RAPD and PFGE were highly discriminatory (Simpson's diversity index, 0.96 and 0.99, respectively). Within the 49 isolates obtained from blood cultures of 33 patients, 20 distinct strains were identified by PFGE and 25 by RAPD. Of the 25 strains identified by RAPD, nine clusters of CoNS contained isolates from multiple patients, suggesting limited nosocomial spread. However, there was no significant association between time of inpatient stay and infection due to any particular strain. Conclusion: The RAPD technique presented allows CoNS strains to be genotyped with high discrimination within 4 h, facilitating real-time epidemiological investigations. In this study, no single strain of CoNS was associated with a significant number of CVC-related bloodstream infections. © 2005 Published by Elsevier Ltd on behalf of the British Infection Society.

Estimating the scope for savings in referrals and drug prescription costs in the general Practice units of a UK primary care trust

This paper explores the potential for cost savings in the general Practice units of a Primary Care Trust (PCT) in the UK. We have used Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) to identify benchmark Practices, which offer the lowest aggregate referral and drugs costs controlling for the number, age, gender, and deprivation level of the patients registered with each Practice. For the remaining, non-benchmark Practices, estimates of the potential for savings on referral and drug costs were obtained. Such savings could be delivered through a combination of the following actions: (i) reducing the levels of referrals and prescriptions without affecting their mix (£15.74 m savings were identified, representing 6.4% of total expenditure); (ii) switching between inpatient and outpatient referrals and/or drug treatment to exploit differences in their unit costs (£10.61 m savings were identified, representing 4.3% of total expenditure); (iii) seeking a different profile of referral and drug unit costs (£11.81 m savings were identified, representing 4.8% of total expenditure). © 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Examining the relationship between risk assessment and risk management in mental health

Risk assessment is crucial for developing risk management plans to prevent or minimize mental health patients' risks that will impede their recovery. Risk assessments and risk management plans should be closely linked. Their content and the extent to which they are linked within one Trust is explored. There is a great deal of variability in the amount and detail of risk information collected by nurses and how this is used to develop risk management plans. Keeping risk assessment information in one place rather than scattered throughout patient records is important for ensuring it can be accessed easily and linked properly to risk management plans. Strengthening the link between risk assessment and management will help ensure interventions and care is tailored to the specific needs of individual patients, thus promoting their safety and well-being. Thorough risk assessment helps in developing risk management plans that minimize risks that can impede mental health patients' recovery. Department of Health policy states that risk assessments and risk management plans should be inextricably linked. This paper examines their content and linkage within one Trust. Four inpatient wards for working age adults (18-65 years) in a large mental health Trust in England were included in the study. Completed risk assessment forms, for all patients in each inpatient ward were examined (n= 43), followed by an examination of notes for the same patients. Semi-structured interviews took place with ward nurses (n= 17). Findings show much variability in the amount and detail of risk information collected by nurses, which may be distributed in several places. Gaps in the risk assessment and risk management process are evident, and a disassociation between risk information and risk management plans is often present. Risk information should have a single location so that it can be easily found and updated. Overall, a more integrated approach to risk assessment and management is required, to help patients receive timely and appropriate interventions that can reduce risks such as suicide or harm to others. © 2011 Blackwell Publishing.

Set-up and maintenance of syringe drivers for subcutaneous drug administration in palliative care

Focal points: Details of syringe driver use were collected from 11 inpatient hospice units in the West Midlands and compared with predetermined standards set by a multidisciplinary group We recorded 294 syringe driver events which complied with standards for the choice of administration site, protection of the syringe driver from light and the reason for initiation of the infusion Issues of nurse training, variability in prescribing practices, provision of written information for patients, labelling and documentation of the diluent used were all identified as areas in which compliance with standards could be improved