Developing methodologies to allow the robust prediction dynamic context dominated by perturbations

El principal objectiu del projecte era desenvolupar millores conceptuals i metodològiques que permetessin una millor predicció dels canvis en la distribució de les espècies (a una escala de paisatge) derivats de canvis ambientals en un context dominat per pertorbacions. En un primer estudi, vàrem comparar l'eficàcia de diferents models dinàmics per a predir la distribució de l'hortolà (Emberiza hortulana). Els nostres resultats indiquen que un model híbrid que combini canvis en la qualitat de l'hàbitat, derivats de canvis en el paisatge, amb un model poblacional espacialment explícit és una aproximació adequada per abordar canvis en la distribució d'espècies en contextos de dinàmica ambiental elevada i una capacitat de dispersió limitada de l'espècie objectiu. En un segon estudi abordarem la calibració mitjançant dades de seguiment de models de distribució dinàmics per a 12 espècies amb preferència per hàbitats oberts. Entre les conclusions extretes destaquem: (1) la necessitat de que les dades de seguiment abarquin aquelles àrees on es produeixen els canvis de qualitat; (2) el biaix que es produeix en la estimació dels paràmetres del model d'ocupació quan la hipòtesi de canvi de paisatge o el model de qualitat d'hàbitat són incorrectes. En el darrer treball estudiarem el possible impacte en 67 espècies d’ocells de diferents règims d’incendis, definits a partir de combinacions de nivells de canvi climàtic (portant a un augment esperat de la mida i freqüència d’incendis forestals), i eficiència d’extinció per part dels bombers. Segons els resultats dels nostres models, la combinació de factors antropogènics del regim d’incendis, tals com l’abandonament rural i l’extinció, poden ser més determinants per als canvis de distribució que els efectes derivats del canvi climàtic. Els productes generats inclouen tres publicacions científiques, una pàgina web amb resultats del projecte i una llibreria per a l'entorn estadístic R.

Combined Report on the Institutions Under the Control of the Iowa Department of Corrections, Schedules, Findings and Recommendations, June 30, 2004

State Audit Reports

Audit report on America's Agricultural Industrial Heritage Landscape Inc., D/B/A Silos and Smokestacks National Heritage Area, Independent Auditor's Reports, Financial Statements and Supplementary Information, Schedule of Findings and Questioned Costs, December 31, 2004 & 2005

Other Audit Reports - 28E Organizations

Productivity Growth during the English Industrial Revolution: A Dual Approach

This paper presents new estimates of total factor productivity growth in Britain for the period 1770-1860. We use a dual technique recently popularized by Hsieh (1999), and argue that the estimates we derive from factor prices are of similar quality to quantity-based calculations. Our results provide further evidence, derived from this independent set of sources, that productivity growth during the British Industrial Revolution was relatively slow. During the years 1770-1800, TFP growth was close to zero, according to our estimates. The period 1800-1830 experienced an acceleration of productivity growth. The Crafts-Harley view of the Industrial Revolution is thus reinforced. We also consider alternative explanations of slow productivity growth, and reject the interpretation that focuses on the introduction of steam as a general purpose technology.

On Certain Greedoid Polyhedra, Partially Indexable Scheduling Problems, and Extended Restless Bandit Allocation Indices

We present a polyhedral framework for establishing general structural properties on optimal solutions of stochastic scheduling problems, where multiple job classes vie for service resources: the existence of an optimal priority policy in a given family, characterized by a greedoid (whose feasible class subsets may receive higher priority), where optimal priorities are determined by class-ranking indices, under restricted linear performance objectives (partial indexability). This framework extends that of Bertsimas and Niño-Mora (1996), which explained the optimality of priority-index policies under all linear objectives (general indexability). We show that, if performance measures satisfy partial conservation laws (with respect to the greedoid), which extend previous generalized conservation laws, then the problem admits a strong LP relaxation over a so-called extended greedoid polytope, which has strong structural and algorithmic properties. We present an adaptive-greedy algorithm (which extends Klimov's) taking as input the linear objective coefficients, which (1) determines whether the optimal LP solution is achievable by a policy in the given family; and (2) if so, computes a set of class-ranking indices that characterize optimal priority policies in the family. In the special case of project scheduling, we show that, under additional conditions, the optimal indices can be computed separately for each project (index decomposition). We further apply the framework to the important restless bandit model (two-action Markov decision chains), obtaining new index policies, that extend Whittle's (1988), and simple sufficient conditions for their validity. These results highlight the power of polyhedral methods (the so-called achievable region approach) in dynamic and stochastic optimization.

Combined Report on the Institutions under the control of the Iowa Department of Human Services, Schedules, Findings and Recommendations, June 30, 2005

State Audit Reports

Combined Report on the Institutions under the control of the Iowa Department of Corrections, Schedules, Findings and Recommendations, June 30, 2005

State Audit Reports

Audit report on the Heart of Iowa Regional Transit Agency, Des Moines, for the year ended June 30, 2006

Audit report on the Heart of Iowa Regional Transit Agency, Des Moines, for the year ended June 30, 2006.

Audit report on the City of Durant, Iowa for the year ended June 30, 2006

Audit report on the City of Durant, Iowa for the year ended June 30, 2006.

Audit report on the City of Mount Ayr, Iowa for the year ended June 30, 2006.

Audit report on the City of Mount Ayr, Iowa for the year ended June 30, 2006.

Audit report on Pocahontas County, Iowa for the year ended June 30, 2006.

Audit report on Pocahontas County, Iowa for the year ended June 30, 2006.

Audit report on applying agreed-upon procedures for the City of Linden’s compliance with road use tax requirements for the period July 1, 1999 through June 30, 2004

Audit report on applying agreed-upon procedures for the City of Linden’s compliance with road use tax requirements for the period July 1, 1999 through June 30, 2004

Audit report on the Iowa Civil Rights Commission for the year ended June 30, 2006

Audit report on the Iowa Civil Rights Commission for the year ended June 30, 2006

Audit report on the Iowa Department of Veterans Affairs for the year ended June 30, 2006

Audit report on the Iowa Department of Veterans Affairs for the year ended June 30, 2006

Audit report on the Iowa Judicial Retirement System for the year ended June 30, 2006

Audit report on the Iowa Judicial Retirement System for the year ended June 30, 2006