Modeling U.S. Inflation Dynamics: A Bayesian Nonparametric Approach

This paper uses an infinite hidden Markov model (IIHMM) to analyze U.S. inflation dynamics with a particular focus on the persistence of inflation. The IHMM is a Bayesian nonparametric approach to modeling structural breaks. It allows for an unknown number of breakpoints and is a flexible and attractive alternative to existing methods. We found a clear structural break during the recent financial crisis. Prior to that, inflation persistence was high and fairly constant.

Volatility of Housing

The aim of the project is to develop a theoretical framework where homelessness arises due to various economic and social factors that vary over time. The ultimate goal is i) to understand whether homelessness spells, entrances and exits could be predicted and if so what information is necessary; and ii) to design and evaluate a homelessness prevention programme in a changing and uncertain environment. Examples of the questions we want to answer are: Should it be made easier for people to borrow money so that they can get out of homelessness, or will such borrowing allow people to over-consume today and so fall into homelessness tomorrow? Should precautionary savings be encouraged so that people have cushions to withstand future shocks, or will savings just delay entry into homelessness? What interventions will affect the probability of becoming homeless and how will they affect behaviour? How will interventions affect incentives to save and to consume before homelessness prevention programmes kick in?

Biomphalaria obstructa (Morelet, 1849): a study of topotypic specimens (Mollusca: pulmonata: planorbidae)

A description of Biomphalaria obstructa (Morelet, 1849), based on specimens collected at its type locality - isla del carmen, state of Campeche, Mexico - is presented. The Shell is small, 13 mm in diameter, 3.5 mm in width and with 5.75 whorls in the largest specimen, thin, moderately lustrous and translucent, horn-colored. Whorls increasing regularly (neither slowly nor rapidly) in diameter, rounded on the periphery side, bluntly angular on the left. Suture well-marked, deeper on the left. Right side widely concave, with first whorl deeply situated and partly hidden by the next. Left side shallower than right one, largely flattened, with first whorl plaintly visible. Aperture roundly heart-shaped, usually in the same plane as the body whorl but somewhat deflected to the left (less frequently to the right) in some specimens. Peristome sharp, seldom blunt; a distinct callus on the parietal wall. A number of young shells develop one set (seldom more) of apertural lamellae which tend to be resorbed as the shell grows. Absence of renal ridge. Ovotestis with about 70 mostly unbrached diverticula. Seminal vesicle beset with well-developed knoblike to fingerlike diverticula. Vaginal pouch more or less developed. Spermatheca club-shaped when empty, egg-shaped when full, and with intermediate forms between those extremes. Spermathecal body usually somewhat longer than the duct. Prostate with 7 to 20 (mean 12.06 ± 2.51) usually short diverticula which give off plumpish branches spreading out in a fan shape and overlapping to some extent their immediate neighbors. Foremost prostatic diverticulum nearly always partially or completely inserted between the spermathecal body and the uterine wall. Penial sheath consistently narrower and shorter than the prepuce. Muscular coat of the penis consisting of an inner longitudinal and an outer circular layers. Ratios between organ lengths: caudal to cephalic parts of female duct = 0.55 to 1.37 (mean 0.85 +- 0.17); cephalic parte of female duct to penial complex = 1.36 to 2.81 ((mean 1.90 +- 0.33); penial sheath to prepuce = 042 to 0.96 (mean 0.67 +- 0.13). Comparison with Morelet’s type specimens of Planorbis orbiculus and P. retusus points to the identity of those nominal species with B. obstructa.

Deconstructing Purism: Unconscious Drives and Meta-argumentation in Straight Photography

The thesis investigates the nature of the Purist discourse in photography, with the aim of unveiling its lack of a solid theoretical foundation and its unconscious content. Purism outlines the fact that photography is a unique craft, that may not borrow ideas from painting or any other art forms. What makes the Purist discourse suspect and attracts attention to its possible circular style? The fact that the views expressed by its supporters include a frenzied edge, an unnecessary ardor, a combative tone that discloses that there’s something hidden, something that doesn’t serve the purpose of presenting an unbiased philosophical claim

Palafrugell: un viatge pel seu clima

Treball de recerca realitzat per dos alumnes d'ensenyament secundari i guardonat amb un Premi CIRIT per fomentar l'esperit cientí­fic del Jovent l'any 2009. El treball pretén reconstruir part de la història climàtica de Palafrugell, tractar els fenòmens meteorològics més rellevants de les darreres dècades i mostrar què és realment el canvi climàtic i com podria afectar en el futur a Palafrugell. A partir de dades meteorològiques recollides en llibres, quaderns, fulls d'observatoris meteorològics, així com també a través d'entrevistes realitzades a experts en el tema, i amb anàlisis comparatius de diferents èpoques climàtiques, es mostra l'extensa història climàtica que amaga Palafrugell, els diferents períodes climàtics, i els efectes de l'escalfament global i les seves conseqüències. Els autors intenten d'aquesta manera no tan sols donar a conèixer el clima del municipi, sinó també, transmetre una definició que s'ajusti millor al significat de canvi climàtic.

Prenatal manifestation and management of a mother and child affected by spondyloperipheral dysplasia with a C-propeptide mutation in COL2A1: case report.

It is not unusual for patients with "rare" conditions, such as skeletal dysplasias, to remain undiagnosed until adulthood. In such cases, a pregnancy may unexpectedly reveal hidden problems and special needs. A 28 year old primigravida was referred to us at 17 weeks for counselling with an undiagnosed skeletal dysplasia with specific skeletal anomalies suggesting the collagen 2 disorder, spondyloperipheral dysplasia (SPD; MIM 156550).She was counselled about the probability of dominant inheritance and was offered a prenatal diagnosis by sonography. US examination at 17, 18 and 20 weeks revealed fetal macrocephaly, a narrow thorax, and shortening and bowing of long bones. The parents elected to continue the pregnancy. At birth the baby showed severe respiratory distress for four weeks which then resolved. Mutation analysis of both mother and child revealed a hitherto undescribed heterozygous nonsense mutation in the C-propeptide coding region of COL2A1 confirming the diagnosis of SPD while reinforcing the genotype-phenotype correlations between C-propeptide COL2A1 mutations and the SPD-Torrance spectrum. This case demonstrates the importance of a correct diagnosis even in adulthood, enabling individuals affected by rare conditions to be made aware about recurrence and pregnancy-associated risks, and potential complications in the newborn.

MSight: an image analysis software for liquid chromatography-mass spectrometry.

Images obtained from high-throughput mass spectrometry (MS) contain information that remains hidden when looking at a single spectrum at a time. Image processing of liquid chromatography-MS datasets can be extremely useful for quality control, experimental monitoring and knowledge extraction. The importance of imaging in differential analysis of proteomic experiments has already been established through two-dimensional gels and can now be foreseen with MS images. We present MSight, a new software designed to construct and manipulate MS images, as well as to facilitate their analysis and comparison.

Le soignant face au patient lombalgique chronique: l'expérience clinique de l'Unité Rachis à l'Hôpital orthopédique [The health professional's approach to chronic lumbago: clinical experience at the Spinal Cord Unit at the orthopedic hospital]

The treatment of back pain patients refers to the biopsychosocial model of care. This model includes illness in patient's personal and relational life. In this context, it is not only the physical symptom of the patient which is focused but also his psychological distress often hidden by algic complain. Clinical interviews conducted with back pain patients have highlighted psychosocial aspects able to influence the relationship between health care user and provider. Taking account of psychosocial aspects implies an interdisciplinary approach that identify and assesses patients' needs through adequate tools. As a result, the different health care providers implied with back pain patients have to collaborate in a structured network.

The InterPro database, an integrated documentation resource for protein families, domains and functional sites.

Signature databases are vital tools for identifying distant relationships in novel sequences and hence for inferring protein function. InterPro is an integrated documentation resource for protein families, domains and functional sites, which amalgamates the efforts of the PROSITE, PRINTS, Pfam and ProDom database projects. Each InterPro entry includes a functional description, annotation, literature references and links back to the relevant member database(s). Release 2.0 of InterPro (October 2000) contains over 3000 entries, representing families, domains, repeats and sites of post-translational modification encoded by a total of 6804 different regular expressions, profiles, fingerprints and Hidden Markov Models. Each InterPro entry lists all the matches against SWISS-PROT and TrEMBL (more than 1,000,000 hits from 462,500 proteins in SWISS-PROT and TrEMBL). The database is accessible for text- and sequence-based searches at http://www.ebi.ac.uk/interpro/. Questions can be emailed to interhelp@ebi.ac.uk.

Does the EU financing system contribute to shadow economic activity?

Financial contributions to the EU budget depend basically on official GDP. This means that countries with higher shadow economic activity contribute less than they should contribute in a system based on actual GDP and therefore could reduce their incentive to fight against such activities. In this paper we investigate if the EU financing system really has an influence on the intensity with which governments in EU member states fight against shadow economic activity. We find that the EU net contributors significantly fight more intensively against shadow economic activity while EU net receivers significantly fight less. As a result, shadow economic activity is higher in net receiver and lower in net contributor countries than it were in comparison with a scenario of nationally balanced EU funding. Quantitatively and averaged over the time period 2001-2007, the diagnosed effect amounts to a stimulation of hidden economic activity by almost 10% for particular economies. JEL classification: C31, D63, F33, H21, H26. Keywords: EU financing system, shadow economy, tax auditing.

Dynamic visual information plays a critical role for spatial navigation in water but not on solid ground.

In the Morris water maze (MWM) task, proprioceptive information is likely to have a poor accuracy due to movement inertia. Hence, in this condition, dynamic visual information providing information on linear and angular acceleration would play a critical role in spatial navigation. To investigate this assumption we compared rat's spatial performance in the MWM and in the homing hole board (HB) tasks using a 1.5 Hz stroboscopic illumination. In the MWM, rats trained in the stroboscopic condition needed more time than those trained in a continuous light condition to reach the hidden platform. They expressed also little accuracy during the probe trial. In the HB task, in contrast, place learning remained unaffected by the stroboscopic light condition. The deficit in the MWM was thus complete, affecting both escape latency and discrimination of the reinforced area, and was thus task specific. This dissociation confirms that dynamic visual information is crucial to spatial navigation in the MWM whereas spatial navigation on solid ground is mediated by a multisensory integration, and thus less dependent on visual information.

Sound Texture Modelling

In the PhD thesis “Sound Texture Modeling” we deal with statistical modelling or textural sounds like water, wind, rain, etc. For synthesis and classification. Our initial model is based on a wavelet tree signal decomposition and the modeling of the resulting sequence by means of a parametric probabilistic model, that can be situated within the family of models trainable via expectation maximization (hidden Markov tree model ). Our model is able to capture key characteristics of the source textures (water, rain, fire, applause, crowd chatter ), and faithfully reproduces some of the sound classes. In terms of a more general taxonomy of natural events proposed by Graver, we worked on models for natural event classification and segmentation. While the event labels comprise physical interactions between materials that do not have textural propierties in their enterity, those segmentation models can help in identifying textural portions of an audio recording useful for analysis and resynthesis. Following our work on concatenative synthesis of musical instruments, we have developed a pattern-based synthesis system, that allows to sonically explore a database of units by means of their representation in a perceptual feature space. Concatenative syntyhesis with “molecules” built from sparse atomic representations also allows capture low-level correlations in perceptual audio features, while facilitating the manipulation of textural sounds based on their physical and perceptual properties. We have approached the problem of sound texture modelling for synthesis from different directions, namely a low-level signal-theoretic point of view through a wavelet transform, and a more high-level point of view driven by perceptual audio features in the concatenative synthesis setting. The developed framework provides unified approach to the high-quality resynthesis of natural texture sounds. Our research is embedded within the Metaverse 1 European project (2008-2011), where our models are contributting as low level building blocks within a semi-automated soundscape generation system.

Machine learning algorithms for spatial data. Case studies: Environmental pollution, natural hazards, renewable resources

This paper presents general problems and approaches for the spatial data analysis using machine learning algorithms. Machine learning is a very powerful approach to adaptive data analysis, modelling and visualisation. The key feature of the machine learning algorithms is that they learn from empirical data and can be used in cases when the modelled environmental phenomena are hidden, nonlinear, noisy and highly variable in space and in time. Most of the machines learning algorithms are universal and adaptive modelling tools developed to solve basic problems of learning from data: classification/pattern recognition, regression/mapping and probability density modelling. In the present report some of the widely used machine learning algorithms, namely artificial neural networks (ANN) of different architectures and Support Vector Machines (SVM), are adapted to the problems of the analysis and modelling of geo-spatial data. Machine learning algorithms have an important advantage over traditional models of spatial statistics when problems are considered in a high dimensional geo-feature spaces, when the dimension of space exceeds 5. Such features are usually generated, for example, from digital elevation models, remote sensing images, etc. An important extension of models concerns considering of real space constrains like geomorphology, networks, and other natural structures. Recent developments in semi-supervised learning can improve modelling of environmental phenomena taking into account on geo-manifolds. An important part of the study deals with the analysis of relevant variables and models' inputs. This problem is approached by using different feature selection/feature extraction nonlinear tools. To demonstrate the application of machine learning algorithms several interesting case studies are considered: digital soil mapping using SVM, automatic mapping of soil and water system pollution using ANN; natural hazards risk analysis (avalanches, landslides), assessments of renewable resources (wind fields) with SVM and ANN models, etc. The dimensionality of spaces considered varies from 2 to more than 30. Figures 1, 2, 3 demonstrate some results of the studies and their outputs. Finally, the results of environmental mapping are discussed and compared with traditional models of geostatistics.

Ultrasound Biomicroscopy Evaluation of Anterior Extension of Retinoblastomas : A Clinico-Pathological Study

Purpose: Extension of retinoblastoma cells anterior to the vitreous surface is a criteria used to categorize retinoblastomas in Group E. In some cases, the assessment of anterior chamber invasion is readily visible by slit lamp examination, but in other cases, invasion of the posterior chamber is clinically difficult to determinate. Ultrasound biomicroscopy (UBM) allows high-resolution images of the anterior segment and structures normally hidden from clinical visualization such as ciliary body, zonule or posterior chamber. This prompted us to evaluate the value of UBM in the assessment of posterior and anterior chamber involvement in patients with peripheral extending retinoblastomas. Methods: We retrospectively reviewed all retinoblastoma cases that underwent enucleation in our institution from 1.1996 till 12.2009 in which UBM ( 35-MHz or 50-MHz) evaluation was available. The UBM results were compared with the histopathological data. Results: From 1.1996 till 12.2009, 146 enucleations were performed in our institution. UBM information was available in 18 cases. There were 8 males and 10 females. The mean age was 4 years old. UBM allowed correct assessement of posterior chamber invasion in 15 cases (13 cases with retinoblastoma in the posterior chamber and 2 cases without retinoblastoma in the posterior chamber). There was a significant correlation between the presence of retinoblastoma cells in the posterior chamber detected by UBM and the histopathological confirmation of posterior chamber involvement (p=0,0008). The sensitivity of UBM in the assessment of posterior chamber invasion by retinoblastoma was 81% and the specificity 100%. UBM allowed correct assessment of anterior chamber invasion in 13 cases. The sensitivity of UBM for this purpose was 50% and the specificity 60 %. Conclusions: In selected cases of advanced retinoblastoma, UBM appears to represent a valuable tool in the evaluation of the precise extension of the disease. Although our series encompasses only a limited number of cases, the sensitivity and specificity of UBM in the assessment of retinoblastoma anterior extension is interesting. Further prospective multi-centered clinical studies would be necessary to better delineate the utility of this method in the precise categorization of retinoblastoma anterior extension

Development of place navigation in rats from weaning to puberty.

Young hooded rats were trained to escape onto a hidden platform after swimming in a pool of opaque water. Subjects 21, 28, 35, 42, and 64 days of age on the first training day were given 28 trials on 5 consecutive days. Half of the rats were required to localize the platform in relation to external room cues only ("place only" condition) and the other half were helped by the presence of a visible cue on the platform ("cue + place" condition). A deficiency in place navigation was observed in the 21- and 28-day groups; they showed slow escape and took circuitous routes more often than older rats. This deficiency was related to a poor spatial bias toward the training position when the subjects were allowed to swim for 30 s in the absence of the platform, at the end of the 28-trial training period (probe trial). The 35-day group showed adult-like learning ability in both training conditions, but failed to show searching behavior during the probe trial after having been trained in the presence of the proximal cue. Only rats older than 40 days showed typical adult behavior such as swimming directly toward the platform from any starting position and localized searching around the absent platform's position during the probe trial, no matter what the training conditions were. These results suggest that central nervous system structures responsible for place learning in the rat are functional from around 32 days of age, but fail to trigger searching behavior following cued training before the sixth week.