Wind ensamble forecasting using an adaptive mass-consistent model

[EN]Ensemble forecasting [1] is a methodology to deal with uncertainties in the numerical wind prediction. In this work we propose to apply ensemble methods to the adaptive wind forecasting model presented in [2]. The wind _eld forecasting is based on a mass-consistent model and a log-linear wind pro_le using as input data the resulting forecast wind from Harmonie [3], a Non-Hydrostatic Dynamic model. The mass-consistent model parameters are estimated by using genetic algorithms [4]. The mesh is generated using the meccano method [5] and adapted to the geometry. The main source of uncertainties in this model is the parameter estimation and the in- trinsic uncertainties of the Harmonie Model…

Ensemble wind forecasting based on the HARMONIE model and adaptive finite elements in complex orography

[EN]Ensemble forecasting is a methodology to deal with uncertainties in the numerical wind prediction. In this work we propose to apply ensemble methods to the adaptive wind forecasting model presented in. The wind field forecasting is based on a mass-consistent model and a log-linear wind profile using as input data the resulting forecast wind from Harmonie, a Non-Hydrostatic Dynamic model used experimentally at AEMET with promising results. The mass-consistent model parameters are estimated by using genetic algorithms. The mesh is generated using the meccano method and adapted to the geometry…

Metodi di ottimizzazione morfologica nel progetto preliminare di propulsori aeronautici avanzati

The aim of this Doctoral Thesis is to develop a genetic algorithm based optimization methods to find the best conceptual design architecture of an aero-piston-engine, for given design specifications. Nowadays, the conceptual design of turbine airplanes starts with the aircraft specifications, then the most suited turbofan or turbo propeller for the specific application is chosen. In the aeronautical piston engines field, which has been dormant for several decades, as interest shifted towards turboaircraft, new materials with increased performance and properties have opened new possibilities for development. Moreover, the engine’s modularity given by the cylinder unit, makes it possible to design a specific engine for a given application. In many real engineering problems the amount of design variables may be very high, characterized by several non-linearities needed to describe the behaviour of the phenomena. In this case the objective function has many local extremes, but the designer is usually interested in the global one. The stochastic and the evolutionary optimization techniques, such as the genetic algorithms method, may offer reliable solutions to the design problems, within acceptable computational time. The optimization algorithm developed here can be employed in the first phase of the preliminary project of an aeronautical piston engine design. It’s a mono-objective genetic algorithm, which, starting from the given design specifications, finds the engine propulsive system configuration which possesses minimum mass while satisfying the geometrical, structural and performance constraints. The algorithm reads the project specifications as input data, namely the maximum values of crankshaft and propeller shaft speed and the maximal pressure value in the combustion chamber. The design variables bounds, that describe the solution domain from the geometrical point of view, are introduced too. In the Matlab® Optimization environment the objective function to be minimized is defined as the sum of the masses of the engine propulsive components. Each individual that is generated by the genetic algorithm is the assembly of the flywheel, the vibration damper and so many pistons, connecting rods, cranks, as the number of the cylinders. The fitness is evaluated for each individual of the population, then the rules of the genetic operators are applied, such as reproduction, mutation, selection, crossover. In the reproduction step the elitist method is applied, in order to save the fittest individuals from a contingent mutation and recombination disruption, making it undamaged survive until the next generation. Finally, as the best individual is found, the optimal dimensions values of the components are saved to an Excel® file, in order to build a CAD-automatic-3D-model for each component of the propulsive system, having a direct pre-visualization of the final product, still in the engine’s preliminary project design phase. With the purpose of showing the performance of the algorithm and validating this optimization method, an actual engine is taken, as a case study: it’s the 1900 JTD Fiat Avio, 4 cylinders, 4T, Diesel. Many verifications are made on the mechanical components of the engine, in order to test their feasibility and to decide their survival through generations. A system of inequalities is used to describe the non-linear relations between the design variables, and is used for components checking for static and dynamic loads configurations. The design variables geometrical boundaries are taken from actual engines data and similar design cases. Among the many simulations run for algorithm testing, twelve of them have been chosen as representative of the distribution of the individuals. Then, as an example, for each simulation, the corresponding 3D models of the crankshaft and the connecting rod, have been automatically built. In spite of morphological differences among the component the mass is almost the same. The results show a significant mass reduction (almost 20% for the crankshaft) in comparison to the original configuration, and an acceptable robustness of the method have been shown. The algorithm here developed is shown to be a valid method for an aeronautical-piston-engine preliminary project design optimization. In particular the procedure is able to analyze quite a wide range of design solutions, rejecting the ones that cannot fulfill the feasibility design specifications. This optimization algorithm could increase the aeronautical-piston-engine development, speeding up the production rate and joining modern computation performances and technological awareness to the long lasting traditional design experiences.

A numerical methodology for the multi-objective optimization of the DI Diesel engine combustion

DI Diesel engine are widely used both for industrial and automotive applications due to their durability and fuel economy. Nonetheless, increasing environmental concerns force that type of engine to comply with increasingly demanding emission limits, so that, it has become mandatory to develop a robust design methodology of the DI Diesel combustion system focused on reduction of soot and NOx simultaneously while maintaining a reasonable fuel economy. In recent years, genetic algorithms and CFD three-dimensional combustion simulations have been successfully applied to that kind of problem. However, combining GAs optimization with actual CFD three-dimensional combustion simulations can be too onerous since a large number of calculations is usually needed for the genetic algorithm to converge, resulting in a high computational cost and, thus, limiting the suitability of this method for industrial processes. In order to make the optimization process less time-consuming, CFD simulations can be more conveniently used to generate a training set for the learning process of an artificial neural network which, once correctly trained, can be used to forecast the engine outputs as a function of the design parameters during a GA optimization performing a so-called virtual optimization. In the current work, a numerical methodology for the multi-objective virtual optimization of the combustion of an automotive DI Diesel engine, which relies on artificial neural networks and genetic algorithms, was developed.

A multifactorial analysis of obesity as CVD risk factor: use of neural network based methods in a nutrigenetics context

Obesity is a multifactorial trait, which comprises an independent risk factor for cardiovascular disease (CVD). The aim of the current work is to study the complex etiology beneath obesity and identify genetic variations and/or factors related to nutrition that contribute to its variability. To this end, a set of more than 2300 white subjects who participated in a nutrigenetics study was used. For each subject a total of 63 factors describing genetic variants related to CVD (24 in total), gender, and nutrition (38 in total), e.g. average daily intake in calories and cholesterol, were measured. Each subject was categorized according to body mass index (BMI) as normal (BMI ≤ 25) or overweight (BMI > 25). Two artificial neural network (ANN) based methods were designed and used towards the analysis of the available data. These corresponded to i) a multi-layer feed-forward ANN combined with a parameter decreasing method (PDM-ANN), and ii) a multi-layer feed-forward ANN trained by a hybrid method (GA-ANN) which combines genetic algorithms and the popular back-propagation training algorithm.

Simulating the evolution of a clonal trait in plants with sexual and vegetative reproduction

Aims Phenotypic optimality models neglect genetics. However, especially when heterozygous genotypes ire fittest, evolving allele, genotype and phenotype frequencies may not correspond to predicted optima. This was not previously addressed for organisms with complex life histories. Methods Therefore, we modelled the evolution of a fitness-relevant trait of clonal plants, stolon internode length. We explored the likely case of air asymmetric unimodal fitness profile with three model types. In constant selection models (CSMs), which are gametic, but not spatially explicit, evolving allele frequencies in the one-locus and five-loci cases did not correspond to optimum stolon internode length predicted by the spatially explicit, but not gametic, phenotypic model. This deviation was due to the asymmetry of the fitness profile. Gametic, spatially explicit individual-based (SEIB) modeling allowed us relaxing the CSM assumptions of constant selection with exclusively sexual reproduction. Important findings For entirely vegetative or sexual reproduction, predictions. of the gametic SEIB model were close to the ones of spatially explicit CSMs gametic phenotypic models, hut for mixed modes of reproduction they appoximated those of gametic, not spatially explicit CSMs. Thus, in contrast to gametic SEIB models, phenotypic models and, especially for few loci, also CSMs can be very misleading. We conclude that the evolution of trails governed by few quantitative trait loci appears hardly predictable by simple models, that genetic algorithms aiming at technical optimization may actually, miss the optimum and that selection may lead to loci with smaller effects, in derived compared with ancestral lines.

Computer-aided diagnosis of carotid atherosclerosis based on ultrasound image statistics, laws' texture and neural networks

Quantitative characterisation of carotid atherosclerosis and classification into symptomatic or asymptomatic is crucial in planning optimal treatment of atheromatous plaque. The computer-aided diagnosis (CAD) system described in this paper can analyse ultrasound (US) images of carotid artery and classify them into symptomatic or asymptomatic based on their echogenicity characteristics. The CAD system consists of three modules: a) the feature extraction module, where first-order statistical (FOS) features and Laws' texture energy can be estimated, b) the dimensionality reduction module, where the number of features can be reduced using analysis of variance (ANOVA), and c) the classifier module consisting of a neural network (NN) trained by a novel hybrid method based on genetic algorithms (GAs) along with the back propagation algorithm. The hybrid method is able to select the most robust features, to adjust automatically the NN architecture and to optimise the classification performance. The performance is measured by the accuracy, sensitivity, specificity and the area under the receiver-operating characteristic (ROC) curve. The CAD design and development is based on images from 54 symptomatic and 54 asymptomatic plaques. This study demonstrates the ability of a CAD system based on US image analysis and a hybrid trained NN to identify atheromatous plaques at high risk of stroke.

A computer-aided diagnostic system to characterize CT focal liver lesions: design and optimization of a neural network classifier

In this paper, a computer-aided diagnostic (CAD) system for the classification of hepatic lesions from computed tomography (CT) images is presented. Regions of interest (ROIs) taken from nonenhanced CT images of normal liver, hepatic cysts, hemangiomas, and hepatocellular carcinomas have been used as input to the system. The proposed system consists of two modules: the feature extraction and the classification modules. The feature extraction module calculates the average gray level and 48 texture characteristics, which are derived from the spatial gray-level co-occurrence matrices, obtained from the ROIs. The classifier module consists of three sequentially placed feed-forward neural networks (NNs). The first NN classifies into normal or pathological liver regions. The pathological liver regions are characterized by the second NN as cyst or "other disease." The third NN classifies "other disease" into hemangioma or hepatocellular carcinoma. Three feature selection techniques have been applied to each individual NN: the sequential forward selection, the sequential floating forward selection, and a genetic algorithm for feature selection. The comparative study of the above dimensionality reduction methods shows that genetic algorithms result in lower dimension feature vectors and improved classification performance.

Activation of heat shock and antioxidant responses by the natural product celastrol: transcriptional signatures of a thiol-targeted molecule.

Stress response pathways allow cells to sense and respond to environmental changes and adverse pathophysiological states. Pharmacological modulation of cellular stress pathways has implications in the treatment of human diseases, including neurodegenerative disorders, cardiovascular disease, and cancer. The quinone methide triterpene celastrol, derived from a traditional Chinese medicinal herb, has numerous pharmacological properties, and it is a potent activator of the mammalian heat shock transcription factor HSF1. However, its mode of action and spectrum of cellular targets are poorly understood. We show here that celastrol activates Hsf1 in Saccharomyces cerevisiae at a similar effective concentration seen in mammalian cells. Transcriptional profiling revealed that celastrol treatment induces a battery of oxidant defense genes in addition to heat shock genes. Celastrol activated the yeast Yap1 oxidant defense transcription factor via the carboxy-terminal redox center that responds to electrophilic compounds. Antioxidant response genes were likewise induced in mammalian cells, demonstrating that the activation of two major cell stress pathways by celastrol is conserved. We report that celastrol's biological effects, including inhibition of glucocorticoid receptor activity, can be blocked by the addition of excess free thiol, suggesting a chemical mechanism for biological activity based on modification of key reactive thiols by this natural product.

Multi-Model Data Fusion to Improve an Early Warning System for Hypo-/Hyperglycemic Events

Correct predictions of future blood glucose levels in individuals with Type 1 Diabetes (T1D) can be used to provide early warning of upcoming hypo-/hyperglycemic events and thus to improve the patient's safety. To increase prediction accuracy and efficiency, various approaches have been proposed which combine multiple predictors to produce superior results compared to single predictors. Three methods for model fusion are presented and comparatively assessed. Data from 23 T1D subjects under sensor-augmented pump (SAP) therapy were used in two adaptive data-driven models (an autoregressive model with output correction - cARX, and a recurrent neural network - RNN). Data fusion techniques based on i) Dempster-Shafer Evidential Theory (DST), ii) Genetic Algorithms (GA), and iii) Genetic Programming (GP) were used to merge the complimentary performances of the prediction models. The fused output is used in a warning algorithm to issue alarms of upcoming hypo-/hyperglycemic events. The fusion schemes showed improved performance with lower root mean square errors, lower time lags, and higher correlation. In the warning algorithm, median daily false alarms (DFA) of 0.25%, and 100% correct alarms (CA) were obtained for both event types. The detection times (DT) before occurrence of events were 13.0 and 12.1 min respectively for hypo-/hyperglycemic events. Compared to the cARX and RNN models, and a linear fusion of the two, the proposed fusion schemes represents a significant improvement.

Modeling Techniques for the High-Resolution Interpretation of Cryo-Electron Microscopy Reconstructions

Essential biological processes are governed by organized, dynamic interactions between multiple biomolecular systems. Complexes are thus formed to enable the biological function and get dissembled as the process is completed. Examples of such processes include the translation of the messenger RNA into protein by the ribosome, the folding of proteins by chaperonins or the entry of viruses in host cells. Understanding these fundamental processes by characterizing the molecular mechanisms that enable then, would allow the (better) design of therapies and drugs. Such molecular mechanisms may be revealed trough the structural elucidation of the biomolecular assemblies at the core of these processes. Various experimental techniques may be applied to investigate the molecular architecture of biomolecular assemblies. High-resolution techniques, such as X-ray crystallography, may solve the atomic structure of the system, but are typically constrained to biomolecules of reduced flexibility and dimensions. In particular, X-ray crystallography requires the sample to form a three dimensional (3D) crystal lattice which is technically di‑cult, if not impossible, to obtain, especially for large, dynamic systems. Often these techniques solve the structure of the different constituent components within the assembly, but encounter difficulties when investigating the entire system. On the other hand, imaging techniques, such as cryo-electron microscopy (cryo-EM), are able to depict large systems in near-native environment, without requiring the formation of crystals. The structures solved by cryo-EM cover a wide range of resolutions, from very low level of detail where only the overall shape of the system is visible, to high-resolution that approach, but not yet reach, atomic level of detail. In this dissertation, several modeling methods are introduced to either integrate cryo-EM datasets with structural data from X-ray crystallography, or to directly interpret the cryo-EM reconstruction. Such computational techniques were developed with the goal of creating an atomic model for the cryo-EM data. The low-resolution reconstructions lack the level of detail to permit a direct atomic interpretation, i.e. one cannot reliably locate the atoms or amino-acid residues within the structure obtained by cryo-EM. Thereby one needs to consider additional information, for example, structural data from other sources such as X-ray crystallography, in order to enable such a high-resolution interpretation. Modeling techniques are thus developed to integrate the structural data from the different biophysical sources, examples including the work described in the manuscript I and II of this dissertation. At intermediate and high-resolution, cryo-EM reconstructions depict consistent 3D folds such as tubular features which in general correspond to alpha-helices. Such features can be annotated and later on used to build the atomic model of the system, see manuscript III as alternative. Three manuscripts are presented as part of the PhD dissertation, each introducing a computational technique that facilitates the interpretation of cryo-EM reconstructions. The first manuscript is an application paper that describes a heuristics to generate the atomic model for the protein envelope of the Rift Valley fever virus. The second manuscript introduces the evolutionary tabu search strategies to enable the integration of multiple component atomic structures with the cryo-EM map of their assembly. Finally, the third manuscript develops further the latter technique and apply it to annotate consistent 3D patterns in intermediate-resolution cryo-EM reconstructions. The first manuscript, titled An assembly model for Rift Valley fever virus, was submitted for publication in the Journal of Molecular Biology. The cryo-EM structure of the Rift Valley fever virus was previously solved at 27Å-resolution by Dr. Freiberg and collaborators. Such reconstruction shows the overall shape of the virus envelope, yet the reduced level of detail prevents the direct atomic interpretation. High-resolution structures are not yet available for the entire virus nor for the two different component glycoproteins that form its envelope. However, homology models may be generated for these glycoproteins based on similar structures that are available at atomic resolutions. The manuscript presents the steps required to identify an atomic model of the entire virus envelope, based on the low-resolution cryo-EM map of the envelope and the homology models of the two glycoproteins. Starting with the results of the exhaustive search to place the two glycoproteins, the model is built iterative by running multiple multi-body refinements to hierarchically generate models for the different regions of the envelope. The generated atomic model is supported by prior knowledge regarding virus biology and contains valuable information about the molecular architecture of the system. It provides the basis for further investigations seeking to reveal different processes in which the virus is involved such as assembly or fusion. The second manuscript was recently published in the of Journal of Structural Biology (doi:10.1016/j.jsb.2009.12.028) under the title Evolutionary tabu search strategies for the simultaneous registration of multiple atomic structures in cryo-EM reconstructions. This manuscript introduces the evolutionary tabu search strategies applied to enable a multi-body registration. This technique is a hybrid approach that combines a genetic algorithm with a tabu search strategy to promote the proper exploration of the high-dimensional search space. Similar to the Rift Valley fever virus, it is common that the structure of a large multi-component assembly is available at low-resolution from cryo-EM, while high-resolution structures are solved for the different components but lack for the entire system. Evolutionary tabu search strategies enable the building of an atomic model for the entire system by considering simultaneously the different components. Such registration indirectly introduces spatial constrains as all components need to be placed within the assembly, enabling the proper docked in the low-resolution map of the entire assembly. Along with the method description, the manuscript covers the validation, presenting the benefit of the technique in both synthetic and experimental test cases. Such approach successfully docked multiple components up to resolutions of 40Å. The third manuscript is entitled Evolutionary Bidirectional Expansion for the Annotation of Alpha Helices in Electron Cryo-Microscopy Reconstructions and was submitted for publication in the Journal of Structural Biology. The modeling approach described in this manuscript applies the evolutionary tabu search strategies in combination with the bidirectional expansion to annotate secondary structure elements in intermediate resolution cryo-EM reconstructions. In particular, secondary structure elements such as alpha helices show consistent patterns in cryo-EM data, and are visible as rod-like patterns of high density. The evolutionary tabu search strategy is applied to identify the placement of the different alpha helices, while the bidirectional expansion characterizes their length and curvature. The manuscript presents the validation of the approach at resolutions ranging between 6 and 14Å, a level of detail where alpha helices are visible. Up to resolution of 12 Å, the method measures sensitivities between 70-100% as estimated in experimental test cases, i.e. 70-100% of the alpha-helices were correctly predicted in an automatic manner in the experimental data. The three manuscripts presented in this PhD dissertation cover different computation methods for the integration and interpretation of cryo-EM reconstructions. The methods were developed in the molecular modeling software Sculptor (http://sculptor.biomachina.org) and are available for the scientific community interested in the multi-resolution modeling of cryo-EM data. The work spans a wide range of resolution covering multi-body refinement and registration at low-resolution along with annotation of consistent patterns at high-resolution. Such methods are essential for the modeling of cryo-EM data, and may be applied in other fields where similar spatial problems are encountered, such as medical imaging.

Dealing with Semantic Heterogeneity Issues on the Web

The Semantic Web is an extension of the traditional Web in which meaning of information is well defined, thus allowing a better interaction between people and computers. To accomplish its goals, mechanisms are required to make explicit the semantics of Web resources, to be automatically processed by software agents (this semantics being described by means of online ontologies). Nevertheless, issues arise caused by the semantic heterogeneity that naturally happens on the Web, namely redundancy and ambiguity. For tackling these issues, we present an approach to discover and represent, in a non-redundant way, the intended meaning of words in Web applications, while taking into account the (often unstructured) context in which they appear. To that end, we have developed novel ontology matching, clustering, and disambiguation techniques. Our work is intended to help bridge the gap between syntax and semantics for the Semantic Web construction

Semantic Heterogeneity Issues on the Web

The Semantic Web is an extension of the traditional Web in which meaning of information is well defined, thus allowing a better interaction between people and computers. To accomplish its goals, mechanisms are required to make explicit the semantics of Web resources, to be automatically processed by software agents (this semantics being described by means of online ontologies). Nevertheless, issues arise caused by the semantic heterogeneity that naturally happens on the Web, namely redundancy and ambiguity. For tackling these issues, we present an approach to discover and represent, in a non-redundant way, the intended meaning of words in Web applications, while taking into account the (often unstructured) context in which they appear. To that end, we have developed novel ontology matching, clustering, and disambiguation techniques. Our work is intended to help bridge the gap between syntax and semantics for the Semantic Web construction.

Performance of artificial neural networks and genetical evolved artificial neural networks unfolding techniques

With the Bonner spheres spectrometer neutron spectrum is obtained through an unfolding procedure. Monte Carlo methods, Regularization, Parametrization, Least-squares, and Maximum Entropy are some of the techniques utilized for unfolding. In the last decade methods based on Artificial Intelligence Technology have been used. Approaches based on Genetic Algorithms and Artificial Neural Networks have been developed in order to overcome the drawbacks of previous techniques. Nevertheless the advantages of Artificial Neural Networks still it has some drawbacks mainly in the design process of the network, vg the optimum selection of the architectural and learning ANN parameters. In recent years the use of hybrid technologies, combining Artificial Neural Networks and Genetic Algorithms, has been utilized to. In this work, several ANN topologies were trained and tested using Artificial Neural Networks and Genetically Evolved Artificial Neural Networks in the aim to unfold neutron spectra using the count rates of a Bonner sphere spectrometer. Here, a comparative study of both procedures has been carried out.

Control motion approach of a lower limb orthosis to reduce energy consumption

By analysing the dynamic principles of the human gait, an economic gait‐control analysis is performed, and passive elements are included to increase the energy efficiency in the motion control of active orthoses. Traditional orthoses use position patterns from the clinical gait analyses (CGAs) of healthy people, which are then de‐normalized and adjusted to each user. These orthoses maintain a very rigid gait, and their energy cosT is very high, reducing the autonomy of the user. First, to take advantage of the inherent dynamics of the legs, a state machine pattern with different gains in eachstate is applied to reduce the actuator energy consumption. Next, different passive elements, such as springs and brakes in the joints, are analysed to further reduce energy consumption. After an off‐line parameter optimization and a heuristic improvement with genetic algorithms, a reduction in energy consumption of 16.8% is obtained by applying a state machine control pattern, and a reduction of 18.9% is obtained by using passive elements. Finally, by combining both strategies, a more natural gait is obtained, and energy consumption is reduced by 24.6%compared with a pure CGA pattern.