Predictive ability of severe rainfall events over Catalonia for the year 2008

This paper analyses the predictive ability of quantitative precipitation forecasts (QPF) and the so-called "poor-man" rainfall probabilistic forecasts (RPF). With this aim, the full set of warnings issued by the Meteorological Service of Catalonia (SMC) for potentially-dangerous events due to severe precipitation has been analysed for the year 2008. For each of the 37 warnings, the QPFs obtained from the limited-area model MM5 have been verified against hourly precipitation data provided by the rain gauge network covering Catalonia (NE of Spain), managed by SMC. For a group of five selected case studies, a QPF comparison has been undertaken between the MM5 and COSMO-I7 limited-area models. Although MM5's predictive ability has been examined for these five cases by making use of satellite data, this paper only shows in detail the heavy precipitation event on the 9¿10 May 2008. Finally, the "poor-man" rainfall probabilistic forecasts (RPF) issued by SMC at regional scale have also been tested against hourly precipitation observations. Verification results show that for long events (>24 h) MM5 tends to overestimate total precipitation, whereas for short events (¿24 h) the model tends instead to underestimate precipitation. The analysis of the five case studies concludes that most of MM5's QPF errors are mainly triggered by very poor representation of some of its cloud microphysical species, particularly the cloud liquid water and, to a lesser degree, the water vapor. The models' performance comparison demonstrates that MM5 and COSMO-I7 are on the same level of QPF skill, at least for the intense-rainfall events dealt with in the five case studies, whilst the warnings based on RPF issued by SMC have proven fairly correct when tested against hourly observed precipitation for 6-h intervals and at a small region scale. Throughout this study, we have only dealt with (SMC-issued) warning episodes in order to analyse deterministic (MM5 and COSMO-I7) and probabilistic (SMC) rainfall forecasts; therefore we have not taken into account those episodes that might (or might not) have been missed by the official SMC warnings. Therefore, whenever we talk about "misses", it is always in relation to the deterministic LAMs' QPFs.

Trends in indices of daily precipitation extremes in Catalonia (NE Spain), 1951-2003

The aim of this paper is to quantitatively characterize the climatology of daily precipitation indices in Catalonia (northeastern Iberian Peninsula) from 1951 to 2003. This work has been performed analyzing a subset of the ETCCDI (Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices) precipitation indices calculated from a new interpolated dataset of daily precipitation, namely SPAIN02, regular at 0.2° horizontal resolution (around 20 km) and from two high-quality stations: the Ebro and Fabra observatories. Using a jack-knife technique, we have found that the sampling error of the SPAIN02 regional averaged is relatively low. The trend analysis has been implemented using a Circular Block Bootstrap procedure applicable to non-normal distributions and autocorrelated series. A running trend analysis has been applied to analyze the trend persistence. No general trends at a regional scale are observed, considering the annual or the seasonal regional averaged series of all the indices for all the time windows considered. Only the consecutive dry days index (CDD) at annual scale shows a locally coherent spatial trend pattern; around 30% of the Catalonia area has experienced an increase of around 2¿3 days decade¿1. The Ebro and Fabra observatories show a similar CDD trend, mainly due to the summer contribution. Besides this, a significant decrease in total precipitation (around ¿10 mm decade¿1) and in the index "highest precipitation amount in five-day period" (RX5DAY, around ¿5 mm decade¿1), have been found in summer for the Ebro observatory.

Improving QPF by blending techniques at the Meteorological Service of Catalonia

The current operational very short-term and short-term quantitative precipitation forecast (QPF) at the Meteorological Service of Catalonia (SMC) is made by three different methodologies: Advection of the radar reflectivity field (ADV), Identification, tracking and forecasting of convective structures (CST) and numerical weather prediction (NWP) models using observational data assimilation (radar, satellite, etc.). These precipitation forecasts have different characteristics, lead time and spatial resolutions. The objective of this study is to combine these methods in order to obtain a single and optimized QPF at each lead time. This combination (blending) of the radar forecast (ADV and CST) and precipitation forecast from NWP model is carried out by means of different methodologies according to the prediction horizon. Firstly, in order to take advantage of the rainfall location and intensity from radar observations, a phase correction technique is applied to the NWP output to derive an additional corrected forecast (MCO). To select the best precipitation estimation in the first and second hour (t+1 h and t+2 h), the information from radar advection (ADV) and the corrected outputs from the model (MCO) are mixed by using different weights, which vary dynamically, according to indexes that quantify the quality of these predictions. This procedure has the ability to integrate the skill of rainfall location and patterns that are given by the advection of radar reflectivity field with the capacity of generating new precipitation areas from the NWP models. From the third hour (t+3 h), as radar-based forecasting has generally low skills, only the quantitative precipitation forecast from model is used. This blending of different sources of prediction is verified for different types of episodes (convective, moderately convective and stratiform) to obtain a robust methodology for implementing it in an operational and dynamic way.

The database industry in Catalonia: a ten year overview

Reviews growth in database production in Catalonia (ASCII, videotext, CD-ROM) over the past decade, with particular attention to the level of development, classification of producers, distribution, users and language. Examines the principal problems affecting the Catalan context: the lack of an informationand documentation policy, deficiencies in distribution of databases, the special situation in telecommunications, insufficient financial resources and the lack of specialized personnel.

Documentalist and librarian education in Catalonia

From its foundation in 1915, the Escola Universitaria de Biblioteconomia i Documentació (University School of Librarianship and Documentation) in Barcelona has been playing an important role in the training of professionals responsible for libraries. This paper describes the history, the situation in our days, and the trends for the future of the professional training of the librarians in Catalonia, with references to the rest of Spain.

Memòria final Catalunya i França: cors amics

Aquest projecte s'emmarca dins l'estudi i aplicació de la creativitat i la cultura mitjançant la difusió musical als àmbits de la divulgació i a l'articulació de programes de concert per part de possibles entitats que poguessin estar interessades en aprofundir i difondre al públic en general, els repertoris, autors i estils de la música coral que han estat a cavall d'ambdós territoris: Catalunya i França, al llarg de la història.

Are commuting and residential mobility decisions simultaneous? : the case of Catalonia (Spain)

In this paper we study the commuting and moving decisions of workers in Catalonia (Spain) and its evolution in the 1986-1996 period. Using a microdata sample from the 1991 Spanish Population Census, we estimate a simultaneous, discrete choice model of commuting and moves, thus indirectly addressing the home and job location decisions. The econometrical framework is a simultaneous, binary probit model with a commute equation and a move equation

A territorial model of commuting in Catalonia, 1986-1996

Commuting consists in the fact that an important fraction of workers in developed countries do not reside close to their workplaces but at long distances from them, so they have to travel to their jobs and then back home daily. Although most workers hold a job in the same municipality where they live or in a neighbouring one, an important fraction of workers face long daily trips to get to their workplace and then back home.Even if we divide Catalonia (Spain) in small aggregations of municipalities, trying to make them as close to local labour markets as possible, we will find out that some of them have a positive commuting balance, attracting many workers from other areas and providing local jobs for almost all their resident workers. On the other side, other zones seem to be mostly residential, so an important fraction of their resident workers hold jobs in different local labour markets. Which variables influence an area¿s role as an attraction pole or a residential zone? In previous papers (Artís et al, 1998a, 2000; Romaní, 1999) we have brought out the main individual variables that influence commuting by analysing a sample of Catalan workers and their commuting decisions. In this paper we perform an analysis of the territorial variables that influence commuting, using data for aggregate commuting flows in Catalonia from the 1991 and 1996 Spanish Population Censuses.These variables influence commuting in two different ways: a zone with a dense, welldeveloped economical structure will have a high density of jobs. Work demand cannot be fulfilled with resident workers, so it spills over local boundaries. On the other side, this economical activity has a series of side-effects like pollution, congestion or high land prices which make these areas less desirable to live in. Workers who can afford it may prefer to live in less populated, less congested zones, where they can find cheaper land, larger homes and a better quality of life. The penalty of this decision is an increased commuting time. Our aim in this paper is to highlight the influence of local economical structure and amenities endowment in the workplace-residence location decision. A place-to-place logit commuting models is estimated for 1991 and 1996 in order to find the economical and amenities variables with higher influence in commuting decisions. From these models, we can outline a first approximation to the evolution of these variables in the 1986-1996 period. Data have been obtained from aggregate flow travel-matrix from the 1986, 1991 and 1996 Spanish Population Censuses

Stratigraphic, sedimentological and palaeoenvironmental constraints on the rise of the Urgonian platform in the western Swiss Jura

Urgonian-type carbonates are a characteristic feature of many late Early Cretaceous shallow-marine, tropical and subtropical environments. The presence of typical photozoan carbonate-producing communities including corals and rudists indicates the prevalence of warm, transparent and presumably oligotrophic conditions in a period otherwise characterized by the high density of globally occurring anoxic episodes. Of particular interest, therefore, is the exploration of relationships between Urgonian platform growth and palaeoceanographic change. In the French and Swiss Jura Mountains, the onset and evolution of the Urgonian platform have been controversially dated, and a correlation with other, better dated, successions is correspondingly difficult. It is for this reason that the stratigraphy and sedimentology of a series of recently exposed sections (Eclepens, Vaumarcus and Neuchatel) and, in addition, the section of the Gorges de l'Areuse were analysed. Calcareous nannofossil biostratigraphy, the evolution of phosphorus contents of bulk rock, a sequence-stratigraphic interpretation and a correlation of drowning unconformities with better dated sections in the Helvetic Alps were used to constrain the age of the Urgonian platform. The sum of the data and field observations suggests the following evolution: during the Hauterivian, important outward and upward growth of a bioclastic and oolitic carbonate platform is documented in two sequences, separated by a phase of platform drowning during the late Early Hauterivian. Following these two phases of platform growth, a second drowning phase occurred during the latest Hauterivian and Early Barremian, which was accompanied by significant platform erosion and sediment reworking. The Late Barremian witnessed the renewed installation of a carbonate platform, which initiated with a phase of oolite production, and which progressively evolved into a typical Urgonian carbonate platform colonized by corals and rudists. This phase terminated at the latest in the middle Early Aptian, due to a further drowning event. The evolution of this particular platform segment is compatible with that of more distal and well-dated segments of the same northern Tethyan platform preserved in the Helvetic zone of the Alps and in the northern subalpine chains (Chartreuse and Vercors).

An agency-oriented model to explain vine-growing specialization in the province of Barcelona (Catalonia, Spain) in the mid-nineteenth century

[cat] En aquest treball presentem un model per explicar el procés d’especialització vitícola assolit als municipis de la província de Barcelona, a mitjans del s. XIX,que cerca entendre com va sorgir històricament un avantatge comparatiu fruit d’un procés que esdevindria un dels punts de partida del procés d’industrialització a Catalunya. Els resultats confirmen els papers jugats pel impuls “Boserupià” de la població en un context d’intensificació de l’ús de la terra, i d’un impuls del mercat “Smithià” en un context d’expansió de la demanda per part de les economies atlàntiques. També es posa de manifest la importància de les dotacions agro-ecològiques i les condicions socioinstitucionals relacionades amb la desigualtat d’ingrés. La difusió de la vinya donà com a resultat unes comunitats rurals menys desiguals fins al 1820, tot i que aquesta desigualtat augmentà de nou a partir d'aleshores.

Are commuting and residential mobility decisions simultaneous? : the case of Catalonia (Spain)

In this paper we study the commuting and moving decisions of workers in Catalonia (Spain) and its evolution in the 1986-1996 period. Using a microdata sample from the 1991 Spanish Population Census, we estimate a simultaneous, discrete choice model of commuting and moves, thus indirectly addressing the home and job location decisions. The econometrical framework is a simultaneous, binary probit model with a commute equation and a move equation

A territorial model of commuting in Catalonia, 1986-1996

Commuting consists in the fact that an important fraction of workers in developed countries do not reside close to their workplaces but at long distances from them, so they have to travel to their jobs and then back home daily. Although most workers hold a job in the same municipality where they live or in a neighbouring one, an important fraction of workers face long daily trips to get to their workplace and then back home.Even if we divide Catalonia (Spain) in small aggregations of municipalities, trying to make them as close to local labour markets as possible, we will find out that some of them have a positive commuting balance, attracting many workers from other areas and providing local jobs for almost all their resident workers. On the other side, other zones seem to be mostly residential, so an important fraction of their resident workers hold jobs in different local labour markets. Which variables influence an area¿s role as an attraction pole or a residential zone? In previous papers (Artís et al, 1998a, 2000; Romaní, 1999) we have brought out the main individual variables that influence commuting by analysing a sample of Catalan workers and their commuting decisions. In this paper we perform an analysis of the territorial variables that influence commuting, using data for aggregate commuting flows in Catalonia from the 1991 and 1996 Spanish Population Censuses.These variables influence commuting in two different ways: a zone with a dense, welldeveloped economical structure will have a high density of jobs. Work demand cannot be fulfilled with resident workers, so it spills over local boundaries. On the other side, this economical activity has a series of side-effects like pollution, congestion or high land prices which make these areas less desirable to live in. Workers who can afford it may prefer to live in less populated, less congested zones, where they can find cheaper land, larger homes and a better quality of life. The penalty of this decision is an increased commuting time. Our aim in this paper is to highlight the influence of local economical structure and amenities endowment in the workplace-residence location decision. A place-to-place logit commuting models is estimated for 1991 and 1996 in order to find the economical and amenities variables with higher influence in commuting decisions. From these models, we can outline a first approximation to the evolution of these variables in the 1986-1996 period. Data have been obtained from aggregate flow travel-matrix from the 1986, 1991 and 1996 Spanish Population Censuses

Características estratigráficas y sedimentológicas del 'Garumniense' en el sector de Ager (Pre-Pirineo, Lleida).

La sucesión estratigráfica de los depósitos continentales de la ' cuenca de Ager corresponde a sedimentos lacustres (Fm Massana), depósitos fluviales y de llanura de inundación (Fm. Figuerola), sedimentos lacustres (Fm. Milla) y una sucesión de materiales palustres, lacustres, fluviales, de lagunas evaponticas y aun mareales (Complejo de Perauba). Todos esos materiales fueron depositados en los diferentes medios sedimentarios citados que se desarrollaron en esa zona entre el Maastrichtiense y el Paleógeno inferior. En concreto, el tránsito entre el Cretácico y el Terciario (m)se produjo en uno de esos medios sedimentarios. Anteriormente se habia correlacionado ese límite con un nivel litoestratigráfico concreto (carbonatos de la Fm. Milla), pero actualmente se conoce que ese evento se produce en el tercio superior de la unidad tem'gena de la Fm. Figuerola. Los datos de paleomagnetismo sugieren que los dinosaunos y las carófitas cretácicas empezaron a desaparacer, en esta zona, unos dos millones de años antes que sucediera el evento asociado al límite K/T.

Origin of a restraining bend in an evolving strike-slip system: The Cenozoic As Pontes basin (NW Spain)

The As Pontes basin (12 km2), NW Iberian Peninsula, is bounded by a double restraining bend of a dextral strike-slip fault, which is related to the western onshore end of the Pyrenean belt. Surface and subsurface data obtained from intensive coal exploration and mining in the basin since the 1960s together with additional structural and stratigraphic sequence analysis allowed us to determine the geometric relationships between tectonic structures and stratigraphic markers. The small size of the basin and the large amount of quality data make the As Pontes basin a unique natural laboratory for improving our understanding of the origin and evolution of restraining bends. The double restraining bend is the end stage of the structural evolution of a compressive underlapping stepover, where the basin was formed. During the first stage (stepover stage), which began ca. 30 Ma ago (latest Rupelian) and lasted 3.4 My, two small isolated basins bounded by thrusts and normal faults were formed. For 1.3 My, the strike-slip faults, which defined the stepover, grew towards each other until joining and forming the double restraining bend, which bounds one large As Pontes basin (transition stage). The history of the basin was controlled by the activity of the double restraining bend for a further 3.4 My (restraining bend stage) and ended in mid-Aquitanian times (ca. 22 Ma).

Las capas de 'Bulimus gerundensis' Vidal de la región de Utiel (Valencia)

Se da cuenta de nuevos hallazgos del Bulimus gerundensis, Vidal, en la región de Utiel, estudiandose su situación estratigráfica, su relación con el Microcodium y su posible utilización paleogeográfica.