Predicting species distribution: offering more than simple habitat models

n the last two decades, interest in species distribution models (SDMs) of plants and animals has grown dramatically. Recent advances in SDMs allow us to potentially forecast anthropogenic effects on patterns of biodiversity at different spatial scales. However, some limitations still preclude the use of SDMs in many theoretical and practical applications. Here, we provide an overview of recent advances in this field, discuss the ecological principles and assumptions underpinning SDMs, and highlight critical limitations and decisions inherent in the construction and evaluation of SDMs. Particular emphasis is given to the use of SDMs for the assessment of climate change impacts and conservation management issues. We suggest new avenues for incorporating species migration, population dynamics, biotic interactions and community ecology into SDMs at multiple spatial scales. Addressing all these issues requires a better integration of SDMs with ecological theory.

Predictive value of the MGMT promoter methylation status in metastatic melanoma patients receiving first-line temozolomide plus bevacizumab in the trial SAKK 50/07.

The O6-methylguanine-DNA-methyltransferase (MGMT) promoter methylation status is a predictive parameter for the response of malignant gliomas to alkylating agents such as temozolomide. First clinical trials with temozolomide plus bevacizumab therapy in metastatic melanoma patients are ongoing, although the predictive value of the MGMT promoter methylation status in this setting remains unclear. We assessed MGMT promoter methylation in formalin-fixed, primary tumor tissue of metastatic melanoma patients treated with first-line temozolomide and bevacizumab from the trial SAKK 50/07 by methylation-specific polymerase chain reaction. In addition, the MGMT expression levels were also analyzed by MGMT immunohistochemistry. Eleven of 42 primary melanomas (26%) revealed a methylated MGMT promoter. Promoter methylation was significantly associated with response rates CR + PR versus SD + PD according to RECIST (response evaluation criteria in solid tumors) (p<0.05) with a trend to prolonged median progression-free survival (8.1 versus 3.4 months, p>0.05). Immunohistochemically different protein expression patterns with heterogeneous and homogeneous nuclear MGMT expression were identified. Negative MGMT expression levels were associated with overall disease stabilization CR+PR+SD versus PD (p=0.05). There was only a poor correlation between MGMT methylation and lack of MGMT expression. A significant proportion of melanomas have a methylated MGMT promoter. The MGMT promoter methylation status may be a promising predictive marker for temozolomide therapy in metastatic melanoma patients. Larger sample sizes may help to validate significant differences in survival type endpoints.

Positional information by differential endocytosis splits auxin response to drive Arabidopsis root meristem growth.

In the Arabidopsis root meristem, polar auxin transport creates a transcriptional auxin response gradient that peaks at the stem cell niche and gradually decreases as stem cell daughters divide and differentiate [1-3]. The amplitude and extent of this gradient are essential for both stem cell maintenance and root meristem growth [4, 5]. To investigate why expression of some auxin-responsive genes, such as the essential root meristem growth regulator BREVIS RADIX (BRX) [6], deviates from this gradient, we combined experimental and computational approaches. We created cellular-level root meristem models that accurately reproduce distribution of nuclear auxin activity and allow dynamic modeling of regulatory processes to guide experimentation. Expression profiles deviating from the auxin gradient could only be modeled after intersection of auxin activity with the observed differential endocytosis pattern and positive autoregulatory feedback through plasma-membrane-to-nucleus transfer of BRX. Because BRX is required for expression of certain auxin response factor targets, our data suggest a cell-type-specific endocytosis-dependent input into transcriptional auxin perception. This input sustains expression of a subset of auxin-responsive genes across the root meristem's division and transition zones and is essential for meristem growth. Thus, the endocytosis pattern provides specific positional information to modulate auxin response.

The role of climatic tolerances and seed traits in reduced extinction rates of temperate polygonaceae.

The latitudinal diversity gradient (LDG) is one of the most striking and consistent biodiversity patterns across taxonomic groups. We investigate the species richness gradient in the buckwheat family, Polygonaceae, which exhibits a reverse LDG and is, thus, decoupled from dominant gradients of energy and environmental stability that increase toward the tropics and confound mechanistic interpretations. We test competing age and evolutionary diversification hypotheses, which may explain the diversification of this plant family over the past 70 million years. Our analyses show that the age hypothesis, which posits that clade richness is positively correlated with the ecological and evolutionary time since clade origin, fails to explain the richness gradient observed in Polygonaceae. However, an evolutionary diversification hypothesis is highly supported, with diversification rates being 3.5 times higher in temperate clades compared to tropical clades. We demonstrate that differences in rates of speciation, migration, and molecular evolution insufficiently explain the observed patterns of differential diversification rates. We suggest that reduced extinction rates in temperate clades may be associated with adaptive responses to selection, through which seed morphology and climatic tolerances potentially act to minimize risk in temporally variable environments. Further study is needed to understand causal pathways among these traits and factors correlated with latitude.

An evolutionary model explaining the Neolithic transition from egalitarianism to leadership and despotism.

The Neolithic was marked by a transition from small and relatively egalitarian groups to much larger groups with increased stratification. But, the dynamics of this remain poorly understood. It is hard to see how despotism can arise without coercion, yet coercion could not easily have occurred in an egalitarian setting. Using a quantitative model of evolution in a patch-structured population, we demonstrate that the interaction between demographic and ecological factors can overcome this conundrum. We model the coevolution of individual preferences for hierarchy alongside the degree of despotism of leaders, and the dispersal preferences of followers. We show that voluntary leadership without coercion can evolve in small groups, when leaders help to solve coordination problems related to resource production. An example is coordinating construction of an irrigation system. Our model predicts that the transition to larger despotic groups will then occur when: (i) surplus resources lead to demographic expansion of groups, removing the viability of an acephalous niche in the same area and so locking individuals into hierarchy; (ii) high dispersal costs limit followers' ability to escape a despot. Empirical evidence suggests that these conditions were probably met, for the first time, during the subsistence intensification of the Neolithic.

Coexistence of specialist and generalist species is shaped by dispersal and environmental factors.

Disentangling the mechanisms mediating the coexistence of habitat specialists and generalists has been a long-standing subject of investigation. However, the roles of species traits and environmental and spatial factors have not been assessed in a unifying theoretical framework. Theory suggests that specialist species are more competitive in natural communities. However, empirical work has shown that specialist species are declining worldwide due to habitat loss and fragmentation. We addressed the question of the coexistence of specialist and generalist species with a spatially explicit metacommunity model in continuous and heterogeneous environments. We characterized how species' dispersal abilities, the number of interacting species, environmental spatial autocorrelation, and disturbance impact community composition. Our results demonstrated that species' dispersal ability and the number of interacting species had a drastic influence on the composition of metacommunities. More specialized species coexisted when species had large dispersal abilities and when the number of interacting species was high. Disturbance selected against highly specialized species, whereas environmental spatial autocorrelation had a marginal impact. Interestingly, species richness and niche breadth were mainly positively correlated at the community scale but were negatively correlated at the metacommunity scale. Numerous diversely specialized species can thus coexist, but both species' intrinsic traits and environmental factors interact to shape the specialization signatures of communities at both the local and global scales.

Projecte de legalització d'una activitat dedicada a l'explotació ramadera i a la formatgeria artesanal

La integració en una mateixa activitat d'una explotació ramadera ecològica basada en el bestiar cabrú de llet i d'una formatgeria artesanal basada en varietats autòctones de formatge de cabra, permet ocupar un nínxol de mercat encara poc explotat actualment a Catalunya. D'igual manera, la dificultat que tenen actualment molts dels formatgers artesans del país per trobar llet de cabra en quantitats suficients i amb unes mínimes garanties higiènico-sanitàries dificulten l'avanç d'un sector amb molt bones perspectives de futur com és el de la formatgeria artesanal i justifica la necessitat de crear noves explotacions (o reconvertir-ne de ja existents) orientant-les de ple vers l'aprofitament lleter del bestiar cabrú, que és actualment molt reduït en l'àmbit Català. A més d'això, les actuals exigències en el camp del benestar animal així com en el camp de la qualitat i de la seguretat alimentaria, exigeixen a les explotacions ramaderes i a les indústries alimentàries el compliment d'una sèrie de requisits, tan de disseny dels locals i de les instal•lacions, com de control de les activitats i dels productes elaborats, que garanteixin en tot moment la seva correcte gestió i funcionament en aquestes matèries. L'objectiu d'aquest projecte, doncs, és la legalització d'una activitat, que anomenarem “Mas Peirot, S.L.”, dedicada a l'explotació ramadera ecològica de bestiar cabrú de llet i a la formatgeria artesanal de formatge de cabra. És important mencionar que tot i tractar-se d'un projecte de legalització d'una activitat,, també s'hi han contemplat aspectes i detalls relacionats amb l'execució de la mateixa, al tractar-se d'unes obres d'una certa complexitat i considerant que així es tracten amb més detall i rigorositat les actuacions projectades. En concret, en aquest projecte es planifiquen les operacions de rehabilitació de dues naus ramaderes actualment en desús, per tal que puguin destinar-se a l'explotació ramadera de bestiar cabrú i a la formatgeria artesanal, projectant-se així mateix totes les instal•lacions necessàries per tal que a les mencionades naus s'hi puguin desenvolupar les activitats citades. Com a conclusions més importants d'aquest projecte podem dir que amb un cens de 100 caps de bestiar cabrú és possible obtenir una producció mitjana de llet de 32.500 litres anuals, que es corresponen a un volum total de 3.823 quilograms de formatge a l'any (de les tipologies Formatge Garrotxa i Formatge de cabra amb oli, ambdues varietats tradicionals catalanes) obtenint un benefici de 21.389,47 Euros/any durant els primers 15 anys i un benefici de 33.386,39 Euros/any a partir del 16è any, cosa que permetrà recuperar la inversió inicial de 172.716,76 Euros que valen les naus i instal•lacions projectades, en un termini de 8 anys i permetrà, com s'ha dit, ocupar un nínxol de mercat encara poc explotat per la indústria agroalimentària a Catalunya.

Ecological assembly rules in plant communities--approaches, patterns and prospects.

Understanding how communities of living organisms assemble has been a central question in ecology since the early days of the discipline. Disentangling the different processes involved in community assembly is not only interesting in itself but also crucial for an understanding of how communities will behave under future environmental scenarios. The traditional concept of assembly rules reflects the notion that species do not co-occur randomly but are restricted in their co-occurrence by interspecific competition. This concept can be redefined in a more general framework where the co-occurrence of species is a product of chance, historical patterns of speciation and migration, dispersal, abiotic environmental factors, and biotic interactions, with none of these processes being mutually exclusive. Here we present a survey and meta-analyses of 59 papers that compare observed patterns in plant communities with null models simulating random patterns of species assembly. According to the type of data under study and the different methods that are applied to detect community assembly, we distinguish four main types of approach in the published literature: species co-occurrence, niche limitation, guild proportionality and limiting similarity. Results from our meta-analyses suggest that non-random co-occurrence of plant species is not a widespread phenomenon. However, whether this finding reflects the individualistic nature of plant communities or is caused by methodological shortcomings associated with the studies considered cannot be discerned from the available metadata. We advocate that more thorough surveys be conducted using a set of standardized methods to test for the existence of assembly rules in data sets spanning larger biological and geographical scales than have been considered until now. We underpin this general advice with guidelines that should be considered in future assembly rules research. This will enable us to draw more accurate and general conclusions about the non-random aspect of assembly in plant communities.

Adaptation to marginal habitats

The ability to adapt to marginal habitats, in which survival and reproduction are initially poor, plays a crucial role in the evolution of ecological niches and species ranges. Adaptation to marginal habitats may be limited by genetic, developmental, and functional constraints, but also by consequences of demographic characteristics of marginal populations. Marginal populations are often sparse, fragmented, prone to local extinctions, or are demographic sinks subject to high immigration from high-quality core habitats. This makes them demographically and genetically dependent on core habitats and prone to gene flow counteracting local selection. Theoretical and empirical research in the past decade has advanced our understanding of conditions that favor adaptation to marginal habitats despite those limitations. This review is an attempt at synthesis of those developments and of the emerging conceptual framework.

Prophylactic use of bevacizumab to avoid anterior segment neovascularization following proton therapy for uveal melanoma.

PURPOSE: To investigate whether the prophylactic use of bevacizumab reduces the rate of rubeosis after proton therapy for uveal melanoma and improves the possibility to treat ischemic, reapplicated retina with laser photocoagulation. DESIGN: Comparative retrospective case series. METHODS: Uveal melanoma patients with ischemic retinal detachment and treated with proton therapy were included in this institutional study. Twenty-four eyes received prophylactic intravitreal bevacizumab injections and were compared with a control group of 44 eyes without bevacizumab treatment. Bevacizumab injections were performed at the time of tantalum clip insertion and were repeated every 2 months during 6 months, and every 3 months thereafter. Ultra-widefield angiography allowed determination of the extent of retinal ischemia, which was treated with laser photocoagulation after retinal reapplication. Main outcome measures were the time to rubeosis, the time to retinal reattachment, and the time to laser photocoagulation of ischemic retina. RESULTS: Baseline characteristics were balanced between the groups, except for thicker tumors and larger retinal detachments in the bevacizumab group, potentially to the disadvantage of the study group. Nevertheless, bevacizumab prophylaxis significantly reduced the rate of iris rubeosis from 36% to 4% (log-rank test P = .02) and tended to shorten the time to retinal reapplication until laser photocoagulation of the nonperfusion areas could be performed. CONCLUSIONS: Prophylactic intravitreal bevacizumab in patients treated with proton therapy for uveal melanoma with ischemic retinal detachment prevented anterior segment neovascularization, until laser photocoagulation to the reapplied retina could be performed.

MIGCLIM: Predicting plant distribution and dispersal in a changing climate

Many studies have forecasted the possible impact of climate change on plant distribution using models based on ecological niche theory. In their basic implementation, niche-based models do not constrain predictions by dispersal limitations. Hence, most niche-based modelling studies published so far have assumed dispersal to be either unlimited or null. However, depending on the rate of climatic change, the landscape fragmentation and the dispersal capabilities of individual species, these assumptions are likely to prove inaccurate, leading to under- or overestimation of future species distributions and yielding large uncertainty between these two extremes. As a result, the concepts of "potentially suitable" and "potentially colonisable" habitat are expected to differ significantly. To quantify to what extent these two concepts can differ, we developed MIGCLIM, a model simulating plant dispersal under climate change and landscape fragmentation scenarios. MIGCLIM implements various parameters, such as dispersal distance, increase in reproductive potential over time, barriers to dispersal or long distance dispersal. Several simulations were run for two virtual species in a study area of the western Swiss Alps, by varying dispersal distance and other parameters. Each simulation covered the hundred-year period 2001-2100 and three different IPCC-based temperature warming scenarios were considered. Our results indicate that: (i) using realistic parameter values, the future potential distributions generated using MIGCLIM can differ significantly (up to more than 95% decrease in colonized surface) from those that ignore dispersal; (ii) this divergence increases both with increasing climate warming and over longer time periods; (iii) the uncertainty associated with the warming scenario can be nearly as large as the one related to dispersal parameters; (iv) accounting for dispersal, even roughly, can importantly reduce uncertainty in projections.

La figura del consultor a empreses del sector tecnològic: oportunitats d'ocupació per als titulats en BiD

The article offers an extrapolation based on the author's own experience, describing the main characteristics of projects undertaken by companies in the technological sector and the typical functions performed by consultants in this area. The principal objective is to introduce the profile of consultant as a potential employment niche for those graduates in Library and Information Science who would like to specialise in this area, once having acquired the complementary training that is needed

Differences in diet between the two largest breeding colonies of Audouin's gulls: the effects of fishery activities

We analysed and compared the diet of Audouin´s gulls Larus audouinii between their two largest breeding sites in the world: the Ebro Delta and the Chafarinas Islands (western Mediterranean). These two localities showed marked differences in the features of the commercial fishing fleet: in the Ebro Delta area a large fishing fleet produced large amounts of discards, while in the Chafarinas the fleet discarded smaller amounts of fish and marine invertebrates, due to the smaller number of vessels. It is also likely that the percentage of discards from total catches is also lower around the Chafarinas than at the Ebro Delta. We distinguished two types of fishing to compare diet compositions: diurnal (only trawling activity) and diurnal and nocturnal (trawling and purse-seine activity, respectively). We also differentiated regurgitates from young nestlings (up to 20 days old) and from older nestlings or adult birds. At the two localities, fish was the main food of Audouin´s gulls, with epipelagic prey (mainly clupeoids) being more important when both diurnal and nocturnal fisheries were operating. This confirms that epipelagic prey either caught actively by the gulls or linked to fisheries was particularly important in the feeding habits of Audouin´s gulls. Nevertheless, differences between the two colonies appear mainly when only trawlers operated: while at the Ebro Delta gulls showed higher consumption of benthic-mesopelagic prey (probably linked to a higher trawler discard availability), gulls from the Chafarinas Islands consumed higher biomass of epipelagic prey probably caught actively at night. When both fleets operated around the two colonies, the average biomass of prey in a regurgitate of younger chicks was significantly higher at the Ebro Delta than at Chafarinas, and the opposite trend was recorded for older nestlings and adults. Niche width was broader in Chafarinas than in the Ebro Delta for both age classes and for any fishing fleet schedule, suggesting again that the exploitation of discards was higher at the Ebro Delta than at the Chafarinas, where gulls showed a more varied diet. Despite the fact that availability of discards was probably higher at the Ebro Delta than at Chafarinas, the per capita availability was not so different at both localities due to the increasing seabird community population at the Ebro Delta, which ca. doubled that at Chafarinas in the last decade.

Postglacial recolonization at a snail's pace (Trochulus villosus): confronting competing refugia hypotheses using model selection.

The localization of Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) refugia is crucial information to understand a species' history and predict its reaction to future climate changes. However, many phylogeographical studies often lack sampling designs intensive enough to precisely localize these refugia. The hairy land snail Trochulus villosus has a small range centred on Switzerland, which could be intensively covered by sampling 455 individuals from 52 populations. Based on mitochondrial DNA sequences (COI and 16S), we identified two divergent lineages with distinct geographical distributions. Bayesian skyline plots suggested that both lineages expanded at the end of the LGM. To find where the origin populations were located, we applied the principles of ancestral character reconstruction and identified a candidate refugium for each mtDNA lineage: the French Jura and Central Switzerland, both ice-free during the LGM. Additional refugia, however, could not be excluded, as suggested by the microsatellite analysis of a population subset. Modelling the LGM niche of T. villosus, we showed that suitable climatic conditions were expected in the inferred refugia, but potentially also in the nunataks of the alpine ice shield. In a model selection approach, we compared several alternative recolonization scenarios by estimating the Akaike information criterion for their respective maximum-likelihood migration rates. The 'two refugia' scenario received by far the best support given the distribution of genetic diversity in T. villosus populations. Provided that fine-scale sampling designs and various analytical approaches are combined, it is possible to refine our necessary understanding of species responses to environmental changes.

Le cancer du sein sans envahissement ganglionnaire. Au-delà des consensus internationaux: une approche pragmatique [Node negative breast cancer. Beyond international consensus: a pragmatic approach].

Apart from therapeutic advances related to new treatments, our practices in the management of early breast cancer have been modified by to key organizational settings (1) mass screening, substantially altering the presentation and epidemiology of breast cancer and (2) the development of guidelines to ensure that any patient management is in agreement with the demonstrated impact in the adjuvant treatment. In daily practice, the impact of screening and guidelines recommendations has put us now in a paradoxical situation: while the majority of non-metastatic breast cancers treated in the hexagon are node negative, most of the results of clinical studies on chemotherapy and targeted therapies today arise from populations predominantly node positive. Therefore, it seemed legitimate to convene a working group around a reflection on the directions of adjuvant chemotherapy in a growing node negative population in order to better respond to the questions of the field oncologists, trying to address the discrepancies between different existing guidelines.