Aggregate uncertainty, disappointment aversion and the business cycle

We investigate the eff ect of aggregate uncertainty shocks on real variables. More speci fically, we introduce a shock in the volatility of productivity in an RBC model with long-run volatility risk and preferences that exhibit generalised disappointment aversion. We find that, when combined with a negative productivity shock, a volatility shock leads to further decline in real variables, such as output, consumption, hours worked and investment. For instance, out of the 2% decrease in output as a result of both shocks, we attribute 0.25% to the e ffect of an increase in volatility. We also fi nd that this e ffect is the same as the one obtained in a model with Epstein-Zin- Weil preferences, but higher than that of a model with expected utility. Moreover, GDA preferences yield superior asset pricing results, when compared to both Epstein-Zin-Weil preferences and expected utility.

The exhaustion of the brazilian growth cycle

O Brasil recebeu muita atenção na última década, sua ascensão ao status de grande potência e uma das maiores economias mundiais tem sido enfatizada. No entanto, existem sinais de que essa prosperidade recente está chegando ao fim, sugerindo que houve um excesso de otimismo em relação ao aparente sucesso econômico do país e a possiblidade de crescimento contínuo. O Brasil focou na exportação de produtos primários e em um modelo de crescimento baseado no consumo, que se tornaram as locomotivas da economia. Uma pujante economia mundial demandando produtos primários e um amplo e inexplorado mercado interno ajudam a explicar o crescimento brasileiro na década passada. Não obstante, esse modelo apresenta diversas limitações. A inflação, mais uma vez, está em alta e os gargalos que impedem o desenvolvimento econômico não foram resolvidos. O objetivo desta dissertação é demonstrar que o atual ciclo de crescimento da economia brasileira está no fim. Dados de diversas fontes, nacionais e internacionais, serão usados para indicar que, novamente, o país teve um crescimento efêmero e não possui uma estrutura econômica adequada para promover o desenvolvimento de longo prazo. Uma breve análise dos fundamentos econômicos, clima de negócios e outros tópicos relacionados ao crescimento e desenvolvimento será apresentada, articulando dados e fatos para encontrar causas e explicações para a atual inversão de tendência econômica.

On the welfare costs of business-cycle fluctuations and economic-growth variation in the 20th century and beyond

The main objective of this paper is to propose a novel setup that allows estimating separately the welfare costs of the uncertainty stemming from business-cycle uctuations and from economic-growth variation, when the two types of shocks associated with them (respectively,transitory and permanent shocks) hit consumption simultaneously. Separating these welfare costs requires dealing with degenerate bivariate distributions. Levis Continuity Theorem and the Disintegration Theorem allow us to adequately de ne the one-dimensional limiting marginal distributions. Under Normality, we show that the parameters of the original marginal distributions are not afected, providing the means for calculating separately the welfare costs of business-cycle uctuations and of economic-growth variation. Our empirical results show that, if we consider only transitory shocks, the welfare cost of business cycles is much smaller than previously thought. Indeed, we found it to be negative - -0:03% of per-capita consumption! On the other hand, we found that the welfare cost of economic-growth variation is relatively large. Our estimate for reasonable preference-parameter values shows that it is 0:71% of consumption US$ 208:98 per person, per year.

A monthly indicator of Brazilian GDP. The Brazilian business cycle and growth cycle

This paper constructs an indicator of Brazilian GDP at the monthly ftequency. The peculiar instability and abrupt changes of regimes in the dynamic behavior of the Brazilian business cycle were explicitly modeled within nonlinear ftameworks. In particular, a Markov switching dynarnic factor model was used to combine several macroeconomic variables that display simultaneous comovements with aggregate economic activity. The model generates as output a monthly indicator of the Brazilian GDP and real time probabilities of the current phase of the Brazilian business cycle. The monthly indicator shows a remarkable historical conformity with cyclical movements of GDP. In addition, the estimated filtered probabilities predict ali recessions in sample and out-of-sample. The ability of the indicator in linear forecasting growth rates of GDP is also examined. The estimated indicator displays a better in-sample and out-of-sample predictive performance in forecasting growth rates of real GDP, compared to a linear autoregressive model for GDP. These results suggest that the estimated monthly indicator can be used to forecast GDP and to monitor the state of the Brazilian economy in real time.

Unit roots and the welfare gains of cycle smoothing

li consumption is log-Normal and is decomposed into a linear deterministic trend and a stationary cycle, a surprising result in business-cycle research is that the welfare gains of eliminating uncertainty are relatively small. A possible problem with such calculations is the dichotomy between the trend and the cyclical components of consumption. In this paper, we abandon this dichotomy in two ways. First, we decompose consumption into a deterministic trend, a stochastic trend, and a stationary cyclical component, calculating the welfare gains of cycle smoothing. Calculations are carried forward only after a careful discussion of the limitations of macroeconomic policy. Second, still under the stochastic-trend model, we incorporate a variable slope for consumption depending negatively on the overall volatility in the economy. Results are obtained for a variety of preference parameterizations, parameter values, and different macroeconomic-policy goals. They show that, once the dichotomy in the decomposition in consumption is abandoned, the welfare gains of cycle smoothing may be substantial, especially due to the volatility effect.

Monopolies life cycle, bureaucratization, and Schumpeterian growth

This paper analyzes the links between the internaI organization of firms and macroeconomic growth. We present a Schumpeterian growth model in which firms face dynamic agency costs. These agency costs are due to the formation of vertical collusions within the organization. To respond to the opportunity of internaI collusion, firms go through a whole life cycle, getting more bureaucratized and Iess efficient over time. vVeak creative destruction in the economy facilitates informal collusion inside firms and exacerbates bureaucratization. As bureaucratization affects the firms' profitability and the return to innovation, stationary equilibrium growth depends in turn on the efficiency of collusive side-contracts within firms.

Validation of the Deardorff model for estimating energy balance components for a sugarcane crop

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Pigeons (Columba livia) are a suitable experimental model for Neospora caninum infection in birds

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

Cell cycle arrest evidence, parasiticidal and bactericidal properties induced by L-amino acid oxidase from Bothrops atrox snake venom

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Influence of the estrous cycle on the behavior of rats in the elevated T-maze

The elevated T-maze is an animal anxiety model which can discriminate between anxiety-like and fear-like behaviors. The estrous cycle is an important variable of the response in animal anxiety tests and is known to affect other models. The aim of the present study was to investigate the influence of the estrous cycle on behavior displayed in the elevated T-maze test. Seventeen male and 60 female rats were submitted to one session in this test, with the females being screened for the estrous cycle and divided into groups according to the various phases. The elevated T-maze had three arms of equal dimensions (50 cm x 10 cm), one enclosed by 40-cm high walls and perpendicular to the others, the apparatus being elevated 50cm above the floor. Each rat was placed in the end of the enclosed arm and the latency for it to leave this arm was recorded. These measurements were repeated three times separated by 30-s intervals (passive avoidance). After trial 3, each rat was placed at the distal end of the right open arm and the latency to exit this arm was recorded. Whenever latencies were greater than 300 s the trial was finished. The results demonstrated females in diestrus exhibited anxiety-like behaviors while females in metaestrus behaved in a similar way as the males. There were no differences between groups in fear-like behaviors. The results also indicate the elevated T-maze to be a sensitive test to measure anxiety. (C) 2004 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Optimisation of environmental gas cleaning routes for solid wastes cogeneration systems - Part I - Analysis of waste incineration steam cycle

Research of advanced technologies for energy generation contemplates a series of alternatives that are introduced both in the investigation of new energy sources and in the improvement and/or development of new components and systems. Even though significant reductions are observed in the amount of emissions, the proposed alternatives require the use of exhaust gases cleaning systems. The results of environmental analyses based on two configurations proposed for urban waste incineration are presented in this paper; the annexation of integer (Boolean) variables to the environomic model makes it possible to define the best gas cleaning routes based on exergetic cost minimisation criteria. In this first part, the results for steam cogeneration system analysis associated with the incineration of municipal solid wastes (MSW) is presented. (c) 2007 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Monitoring of cure kinetic prepreg and cure cycle modeling

Cure kinetic model is an integral part of composite process simulation, which is used to predict the degree of curing and the amount of the generated heat. The parameters involved in kinetic models are usually determined empirically from isothermal or dynamic differential scanning calorimetry (DSC) data. In this work, DSC and rheological techniques were used to investigate some of the kinetic parameters of cure reactions of carbon/F161 epoxy prepreg and to evaluate the cure cycle used to manufacture polymeric composites for aeronautical applications. As a result, it was observed that the F161 prepreg presents cure kinetic with total order 1.2-1.9. (c) 2006 Springer Science + Business Media, Inc.

Describing fatigue crack growth and load ratio effects in Al 2524 T3 alloy with an enhanced exponential model

The fatigue crack behavior in metals and alloys under constant amplitude test conditions is usually described by relationships between the crack growth rate da/dN and the stress intensity factor range Delta K. In the present work, an enhanced two-parameter exponential equation of fatigue crack growth was introduced in order to describe sub-critical crack propagation behavior of Al 2524-T3 alloy, commonly used in aircraft engineering applications. It was demonstrated that besides adequately correlating the load ratio effects, the exponential model also accounts for the slight deviations from linearity shown by the experimental curves. A comparison with Elber, Kujawski and "Unified Approach" models allowed for verifying the better performance, when confronted to the other tested models, presented by the exponential model. (C) 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Effects of dietary trace mineral sources and levels fed to layers in their second laying cycle on the quality of eggs stored at different temperatures and for different periods

This study aimed at evaluating the effects of trace mineral levels and sources supplemented to diets fed to semi-heavy layers in their second laying cycle on the quality of eggs stored for 14 days at different temperatures. The experimental diets consisted of the inclusion of inorganic trace minerals (T1 - control: 100% ITM) and five supplementation levels of organic trace minerals (carboaminophopho chelates) (110, 100, 90, 80, and 70% OTM). Trace mineral inclusion levels (mg/kg feed) were: T1: control - 100% ITM: Zn (54), Fe (54), Mn (72), Cu (10), I (0.61) Se (0.3); T2 - 110% OTM: Zn (59.4), Fe (59.4), Mn (79.2), Cu (11.88), I (1.21) Se (0.59); T3 - 100%: OTM: Zn (54), Fe (54), Mn (72), Cu (10.8), I (1.10) Se (0.54); T4 - 90% OTM: Zn (48.6), Fe (48.6), Mn (64.8), Cu (9.72), I (0.99) Se (0.49); T5 - 80% OTM: Zn (43.2), Fe (43.2), Mn (57.6), Cu (8.64), I (0.88), Se (0.43); T6 - 70% OTM: Zn (37.8), Fe (37.8), Mn (50.4), Cu (7.56), I (0.77) Se (0.38). A completely randomized experimental design in a split-plot arrangement with 60 treatments of four replicates each was applied. The combination of six diets versus storage temperature (room or under refrigeration) was randomized in plots, whereas the sub-plots consisted of storage times (0, 3, 7, 10, and 14 days). Data were submitted to analysis of variance of a model in slip-plots in time using the software package SAS (2000) at 5% probability level. It was concluded that 70% OTM supplementation can be used with no damage to egg quality, independently from storage temperature or time. The quality of refrigerated eggs stored up to 14 days is better than those stored at room temperature.

Influence of gender and estrous cycle in the forced swim test in rats

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)