Log-modified Weibull regression models with censored data: Sensitivity and residual analysis

This paper proposes a regression model considering the modified Weibull distribution. This distribution can be used to model bathtub-shaped failure rate functions. Assuming censored data, we consider maximum likelihood and Jackknife estimators for the parameters of the model. We derive the appropriate matrices for assessing local influence on the parameter estimates under different perturbation schemes and we also present some ways to perform global influence. Besides, for different parameter settings, sample sizes and censoring percentages, various simulations are performed and the empirical distribution of the modified deviance residual is displayed and compared with the standard normal distribution. These studies suggest that the residual analysis usually performed in normal linear regression models can be straightforwardly extended for a martingale-type residual in log-modified Weibull regression models with censored data. Finally, we analyze a real data set under log-modified Weibull regression models. A diagnostic analysis and a model checking based on the modified deviance residual are performed to select appropriate models. (c) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Development of a Stability-Indicating LC Assay Method for Determination of Chloroquine

A simple and rapid development of a stability-indicating LC method for determination of chloroquine diphosphate in the presence of its hydrolysis, oxidative and photolysis degradation products is described. Stress testing showed that chloroquine diphosphate was degraded under basic conditions and by photolytic treatment but was stable under the other stress conditions investigated. Separation of the drug from its degradation products was achieved with a Nova Pack C18 column, 0.01 M PIC B7 and acetonitrile (40:60 v/v) pH 3.6, as mobile phase. Response was linear over the range 0.08-5.70 mu g mL(-1) (r = 0.996), with limits of detection and quantification (LOD and LOQ) of 0.17 and 0.35 mu g mL(-1), respectively.

Development and validation of a method for quantitative determination of econazole nitrate in cream formulation by capillary zone electrophoresis

A simple, fast, inexpensive and reliable capillary zone electrophoresis (CZE) method for the determination of econazole nitrate in cream formulations has been developed and validated. Optimum conditions comprised a pH 2.5 phosphate buffer at 20 mmol L(-1) concentration, +30 kV applied voltage in a 31.5 cm x 50 mu m I.D. capillary. Direct UV detection at 200 nm led to an adequate sensitivity without interference from sample excipients. A single extraction step of the cream sample in hydrochloric acid was performed prior to injection. Imidazole (100 mu g mL(-1)) was used as internal standard. Econazole nitrate migrates in approximately 1.2 min. The analytical curve presented a coefficient of correlation of 0.9995. Detection and quantitation limits were 1.85 and 5.62 mu g mL(-1), respectively. Excellent accuracy and precision were obtained. Recoveries varied from 98.1 to 102.5% and intra- and inter-day precisions, calculated as relative standard deviation (RSD), were better than 2.0%. The proposed CZE method presented advantageous performance characteristics and it can be considered suitable for the quality control of econazole nitrate cream formulations. (c) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

On compliance of business processes with business contracts

This paper addresses the problem of ensuring compliance of business processes, implemented within and across organisational boundaries, with the constraints stated in related business contracts. In order to deal with the complexity of this problem we propose two solutions that allow for a systematic and increasingly automated support for addressing two specific compliance issues. One solution provides a set of guidelines for progressively transforming contract conditions into business processes that are consistent with contract conditions thus avoiding violation of the rules in contract. Another solution compares rules in business contracts and rules in business processes to check for possible inconsistencies. Both approaches rely on a computer interpretable representation of contract conditions that embodies contract semantics. This semantics is described in terms of a logic based formalism allowing for the description of obligations, prohibitions, permissions and violations conditions in contracts. This semantics was based on an analysis of typical building blocks of many commercial, financial and government contracts. The study proved that our contract formalism provides a good foundation for describing key types of conditions in contracts, and has also given several insights into valuable transformation techniques and formalisms needed to establish better alignment between these two, traditionally separate areas of research and endeavour. The study also revealed a number of new areas of research, some of which we intend to address in near future.

Instantaneous outbursts in underground coal mines: An overview and association with coal type

Instantaneous outbursts in underground coal mines have occurred in at least 16 countries, involving both methane (CH4) and carbon dioxide (CO2). The precise mechanisms of an instantaneous outburst are still unresolved but must consider the effects of stress, gas content and physico-mechanical properties of the coal. Other factors such as mining methods (e.g., development heading into the coal seam) and geological features (e.g., coal seam disruptions from faulting) can combine to exacerbate the problem. Prediction techniques continue to be unreliable and unexpected outburst incidents resulting in fatalities are a major concern for underground coal operations. Gas content thresholds of 9 m(3)/t for CH4 and 6 m(3)/t for CO2 are used in the Sydney Basin, to indicate outburst-prone conditions, but are reviewed on an individual mine basis and in mixed as situations. Data on the sorption behaviour of Bowen Basin coals from Australia have provided an explanation for the conflicting results obtained by coal face desorption indices used for outburst-proneness assessment. A key factor appears to be different desorption rates displayed by banded coals, which is supported by both laboratory and mine-site investigations. Dull coal bands with high fusinite and semifusinite contents tend to display rapid desorption from solid coal, for a given pressure drop. The opposite is true for bright coal bands with high vitrinite contents and dull coal bands with high inertodetrinite contents. Consequently, when face samples of dull, fusinite-or semifusinite-rich coal of small particle size are taken for desorption testing, much gas has already escaped and low readings result. The converse applies for samples taken from coal bands with high vitrinite and/or inertodetrinite contents. In terms of outburst potential, it is the bright, vitrinite-rich and the dull, inertodetrinite-rich sections of a coal seam that appear to be more outburst-prone. This is due to the ability of the solid coal to retain gas, even after pressure reduction, creating a gas content gradient across the coal face sufficient to initiate an outburst. Once the particle size of the coal is reduced, rapid gas desorption can then take place. (C) 1998 Elsevier Science.

Methods for prediction of peptide binding to MHC molecules: A comparative study

Background: A variety of methods for prediction of peptide binding to major histocompatibility complex (MHC) have been proposed. These methods are based on binding motifs, binding matrices, hidden Markov models (HMM), or artificial neural networks (ANN). There has been little prior work on the comparative analysis of these methods. Materials and Methods: We performed a comparison of the performance of six methods applied to the prediction of two human MHC class I molecules, including binding matrices and motifs, ANNs, and HMMs. Results: The selection of the optimal prediction method depends on the amount of available data (the number of peptides of known binding affinity to the MHC molecule of interest), the biases in the data set and the intended purpose of the prediction (screening of a single protein versus mass screening). When little or no peptide data are available, binding motifs are the most useful alternative to random guessing or use of a complete overlapping set of peptides for selection of candidate binders. As the number of known peptide binders increases, binding matrices and HMM become more useful predictors. ANN and HMM are the predictive methods of choice for MHC alleles with more than 100 known binding peptides. Conclusion: The ability of bioinformatic methods to reliably predict MHC binding peptides, and thereby potential T-cell epitopes, has major implications for clinical immunology, particularly in the area of vaccine design.

A 2D numerical model for simulating the physics of fault systems

Simulations provide a powerful means to help gain the understanding of crustal fault system physics required to progress towards the goal of earthquake forecasting. Cellular Automata are efficient enough to probe system dynamics but their simplifications render interpretations questionable. In contrast, sophisticated elasto-dynamic models yield more convincing results but are too computationally demanding to explore phase space. To help bridge this gap, we develop a simple 2D elastodynamic model of parallel fault systems. The model is discretised onto a triangular lattice and faults are specified as split nodes along horizontal rows in the lattice. A simple numerical approach is presented for calculating the forces at medium and split nodes such that general nonlinear frictional constitutive relations can be modeled along faults. Single and multi-fault simulation examples are presented using a nonlinear frictional relation that is slip and slip-rate dependent in order to illustrate the model.

The Development of Science Education Research in Brazil and Contributions from the History and Philosophy of Science

Over the last 50 years a new research area, science education research, has arisen and undergone singular development worldwide. In the specific case of Brazil, research in science education first appeared systematically 40 years ago, as a consequence of an overall renovation in the field of science education. This evolution was also related to the political events taking place in the country. We will use the theoretical work of Rene Kaes on the development of groups and institutions as a basis for our discussion of the most important aspects that have helped the area of science education research develop into an institution and kept it operating as such. The growth of this area of research can be divided into three phases: The first was related to its beginning and early configurations; the second consisted of a process of consolidation of this institution; and the third consists of more recent developments, characterised by a multiplicity of research lines and corresponding challenges to be faced. In particular, we will analyse the special contributions to this study gleaned from the field known as the history and philosophy of science.

Hydraulic tracer studies in a pilot scale subsurface flow constructed wetland

Current design procedures for Subsurface Flow (SSF) Wetlands are based on the simplifying assumptions of plug flow and first order decay of pollutants. These design procedures do yield functional wetlands but result in over-design and inadequate descriptions of the pollutant removal mechanisms which occur within them. Even though these deficiencies are often noted, few authors have attempted to improve modelling of either flow or pollutant removal in such systems. Consequently the Oxley Creek Wetland, a pilot scale SSF wetland designed to enable rigorous monitoring, has recently been constructed in Brisbane, Australia. Tracer studies have been carried out in order to determine the hydraulics of this wetland prior to commissioning it with sealed sewage. The tracer studies will continue during the wetland's commissioning and operational phases. These studies will improve our understanding of the hydraulics of newly built SSF wetlands and the changes brought on by operational factors such as biological films and wetland plant root structures. Results to date indicate that the flow through the gravel beds is not uniform and cannot be adequately modelled by a single parameter, plug flow with dispersion, model. We have developed a multiparameter model, incorporating four plug flow reactors, which provides a better approximation of our experimental data. With further development this model will allow improvements to current SSF wetland design procedures and operational strategies, and will underpin investigations into the pollutant removal mechanisms at the Oxley Creek Wetland. (C) 1997 IAWQ. Published by Elsevier Science Ltd.

The risk of chikungunya fever in a dengue-endemic area

Background. Chikungunya, an alphavirus of the Togaviridae family, causes a febrile disease transmitted to humans by the bite of infected Aedes mosquitoes. This infection is reaching endemic levels in many Southeast Asian countries. Symptoms include sudden onset of fever, chills, headache, nausea, vomiting, joint pain with or without swelling, low back pain, and rash. According to the World Health Organization, there are 2 billion people living in Aedes-infested areas. In addition, traveling to these areas is popular, making the potential risk of infections transmitted by the bite of infected Aedes mosquitoes very high. Methods. We proposed a mathematical model to estimate the risk of acquiring chikungunya fever in an Aedes-infested area by taking the prevalence of dengue fever into account. The basic reproduction number for chikungunya fever R-0chik can be written as a function of the basic reproduction number of dengue R-0dengue by calculating the ratio R-0chik/R-0dengue. From R-0chik, we estimated the force of infection and the risk of acquiring the disease both for local residents of a dengue-endemic area and for travelers to this area. Results. We calculated that R-0chik is 64.4% that of R-0dengue. The model was applied to a hypothetical situation, namely, estimating the individual risk of acquiring chikungunya fever in a dengue-endemic area, both for local inhabitants (22% in steady state) and for visiting travelers (from 0.31% to 1.23% depending on the time spent in the area). Conclusions. The method proposed based on the output of a dynamical model is innovative and provided an estimation of the risk of infection, both for local inhabitants and for visiting travelers.

Genetic Analysis of Age-at-Onset for Cardiovascular Risk Factors in a Brazilian Family Study

Background/Aims: Statistical analysis of age-at-onset involving family data is particularly complicated because there is a correlation pattern that needs to be modeled and also because there are measurements that are censored. In this paper, our main purpose was to evaluate the effect of genetic and shared family environmental factors on age-at-onset of three cardiovascular risk factors: hypertension, diabetes and high cholesterol. Methods: The mixed-effects Cox model proposed by Pankratz et al. [2005] was used to analyze the data from 81 families, involving 1,675 individuals from the village of Baependi, in the state of Minas Gerais, Brazil. Results: The analyses performed showed that the polygenic effect plays a greater role than the shared family environmental effect in explaining the variability of the age-at-onset of hypertension, diabetes and high cholesterol. The model which simultaneously evaluated both effects indicated that there are individuals which may have risk of hypertension due to polygenic effects 130% higher than the overall average risk for the entire sample. For diabetes and high cholesterol the risks of some individuals were 115 and 45%, respectively, higher than the overall average risk for the entire population. Conclusions: Results showed evidence of significant polygenic effects indicating that age-at-onset is a useful trait for gene mapping of the common complex diseases analyzed. In addition, we found that the polygenic random component might absorb the effects of some covariates usually considered in the risk evaluation, such as gender, age and BMI. Copyright (C) 2008 S. Karger AG, Basel

Pregnancy outcome in ethanol-treated mice with folic acid supplementation in saccharose

Introduction Maternal folic acid deficiency is the most important metabolic factor in the etiology of neural tube defects (NTD) and is reduced by ethanol, which is extensively consumed by young women. Objective The objective of the study was to determine whether folic acid supplementation in dietary saccharose is efficient in the prevention NTD induced by ethanol in fetuses of Swiss mice. Materials and methods Pregnant mice were divided into four groups of six animals each: control (C), ethanol (E), deficient-supplemented (DS), and deficient-supplemented+ethanol (DSE). Groups C and E received commercial mouse chow (containing 3 mg/kg folic acid) throughout the experiment, while groups DS and DSE received a folic acid-free diet with the addition of saccharose supplemented with folic acid (2 mg/kg folic acid) in water. Group E and DSE animals received ethanol (4 g/kg) administered intraperitoneally from the seventh to the ninth gestational day (gd) and were euthanized on the 18th gd, while groups C and DS received saline. Results Congenital anomalies were observed in groups E and DSE. The fetal weight and length of the animals in group E were lower than in groups C and DS and, in group DSE, were lower than in groups C and DS. The placental diameter of group E was smaller than that of group C, and the placental weight of group C animals was lower than that of groups E, DSE, and DS. Conclusion The study demonstrated that dietary supplementation with folate in saccharose is an accessible means of consumption that could be further diffused but in an increased dose than recommended to reduce the teratogenic effects of ethanol.

Long-term risk stratification for survivors of acute coronary syndromes - Results from the long-term intervention with pravastatin in ischemic disease (LIPID) study

OBJECTIVES We developed a prognostic strategy for quantifying the long-term risk of coronary heart disease (CHD) events in survivors of acute coronary syndromes (ACS). BACKGROUND Strategies for quantifying long-term risk of CHD events have generally been confined to primary prevention settings. The Long-term Intervention with Pravastatin in Ischemic Disease (LIPID) study, which demonstrated that pravastatin reduces CHD events in ACS survivors with a broad range of cholesterol levels, enabled assessment of long-term prognosis in a secondary prevention setting. METHODS Based on outcomes in 8,557 patients in the LIPID study, a multivariate risk factor model was developed for prediction of CHD death or nonfatal myocardial infarction. Prognostic indexes were developed based on the model, and low-, medium-, high- and very high-risk groups were defined by categorizing the prognostic indexes. RESULTS In addition to pravastatin treatment, the independently significant risk factors included: total and high density lipoprotein cholesterol, age, gender, smoking status, qualifying ACS, prior coronary revascularization, diabetes mellitus, hypertension and prior stroke. Pravastatin reduced coronary event rates in each risk level, and the relative risk reduction did not vary significantly between risk levels. The predicted five-year coronary event rates ranged from 5% to 19% for those assigned pravastatin and from 6.4% to 23.6% fur those assigned placebo. CONCLUSIONS Long-term prognosis of ACS survivors varied substantially according to conventional risk factor profile. Pravastatin reduced coronary risk within all risk levels; however, absolute risk remained high in treated patients with unfavorable profiles. Our risk stratification strategy enables identification of ACS survivors who remain at very high risk despite statin therapy. CT Am Coil Cardiol 2001;38:56-63) (C) 2001 by the American College of Cardiology.