984 resultados para Inflation rate forecast


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A multilocus mixed-mating model was used to evaluate the mating system of a population of Couratari multiflora, an emergent tree species found in low densities (1 individual/10 ha) in lowland forests of central Amazonia. We surveyed and observed phenologically 41 trees in an area of 400 ha. From these, only four mother trees were analyzed here because few of them set fruits, which also suffered high predation. No difference was observed between the population multilocus outcrossing rate (t mp = 0.953 ± 0.040) and the average single locus rate (t sp = 0.968 ± 0.132). The four mother trees were highly outcrossed (t m ~ 1). Two out of five loci showed departures from the Hardy-Weinberg Equilibrium (HWE) expectations, and the same results occurred with the mixed-mating model. Besides the low number of trees analyzed, the proportion of loci in HWE suggests random mating in the population. However, the pollen pool was heterogeneous among families, probably due to both the small sample number and the flowering of trees at different times of the flowering season. Reproductive phenology of the population and the results presented here suggest, at least for part of the population, a long-distance pollen movement, around 1,000 m.

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A newly developed strain rate dependent anisotropic continuum model is proposed for impact and blast applications in masonry. The present model adopted the usual approach of considering different yield criteria in tension and compression. The analysis of unreinforced block work masonry walls subjected to impact is carried out to validate the capability of the model. Comparison of the numerical predictions and test data revealed good agreement. Next, a parametric study is conducted to evaluate the influence of the tensile strengths along the three orthogonal directions and of the wall thickness on the global behavior of masonry walls.

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The present study proposes a dynamic constitutive material interface model that includes non-associated flow rule and high strain rate effects, implemented in the finite element code ABAQUS as a user subroutine. First, the model capability is validated with numerical simulations of unreinforced block work masonry walls subjected to low velocity impact. The results obtained are compared with field test data and good agreement is found. Subsequently, a comprehensive parametric analysis is accomplished with different joint tensile strengths and cohesion, and wall thickness to evaluate the effect of the parameter variations on the impact response of masonry walls.

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Dissertação de mestrado em Estatística

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PURPOSE: To assess the presence and the prevalence of arrhythmias and the variability of the heart rate in the medium-term postoperative period following the maze procedure for chronic atrial fibrillation (AF). METHODS: Seventeen patients with a mean age of 51.7±12.9 years, who previously underwent the maze procedure without cryoablation for chronic atrial fibrillation, were evaluated with the 24 hour electrocardiogram (ECG) - Holter monitoring from the 6th month after the operation. Valvular and coronary procedures were concomitantly performed. RESULTS: The mean heart rate during Holter monitoring was 82±8bpm; the maximal heart rate was 126 ± 23bpm and the minimal heart rate 57±7bpm. Sinus rhythm was found in 10 (59%) patients and atrial rhythm was found in 7 (41%). Supraventricular extrasystoles had a rate of 2.3±5.5% of the total number of heartbeats and occurred in 16 (94%) patients. Six (35%) patients showed nonsustained atrial tachycardia. Ventricular extrasystoles, with a rate of 0.8±0.5% of the total heartbeats, occurred in 14 (82%) patients. The chronotropic competence was normal in 9 (53%) patients and attenuated in 8 (47%). The atrioventricular conduction (AV) was unchanged in 13 (76%) patients and there were 4 (24%) cases of first degree atrioventricular block (AVB). CONCLUSION: After the maze procedure, the values for the mean heart rate, AV conduction and chronotropic competence approach the normal range, although some cases show attenuation of the chronotropic response, first degree AV block or benign arrhythmias.

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Aims: To evaluate the differences in linear and complex heart rate dynamics in twin pairs according to fetal sex combination [male-female (MF), male-male (MM), and female-female (FF)]. Methods: Fourteen twin pairs (6 MF, 3 MM, and 5 FF) were monitored between 31 and 36.4 weeks of gestation. Twenty-six fetal heart rate (FHR) recordings of both twins were simultaneously acquired and analyzed with a system for computerized analysis of cardiotocograms. Linear and nonlinear FHR indices were calculated. Results: Overall, MM twins presented higher intrapair average in linear indices than the other pairs, whereas FF twins showed higher sympathetic-vagal balance. MF twins exhibited higher intrapair average in entropy indices and MM twins presented lower entropy values than FF twins considering the (automatically selected) threshold rLu. MM twin pairs showed higher intrapair differences in linear heart rate indices than MF and FF twins, whereas FF twins exhibited lower intrapair differences in entropy indices. Conclusions: The results of this exploratory study suggest that twins have sex-specific differences in linear and nonlinear indices of FHR. MM twins expressed signs of a more active autonomic nervous system and MF twins showed the most active complexity control system. These results suggest that fetal sex combination should be taken into consideration when performing detailed evaluation of the FHR in twins.

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There are two significant reasons for the uncertainties of water demand. On one hand, an evolving technological world is plagued with accelerated change in lifestyles and consumption patterns; and on the other hand, intensifying climate change. Therefore, with an uncertain future, what enables policymakers to define the state of water resources, which are affected by withdrawals and demands? Through a case study based on thirteen years of observation data in the Zayandeh Rud River basin in Isfahan province located in Iran, this paper forecasts a wide range of urban water demand possibilities in order to create a portfolio of plans which could be utilized by different water managers. A comparison and contrast of two existing methods are discussed, demonstrating the Random Walk Methodology, which will be referred to as the â On uncertainty pathâ , because it takes the uncertainties into account and can be recommended to managers. This On Uncertainty Path is composed of both dynamic forecasting method and system simulation. The outcomes show the advantage of such methods particularly for places that climate change will aggravate their water scarcity, such as Iran.

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Fetal movements and fetal heart rate (FHR) are well-established markers of fetal well-being and maturation of the fetal central nervous system. The purpose of this paper is to review and discuss the available knowledge on fetal movements and heart rate patterns in twin pregnancies. There is some evidence for an association or similarity in fetal movement incidences or FHR patterns between both members of twin pairs. However, the temporal occurrence of these patterns seems to be for the most part asynchronous, especially when stricter criteria are used to define synchrony. The available data suggest that fetal behavior is largely independent of sex combination, fetal position, and presentation. Conversely, chorionicity appears to have some influence on fetal behavior, mainly before 30 weeks of gestation. There is preliminary evidence for the continuity of inter-individual differences in fetal activity and FHR patterns over pregnancy. Comparisons between studies are limited by large methodological differences and absence of uniform concepts and definitions. Future studies with high methodological quality are needed to provide a more comprehensive knowledge of normal fetal behavior in twin pregnancy.

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OBJECTIVE: To analyze hemodynamic and metabolic effects of saline solution infusion in the maintenance of blood volume in ischemia-reperfusion syndrome during temporary abdominal aortic occlusion in dogs. METHODS: We studied 20 dogs divided into 2 groups: the ischemia-reperfusion group (IRG, n=10) and the ischemia-reperfusion group with saline solution infusion aiming at maintaining mean pulmonary arterial wedge pressure between 10 and 20 mmHg (IRG-SS, n=10). All animals were anesthetized with sodium thiopental and maintained on spontaneous ventilation. Occlusion of the supraceliac aorta was obtained with inflation of a Fogarty catheter inserted through the femoral artery. After 60 minutes of ischemia, the balloon was deflated, and the animals were observed for another 60 minutes of reperfusion. RESULTS: IRG-SS dogs did not have hemodynamic instability after aortic unclamping, and the mean systemic blood pressure and heart rate were maintained. However, acidosis worsened, which was documented by a greater reduction of arterial pH that occurred especially due to the absence of a respiratory response to metabolic acidosis that was greater with the adoption of this procedure. CONCLUSION: Saline solution infusion to maintain blood volume avoided hemodynamic instability after aortic unclamping. This procedure, however, caused worsening in metabolic acidosis in this experimental model.

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OBJECTIVE:To verify the influence of moderate- or high-pressure balloon inflation during primary coronary stent implantation for acute myocardial infarction. METHODS: After successful coronary stent implantation, 82 patients were divided into 2 groups according to the last balloon inflation pressure: group 1 (³12 to <16 atm) and group 2 (³16 to 20 atm), each with 41 cases. All patients underwent late coronary angiography. RESULTS: In group 1, the mean stent deployment pressure was 13.58±0.92 atm, and in the group 2 it was 18.15±1.66 atm. Stents implanted with moderate pressures (³12 to <16 atm) had a significantly smaller postprocedural minimal lumen diameter, compared to with those with higher pressure, with lesser acute gain (2.7± 0.4 mm vs 2.9±04 mm; p=0.004), but the late lumen loss (0,9±0,8 mm vs 0,9±0,6 mm) and the restenosis (22% vs. 17.1%) and target-vessel revascularization rates (9.8% vs 7.3%) were similar between the groups. CONCLUSION: During AMI stenting, the use of high pressures (³16 atm) did not cause a measurable improvement in late outcome, either in the late loss, its index, and the net gain, or in clinical and angiographic restenosis rates.

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Background: When performing the Valsalva maneuver (VM), adults and preadolescents produce the same expiratory resistance values. Objective: To analyze heart rate (HR) in preadolescents performing VM, and propose a new method for selecting expiratory resistance. Method: The maximal expiratory pressure (MEP) was measured in 45 sedentary children aged 9-12 years who subsequently performed VM for 20 s using an expiratory pressure of 60%, 70%, or 80% of MEP. HR was measured before, during, and after VM. These procedures were repeated 30 days later, and the data collected in the sessions (E1, E2) were analyzed and compared in periods before, during (0-10 and 10-20 s), and after VM using nonparametric tests. Results: All 45 participants adequately performed VM in E1 and E2 at 60% of MEP. However, only 38 (84.4%) and 25 (55.5%) of the participants performed the maneuver at 70% and 80% of MEP, respectively. The HR delta measured during 0-10 s and 10-20 s significantly increased as the expiratory effort increased, indicating an effective cardiac autonomic response during VM. However, our findings suggest the VM should not be performed at these intensities. Conclusion: HR increased with all effort intensities tested during VM. However, 60% of MEP was the only level of expiratory resistance that all participants could use to perform VM. Therefore, 60% of MEP may be the optimal expiratory resistance that should be used in clinical practice.

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Background: Heart rate variability (HRV) is a marker of autonomic dysfunction severity. The effects of physical training on HRV indexes in Chagas heart disease (CHD) are not well established. Objective: To evaluate the changes in HRV indexes in response to physical training in CHD. Methods: Patients with CHD and left ventricular (LV) dysfunction, physically inactive, were randomized either to the intervention (IG, N = 18) or control group (CG, N = 19). The IG participated in a 12-week exercise program consisting of 3 sessions/week. Results: Mean age was 49.5 ± 8 years, 59% males, mean LVEF was 36.3 ± 7.8%. Baseline HRV indexes were similar between groups. From baseline to follow-up, total power (TP): 1653 (IQ 625 - 3418) to 2794 (1617 - 4452) ms, p = 0.02) and very low frequency power: 586 (290 - 1565) to 815 (610 - 1425) ms, p = 0.047) increased in the IG, but not in the CG. The delta (post - pre) HRV indexes were similar: SDNN 11.5 ± 30.0 vs. 3.7 ± 25.1 ms. p = 0.10; rMSSD 2 (6 - 17) vs. 1 (21 - 9) ms. p = 0.43; TP 943 (731 - 3130) vs. 1780 (921 - 2743) Hz. p = 0.46; low frequency power (LFP) 1.0 (150 - 197) vs. 60 (111 - 146) Hz. p = 0.85; except for high frequency power, which tended to increase in the IG: 42 (133 - 92) vs. 79 (61 - 328) Hz. p = 0.08). Conclusion: In the studied population, the variation of HRV indexes was similar between the active and inactive groups. Clinical improvement with physical activity seems to be independent from autonomic dysfunction markers in CHD.