Sparse modeling using orthogonal forward regression with PRESS statistic and regularization

The paper introduces an efficient construction algorithm for obtaining sparse linear-in-the-weights regression models based on an approach of directly optimizing model generalization capability. This is achieved by utilizing the delete-1 cross validation concept and the associated leave-one-out test error also known as the predicted residual sums of squares (PRESS) statistic, without resorting to any other validation data set for model evaluation in the model construction process. Computational efficiency is ensured using an orthogonal forward regression, but the algorithm incrementally minimizes the PRESS statistic instead of the usual sum of the squared training errors. A local regularization method can naturally be incorporated into the model selection procedure to further enforce model sparsity. The proposed algorithm is fully automatic, and the user is not required to specify any criterion to terminate the model construction procedure. Comparisons with some of the existing state-of-art modeling methods are given, and several examples are included to demonstrate the ability of the proposed algorithm to effectively construct sparse models that generalize well.

A robust nonlinear identification algorithm using PRESS statistic and forward regression

This letter introduces a new robust nonlinear identification algorithm using the Predicted REsidual Sums of Squares (PRESS) statistic and for-ward regression. The major contribution is to compute the PRESS statistic within a framework of a forward orthogonalization process and hence construct a model with a good generalization property. Based on the properties of the PRESS statistic the proposed algorithm can achieve a fully automated procedure without resort to any other validation data set for iterative model evaluation.

Automatic nonlinear predictive model-construction algorithm using forward regression and the PRESS statistic

An automatic nonlinear predictive model-construction algorithm is introduced based on forward regression and the predicted-residual-sums-of-squares (PRESS) statistic. The proposed algorithm is based on the fundamental concept of evaluating a model's generalisation capability through crossvalidation. This is achieved by using the PRESS statistic as a cost function to optimise model structure. In particular, the proposed algorithm is developed with the aim of achieving computational efficiency, such that the computational effort, which would usually be extensive in the computation of the PRESS statistic, is reduced or minimised. The computation of PRESS is simplified by avoiding a matrix inversion through the use of the orthogonalisation procedure inherent in forward regression, and is further reduced significantly by the introduction of a forward-recursive formula. Based on the properties of the PRESS statistic, the proposed algorithm can achieve a fully automated procedure without resort to any other validation data set for iterative model evaluation. Numerical examples are used to demonstrate the efficacy of the algorithm.

English nettles and other poems

A collection of poems, illustrated by Sally Castle.

Evaluation of peak-picking algorithms for protein mass spectrometry

Peak picking is an early key step in MS data analysis. We compare three commonly used approaches to peak picking and discuss their merits by means of statistical analysis. Methods investigated encompass signal-to-noise ratio, continuous wavelet transform, and a correlation-based approach using a Gaussian template. Functionality of the three methods is illustrated and discussed in a practical context using a mass spectral data set created with MALDI-TOF technology. Sensitivity and specificity are investigated using a manually defined reference set of peaks. As an additional criterion, the robustness of the three methods is assessed by a perturbation analysis and illustrated using ROC curves.

Mechanisms of burst release from pH-responsive polymeric microparticles.

Microencapsulation of drugs into preformed polymers is commonly achieved through solvent evaporation techniques or spray drying. We compared these encapsulation methods in terms of controlled drug release properties of the prepared microparticles and investigated the underlying mechanisms responsible for the “burst release” effect. Using two different pH-responsive polymers with a dissolution threshold of pH 6 (Eudragit L100 and AQOAT AS-MG), hydrocortisone, a model hydrophobic drug, was incorporated into microparticles below and above its solubility within the polymer matrix. Although, spray drying is an attractive approach due to rapid particle production and relatively low solvent waste, the oil-in-oil microencapsulation method is superior in terms of controlled drug release properties from the microparticles. Slow solvent evaporation during the oil-in-oil emulsification process allows adequate time for drug and polymer redistribution in the microparticles and reduces uncontrolled drug burst release. Electron microscopy showed that this slower manufacturing procedure generated non-porous particles whereas thermal analysis and X-ray diffractometry showed that drug loading above the solubility limit of the drug in the polymer generated excess crystalline drug on the surface of the particles. Raman spectral mapping illustrated that drug was homogeneously distributed as a solid solution in the particles when loaded below saturation in the polymer with consequently minimal burst release.

Effective elements of cognitive behaviour therapy for psychosis: results of a novel type of subgroup analysis based on principal stratification

Background. Meta-analyses show that cognitive behaviour therapy for psychosis (CBT-P) improves distressing positive symptoms. However, it is a complex intervention involving a range of techniques. No previous study has assessed the delivery of the different elements of treatment and their effect on outcome. Our aim was to assess the differential effect of type of treatment delivered on the effectiveness of CBT-P, using novel statistical methodology. Method. The Psychological Prevention of Relapse in Psychosis (PRP) trial was a multi-centre randomized controlled trial (RCT) that compared CBT-P with treatment as usual (TAU). Therapy was manualized, and detailed evaluations of therapy delivery and client engagement were made. Follow-up assessments were made at 12 and 24 months. In a planned analysis, we applied principal stratification (involving structural equation modelling with finite mixtures) to estimate intention-to-treat (ITT) effects for subgroups of participants, defined by qualitative and quantitative differences in receipt of therapy, while maintaining the constraints of randomization. Results. Consistent delivery of full therapy, including specific cognitive and behavioural techniques, was associated with clinically and statistically significant increases in months in remission, and decreases in psychotic and affective symptoms. Delivery of partial therapy involving engagement and assessment was not effective. Conclusions. Our analyses suggest that CBT-P is of significant benefit on multiple outcomes to patients able to engage in the full range of therapy procedures. The novel statistical methods illustrated in this report have general application to the evaluation of heterogeneity in the effects of treatment.

Virginia Woolf, Hugh Walpole, the Hogarth Press, and the Book Society

This article explores the unlikely relationship and alliance between the novelists Virginia Woolf and Hugh Walpole. It examines the ways in which these typically highbrow and middlebrow writers influenced each others’ lives and work, and focuses in particular on the interactions between the Woolfs’ Hogarth Press and Walpole’s Book Society, the first book club to operate in Great Britain. The article uses a number of case studies drawn from the Hogarth Press archives to demonstrate how by the 1930s, the Hogarth Press was much more commercial in its operations and pursuits of reading markets than is often recognized.

From hieroglyphics to Isotype: a visual autobiography (Otto Neurath)

Otto Neurath (1882–1945) wrote From hieroglyphics to Isotype during the last two years of his life and this is the first publication of the text in full, carefully edited from the original manuscripts. He called it a 'visual autobiography', in which he documents the importance of visual material to him from his earliest years to his professional activity with the picture language of Isotype. Neurath draws clear links between the stimulus he received as a boy from illustrated books, toys and exhibitions to the considered work in visual education that occupied him for the last two decades of his life. This engaging and informal account gives a rich picture of Central European culture around the turn of the twentieth century, seen through the eyes of Neurath's insatiable intelligence, as well as a detailed exposition of the technique of Isotype, a milestone of modern graphic design. This edition includes the numerous illustrations intended by Neurath to accompany his text, and is completed by an extensive appendix showing examples from the rich variety of graphic material that he collected.

The Press in a world of technological change, 1970–2000

Oxford University Press’s response to technological change in printing and publishing processes in this period can be considered in three phases: an initial period when the computerization of typesetting was seen as offering both cost savings and the ability to produce new editions of existing works more quickly; an intermediate phase when the emergence of standards in desktop computing allowed experiments with the sale of software as well as packaged electronic publications; and a third phase when the availability of the world wide web as a means of distribution allowed OUP to return to publishing in its traditional areas of strength albeit in new formats. Each of these phases demonstrates a tension between a desire to develop centralized systems and expertise, and a recognition that dynamic publishing depends on distributed decision-making and innovation. Alongside these developments in production and distribution lay developments in computer support for managerial and collaborative publishing processes, often involving the same personnel and sometimes the same equipment.