Description, geochemistry, mineralogy and isotopes of sulfides from ODP Site 193-1189, PACMANUS field

Chemical and isotopic data for rare massive and semimassive sulfide samples cored at Site 1189 (Roman Ruins, PACMANUS) suggest their genetic relationship with sulfide chimneys at the seafloor. Sand collected from the hammer drill after commencement of Hole 1189B indicates that at least the lower section of the cased interval was occupied by material similar to the stockwork zone cored from 31 to ~100 meters below seafloor (mbsf) in this hole, but with increased content of barite, sphalerite, and lead-bearing minerals. Fractional crystallization of ascending hydrothermal fluid involving early precipitation of pyrite may explain vertical mineralogical and chemical zoning within the stockwork conduit and the high base and precious metal contents of Roman Ruins chimneys. A mineralized volcaniclastic unit cored deep in Hole 1189A possibly represents the lateral fringe of the conduit system. Lead isotope ratios in the sulfides differ slightly but significantly from those of fresh lavas from Pual Ridge, implying that at least some of the Pb within the Roman Ruins hydrothermal system derived from a deeper, more radiogenic source than the enclosing altered volcanic rocks.

Chemical and isotopic compositions of zircons from amphibolites of the Kamchatksky Cape Peninsula

The paper reports the first data on geochemistry and U-Pb SHRIMP geochronology of zircons from garnet amphibolites whose fragments are hosted by the sole of the ophiolite complex of the Kamchatsky Cape, eastern Kamchatka. The zircons compose homogeneous sampling, have relatively small sizes, are anhedral, have no oscillatory zoning, and possess practically no inclusions. Chemical and photoluminescent characteristics of the zircons testify to their metamorphic genesis. U-Pb SHRIMP dates of the zircons (81.4+/-9.6 Ma) indicate that metamorphism of the amphibolite complex took place in Campanian, Late Cretaceous. These dates seem to correspond to the peak of high-pressure metamorphism, which is thought to be related to origin of an ophiolite complex of the suprasubduction type and its uplift within the Kronotsky Island arc.

Extensive boiling as a precipitation mechanism for precious and base metal ores, Bienaventurada Mine, Huancavelica, Perú

The Bienaventurada mine operates a polymetallic Ag-Pb-Zn (Cu, Au) vein system of the low sulphidation epithermal type. Fluid inclusions, FI, are abundant in quartz, sphalerite and adularia. FI petrography demonstrates typical primary growth zoning which occurs frequently in crystalline quartz, and defines the most common primary FI. These are usually very small, but several types of primary, P, and secondary, S, FI Assemblages (FIAs) comprising FI of measurable size (3 to > 100 μm) can also be identified through careful petrographic work. The fluids are aqueous and undersaturated, and no evidence of CO2 was found; the degree of fill is usually high (~70-80 %) in the L-rich inclusions, but extremely low in V-rich inclusions. The measured microthermometric values are very consistent in the FIAs selected; they are for the most part roughly similar in the P and S assemblages: the median is typically ~258ºC for total homogenization temperatures, Th, and -1.5 ºC for ice melting temperatures, Tm (corresponding to 2.57 wt% NaCl eq). The widespread occurrence of L-rich and V-rich FI in the same FIA and the consistent Th values point to an extensive boiling system along the vein. In these conditions, Th equals T of trapping, and the ores are assumed to have been precipitated from an aqueous low salinity boiling fluid, of likely meteoric origin, at some 250-280º C, under ~500 m hydrostatic head.

Estrategias innovadoras para la gestión del riesgo de sequía en sistemas ganaderos extensivos

La vulnerabilidad de los sistemas ganaderos de pastoreo pone en evidencia la necesidad de herramientas para evaluar y mitigar los efectos de la sequía. El avance en la teledetección ha despertado el interés por explotar potenciales aplicaciones, y está dando lugar a un intenso desarrollo de innovaciones en distintos campos. Una de estas áreas es la gestión del riesgo climático, en donde la utilización de índices de vegetación permite la evaluación de la sequía. En esta investigación, se analiza el impacto de la sequía y se evalúa el potencial de nuevas tecnologías como la teledetección para la gestión del riesgo de sequía en sistemas de ganadería extensiva. Para ello, se desarrollan tres aplicaciones: (i) evaluar el impacto económico de la sequía en una explotación ganadera extensiva de la dehesa de Andalucía, (ii) elaborar mapas de vulnerabilidad a la sequía en pastos de Chile y (iii) diseñar y evaluar el potencial de un seguro indexado para sequía en pastos en la región de Coquimbo en Chile. En la primera aplicación, se diseña un modelo dinámico y estocástico que integra aspectos climáticos, ecológicos, agronómicos y socioeconómicos para evaluar el riesgo de sequía. El modelo simula una explotación ganadera tipo de la dehesa de Andalucía para el período 1999-2010. El método de Análisis Histórico y la simulación de MonteCarlo se utilizan para identificar los principales factores de riesgo de la explotación, entre los que destacan, los periodos de inicios del verano e inicios de invierno. Los resultados muestran la existencia de un desfase temporal entre el riesgo climático y riesgo económico, teniendo este último un periodo de duración más extenso en el tiempo. También, revelan que la intensidad, frecuencia y duración son tres atributos cruciales que determinan el impacto económico de la sequía. La estrategia de reducción de la carga ganadera permite aminorar el riesgo, pero conlleva una disminución en el margen bruto de la explotación. La segunda aplicación está dedicada a la elaboración de mapas de vulnerabilidad a la sequia en pastos de Chile. Para ello, se propone y desarrolla un índice de riesgo económico (IRESP) sencillo de interpretar y replicable, que integra factores de riesgo y estrategias de adaptación para obtener una medida del Valor en Riesgo, es decir, la máxima pérdida esperada en un año con un nivel de significación del 5%.La representación espacial del IRESP pone en evidencia patrones espaciales y diferencias significativas en la vulnerabilidad a la sequía a lo largo de Chile. Además, refleja que la vulnerabilidad no siempre esta correlacionada con el riesgo climático y demuestra la importancia de considerar las estrategias de adaptación. Las medidas de autocorrelación espacial revelan que el riesgo sistémico es considerablemente mayor en el sur que en el resto de zonas. Los resultados demuestran que el IRESP transmite información pertinente y, que los mapas de vulnerabilidad pueden ser una herramienta útil en el diseño de políticas y toma de decisiones para la gestión del riesgo de sequía. La tercera aplicación evalúa el potencial de un seguro indexado para sequía en pastos en la región de Coquimbo en Chile. Para lo cual, se desarrolla un modelo estocástico para estimar la prima actuarialmente justa del seguro y se proponen y evalúan pautas alternativas para mejorar el diseño del contrato. Se aborda el riesgo base, el principal problema de los seguros indexados identificado en la literatura y, que está referido a la correlación imperfecta del índice con las pérdidas de la explotación. Para ello, se sigue un enfoque bayesiano que permite evaluar el impacto en el riesgo base de las pautas de diseño propuestas: i) una zonificación por clúster que considera aspectos espacio-temporales, ii) un período de garantía acotado a los ciclos fenológicos del pasto y iii) umbral de garantía. Los resultados muestran que tanto la zonificación como el periodo de garantía reducen el riesgo base considerablemente. Sin embargo, el umbral de garantía tiene un efecto ambiguo sobre el riesgo base. Por otra parte, la zonificación por clúster contribuye a aminorar el riesgo sistémico que enfrentan las aseguradoras. Estos resultados han puesto de manifiesto que un buen diseño de contrato puede tener un doble dividendo, por un lado aumentar su utilidad y, por otro, reducir el coste del seguro. Un diseño de contrato eficiente junto con los avances en la teledetección y un adecuado marco institucional son los pilares básicos para el buen funcionamiento de un programa de seguro. Las nuevas tecnologías ofrecen un importante potencial para la innovación en la gestión del riesgo climático. Los avances en este campo pueden proporcionar importantes beneficios sociales en los países en desarrollo y regiones vulnerables, donde las herramientas para gestionar eficazmente los riesgos sistémicos como la sequía pueden ser de gran ayuda para el desarrollo. The vulnerability of grazing livestock systems highlights the need for tools to assess and mitigate the adverse impact of drought. The recent and rapid progress in remote sensing has awakened an interest for tapping into potential applications, triggering intensive efforts to develop innovations in a number of spheres. One of these areas is climate risk management, where the use of vegetation indices facilitates assessment of drought. This research analyzes drought impacts and evaluates the potential of new technologies such as remote sensing to manage drought risk in extensive livestock systems. Three essays in drought risk management are developed to: (i) assess the economic impact of drought on a livestock farm in the Andalusian Dehesa, (ii) build drought vulnerability maps in Chilean grazing lands, and (iii) design and evaluate the potential of an index insurance policy to address the risk of drought in grazing lands in Coquimbo, Chile. In the first essay, a dynamic and stochastic farm model is designed combining climate, agronomic, socio-economic and ecological aspects to assess drought risk. The model is developed to simulate a representative livestock farm in the Dehesa of Andalusia for the time period 1999-2010. Burn analysis and MonteCarlo simulation methods are used to identify the significance of various risk sources at the farm. Most notably, early summer and early winter are identified as periods of peak risk. Moreover, there is a significant time lag between climate and economic risk and this later last longer than the former. It is shown that intensity, frequency and duration of the drought are three crucial attributes that shape the economic impact of drought. Sensitivity analysis is conducted to assess the sustainability of farm management strategies and demonstrates that lowering the stocking rate reduces farmer exposure to drought risk but entails a reduction in the expected gross margin. The second essay, mapping drought vulnerability in Chilean grazing lands, proposes and builds an index of economic risk (IRESP) that is replicable and simple to interpret. This methodology integrates risk factors and adaptation strategies to deliver information on Value at Risk, maximum expected losses at 5% significance level. Mapping IRESP provides evidence about spatial patterns and significant differences in drought vulnerability across Chilean grazing lands. Spatial autocorrelation measures reveal that systemic risk is considerably larger in the South as compared to Northern or Central Regions. Furthermore, it is shown that vulnerability is not necessarily correlated with climate risk and that adaptation strategies do matter. These results show that IRESP conveys relevant information and that vulnerability maps may be useful tools to assess policy design and decision-making in drought risk management. The third essay develops a stochastic model to estimate the actuarially fair premium and evaluates the potential of an indexed insurance policy to manage drought risk in Coquimbo, a relevant livestock farming region of Chile. Basis risk refers to the imperfect correlation of the index and farmer loses and is identified in the literature as a main limitation of index insurance. A Bayesian approach is proposed to assess the impact on basis risk of alternative guidelines in contract design: i) A cluster zoning that considers space-time aspects, ii) A guarantee period bounded to fit phenological cycles, and iii) the triggering index threshold. Results show that both the proposed zoning and guarantee period considerably reduces basis risk. However, the triggering index threshold has an ambiguous effect on basis risk. On the other hand, cluster zoning contributes to ameliorate systemic risk faced by the insurer. These results highlighted that adequate contract design is important and may result in double dividend. On the one hand, increasing farmers’ utility and, secondly, reducing the cost of insurance. An efficient contract design coupled with advances in remote sensing and an appropriate institutional framework are the basis for an efficient operation of an insurance program. The new technologies offer significant potential for innovation in climate risk managements. Progress in this field is capturing increasing attention and may provide important social gains in developing countries and vulnerable regions where the tools to efficiently manage systemic risks, such as drought, may be a means to foster development.

Uncertainty Analysis in New Seismic Hazard Study of Spain Aimed at the Revision of the Spanish Building Code.

In this paper we present a global overview of the recent study carried out in Spain for the new hazard map, which final goal is the revision of the Building Code in our country (NCSE-02). The study was carried our for a working group joining experts from The Instituto Geografico Nacional (IGN) and the Technical University of Madrid (UPM) , being the different phases of the work supervised by an expert Committee integrated by national experts from public institutions involved in subject of seismic hazard. The PSHA method (Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment) has been followed, quantifying the epistemic uncertainties through a logic tree and the aleatory ones linked to variability of parameters by means of probability density functions and Monte Carlo simulations. In a first phase, the inputs have been prepared, which essentially are: 1) a project catalogue update and homogenization at Mw 2) proposal of zoning models and source characterization 3) calibration of Ground Motion Prediction Equations (GMPE’s) with actual data and development of a local model with data collected in Spain for Mw < 5.5. In a second phase, a sensitivity analysis of the different input options on hazard results has been carried out in order to have criteria for defining the branches of the logic tree and their weights. Finally, the hazard estimation was done with the logic tree shown in figure 1, including nodes for quantifying uncertainties corresponding to: 1) method for estimation of hazard (zoning and zoneless); 2) zoning models, 3) GMPE combinations used and 4) regression method for estimation of source parameters. In addition, the aleatory uncertainties corresponding to the magnitude of the events, recurrence parameters and maximum magnitude for each zone have been also considered including probability density functions and Monte Carlo simulations The main conclusions of the study are presented here, together with the obtained results in terms of PGA and other spectral accelerations SA (T) for return periods of 475, 975 and 2475 years. The map of the coefficient of variation (COV) are also represented to give an idea of the zones where the dispersion among results are the highest and the zones where the results are robust.

Andrea Branzi y la “Città senza architettura”: De la No-Stop City a los modelos de urbanización débil

El tema de estudio de esta tesis son las propuestas urbanas que Andrea Branzi ha desarrollado durante los últimos cincuenta años, centrándose especialmente en aquellas más elaboradas y completas: la No-Stop City (1970-71), que elabora como miembro del grupo radical Archizoom, y dos de sus modelos de urbanización débil, Agronica (1995) y el Master Plan para el Strijp Philips de Eindhoven (2000). Se trata de una parte de su obra que ha mantenido constante, a lo largo del tiempo, una propuesta de disolución de la arquitectura de notable consistencia que puede describirse con la fórmula “città senza architettura”, acuñada por él mismo. Una voluntad que ya se apunta en la muy variada producción de Archizoom previa a la No-Stop City, y que cristaliza y se hace explícita en este proyecto que aspiraba a: “liberar al hombre de la arquitectura”. A pesar de la continuidad de esta idea en el tiempo, la ciudad sin arquitectura de Branzi ha evolucionado claramente dando lugar a distintos tipos de disolución. Una disolución que, obviamente, no supone la efectiva desaparición de la disciplina, sino la formulación de una arquitectura “otra” basada en un replanteamiento radical de la naturaleza y el papel de la misma. Esta agenda contra la disciplina se ha desplegado a través de una serie de temas que socavan el objeto arquitectónico canónico (su vaciamiento expresivo, la pérdida de importancia de la envolvente y la forma acabada, el carácter anticompositivo, la independencia entre forma y función, la mutabilidad en el tiempo…), pero va más allá al poner en crisis el rol que la propia arquitectura ha tenido en la configuración material, política y simbólica del hábitat humano. Una pérdida de protagonismo y centralidad en la sociedad contemporánea que, en el discurso del arquitecto, implica necesariamente un papel subordinado. De este proceso de disolución surge un nuevo tipo de ciudad en la que la forma urbana o se ha perdido o se ha convertido en superflua, en la que se ha disuelto la zonificación funcional, cuyos espacios interiores se hallan en un proceso de permanente reprogramación que ignora las tipologías, que trasciende la división entre lo urbano y lo agrícola y que es, ante todo, un espacio de flujos y servicios. La crisis de la ciudad tradicional implica, en definitiva, un cambio en la naturaleza misma de lo urbano que pasa de considerarse un lugar físico y construido, a convertirse en una condición inmaterial y virtualmente omnipresente que se despliega independientemente de su soporte físico. En las investigaciones urbanas de Branzi convergen, además, muchas de las reflexiones que el arquitecto ha desarrollado sobre, y desde, las distintas “escalas” de la actividad profesional: diseño, arquitectura y urbanismo. Estas propuestas no sólo cuestionan las relaciones establecidas entre objetos, edificios, ciudades y territorios sino que ponen en cuestión estas mismas categorías. Unas ciudades sin arquitectura que se basan, en última instancia, en plantear preguntas que son muy sencillas y, por otra parte, eternas: ¿Qué es un edificio? ¿Qué es una ciudad? ABSTRACT The subject of study of this thesis are the urban proposals developed by Andrea Branzi over the last fifty years, with a special focus on the more developed and comprehensive ones: the No- Stop City (1970-1971), produced as a member of the architettura radicale group Archizoom, and two of his “weak urbanization models”: Agronica (1995) and the Master Plan for Philips Strijp in Eindhoven (2000). This area of his work has kept, over time, a remarkably consistent proposal for the dissolution of architecture that can be described with the motto città senza architettura (city without architecture), coined by himself. A determination, already latent in the very diverse production of Archizoom prior to No-Stop City, that crystallizes and becomes explicit in this project which was aimed to "liberate man from the architecture." Despite the continuity of this idea over time, Branzi’s city without architecture has clearly evolved leading to different types of dissolution. A dissolution that, obviously, does not mean the effective demise of the discipline, but rather, the formulation of an architecture autre based on a radical rethinking of its nature and role. This agenda against the discipline has been developed through a number of issues that undermine the canonical architectural object (its expressive emptying, the loss of importance of the envelope and the finished shape, the anticompositional character, the independence between form and function, the mutability over time...), but goes beyond it by putting into crisis the role that architecture itself has had in the material, political and symbolic configuration of the human habitat. A loss of prominence and centrality in contemporary society that, in the architect’s discourse, implies a subordinate role. From this dissolution process, a new type of city arises: a city where urban form has been lost or has become superfluous, in which functional zoning has dissolved, whose interiors are in a permanent process of reprogramming that ignores typologies, that transcends the division between urban and agricultural and becomes, above all, a space of flows and services. Ultimately, the crisis of the traditional city implies a change in the very nature of the urban that moves from being regarded as a physical and built place, to become an immaterial and virtually omnipresent condition that unfolds regardless of its physical medium. Many of the ideas Branzi has developed on, and from, the different "scales" of professional activity (design, architecture and urbanism) converge in his urban research. These proposals not only question the relations between objects, buildings, cities and territories but also these very categories. Cities without architecture that are based, ultimately, on raising simple questions that are, on the other hand, eternal: What is a building? What is a city?

Spatial divisions of society

The encounter of architecture and urbanism with parcelisation is marked with the sign of a historical debt. Parcelisation is a tremendously powerful design tool. Architecture and urban planning attest to its capacity to shape sociospatial relations across a range of scales and contexts. From Renaissance palazzi to modernist slabs, from nation-wide agrarian reforms and Haussmann’s Paris to Christopher Alexander’s new theory of urban design and Michael Webb’s Suitaloon — most of the historical revolutions and experimental projects that have shaken these fields have relied, consciously or not, on a critique and restructuration of inherited divisions of land and space. The layout of parcel patterns has a series of implications including forms of property, the divide between private and public realms, the distribution of spatial contents and uses through zoning, typological decisions and so forth. The behaviour of any urban structure depends on the tissue of plots that configures the urban fabric and many of the challenges urban design faces today —complexity, urban vitality, social equality, etc.— hinge upon the forms of land division and distribution we adopt.

Modelización de las fallas activas para la estimación de la Peligrosidad Sísmica. Aplicación Metodológica en Haití

The development of this Master's Thesis is aimed at modeling active for estimating seismic hazard in Haití failures. It has been used zoned probabilistic method, both classical and hybrid, considering the incorporation of active faults as independent units in the calculation of seismic hazard. In this case, the rate of seismic moment is divided between the failures and the area seismogenetic same region. Failures included in this study are the Septentrional, Matheux and Enriquillo fault. We compared the results obtained by both methods to determine the importance of considering the faults in the calculation. In the first instance, updating the seismic catalog, homogenization, completeness analysis and purification was necessary to obtain a catalog ready to proceed to the estimation of the hazard. With the seismogenic zoning defined in previous studies and the updated seismic catalog, they are obtained relations Gutenberg-Richter recurrence of seismicity, superficial and deep in each area. Selected attenuation models were those used in (Benito et al., 2011), as the tectonic area of study is very similar to that of Central America. Its implementation has been through the development of a logical in which each branch is multiplied by an index based on the relevance of each combination of models. Results are presented as seismic hazard maps for return periods of 475, 975 and 2475 years, and spectral acceleration (SA) in structural periods: 0.1 - 0.2 - 0.5 - 1.0 and 2.0 seconds, and the difference accelerations between maps obtained by the classical method and the hybrid method. Maps realize the importance of including faults as separate items in the calculation of the hazard. The morphology of the zoned maps presented higher values in the area where the superficial and deep zone overlap. In the results it can determine that the minimum values in the zoned approach they outweigh the hybrid method, especially in areas where there are no faults. Higher values correspond to those obtained in fault zones by the hybrid method understanding that the contribution of the faults in this method is very important with high values. The maximum value of PGA obtained is close to Septentrional in 963gal, near to 460 gal in Matheux, and the Enriquillo fault line value reaches 760gal PGA in the Eastern segment and Western 730gal in the segment. This compares with that obtained in the zoned approach in this area where the value of PGA obtained was 240gal. These values are compared with those obtained by Frankel et al., (2011) with those have much similarity in values and morphology, in contrast to those presented by Benito et al., (2012) and the Standard Seismic Dominican Republic

Modelo de gestión de un embalse en tiempo real durante avenidas basado en redes bayesianas entrenadas con el método de optimización PLEM

En la actualidad, la gestión de embalses para el control de avenidas se realiza, comúnmente, utilizando modelos de simulación. Esto se debe, principalmente, a su facilidad de uso en tiempo real por parte del operador de la presa. Se han desarrollado modelos de optimización de la gestión del embalse que, aunque mejoran los resultados de los modelos de simulación, su aplicación en tiempo real se hace muy difícil o simplemente inviable, pues está limitada al conocimiento de la avenida futura que entra al embalse antes de tomar la decisión de vertido. Por esta razón, se ha planteado el objetivo de desarrollar un modelo de gestión de embalses en avenidas que incorpore las ventajas de un modelo de optimización y que sea de fácil uso en tiempo real por parte del gestor de la presa. Para ello, se construyó un modelo de red Bayesiana que representa los procesos de la cuenca vertiente y del embalse y, que aprende de casos generados sintéticamente mediante un modelo hidrológico agregado y un modelo de optimización de la gestión del embalse. En una primera etapa, se generó un gran número de episodios sintéticos de avenida utilizando el método de Monte Carlo, para obtener las lluvias, y un modelo agregado compuesto de transformación lluvia- escorrentía, para obtener los hidrogramas de avenida. Posteriormente, se utilizaron las series obtenidas como señales de entrada al modelo de gestión de embalses PLEM, que optimiza una función objetivo de costes mediante programación lineal entera mixta, generando igual número de eventos óptimos de caudal vertido y de evolución de niveles en el embalse. Los episodios simulados fueron usados para entrenar y evaluar dos modelos de red Bayesiana, uno que pronostica el caudal de entrada al embalse, y otro que predice el caudal vertido, ambos en un horizonte de tiempo que va desde una a cinco horas, en intervalos de una hora. En el caso de la red Bayesiana hidrológica, el caudal de entrada que se elige es el promedio de la distribución de probabilidad de pronóstico. En el caso de la red Bayesiana hidráulica, debido al comportamiento marcadamente no lineal de este proceso y a que la red Bayesiana devuelve un rango de posibles valores de caudal vertido, se ha desarrollado una metodología para seleccionar un único valor, que facilite el trabajo del operador de la presa. Esta metodología consiste en probar diversas estrategias propuestas, que incluyen zonificaciones y alternativas de selección de un único valor de caudal vertido en cada zonificación, a un conjunto suficiente de episodios sintéticos. Los resultados de cada estrategia se compararon con el método MEV, seleccionándose las estrategias que mejoran los resultados del MEV, en cuanto al caudal máximo vertido y el nivel máximo alcanzado por el embalse, cualquiera de las cuales puede usarse por el operador de la presa en tiempo real para el embalse de estudio (Talave). La metodología propuesta podría aplicarse a cualquier embalse aislado y, de esta manera, obtener, para ese embalse particular, diversas estrategias que mejoran los resultados del MEV. Finalmente, a modo de ejemplo, se ha aplicado la metodología a una avenida sintética, obteniendo el caudal vertido y el nivel del embalse en cada intervalo de tiempo, y se ha aplicado el modelo MIGEL para obtener en cada instante la configuración de apertura de los órganos de desagüe que evacuarán el caudal. Currently, the dam operator for the management of dams uses simulation models during flood events, mainly due to its ease of use in real time. Some models have been developed to optimize the management of the reservoir to improve the results of simulation models. However, real-time application becomes very difficult or simply unworkable, because the decision to discharge depends on the unknown future avenue entering the reservoir. For this reason, the main goal is to develop a model of reservoir management at avenues that incorporates the advantages of an optimization model. At the same time, it should be easy to use in real-time by the dam manager. For this purpose, a Bayesian network model has been developed to represent the processes of the watershed and reservoir. This model learns from cases generated synthetically by a hydrological model and an optimization model for managing the reservoir. In a first stage, a large number of synthetic flood events was generated using the Monte Carlo method, for rain, and rain-added processing model composed of runoff for the flood hydrographs. Subsequently, the series obtained were used as input signals to the reservoir management model PLEM that optimizes a target cost function using mixed integer linear programming. As a result, many optimal discharge rate events and water levels in the reservoir levels were generated. The simulated events were used to train and test two models of Bayesian network. The first one predicts the flow into the reservoir, and the second predicts the discharge flow. They work in a time horizon ranging from one to five hours, in intervals of an hour. In the case of hydrological Bayesian network, the chosen inflow is the average of the probability distribution forecast. In the case of hydraulic Bayesian network the highly non-linear behavior of this process results on a range of possible values of discharge flow. A methodology to select a single value has been developed to facilitate the dam operator work. This methodology tests various strategies proposed. They include zoning and alternative selection of a single value in each discharge rate zoning from a sufficient set of synthetic episodes. The results of each strategy are compared with the MEV method. The strategies that improve the outcomes of MEV are selected and can be used by the dam operator in real time applied to the reservoir study case (Talave). The methodology could be applied to any single reservoir and, thus, obtain, for the particular reservoir, various strategies that improve results from MEV. Finally, the methodology has been applied to a synthetic flood, obtaining the discharge flow and the reservoir level in each time interval. The open configuration floodgates to evacuate the flow at each interval have been obtained applying the MIGEL model.