Value at Risk in measuring market risk: Historical simulation

In this study the theoretical part was created to make comparison between different Value at Risk models. Based on that comparison one model was chosen to the empirical part which concentrated to find out whether the model is accurate to measure market risk. The purpose of this study was to test if Volatility-weighted Historical Simulation is accurate in measuring market risk and what improvements does it bring to market risk measurement compared to traditional Historical Simulation. Volatility-weighted method by Hull and White (1998) was chosen In order to improve the traditional methods capability to measure market risk. In this study we found out that result based on Historical Simulation are dependent on chosen time period, confidence level and how samples are weighted. The findings of this study are that we cannot say that the chosen method is fully reliable in measuring market risk because back testing results are changing during the time period of this study.

Mesoscale numerical analysis of the historical November 1982 heavy precipitation event over Andorra (Eastern Pyrenees)

From 6 to 8 November 1982 one of the most catastrophic flash-flood events was recorded in the Eastern Pyrenees affecting Andorra and also France and Spain with rainfall accumulations exceeding 400 mm in 24 h, 44 fatalities and widespread damage. This paper aims to exhaustively document this heavy precipitation event and examines mesoscale simulations performed by the French Meso-NH non-hydrostatic atmospheric model. Large-scale simulations show the slow-evolving synoptic environment favourable for the development of a deep Atlantic cyclone which induced a strong southerly flow over the Eastern Pyrenees. From the evolution of the synoptic pattern four distinct phases have been identified during the event. The mesoscale analysis presents the second and the third phase as the most intense in terms of rainfall accumulations and highlights the interaction of the moist and conditionally unstable flows with the mountains. The presence of a SW low level jet (30 m s-1) around 1500 m also had a crucial role on focusing the precipitation over the exposed south slopes of the Eastern Pyrenees. Backward trajectories based on Eulerian on-line passive tracers indicate that the orographic uplift was the main forcing mechanism which triggered and maintained the precipitating systems more than 30 h over the Pyrenees. The moisture of the feeding flow mainly came from the Atlantic Ocean (7-9 g kg-1) and the role of the Mediterranean as a local moisture source was very limited (2-3 g kg-1) due to the high initial water vapour content of the parcels and the rapid passage over the basin along the Spanish Mediterranean coast (less than 12 h).

Which Fungus Originally was Trichophyton mentagrophytes? Historical Review and Illustration by a Clinical Case.

Several dermatophytes producing numerous pyriform or round microconidia were called Trichophyton mentagrophytes. Among these dermatophytes are the teleomorph species Arthroderma benhamiae, Arthroderma vanbreuseghemii and Arthroderma simii, and other species such as Trichophyton interdigitale, Trichophyton erinacei and Trichophyton quinckeanum for which only the anamorph is known. Confusion exists about which fungus should be really called T. mentagrophytes and about the rational use of this name in practice. We report a case of beard ringworm (tinea barbae) with A. vanbreuseghemii. According to both clinical signs and the type of hair parasitism, this case was exactly compatible to the first description of a non-favic dermatophytosis by Gruby under the name of "mentagrophyte" from which was derived the dermatophyte epithet mentagrophytes. In addition, the phenotypic characters of the isolated fungus in cultures perfectly matched with those of the first description of a dermatophyte under T. mentagrophytes by Blanchard (Parasites animaux et parasites végétaux à l'exclusion des Bactéries, Masson, Paris, 1896). In conclusion, T. mentagrophytes corresponds to the fungus later named A. vanbreuseghemii. However, because the neotype of T. mentagrophytes was not adequately designated in regard to the ancient literature, we would privilege the use of A. vanbreuseghemii and abandon the name of T. mentagrophytes.

The role of geography and ecology in shaping repeated patterns of morphological and genetic differentiation between European minnows (Phoxinus phoxinus) from the Pyrenees and the Alps

Neutral and selective processes c an drive repeated patterns of evolu tion in dif ferent groups of populationsexp eriencing similar ecol ogica l gradients. In this paper, we used a combinat ion of nucl ear and mitochondrialDNA markers, as well as geometric morphometrics, to investigate repeated patterns of morphological andgenetic divergence of E uropean minnows in two mountain ranges : the Pyrenees and the Al ps. Europeanminnows (Phoxinus phoxinus) are cyprinid fish i nha bitin g most freshwater bodies in Europe, including those indifferent mountain r anges that could act as major geographical barriers to gene flow. We explored patterns ofP. phoxinus phenotypic and genetic di versi fication along a gradi ent of alti tude common to the two mountainranges, and tested for isolation by distance (IBD), isolation by environment (IBE) and isolation by adaptation(IBA). The results indicated that populations from the Pyr enees a nd the Alps bel ong to two well differentiated,reciprocally monophyletic mt DNA lineages. Substantial genetic differentiation due to geographical isolationwithin and between populations from the Pyrenees and the Alps was also found using rapidly evolving AFLPsmarkers (isolation by distance or IBD), as well as morphological differences between mountain ranges. Als o,morphology varied strong ly with elevation and so did genetic differentiation to a lower extent. Despitemoderate evidence for IBE and IBA, and therefore of repeated evolution, substantial population heterogeneitywas found at the genetic level, suggesting that selection and population specific genetic drift act in concert toaffect genetic divergence.

Present day distribution and historical biogeography of the tribu Ophidiini (Ophidiformes, Ophidiidae, Ophidiinae) from the East Tropical Atlantic (CLOFETA area) and North-East Atlantic and Mediterranean (CLOFNAM area)

The present day geographic distribution of the Ophidiini tribe (Ophidiidae, Ophidiinae) in the Clofnam (North- Eastern Atlantic and Mediterranean) and Clofeta (Eastern Tropical Atlantic) areas is revised in this paper. Results show that Parohidion vassali is not a Mediterranean endemic species, and the presence of Ophidion barbatum in the Atlantic is confirmed. Moreover, the paper tries to analyse the historical events which could have caused the present situation of two genera, Ophidion and Parophidion, both in the Atlantic and in the Mediterranean. Although first fossil records of Ophidion and Parophidion date from the Pliocene, when considering all the historical events occurred from the existence of the Tethys Sea to the opening of the Atlantic and the Mediterranean formation, a much earlier origin of these genera seems to be more likely. The situation of Ophidion barbatum and O. rochei in the Mediterranean and Black Sea is also discussed

Gamma Knife Surgery versus Linac for Brain Metastasis: Which Technique for Which Patient? Analysis of an Historical Cohort of 63 Consecutive Patients Harboring 130 Lesions

Objectives: We present the retrospective analysis of a single-institution experience for radiosurgery (RS) in brain metastasis (BM) with Gamma Knife (GK) and Linac. Methods: From July 2010 to July 2012, 28 patients (with 83 lesions) had RS with GK and 35 patients (with 47 lesions) with Linac. The primary outcome was the local progression-free survival (LPFS). The secondary outcome was the overall survival (OS). Apart a standard statistical analysis, we included a Cox regression model with shared frailty, to modulate the within-patient correlation (preliminary evaluation showed a significant frailty effect, meaning that the correlation within patient could be ignored). Results: The mean follow-up period was 11.7 months (median 7.9, 1.7-22.7) for GK and 18.1 (median 17, 7.5-28.7) for Linac. The median number of lesions per patient was 2.5 (1-9) in GK compared with 1 (1-3) in Linac. There were more radioresistant lesions (melanoma) and more lesions located in functional areas for the GK group. The median dose was 24 Gy (GK) compared with 20 Gy (Linac). The LPFS actuarial rate was as follows: for GK at 3, 6, 9, 12, and 17 months: 96.96, 96.96, 96.96, 88.1, and 81.5%, and remained stable till 32 months; for Linac at 3, 6, 12, 17, 24, and 33 months, it was 91.5, 91.5, 91.5, 79.9, 55.5, and 17.1%, respectively (p = 0.03, chi-square test). After the Cox regression analysis with shared frailty, the p-value was not statistically significant between groups. The median overall survival was 9.7 months for GK and 23.6 months for Linac group. Uni- and multivariate analysis showed a lower GPA score and noncontrolled systemic status were associated with lower OS. Cox regression analysis adjusting for these two parameters showed comparable OS rate. Conclusions: In this comparative report between GK and Linac, preliminary analysis showed that more difficult cases are treated by GK, with patients harboring more lesions, radioresistant tumors, and highly functional located. The groups look, in this sense, very heterogeneous at baseline. After a Cox frailty model, the LPFS rates seemed very similar (p < 0.05). The OS was similar, after adjusting for systemic status and GPA score (p < 0.05). The technical reasons for choosing GK instead of Linac were the anatomical location related to highly functional areas, histology, technical limitations of Linac movements, especially lower posterior fossa locations, or closeness of multiple lesions to highly functional areas optimal dosimetry with Linac

Geography of talent and regional differences in Spain

Tentative empirical evidence suggests that the agglomeration of talent contributes to regional development. However, given that talented people are not evenly distributed across regions, this paper seeks to determine how the concentration of talent affects patterns of regional development. Here, we empirically evaluate the effects of the distribution of talent on regional differences by means of a detailed analysis of the 17 Autonomous Communities of Spain between 1996 and 2004. We hypothesise that regions specialising in strategic sectors that are creative and which can be assumed to enjoy rapid growth in productivity will experience faster rates of development and, in turn, that this concentration of talent will have a positive impact on the region’s economic performance. Thus, we believe that this mechanism can explain the marked regional imbalances in Spain. Our findings confirm that regional differences, measured in terms of GDP per capita and by, - industrial and service- oriented production, are influenced by the Communities’ talent bases as determined by, educational attainment and employment in assumed to be strategic for regional development, inasmuch as these sectors provide economic specialization.

A relational approach to the geography of innovation: a typology of regions

The aim of this study was to devise a method for computing a composite indicator that measures the regional degree of exposure to external knowledge sources. On the basis of this indicator, we propose a typology of regions according to their potential capacity to access extra-local items of knowledge, which might help them to recombine complementary elements of such an asset to produce a higher number of new ideas. Building on various research streams that have been relatively independent to date, we summarize a non-exhaustive instrumental list of recent studies that motivates our approach and the construction of our complex indicator, which can be used to appraise the extent to which each region is in an optimal position to access external innovative resources.

Speed limit laws in America: economics, politics and geography

The regulation of speed limits in the US had been centralized at the federal level since 1974, until decisions were devolved to the states in 1995. However, the centralization debate has reemerged in recent years. Here, we conduct the first econometric analysis of the determinants of speed limit laws. By using economic, geographic and political variables, our results suggest that geography -which affects private mobility needs and preferences- is the main factor influencing speed limit laws. We also highlight the role played by political ideology, with Republican constituencies being associated with higher speed limits. Furthermore, we identify the presence of regional and time dependence effects. By contrast, poor road safety outcomes do not impede the enactment of high speed limits. Overall, we present the first evidence of the role played by geographical, ideological and regional characteristics, which provide us with a better understanding of the formulation of speed limit policies.

Economic Methodology: A Historical Introduction.

Ever since the inception of economics over two hundred years ago, the tools at the discipline's disposal have grown more and more more sophisticated. This book provides a historical introduction to the methodology of economics through the eyes of economists. The story begins with John Stuart Mill's seminal essay from 1836 on the definition and method of political economy, which is then followed by an examination of how the actual practices of economists changed over time to such an extent that they not only altered their methods of enquiry, but also their self-perception as economists. Beginning as intellectuals and journalists operating to a large extent in the public sphere, they then transformed into experts who developed their tools of research increasingly behind the scenes. No longer did they try to influence policy agendas through public discourse; rather they targeted policymakers directly and with instruments that showed them as independent and objective policy advisors, the tools of the trade changing all the while. In order to shed light on this evolution of economic methodology, this book takes carefully selected snapshots from the discipline's history. It tracks the process of development through the nineteenth and twentieth centuries, analysing the growth of empirical and mathematical modelling. It also looks at the emergence of the experiment in economics, in addition to the similarities and differences between modelling and experimentation. This book will be relevant reading for students and academics in the fields of economic methodology, history of economics, and history and philosophy of the social sciences.

Al-Bīrūnī's Kitāb Sānk and Kitāb Pātanğal:A Historical and Textual Study

The historical pole of this research distinguishes differing historical and cultural contexts in which the scholar al-Bïrûnî evolved. Between the years 973 and 1017, he lived in Khwarezm (Kät and JürjänTya), Ray, and Jürjän. He also dwelt in Kabul and Ghazna, both situated on a passage between Persia and India, and travelled to some parts of early medieval India between the years 1017 and 1030. Evidence pointing to him having made actual direct observations beyond the abode of Islam remains scanty. According to his writings, only five locales emerge as having been visited by him, all situated in today's Afghanistan and Pakistan. When al-BTrunl visited these places, he encountered the society of the Indian Shähis, who followed a form of Brahmanism. Al-Bïrûnï's knowledge of Sanskrit was the result of a long process that lasted at least 30 years (1000-1030). In order to reach the level of Sanskrit that enabled him to translate several works from Sanskrit into Arabic, he needed to work with literate people well-versed in Sanskrit, who may also have had some comprehension of Arabic, and/or Persian. The textual pole of this dissertation examines the question of the relationship between al- Bïrûnï's Arabic Kitab Sank and Kitäb Pätangal - two works related to Sämkhya-Yoga - and their possible Sanskrit sources. A philological survey based on these Arabic translations and on Sämkhya-Yoga Sanskrit literature highlights that al-Bïrûnï's translations, both, are related to the classical phase in the development of these two Indian philosophical systems. Despite the early spread of Yoga and Sämkhya ideas through Sanskrit literature, it seems that between the early 11th and 16th centuries they lost vitality amongst Indian scholars. Therefore, al-Bïrûnï's translation of works related to these specific Indian philosophies in the early 11th century CE deserves attention. The second pole of this study also demonstrates that al-BTrünl's hermeneutics played an important part in his transmission of these two Indian schools of thought, as he highly transformed his source in both form and substance. This dissertation considers the question of the relationship between al-Bïrûnï's Arabic translations and their possible Sanskrit sources from the viewpoint of Translation Studies; which makes it possible to point out potential candidates for being al-Bïrûnï's original Sanskrit sources with some confidence. Overall, the Kitäb Sank and the Kitäb Pätangal represent original works of Sämkhya and Yoga, as viewed and transmitted by a Perso-Muslim scholar, rather than pure translations of Sanskrit work.