Modelling distributional trends to inform conservation strategies for endangered species

Aim: Species loss has increased significantly over the last 1000 years and is ultimately attributed to the direct and indirect consequences of increased human population growth across the planet. A growing number of species are becoming endangered and require human intervention to prevent their local extirpation or complete extinction. Management strategies aimed at mitigating a species loss can benefit greatly from empirical approaches that indicate the rate of decline of a species providing objective information on the need for immediate conservation actions, e.g. captive breeding; however, this is rarely employed. The current study used a novel method to examine the distributional trends of a model endangered species, the freshwater pearl mussel, Margaritifera margaritifera (L.).
Location: United Kingdom and Republic of Ireland.
Methods: Using species presence data within 10-km grid squares since records began three-parameter logistic regression curves were fitted to extrapolate an estimated date of regional extinction.
Results: This study has shown that freshwater pearl mussel distribution has contracted since known historical records and outlier populations were lost first. Within the United Kingdom and Republic of Ireland, distribution loss has been greatest in Scotland, Northern Ireland, Wales and England, respectively, with the Republic of Ireland containing the highest relative proportion of M. margaritifera distribution, in 1998.
Main conclusions: This study provides empirical evidence that this species could become extinct throughout countries within the United Kingdom within 170 years under the current trends and emphasizes that regionally specific management strategies need to be implemented to prevent extirpation of this species.

Incidence of Type 1 Diabetes in Sweden Among Individuals Aged 0–34 Years, 1983–2007:An analysis of time trends

OBJECTIVE: To clarify whether the increase in childhood type 1 diabetes is mirrored by a decrease in older age-groups, resulting in younger age at diagnosis.
RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: We used data from two prospective research registers, the Swedish Childhood Diabetes Register, which included case subjects aged 0-14.9 years at diagnosis, and the Diabetes in Sweden Study, which included case subjects aged 15-34.9 years at diagnosis, covering birth cohorts between 1948 and 2007. The total database included 20,249 individuals with diabetes diagnosed between 1983 and 2007. Incidence rates over time were analyzed using Poisson regression models.
RESULTS: The overall yearly incidence rose to a peak of 42.3 per 100,000 person-years in male subjects aged 10-14 years and to a peak of 37.1 per 100,000 person-years in female subjects aged 5-9 years and decreased thereafter. There was a significant increase by calendar year in both sexes in the three age-groups <15 years; however, there were significant decreases in the older age-groups (25- to 29-years and 30- to 34-years age-groups). Poisson regression analyses showed that a cohort effect seemed to dominate over a time-period effect.
CONCLUSIONS: Twenty-five years of prospective nationwide incidence registration demonstrates a clear shift to younger age at onset rather than a uniform increase in incidence rates across all age-groups. The dominance of cohort effects over period effects suggests that exposures affecting young children may be responsible for the increasing incidence in the younger age-groups.

Review of The New Punitiveness: Trends, Theories, Perspectives , edited by J Pratt, D Brown, M Brown, S Hallsworth and W Morrison

Book Review

Credit Unions in Great Britain: Recent Trends and Current Prospects

Against the current backdrop of deteriorating economic and financial conditions we consider recent trends and current prospects for credit unions in Great Britain. We note that although credit unions have experienced solid membership and asset growth there are clouds on the horizon. Bad debts and loan arrears are on the rise and may be linked to recent legislative amendments and the increasing use by Government of credit unions as a mechanism to achieve its financial inclusion goals. Whatever the reason, the deterioration in the loan book needs to be quickly addressed, or it will ultimately result in either more government bailouts or a stream of failing credit unions.

Mid to late Holocene hydrological change in continental eastern Canada: assessing regional trends from ombrotrophic peat records.

ABSTRACT High resolution records of mid-late Holocene hydro-climatic change are presented from Mer Bleue Bog, eastern Ontario. Past climatic changes in this region have previously been inferred from lake sediments, but rain-fed peatlands can offer additional insights into the spatial and temporal pattern of moisture availability. In this study, reconstructed water table depths are based on a testate amoeba-derived transfer function developed for the region and changes in bog surface wetness are compared with plant macrofossil and peat humification data.

RÉSUMÉ Nous présentons les enregistrements hautes résolutions des variations hydrologique durant la second moitié de l’Holocène pour les tourbières Mer Bleue á l’est de l'Ontario. Précédemment, les changements climatiques de cette région ont été dérivés à partir de prélèvement de sédiments de lac. Mais ils s’avèrent que les tourbières ombrotrophes offrir un éclairage supplémentaire sur les schémas de répartition spatiale et temporelle de la disponibilité de l'humidité. Dans cette étude, des profondeurs reconstruites de nappe phréatique sont basées sur un modèle de function de transfert d’amibes (Arcellinida) et des changements de l’humidité de surface de la tourbière sont comparés avec les macrofossils et au humification de tourbe dans une analyse multi-proxy.

Modelling the cycling of persistent organic pollutants (POPs) in the North Sea system: Fluxes, loading, seasonality, trends

The fate and cycling of two selected POPs is investigated for the North Sea system with an improved version of a fate and transport ocean model (FANTOM). The model uses atmospheric data from the EMEP MSC East POP model (Gusev et al., 2009), giving reasonable concentrations and seasonal distributions for the entire region, as opposed to the three observation stations that Ilyina et al. (2006) were limited to. Other model improvements include changes in the calculation of POP exchange between the water column and sediment.

We chose to simulate the fate of two POPs with very different properties, ?-HCH and PCB 153. Since the fate and cycling of POPs are strongly affected by hydrodynamic processes, a high resolution version of the Hamburg Shelf Ocean Model (HAMSOM) was developed and utilised. Simulations were made for the period 1996–2005. Both models were validated by comparing results with available data, which showed that the simulations were of very satisfactory quality.

Model results show that the North Sea is a net sink for ?-HCH and a net source to the atmosphere of PCB 153. Total masses of ?-HCH and PCB 153 in 2005 are reduced to 30% and 50%, respectively, of 1996 values.

Storms resuspending bottom sediments into the water column mobilise POPs into the atmosphere and have the potential to deliver substantial loads of these POPs into Europe.