Performance of state space and ARIMA models for consumer retail sales forecasting

Forecasting future sales is one of the most important issues that is beyond all strategic and planning decisions in effective operations of retail businesses. For profitable retail businesses, accurate demand forecasting is crucial in organizing and planning production, purchasing, transportation and labor force. Retail sales series belong to a special type of time series that typically contain trend and seasonal patterns, presenting challenges in developing effective forecasting models. This work compares the forecasting performance of state space models and ARIMA models. The forecasting performance is demonstrated through a case study of retail sales of five different categories of women footwear: Boots, Booties, Flats, Sandals and Shoes. On both methodologies the model with the minimum value of Akaike's Information Criteria for the in-sample period was selected from all admissible models for further evaluation in the out-of-sample. Both one-step and multiple-step forecasts were produced. The results show that when an automatic algorithm the overall out-of-sample forecasting performance of state space and ARIMA models evaluated via RMSE, MAE and MAPE is quite similar on both one-step and multi-step forecasts. We also conclude that state space and ARIMA produce coverage probabilities that are close to the nominal rates for both one-step and multi-step forecasts.

Tuple-based morphisms for interoperability establishment of financial information models

Dissertação apresentada na Faculdade de Ciências e Tecnologia da Universidade Nova de Lisboa para obtenção do grau de Mestre em Engenharia Electrotécnica e Computadores

ANIMAL MODELS FOR THE STUDY OF LEISHMANIASIS IMMUNOLOGY

Leishmaniasis remains a major public health problem worldwide and is classified as Category I by the TDR/WHO, mainly due to the absence of control. Many experimental models like rodents, dogs and monkeys have been developed, each with specific features, in order to characterize the immune response to Leishmania species, but none reproduces the pathology observed in human disease. Conflicting data may arise in part because different parasite strains or species are being examined, different tissue targets (mice footpad, ear, or base of tail) are being infected, and different numbers (“low” 1×102 and “high” 1×106) of metacyclic promastigotes have been inoculated. Recently, new approaches have been proposed to provide more meaningful data regarding the host response and pathogenesis that parallels human disease. The use of sand fly saliva and low numbers of parasites in experimental infections has led to mimic natural transmission and find new molecules and immune mechanisms which should be considered when designing vaccines and control strategies. Moreover, the use of wild rodents as experimental models has been proposed as a good alternative for studying the host-pathogen relationships and for testing candidate vaccines. To date, using natural reservoirs to study Leishmania infection has been challenging because immunologic reagents for use in wild rodents are lacking. This review discusses the principal immunological findings against Leishmania infection in different animal models highlighting the importance of using experimental conditions similar to natural transmission and reservoir species as experimental models to study the immunopathology of the disease.

Landslide susceptibility assessment in Karanganyar regency - Indonesia - Comparison of knowledge-based and Data-driven Models

Dissertation submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the Degree of Master of Science in Geospatial Technologies.

Esclonamento de máquinas de cogeração utilzando programação inteira mista

As centrais termoelétricas convencionais convertem apenas parte do combustível consumido na produção de energia elétrica, sendo que outra parte resulta em perdas sob a forma de calor. Neste sentido, surgiram as unidades de cogeração, ou Combined Heat and Power (CHP), que permitem reaproveitar a energia dissipada sob a forma de energia térmica e disponibilizá-la, em conjunto com a energia elétrica gerada, para consumo doméstico ou industrial, tornando-as mais eficientes que as unidades convencionais Os custos de produção de energia elétrica e de calor das unidades CHP são representados por uma função não-linear e apresentam uma região de operação admissível que pode ser convexa ou não-convexa, dependendo das caraterísticas de cada unidade. Por estas razões, a modelação de unidades CHP no âmbito do escalonamento de geradores elétricos (na literatura inglesa Unit Commitment Problem (UCP)) tem especial relevância para as empresas que possuem, também, este tipo de unidades. Estas empresas têm como objetivo definir, entre as unidades CHP e as unidades que apenas geram energia elétrica ou calor, quais devem ser ligadas e os respetivos níveis de produção para satisfazer a procura de energia elétrica e de calor a um custo mínimo. Neste documento são propostos dois modelos de programação inteira mista para o UCP com inclusão de unidades de cogeração: um modelo não-linear que inclui a função real de custo de produção das unidades CHP e um modelo que propõe uma linearização da referida função baseada na combinação convexa de um número pré-definido de pontos extremos. Em ambos os modelos a região de operação admissível não-convexa é modelada através da divisão desta àrea em duas àreas convexas distintas. Testes computacionais efetuados com ambos os modelos para várias instâncias permitiram verificar a eficiência do modelo linear proposto. Este modelo permitiu obter as soluções ótimas do modelo não-linear com tempos computationais significativamente menores. Para além disso, ambos os modelos foram testados com e sem a inclusão de restrições de tomada e deslastre de carga, permitindo concluir que este tipo de restrições aumenta a complexidade do problema sendo que o tempo computacional exigido para a resolução do mesmo cresce significativamente.

Algorithm for the Parkinson’s disease behavioural models characterization using a biosensor

Dissertação para obtenção do Grau de Mestre em Engenharia Biomédica

Development of novel human cellular models for neurotoxicity studies

Dissertation to obtain master degree in Genética Molecular e Biomedicina

Analysis of mental health service financial models with a particular emphasis of Ireland

ABSTRACT: Financing is a critical factor in ensuring the optimal development and delivery of a mental health system. The primary method of financing worldwide is tax-based. However many low income countries depend on out-of-pocket payments. There is a report on Irish Health Care funding but none that deals exclusively with mental health care. This paper analyses the various financial models that exist globally with respect to financing the mental health sector, examines the impact of various models on service users, especially in terms of relative ‘financial burden’ and provides a more detailed examination of the current mental health funding situation in Ireland After extensive internet and hardcopy research on the above topics, the findings were analysed and a number of recommendations were reached. Mental health service should be free at the point of delivery to achieve universal coverage. Government tax-based funding or mandatory social insurance with government top-ups, as required, appears the optimal option, although there is no one funding system applicable everywhere. Out-of-pocket funding can create a crippling financial burden for service users. It is important to employ improved revenue collection systems, eliminate waste, provide equitable resource distribution, ring fence mental health funding and cap the number of visits, where necessary. Political, economic, social and cultural factors play a role in funding decisions and this can be clearly seen in the context of the current economic recession in Ireland. Only 33% of the Irish population has access to free public health care and the number health insurance policy holders has dramatically declined, resulting in increased out-of-pocket payments. This approach risks negatively impacting on the social determinants of health, increasing health inequalities and negatively affecting economic productivity. It is therefore important the Irish government examines other options to provide funding for mental health services.

Empirical models for quantification of machining damage in composite materials

Dissertação para obtenção do Grau de Doutor em Engenharia Mecânica

Derivation and consistency checking of models in early software product line engineering

Dissertação para obtenção do Grau de Doutor em Engenharia Informática

Business models in the portuguese football clubs

A Work Project, presented as part of the requirements for the Award of a Masters Degree in Management from the NOVA – School of Business and Economics

How bank business models relate with risk?: The case of Portugal in times of financial crisis

A Work Project, presented as part of the requirements for the Award of a Masters Degree in Finance from the NOVA – School of Business and Economics

The new mobility paradigm: transformation of value chain and business models

We would like to thank Philipp Schwarz and Julia Gückel for their dedicated support in preparing this paper and our colleagues and students of the School of Engineering and the Business School for our fruitful discussions.

Evaluation of chemotherapeutic potential of natural extracts using 3D models of colon cancer

Dissertation to obtain master degree in Biotechnology

Fossil fuel dependence and interfuel substitution in the electricity sector of Western European countries between 1990-2011

A Work Project, presented as part of the requirements for the Award of a Masters Degree in Economics from the NOVA – School of Business and Economics