Projecting the impact of climate change on dengue transmission in Dhaka, Bangladesh

Weather variables, mainly temperature and humidity influence vectors, viruses, human biology, ecology and consequently the intensity and distribution of the vector-borne diseases. There is evidence that warmer temperature due to climate change will influence the dengue transmission. However, long term scenario-based projections are yet to be developed. Here, we assessed the impact of weather variability on dengue transmission in a megacity of Dhaka, Bangladesh and projected the future dengue risk attributable to climate change. Our results show that weather variables particularly temperature and humidity were positively associated with dengue transmission. The effects of weather variables were observed at a lag of four months. We projected that assuming a temperature increase of 3.3 °C without any adaptation measure and changes in socio-economic condition, there will be a projected increase of 16,030 dengue cases in Dhaka by the end of this century. This information might be helpful for the public health authorities to prepare for the likely increase of dengue due to climate change. The modelling framework used in this study may be applicable to dengue projection in other cities.

The CLIMATE schools combined study : a cluster randomised controlled trial of a universal Internet-based prevention program for youth substance misuse, depression and anxiety

Background Anxiety, depressive and substance use disorders account for three quarters of the disability attributed to mental disorders and frequently co-occur. While programs for the prevention and reduction of symptoms associated with (i) substance use and (ii) mental health disorders exist, research is yet to determine if a combined approach is more effective. This paper describes the study protocol of a cluster randomised controlled trial to evaluate the effectiveness of the CLIMATE Schools Combined intervention, a universal approach to preventing substance use and mental health problems among adolescents. Methods/design Participants will consist of approximately 8400 students aged 13 to 14-years-old from 84 secondary schools in New South Wales, Western Australia and Queensland, Australia. The schools will be cluster randomised to one of four groups; (i) CLIMATE Schools Combined intervention; (ii) CLIMATE Schools - Substance Use; (iii) CLIMATE Schools - Mental Health, or (iv) Control (Health and Physical Education as usual). The primary outcomes of the trial will be the uptake and harmful use of alcohol and other drugs, mental health symptomatology and anxiety, depression and substance use knowledge. Secondary outcomes include substance use related harms, self-efficacy to resist peer pressure, general disability, and truancy. The link between personality and substance use will also be examined. Discussion Compared to students who receive the universal CLIMATE Schools - Substance Use, or CLIMATE Schools - Mental Health or the Control condition (who received usual Health and Physical Education), we expect students who receive the CLIMATE Schools Combined intervention to show greater delays to the initiation of substance use, reductions in substance use and mental health symptoms, and increased substance use and mental health knowledge

Perceptions of climate change and trust in information providers in rural Australia

Disagreement within the global science community about the certainty and causes of climate change has led the general public to question what to believe and who to trust on matters related to this issue. This paper reports on qualitative research undertaken with Australian residents from two rural areas to explore their perceptions of climate change and trust in information providers. While overall, residents tended to agree that climate change is a reality, perceptions varied in terms of its causes and how best to address it. Politicians, government, and the media were described as untrustworthy sources of information about climate change, with independent scientists being the most trusted. The vested interests of information providers appeared to be a key reason for their distrust. The findings highlight the importance of improved transparency and consultation with the public when communicating information about climate change and related policies.

Impact of climate variability on Plasmodium vivax and Plasmodium falciparum malaria in Yunnan Province, China

BACKGROUND Malaria remains a public health problem in the remote and poor area of Yunnan Province, China. Yunnan faces an increasing risk of imported malaria infections from Mekong river neighboring countries. This study aimed to identify the high risk area of malaria transmission in Yunnan Province, and to estimate the effects of climatic variability on the transmission of Plasmodium vivax and Plasmodium falciparum in the identified area. METHODS We identified spatial clusters of malaria cases using spatial cluster analysis at a county level in Yunnan Province, 2005-2010, and estimated the weekly effects of climatic factors on P. vivax and P. falciparum based on a dataset of daily malaria cases and climatic variables. A distributed lag nonlinear model was used to estimate the impact of temperature, relative humidity and rainfall up to 10-week lags on both types of malaria parasite after adjusting for seasonal and long-term effects. RESULTS The primary cluster area was identified along the China-Myanmar border in western Yunnan. A 1°C increase in minimum temperature was associated with a lag 4 to 9 weeks relative risk (RR), with the highest effect at lag 7 weeks for P. vivax (RR = 1.03; 95% CI, 1.01, 1.05) and 6 weeks for P. falciparum (RR = 1.07; 95% CI, 1.04, 1.11); a 10-mm increment in rainfall was associated with RRs of lags 2-4 weeks and 9-10 weeks, with the highest effect at 3 weeks for both P. vivax (RR = 1.03; 95% CI, 1.01, 1.04) and P. falciparum (RR = 1.04; 95% CI, 1.01, 1.06); and the RRs with a 10% rise in relative humidity were significant from lag 3 to 8 weeks with the highest RR of 1.24 (95% CI, 1.10, 1.41) for P. vivax at 5-week lag. CONCLUSIONS Our findings suggest that the China-Myanmar border is a high risk area for malaria transmission. Climatic factors appeared to be among major determinants of malaria transmission in this area. The estimated lag effects for the association between temperature and malaria are consistent with the life cycles of both mosquito vector and malaria parasite. These findings will be useful for malaria surveillance-response systems in the Mekong river region.

Forecasting the future risk of Barmah Forest Virus disease under climate change scenarios in Queensland, Australia

BACKGROUND Mosquito-borne diseases are climate sensitive and there has been increasing concern over the impact of climate change on future disease risk. This paper projected the potential future risk of Barmah Forest virus (BFV) disease under climate change scenarios in Queensland, Australia. METHODS/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS We obtained data on notified BFV cases, climate (maximum and minimum temperature and rainfall), socio-economic and tidal conditions for current period 2000-2008 for coastal regions in Queensland. Grid-data on future climate projections for 2025, 2050 and 2100 were also obtained. Logistic regression models were built to forecast the otential risk of BFV disease distribution under existing climatic, socio-economic and tidal conditions. The model was applied to estimate the potential geographic distribution of BFV outbreaks under climate change scenarios. The predictive model had good model accuracy, sensitivity and specificity. Maps on potential risk of future BFV disease indicated that disease would vary significantly across coastal regions in Queensland by 2100 due to marked differences in future rainfall and temperature projections. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE We conclude that the results of this study demonstrate that the future risk of BFV disease would vary across coastal regions in Queensland. These results may be helpful for public health decision making towards developing effective risk management strategies for BFV disease control and prevention programs in Queensland.

Knowledge, attitudes and practices to reduce exposure among residents living near Danang dioxin hot spot : 2.5 years after a preventative intervention

Da Nang Airbase in Viet Nam served as a bulk storage and supply facility for Agent Orange and other herbicides during Operation Ranch Hand 1961-1971[1]. Studies have shown that environmental and biological samples taken around the airbase site have elevated levels of dioxin [1-3]. Residents living in the vicinity of the airbase are at risk of exposure to dioxin in soil, water and mud and particularly through the consumption of local contaminated food. In 2009, a pre-intervention cross sectional survey was undertaken. This survey examined the knowledge, attitudes and practices (KAP) of householders living near Da Nang Airbase, relevent to reducing dioxin exposure through contaminated food. The results showed that despite living near a severe dioxin hot spot, the residents had very limited knowledge of both exposure risk and measures to reduce exposure to dioxin[4]. In response, the Vietnam Public Health Association (VPHA) and Da Nang Public Health Association implemented a risk reduction program at four residential wards in the vicinities of the Da Nang Airbase in 2010. A post intervention KAP survey was under taken in 2011, and the results showed that knowledge of the existence of dioxin in food, dioxin exposure pathways, potential high risk foods, and preventive measures was significantly enhanced. This new study monitored KAP 2.5 years after the intervention through a 2013 survey of food handlers from 400 households that were randomly selected from the four intervention wards. The results show that most of the positive outcomes remained stable or had increased; some KAP indicators decreased compared to those in the post-intervention survey, but were still significantly higher than the pre-intervention levels. In 2014, these findings will be incorporated with qualitative assessments and the results of laboratory analysis of dioxin concentrations in foods in Da Nang and Bien Hoa dioxin hot spots to comprehensively assess the sustained effects of the intervention.

Scanning electron microscopic study of microstructure of Gala apples during hot air drying

Microscopic changes occur in plant food materials during drying significantly influence the macroscopic properties and quality factors of the dried food materials. It is very critical to study microstructure to understand the underlying cellular mechanisms to improve performance of the food drying techniques. However, there is very limited research conducted on such microstructural changes of plant food material during drying. In this work, Gala apple parenchyma tissue samples were studied using a scanning electron microscope for gradual microstructural changes as affected by temperature, time and moisture content during hot air drying at two drying temperatures: 57 ℃ and 70 ℃. For fresh samples, the average cellular parameter values were; cell area: 20000 μm2, ferret diameter: 160 μm, perimeter: 600 μm, roundness: 0.76, elongation: 1.45 and compactness: 0.84. During drying, a higher degree of cell shrinkage was observed with cell wall warping and increase in intercellular space. However, no significant cell wall breakage was observed. The overall reduction of cell area, ferret diameter and perimeter were about 60%, 40% and 30%. The cell roundness and elongation showed overall increments of about 5% and the compactness remained unchanged. Throughout the drying cycle, cellular deformations were mainly influenced by the moisture content. During the initial and intermediate stages of drying, cellular deformations were also positively influenced by the drying temperature and the effect was reversed at the final stages of drying which provides clues for case hardening of the material.

Hot spot detection and spatio-temporal dispersion of dengue fever in Hanoi, Vietnam

INTRODUCTION Dengue fever (DF) in Vietnam remains a serious emerging arboviral disease, which generates significant concerns among international health authorities. Incidence rates of DF have increased significantly during the last few years in many provinces and cities, especially Hanoi. The purpose of this study was to detect DF hot spots and identify the disease dynamics dispersion of DF over the period between 2004 and 2009 in Hanoi, Vietnam. METHODS Daily data on DF cases and population data for each postcode area of Hanoi between January 1998 and December 2009 were obtained from the Hanoi Center for Preventive Health and the General Statistic Office of Vietnam. Moran's I statistic was used to assess the spatial autocorrelation of reported DF. Spatial scan statistics and logistic regression were used to identify space-time clusters and dispersion of DF. RESULTS The study revealed a clear trend of geographic expansion of DF transmission in Hanoi through the study periods (OR 1.17, 95% CI 1.02-1.34). The spatial scan statistics showed that 6/14 (42.9%) districts in Hanoi had significant cluster patterns, which lasted 29 days and were limited to a radius of 1,000 m. The study also demonstrated that most DF cases occurred between June and November, during which the rainfall and temperatures are highest. CONCLUSIONS There is evidence for the existence of statistically significant clusters of DF in Hanoi, and that the geographical distribution of DF has expanded over recent years. This finding provides a foundation for further investigation into the social and environmental factors responsible for changing disease patterns, and provides data to inform program planning for DF control.

Dimensions and reliability of a hospital safety climate questionnaire in Chinese health-care practice

The aim of the current study was to examine the dimensions and reliability of a hospital safety climate questionnaire in Chinese health-care practice. To achieve this, a cross-sectional survey of health-care professionals was undertaken at a university teaching hospital in Shandong province, China. Our survey instrument demonstrated very high internal consistency, comparing well with previous research in this field conducted in other countries. Factor analysis highlighted four key dimensions of safety climate, which centred on employee personal protection, employee interactions, safetyrelated housekeeping and time pressures. Overall, this study suggests that hospital safety climate represents an important aspect of health-care practice in contemporary China.

The role of common but differentiated responsibility in the 2020 climate regime

The principle of common but differentiated responsibility (CBDR) will play a role in the 2020 Climate Regime. This Article starts by examining differential treatment within the international legal order, finding that it is ethically and practically difficult to implement an international climate instrument based on formal equality. There is evidence of state parties accepting differential responsibilities in a number of areas within the international legal order and the embedding of CBDR in the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), means that that differential commitments will lie at the heart of the 2020 climate regime. The UNFCCC applies the implementation method of differentiation, while the Kyoto Protocol applies both the obligation and implementation method of differentiation. It is suggested that the implementation model will be the differentiation model retained in the 2020 climate agreement. The Parties’ submissions under the Durban Platform are considered in order to gain an understanding of their positions on CBDR. While there are areas of contention including the role of principles in shaping obligations and the ongoing legal status of Annex I and Non-Annex I distinction, there is broad consensus among the parties in favour of differentiation by implementation with developed and major economies undertaking Quantified Emission Limitation and Reduction Objectives (economy wide targets) and developing countries that are not major economies undertaking sectoral targets.

Urban Food Security, Urban Resilience and Climate Change

The growing importance of logistics in increasingly globalised production and consumption systems strengthens the case for explicit consideration of the climate risks that may impact on the operation of ports in the future, as well as the formulation of adaptation responses that act to enhance their resilience. Within a logistics chain, seaports are functional nodes of significant strategic importance, and are considered as critical gateways linking local and national supply chains to global markets. However, they are more likely to be exposed to vagaries of climate-related extreme events due to their coastal locations. As such, they need to be adaptive and respond to the projected impacts of climate change, in particular extreme weather events. These impacts are especially important in the logistics context as they could result in varying degrees of business interruption; including business closure in the worst case scenario. Since trans-shipment of freight for both the import and export of goods and raw materials has a significant impact on Australia’s sustained economic growth it was considered important to undertake a study of port functional assets, to assess their vulnerability to climate change, to model the potential impacts of climate-related extreme events, and to highlight possible adaptation responses.

The Impacts of Climate Change on Australia’s Food Production and Export

The global food system is undergoing unprecedented change. With population increases, demands for food globally will continue to rise at the same time that agricultural environments are compromised through urban encroachment, climate change and environmental degradation. Australia has long identified itself as an agricultural exporting nation—but what will its capacity be in feeding an increasing global population as it also comes to terms with extreme climatic events such as the floods, fires and droughts, and reduced water availability, experienced in recent decades? This chapter traces the history of Australian agricultural exports and evaluates its food production and export capacity against scientific predictions of climate change impacts. With the federal government forecasting declines in the production of wheat, beef, dairy and sugar, Australia’s key export commodities may well be compromised. Calls to produce more food using new technologies are likely to generate significant environmental problems. Yet, a radical reconfiguration of Australian agriculture which incorporates alternative approaches, such as agro-ecology, is rarely considered by government and industry.

Climate Change and the Resilience of Commodity Food Production in Australia

The current view of Australian state and national governments about the effects of climate change on agriculture is that farmers – through the adoption of mitigation and adaptation strategies – will remain resilient, and agricultural production will continue to expand. The assumption is that neoliberalism will provide the best ‘free market’ options for climate change mitigation and adaptation in farming. In contrast, we argue that neoliberalism will increase the move towards productivis (‘high-tech’) agriculture – the very system that has caused major environmental damage to the Australian continent. High-tech farming is highly dependent upon access to water and fossil fuels, both of which would appear to be the main limits to production in future decades. Productivist agriculture is a system highly reliant upon fertilizers and fuels that are derived from the petrochemical industry, and are currently increasing in cost as the price of oil increases.

Food security in Australia in an era of neoliberalism, productivism and climate change

For over 150 years Australia has exported bulk, undifferentiated, commodities such as wool, wheat, meat and sugar to the UK and more recently to Japan, Korea, and the Middle East. It is estimated that, each year, Australia's farming system feeds a domestic population of some 22 million people, while exporting enough food to feed another 40 million. With the Australian population expected to double in the next 40 years, and with the anticipated growth in the world's population to reach a level of some 9 billion (from its present level of 7 billion) in the same period, there are strong incentives for an expansion of food production in Australia. Neoliberal settings are encouraging this expansion at the same time as they are facilitating importation of foods, higher levels of foreign direct investment and the commoditisation of resources (such as water). Yet, expansion in food production – and in an era of climate change – will continue to compromise the environment. After discussing Australia's neoliberal framework and its relation to farming, this paper outlines how Australia is attempting to address the issue of food security. It argues that productivist farming approaches that are favoured by both industry and government are proving incapable of bringing about long-term production outcomes that will guarantee national food security.