Hierarchical Bayesian models in ecology: Reconstructing species interaction networks from non-homogeneous species abundance data

The relationships among organisms and their surroundings can be of immense complexity. To describe and understand an ecosystem as a tangled bank, multiple ways of interaction and their effects have to be considered, such as predation, competition, mutualism and facilitation. Understanding the resulting interaction networks is a challenge in changing environments, e.g. to predict knock-on effects of invasive species and to understand how climate change impacts biodiversity. The elucidation of complex ecological systems with their interactions will benefit enormously from the development of new machine learning tools that aim to infer the structure of interaction networks from field data. In the present study, we propose a novel Bayesian regression and multiple changepoint model (BRAM) for reconstructing species interaction networks from observed species distributions. The model has been devised to allow robust inference in the presence of spatial autocorrelation and distributional heterogeneity. We have evaluated the model on simulated data that combines a trophic niche model with a stochastic population model on a 2-dimensional lattice, and we have compared the performance of our model with L1-penalized sparse regression (LASSO) and non-linear Bayesian networks with the BDe scoring scheme. In addition, we have applied our method to plant ground coverage data from the western shore of the Outer Hebrides with the objective to infer the ecological interactions. (C) 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Stress processes in caring for an end-of-life family member:Application of a theoretical model

Objectives: Family caregivers play a vital role in maintaining the lives of individuals with advanced illness living in the community. However, the responsibility of caregiving for an end-of-life family member can have profound consequences on the psychological, physical and financial well-being of the caregiver. While the literature has identified caregiver stress or strain as a complex process with multiple contributing factors, few comprehensive studies exist. This study examined a wide range of theory-driven variables contributing to family caregiver stress. Method: Data variables from interviews with primary family caregivers were mapped onto the factors within the Stress Process Model theoretical framework. A hierarchical multiple linear regression analysis was used to determine the strongest predictors of caregiver strain as measured by a validated composite index, the Caregiver Strain Index. Results: The study included 132 family caregivers across south-central/western Ontario, Canada. About half of these caregivers experienced high strain, the extent of which was predicted by lower perceived program accessibility, lower functional social support, greater weekly amount of time caregivers committed to the care recipient, younger caregiver age and poorer caregiver self-perceived health. Conclusion: This study examined the influence of a multitude of factors in the Stress Process Model on family caregiver strain, finding stress to be a multidimensional construct. Perceived program accessibility was the strongest predictor of caregiver strain, more so than intensity of care, highlighting the importance of the availability of community resources to support the family caregiving role.

Self-reported teamwork in family health team practices in Ontario:Organizational and cultural predictors of team climate

Objective: To determine the organizational predictors of higher scores on team climate measures as an indicator of the functioning of a family health team (FHT). Design: Cross-sectional study using a mailed survey. Setting: Family health teams in Ontario. Participants: Twenty-one of 144 consecutively approached FHTs; 628 team members were surveyed. Main outcome measures: Scores on the team climate inventory, which assessed organizational culture type (group, developmental, rational, or hierarchical); leadership perceptions; and organizational factors, such as use of electronic medical records (EMRs), team composition, governance of the FHT, location, meetings, and time since FHT initiation. All analyses were adjusted for clustering of respondents within the FHT using a mixed random-intercepts model. Results: The response rate was 65.8% (413 of 628); 2 were excluded from analysis, for a total of 411 participants. At the time of survey completion, there was a median of 4 physicians, 11 other health professionals, and 4 management and clerical staff per FHT. The average team climate score was 3.8 out of a possible 5. In multivariable regression analysis, leadership score, group and developmental culture types, and use of more EMR capabilities were associated with higher team climate scores. Other organizational factors, such as number of sites and size of group, were not associated with the team climate score. Conclusion: Culture, leadership, and EMR functionality, rather than organizational composition of the teams (eg, number of professionals on staff, practice size), were the most important factors in predicting climate in primary care teams.

Strudel: A corpus-based semantic model based on properties and types

Computational models of meaning trained on naturally occurring text successfully model human performance on tasks involving simple similarity measures, but they characterize meaning in terms of undifferentiated bags of words or topical dimensions. This has led some to question their psychological plausibility (Murphy, 2002; Schunn, 1999). We present here a fully automatic method for extracting a structured and comprehensive set of concept descriptions directly from an English part-of-speech-tagged corpus. Concepts are characterized by weighted properties, enriched with concept-property types that approximate classical relations such as hypernymy and function. Our model outperforms comparable algorithms in cognitive tasks pertaining not only to concept-internal structures (discovering properties of concepts, grouping properties by property type) but also to inter-concept relations (clustering into superordinates), suggesting the empirical validity of the property-based approach. Copyright © 2009 Cognitive Science Society, Inc. All rights reserved.

AGWAN: A Generative Model for Labelled, Weighted Graphs

Real-world graphs or networks tend to exhibit a well-known set of properties, such as heavy-tailed degree distributions, clustering and community formation. Much effort has been directed into creating realistic and tractable models for unlabelled graphs, which has yielded insights into graph structure and evolution. Recently, attention has moved to creating models for labelled graphs: many real-world graphs are labelled with both discrete and numeric attributes. In this paper, we present AGWAN (Attribute Graphs: Weighted and Numeric), a generative model for random graphs with discrete labels and weighted edges. The model is easily generalised to edges labelled with an arbitrary number of numeric attributes. We include algorithms for fitting the parameters of the AGWAN model to real-world graphs and for generating random graphs from the model. Using the Enron “who communicates with whom” social graph, we compare our approach to state-of-the-art random labelled graph generators and draw conclusions about the contribution of discrete vertex labels and edge weights to the structure of real-world graphs.

A Statistical Model for Shadowed Body Centric Communications Channels: Theory and Validation

This paper presents a new statistical signal reception model for shadowed body-centric communications channels. In this model, the potential clustering of multipath components is considered alongside the presence of elective dominant signal components. As typically occurs in body-centric communications channels, the dominant or line-of-sight (LOS) components are shadowed by body matter situated in the path trajectory. This situation may be further exacerbated due to physiological and biomechanical movements of the body. In the proposed model, the resultant dominant component which is formed by the phasor addition of these leading contributions is assumed to follow a lognormal distribution. A wide range of measured and simulated shadowed body-centric channels considering on-body, off-body and body-to-body communications are used to validate the model. During the course of the validation experiments, it was found that, even for environments devoid of multipath or specular reflections generated by the local surroundings, a noticeable resultant dominant component can still exist in body-centric channels where the user's body shadows the direct LOS signal path between the transmitter and the receiver.

Human body shadowing in cellular device-to-device communications: channel modeling using the shadowed κ−μ fading model

Using device-to-device communications as an underlay for cellular communications will provide an exciting opportunity to increase network capacity as well as improving spectral efficiency. The unique geometry of device-to-device links, where user equipment is often held or carried at low elevation and in close proximity to the human body, will mean that they are particularly susceptible to shadowing events caused not only by the local environment but also by the user's body. In this paper, the shadowed κ - μ fading model is proposed, which is capable of characterizing shadowed fading in wireless communication channels. In this model, the statistics of the received signal are manifested by the clustering of multipath components. Within each of these clusters, a dominant signal component with arbitrary power may exist. The resultant dominant signal component, which is formed by the phasor addition of these leading contributions, is assumed to follow a Nakagami- m distribution. The probability density function, moments, and the moment-generating function are also derived. The new model is then applied to device-to-device links operating at 868 MHz in an outdoor urban environment. It was found that shadowing of the resultant dominant component can vary significantly depending upon the position of the user equipment relative to the body and the link geometry. Overall, the shadowed κ - μ fading model is shown to provide a good fit to the field data as well as providing a useful insight into the characteristics of the received signal.

MSC-clustering and forward stepwise regression for virtual metrology in highly correlated input spaces

Increasingly semiconductor manufacturers are exploring opportunities for virtual metrology (VM) enabled process monitoring and control as a means of reducing non-value added metrology and achieving ever more demanding wafer fabrication tolerances. However, developing robust, reliable and interpretable VM models can be very challenging due to the highly correlated input space often associated with the underpinning data sets. A particularly pertinent example is etch rate prediction of plasma etch processes from multichannel optical emission spectroscopy data. This paper proposes a novel input-clustering based forward stepwise regression methodology for VM model building in such highly correlated input spaces. Max Separation Clustering (MSC) is employed as a pre-processing step to identify a reduced srt of well-conditioned, representative variables that can then be used as inputs to state-of-the-art model building techniques such as Forward Selection Regression (FSR), Ridge regression, LASSO and Forward Selection Ridge Regression (FCRR). The methodology is validated on a benchmark semiconductor plasma etch dataset and the results obtained are compared with those achieved when the state-of-art approaches are applied directly to the data without the MSC pre-processing step. Significant performance improvements are observed when MSC is combined with FSR (13%) and FSRR (8.5%), but not with Ridge Regression (-1%) or LASSO (-32%). The optimal VM results are obtained using the MSC-FSR and MSC-FSRR generated models. © 2012 IEEE.

AGWAN: A Generative Model for Labelled, Weighted Graphs

Real-world graphs or networks tend to exhibit a well-known set of properties, such as heavy-tailed degree distributions, clustering and community formation. Much effort has been directed into creating realistic and tractable models for unlabelled graphs, which has yielded insights into graph structure and evolution. Recently, attention has moved to creating models for labelled graphs: many real-world graphs are labelled with both discrete and numeric attributes. In this paper, we presentAgwan (Attribute Graphs: Weighted and Numeric), a generative model for random graphs with discrete labels and weighted edges. The model is easily generalised to edges labelled with an arbitrary number of numeric attributes. We include algorithms for fitting the parameters of the Agwanmodel to real-world graphs and for generating random graphs from the model. Using real-world directed and undirected graphs as input, we compare our approach to state-of-the-art random labelled graph generators and draw conclusions about the contribution of discrete vertex labels and edge weights to graph structure.

Reforming the Westminster Model of Agency Governance: Britain and Ireland after the Crisis

Conventional understandings of what the Westminster model implies anticipate reliance on a top-down, hierarchical approach to budgetary accountability, reinforced by a post–New Public Management emphasis on recentralizing administrative capacity. This article, based on a comparative analysis of the experiences of Britain and Ireland, argues that the Westminster model of bureaucratic control and oversight itself has been evolving, hastened in large part due to the global financial crisis. Governments have gained stronger controls over the structures and practices of agencies, but agencies are also key players in securing better governance outcomes. The implication is that the crisis has not seen a return to the archetypal command-and-control model, nor a wholly new implementation of negotiated European-type practices, but rather a new accountability balance between elements of the Westminster system itself that have not previously been well understood.

Contributos para a eficácia do clustering usando o tagging social

Nos últimos anos temos vindo a assistir a uma mudança na forma como a informação é disponibilizada online. O surgimento da web para todos possibilitou a fácil edição, disponibilização e partilha da informação gerando um considerável aumento da mesma. Rapidamente surgiram sistemas que permitem a coleção e partilha dessa informação, que para além de possibilitarem a coleção dos recursos também permitem que os utilizadores a descrevam utilizando tags ou comentários. A organização automática dessa informação é um dos maiores desafios no contexto da web atual. Apesar de existirem vários algoritmos de clustering, o compromisso entre a eficácia (formação de grupos que fazem sentido) e a eficiência (execução em tempo aceitável) é difícil de encontrar. Neste sentido, esta investigação tem por problemática aferir se um sistema de agrupamento automático de documentos, melhora a sua eficácia quando se integra um sistema de classificação social. Analisámos e discutimos dois métodos baseados no algoritmo k-means para o clustering de documentos e que possibilitam a integração do tagging social nesse processo. O primeiro permite a integração das tags diretamente no Vector Space Model e o segundo propõe a integração das tags para a seleção das sementes iniciais. O primeiro método permite que as tags sejam pesadas em função da sua ocorrência no documento através do parâmetro Social Slider. Este método foi criado tendo por base um modelo de predição que sugere que, quando se utiliza a similaridade dos cossenos, documentos que partilham tags ficam mais próximos enquanto que, no caso de não partilharem, ficam mais distantes. O segundo método deu origem a um algoritmo que denominamos k-C. Este para além de permitir a seleção inicial das sementes através de uma rede de tags também altera a forma como os novos centróides em cada iteração são calculados. A alteração ao cálculo dos centróides teve em consideração uma reflexão sobre a utilização da distância euclidiana e similaridade dos cossenos no algoritmo de clustering k-means. No contexto da avaliação dos algoritmos foram propostos dois algoritmos, o algoritmo da “Ground truth automática” e o algoritmo MCI. O primeiro permite a deteção da estrutura dos dados, caso seja desconhecida, e o segundo é uma medida de avaliação interna baseada na similaridade dos cossenos entre o documento mais próximo de cada documento. A análise de resultados preliminares sugere que a utilização do primeiro método de integração das tags no VSM tem mais impacto no algoritmo k-means do que no algoritmo k-C. Além disso, os resultados obtidos evidenciam que não existe correlação entre a escolha do parâmetro SS e a qualidade dos clusters. Neste sentido, os restantes testes foram conduzidos utilizando apenas o algoritmo k-C (sem integração de tags no VSM), sendo que os resultados obtidos indicam que a utilização deste algoritmo tende a gerar clusters mais eficazes.

Disparity energy model with keypoint disparity validation

A biological disparity energy model can estimate local depth information by using a population of V1 complex cells. Instead of applying an analytical model which explicitly involves cell parameters like spatial frequency, orientation, binocular phase and position difference, we developed a model which only involves the cells’ responses, such that disparity can be extracted from a population code, using only a set of previously trained cells with random-dot stereograms of uniform disparity. Despite good results in smooth regions, the model needs complementary processing, notably at depth transitions. We therefore introduce a new model to extract disparity at keypoints such as edge junctions, line endings and points with large curvature. Responses of end-stopped cells serve to detect keypoints, and those of simple cells are used to detect orientations of their underlying line and edge structures. Annotated keypoints are then used in the leftright matching process, with a hierarchical, multi-scale tree structure and a saliency map to segregate disparity. By combining both models we can (re)define depth transitions and regions where the disparity energy model is less accurate.

A Fuzzy-Wavelet Neural Network Model for the Detection of Meat Spoilage using an Electronic Nose

Food product safety is one of the most promising areas for the application of electronic noses. The performance of a portable electronic nose has been evaluated in monitoring the spoilage of beef fillet stored aerobically at different storage temperatures (0, 4, 8, 12, 16 and 20°C). This paper proposes a fuzzy-wavelet neural network model which incorporates a clustering pre-processing stage for the definition of fuzzy rules. The dual purpose of the proposed modeling approach is not only to classify beef samples in the respective quality class (i.e. fresh, semi-fresh and spoiled), but also to predict their associated microbiological population directly from volatile compounds fingerprints. Comparison results indicated that the proposed modeling scheme could be considered as a valuable detection methodology in food microbiology

Categorical data clustering using a minimum message length criterion

Research on cluster analysis for categorical data continues to develop, new clustering algorithms being proposed. However, in this context, the determination of the number of clusters is rarely addressed. We propose a new approach in which clustering and the estimation of the number of clusters is done simultaneously for categorical data. We assume that the data originate from a finite mixture of multinomial distributions and use a minimum message length criterion (MML) to select the number of clusters (Wallace and Bolton, 1986). For this purpose, we implement an EM-type algorithm (Silvestre et al., 2008) based on the (Figueiredo and Jain, 2002) approach. The novelty of the approach rests on the integration of the model estimation and selection of the number of clusters in a single algorithm, rather than selecting this number based on a set of pre-estimated candidate models. The performance of our approach is compared with the use of Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC) (Schwarz, 1978) and Integrated Completed Likelihood (ICL) (Biernacki et al., 2000) using synthetic data. The obtained results illustrate the capacity of the proposed algorithm to attain the true number of cluster while outperforming BIC and ICL since it is faster, which is especially relevant when dealing with large data sets.

Supplier's selection model based on an empirical study

The problem of selecting suppliers/partners is a crucial and important part in the process of decision making for companies that intend to perform competitively in their area of activity. The selection of supplier/partner is a time and resource-consuming task that involves data collection and a careful analysis of the factors that can positively or negatively influence the choice. Nevertheless it is a critical process that affects significantly the operational performance of each company. In this work, there were identified five broad selection criteria: Quality, Financial, Synergies, Cost, and Production System. Within these criteria, it was also included five sub-criteria. After the identification criteria, a survey was elaborated and companies were contacted in order to understand which factors have more weight in their decisions to choose the partners. Interpreted the results and processed the data, it was adopted a model of linear weighting to reflect the importance of each factor. The model has a hierarchical structure and can be applied with the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) method or Value Analysis. The goal of the paper it's to supply a selection reference model that can represent an orientation/pattern for a decision making on the suppliers/partners selection process