The small open-economy New Keynesian Phillips Curve: empirical evidence and implied inflation dynamics

In this paper we apply GMM estimation to assess the relevance of domestic versus external determinants of CPI inflation dynamics in a sample of OECD countries typically classified as open economies. The analysis is based on a variant of the small open-economy New Keynesian Phillips Curve derived in Galí and Monacelli (Rev Econ Stud 72:707–734, 2005), where the novel feature is that expectations about fluctuations in the terms of trade enter explicitly. For most countries in our sample the expected relative change in the terms of trade emerges as the more relevant inflation driver than the contemporaneous domestic output gap.

Inflation dynamics in the new EU member states: how relevant are external factors?

In this paper we evaluate the relative influence of external versus domestic inflation drivers in the 12 new European Union (EU) member countries. Our empirical analysis is based on the New Keynesian Phillips Curve (NKPC) derived in Galí and Monacelli (2005) for small open economies (SOE). Employing the generalized method of moments (GMM), we find that the SOE NKPC is well supported in the new EU member states. We also find that the inflation process is dominated by domestic variables in the larger countries of our sample, whereas external variables are mostly relevant in the smaller countries.

The inflation hedging characteristics of US and UK investments: a multi-factor error correction approach

Historic analysis of the inflation hedging properties of stocks produced anomalous results, with equities often appearing to offer a perverse hedge against inflation. This has been attributed to the impact of real and monetary shocks to the economy, which influence both inflation and asset returns. It has been argued that real estate should provide a better hedge: however, empirical results have been mixed. This paper explores the relationship between commercial real estate returns (from both private and public markets) and economic, fiscal and monetary factors and inflation for US and UK markets. Comparative analysis of general equity and small capitalisation stock returns in both markets is carried out. Inflation is subdivided into expected and unexpected components using different estimation techniques. The analyses are undertaken using long-run error correction techniques. In the long-run, once real and monetary variables are included, asset returns are positively linked to anticipated inflation but not to inflation shocks. Adjustment processes are, however, gradual and not within period. Real estate returns, particularly direct market returns, exhibit characteristics that differ from equities.

Benchmarking and setting intervention targets for key cell count parameters

Herd Companion uses routine milk‐recording records to generate twelve‐month rolling averages that indicate performance trends. This article looks at Herd Somatic Cell Count (SCC) and four other SCC‐related parameters from 252 National Milk Records (NMR) recorded herds to assess how each parameter correlates with the Herd SCC. The analysis provides evidence for the importance of targeting individual cows with high SCC recordings (>200,000 cells/ml and >500,000 cells/ml) and/or individual cows with repeatedly high SCC recordings (chronic high SCC) and/or cows that begin lactation with a high SCC recording (dry period infection) in order to achieve bulk milk Herd SCC below 200,000 cells/ml.

Forecasting annual inflation with seasonal monthly data: using levels versus logs of the underlying price index

This paper investigates whether using natural logarithms (logs) of price indices for forecasting inflation rates is preferable to employing the original series. Univariate forecasts for annual inflation rates for a number of European countries and the USA based on monthly seasonal consumer price indices are considered. Stochastic seasonality and deterministic seasonality models are used. In many cases, the forecasts based on the original variables result in substantially smaller root mean squared errors than models based on logs. In turn, if forecasts based on logs are superior, the gains are typically small. This outcome sheds doubt on the common practice in the academic literature to forecast inflation rates based on differences of logs.

Multiple haptic targets for motion-impaired computer users

Although a number of studies have reported that force feedback gravity wells can improve performance in "point-and-click" tasks, there have been few studies addressing issues surrounding the use of gravity wells for multiple on-screen targets. This paper investigates the performance of users, both with and without motion-impairments, in a "point-and-click" task when an undesired haptic distractor is present. The importance of distractor location is studied explicitly. Results showed that gravity wells can still improve times and error rates, even on occasions when the cursor is pulled into a distractor. The greatest improvement is seen for the most impaired users. In addition to traditional measures such as time and errors, performance is studied in terms of measures of cursor movement along a path. Two cursor measures, angular distribution and temporal components, are proposed and their ability to explain performance differences is explored.

Supranutritional selenium induces alterations in molecular targets related to energy metabolism in skeletal muscle and visceral adipose tissue of pigs

While selenium (Se) is an essential micronutrient for humans, epidemiological studies have raised concern that supranutritional Se intake may increase the risk to develop Type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM). We aimed to determine the impact of Se at a dose and source frequently ingested by humans on markers of insulin sensitivity and signalling. Male pigs were fed either a Se-adequate (0.17 mg Se/kg) or a Se-supranutritional (0.50 mg Se/kg; high-Se) diet. After 16 weeks of intervention, fasting plasma insulin and cholesterol levels were non-significantly increased in the high-Se pigs, whereas fasting glucose concentrations did not differ between the two groups. In skeletal muscle of high-Se pigs, glutathione peroxidase activity was increased, gene expression of forkhead box O1 transcription factor and peroxisomal proliferator-activated receptor- coactivator 1 were increased and gene expression of the glycolytic enzyme pyruvate kinase was decreased. In visceral adipose tissue of high-Se pigs, mRNA levels of sterol regulatory element-binding transcription factor 1 were increased, and the phosphorylation of Akt, AMP-activated kinase and mitogen-activated protein kinases was affected. In conclusion, dietary Se oversupply may affect expression and activity of proteins involved in energy metabolism in major insulin target tissues, though this is probably not sufficient to induce diabetes.

Proteinase-activated receptors, targets for kallikrein signaling

Serine proteinases like thrombin can signal to cells by the cleavage/activation of proteinase-activated receptors (PARs). Although thrombin is a recognized physiological activator of PAR(1) and PAR(4), the endogenous enzymes responsible for activating PAR(2) in settings other than the gastrointestinal system, where trypsin can activate PAR(2), are unknown. We tested the hypothesis that the human tissue kallikrein (hK) family of proteinases regulates PAR signaling by using the following: 1) a high pressure liquid chromatography (HPLC)-mass spectral analysis of the cleavage products yielded upon incubation of hK5, -6, and -14 with synthetic PAR N-terminal peptide sequences representing the cleavage/activation motifs of PAR(1), PAR(2), and PAR(4); 2) PAR-dependent calcium signaling responses in cells expressing PAR(1), PAR(2), and PAR(4) and in human platelets; 3) a vascular ring vasorelaxation assay; and 4) a PAR(4)-dependent rat and human platelet aggregation assay. We found that hK5, -6, and -14 all yielded PAR peptide cleavage sequences consistent with either receptor activation or inactivation/disarming. Furthermore, hK14 was able to activate PAR(1), PAR(2), and PAR(4) and to disarm/inhibit PAR(1). Although hK5 and -6 were also able to activate PAR(2), they failed to cause PAR(4)-dependent aggregation of rat and human platelets, although hK14 did. Furthermore, the relative potencies and maximum effects of hK14 and -6 to activate PAR(2)-mediated calcium signaling differed. Our data indicate that in physiological settings, hKs may represent important endogenous regulators of the PARs and that different hKs can have differential actions on PAR(1), PAR(2), and PAR(4).

Improving real-time estimates of output and inflation gaps with multiple-vintage models

Real-time estimates of output gaps and inflation gaps differ from the values that are obtained using data available long after the event. Part of the problem is that the data on which the real-time estimates are based is subsequently revised. We show that vector-autoregressive models of data vintages provide forecasts of post-revision values of future observations and of already-released observations capable of improving estimates of output and inflation gaps in real time. Our findings indicate that annual revisions to output and inflation data are in part predictable based on their past vintages.

Molecular targets underlying SUMO-mediated neuroprotection in brain ischemia

SUMOylation (small ubiquitin-like modifier conjugation) is an important post-translational modification which is becoming increasingly implicated in the altered protein dynamics associated with brain ischemia. The function of SUMOylation in cells undergoing ischemic stress and the identity of small ubiquitin-like modifier (SUMO) targets remain in most cases unknown. However, the emerging consensus is that SUMOylation of certain proteins might be part of an endogenous neuroprotective response. This review brings together the current understanding of the underlying mechanisms and downstream effects of SUMOylation in brain ischemia, including processes such as autophagy, mitophagy and oxidative stress. We focus on recent advances and controversies regarding key central nervous system proteins, including those associated with the nucleus, cytoplasm and plasma membrane, such as glucose transporters (GLUT1, GLUT4), excitatory amino acid transporter 2 glutamate transporters, K+ channels (K2P1, Kv1.5, Kv2.1), GluK2 kainate receptors, mGluR8 glutamate receptors and CB1 cannabinoid receptors, which are reported to be SUMO-modified. A discussion of the roles of these molecular targets for SUMOylation could play following an ischemic event, particularly with respect to their potential neuroprotective impact in brain ischemia, is proposed.

A novel function of the proneural factor Ascl1 in progenitor proliferation identified by genome-wide characterization of its targets

Proneural genes such as Ascl1 are known to promote cell cycle exit and neuronal differentiation when expressed in neural progenitor cells. The mechanisms by which proneural genes activate neurogenesis--and, in particular, the genes that they regulate--however, are mostly unknown. We performed a genome-wide characterization of the transcriptional targets of Ascl1 in the embryonic brain and in neural stem cell cultures by location analysis and expression profiling of embryos overexpressing or mutant for Ascl1. The wide range of molecular and cellular functions represented among these targets suggests that Ascl1 directly controls the specification of neural progenitors as well as the later steps of neuronal differentiation and neurite outgrowth. Surprisingly, Ascl1 also regulates the expression of a large number of genes involved in cell cycle progression, including canonical cell cycle regulators and oncogenic transcription factors. Mutational analysis in the embryonic brain and manipulation of Ascl1 activity in neural stem cell cultures revealed that Ascl1 is indeed required for normal proliferation of neural progenitors. This study identified a novel and unexpected activity of the proneural gene Ascl1, and revealed a direct molecular link between the phase of expansion of neural progenitors and the subsequent phases of cell cycle exit and neuronal differentiation.

Research practices that can prevent an inflation of false-positive rates

Recent studies have indicated that research practices in psychology may be susceptible to factors that increase false-positive rates, raising concerns about the possible prevalence of false-positive findings. The present article discusses several practices that may run counter to the inflation of false-positive rates. Taking these practices into account would lead to a more balanced view on the false-positive issue. Specifically, we argue that an inflation of false-positive rates would diminish, sometimes to a substantial degree, when researchers (a) have explicit a priori theoretical hypotheses, (b) include multiple replication studies in a single paper, and (c) collect additional data based on observed results. We report findings from simulation studies and statistical evidence that support these arguments. Being aware of these preventive factors allows researchers not to overestimate the pervasiveness of false-positives in psychology and to gauge the susceptibility of a paper to possible false-positives in practical and fair ways.