A landscape-scale test of the predictive ability of a spatially explicit model for population viability analysis

1. Although population viability analysis (PVA) is widely employed, forecasts from PVA models are rarely tested. This study in a fragmented forest in southern Australia contrasted field data on patch occupancy and abundance for the arboreal marsupial greater glider Petauroides volans with predictions from a generic spatially explicit PVA model. This work represents one of the first landscape-scale tests of its type. 2. Initially we contrasted field data from a set of eucalypt forest patches totalling 437 ha with a naive null model in which forecasts of patch occupancy were made, assuming no fragmentation effects and based simply on remnant area and measured densities derived from nearby unfragmented forest. The naive null model predicted an average total of approximately 170 greater gliders, considerably greater than the true count (n = 81). 3. Congruence was examined between field data and predictions from PVA under several metapopulation modelling scenarios. The metapopulation models performed better than the naive null model. Logistic regression showed highly significant positive relationships between predicted and actual patch occupancy for the four scenarios (P = 0.001-0.006). When the model-derived probability of patch occupancy was high (0.50-0.75, 0.75-1.00), there was greater congruence between actual patch occupancy and the predicted probability of occupancy. 4. For many patches, probability distribution functions indicated that model predictions for animal abundance in a given patch were not outside those expected by chance. However, for some patches the model either substantially over-predicted or under-predicted actual abundance. Some important processes, such as inter-patch dispersal, that influence the distribution and abundance of the greater glider may not have been adequately modelled. 5. Additional landscape-scale tests of PVA models, on a wider range of species, are required to assess further predictions made using these tools. This will help determine those taxa for which predictions are and are not accurate and give insights for improving models for applied conservation management.

Historical overfishing and the recent collapse of coastal ecosystems

Ecological extinction caused by overfishing precedes all other pervasive human disturbance to coastal ecosystems, including pollution, degradation of water quality, and anthropogenic climate change. Historical abundances of large consumer species were fantastically large in comparison with recent observations. Paleoecological, archaeological, and historical data show that time lags of decades to centuries occurred between the onset of overfishing and consequent changes in ecological communities, because unfished species of similar trophic level assumed the ecological roles of overfished species until they too were overfished or died of epidemic diseases related to overcrowding. Retrospective data not only help to clarify underlying causes and rates of ecological change, but they also demonstrate achievable goals for restoration and management of coastal ecosystems that could not even be contemplated based on the limited perspective of recent observations alone.

Stochastic structure and individual-tree growth models

The majority of past and current individual-tree growth modelling methodologies have failed to characterise and incorporate structured stochastic components. Rather, they have relied on deterministic predictions or have added an unstructured random component to predictions. In particular, spatial stochastic structure has been neglected, despite being present in most applications of individual-tree growth models. Spatial stochastic structure (also called spatial dependence or spatial autocorrelation) eventuates when spatial influences such as competition and micro-site effects are not fully captured in models. Temporal stochastic structure (also called temporal dependence or temporal autocorrelation) eventuates when a sequence of measurements is taken on an individual-tree over time, and variables explaining temporal variation in these measurements are not included in the model. Nested stochastic structure eventuates when measurements are combined across sampling units and differences among the sampling units are not fully captured in the model. This review examines spatial, temporal, and nested stochastic structure and instances where each has been characterised in the forest biometry and statistical literature. Methodologies for incorporating stochastic structure in growth model estimation and prediction are described. Benefits from incorporation of stochastic structure include valid statistical inference, improved estimation efficiency, and more realistic and theoretically sound predictions. It is proposed in this review that individual-tree modelling methodologies need to characterise and include structured stochasticity. Possibilities for future research are discussed. (C) 2001 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

Plant growth limitation and nutrient loss following piled burning in slash and burn agriculture

In the forest zone of Cameroon, small-scale family farmers practicing traditional slash and burn practices achieve a clear field by piled burning of the branches and trunks of cleared vegetation. Plant growth inhibition on ash patches, and the risk of nutrient loss from these areas, was evaluated on field plots on which 0.5 t m(-2) or 1.0 t m(-2) of wood was piled and burnt, and in laboratory studies. The ash produced by burning was strongly alkaline, and laboratory bio-assessment studies showed that the saline, high pH conditions produced in ash patches prevented germination and plant growth for up to two wet seasons, as is observed in the field. Field and laboratory studies demonstrated rapid release (1 wet season) of K and S from the ash and the loss of a substantial portion of these nutrients from the soil profile by leaching. In contrast, leaching carries Mg from the ash gradually (3 to 4 wet seasons), while Ca, Cu, Zn and P are leached slowly. The nutrients contained in ash patches are considered at risk of loss both through leaching (K and S) and by erosion of ash (Ca, Mg, Cu, Zn and P). Farmers should be encouraged to spread ash patches prior to cultivation in order to exploit the nutrient content of ash and to lessen the risk of nutrient loss.

Mediatizing educational policy: The journalistic field, science policy, and cross-field effects

This paper is concerned to demonstrate the usefulness of the theory of Bourdieu, including the concepts of field, logics of practice and habitus, to understanding relationships between media and policy, what Fairclough has called the 'mediatization' of policy. Specifically, the paper draws upon Bourdieu's accessible account of the journalistic field as outlined in On television and journalism. The usefulness of this work is illustrated through a case study of a recent Australian science policy, The chance to change. As this policy went through various iterations and media representations, its naming and structure became more aphoristic. This is the mediatization of contemporary policy, which often results in policy as sound bite. The case study also shows the cross-field effects of this policy in education, illustrating how today educational policy can be spawned from developments in other public policy fields.

Ecosystem process models at multiple scales for mapping tropical forest productivity

Quantifying mass and energy exchanges within tropical forests is essential for understanding their role in the global carbon budget and how they will respond to perturbations in climate. This study reviews ecosystem process models designed to predict the growth and productivity of temperate and tropical forest ecosystems. Temperate forest models were included because of the minimal number of tropical forest models. The review provides a multiscale assessment enabling potential users to select a model suited to the scale and type of information they require in tropical forests. Process models are reviewed in relation to their input and output parameters, minimum spatial and temporal units of operation, maximum spatial extent and time period of application for each organization level of modelling. Organizational levels included leaf-tree, plot-stand, regional and ecosystem levels, with model complexity decreasing as the time-step and spatial extent of model operation increases. All ecosystem models are simplified versions of reality and are typically aspatial. Remotely sensed data sets and derived products may be used to initialize, drive and validate ecosystem process models. At the simplest level, remotely sensed data are used to delimit location, extent and changes over time of vegetation communities. At a more advanced level, remotely sensed data products have been used to estimate key structural and biophysical properties associated with ecosystem processes in tropical and temperate forests. Combining ecological models and image data enables the development of carbon accounting systems that will contribute to understanding greenhouse gas budgets at biome and global scales.

The Development of Science Education Research in Brazil and Contributions from the History and Philosophy of Science

Over the last 50 years a new research area, science education research, has arisen and undergone singular development worldwide. In the specific case of Brazil, research in science education first appeared systematically 40 years ago, as a consequence of an overall renovation in the field of science education. This evolution was also related to the political events taking place in the country. We will use the theoretical work of Rene Kaes on the development of groups and institutions as a basis for our discussion of the most important aspects that have helped the area of science education research develop into an institution and kept it operating as such. The growth of this area of research can be divided into three phases: The first was related to its beginning and early configurations; the second consisted of a process of consolidation of this institution; and the third consists of more recent developments, characterised by a multiplicity of research lines and corresponding challenges to be faced. In particular, we will analyse the special contributions to this study gleaned from the field known as the history and philosophy of science.

Five new species of Coniceromyia Borgmeier (Diptera: Phoridae) from the Atlantic Forest, Brazil

Five new species of Coniceromyia from the Atlantic Forest in Brazil are herein described-Coniceromyia apechoneura, sp. nov., C. brandaoi, sp. nov., C. diaphaniptera, sp. nov., C. franciscana, sp. nov., and C. sanctaetheresae, sp. nov. Both C. diaphaniptera and C. franciscana have patterned wings. The male foretibia provides important diagnostic features for the species, as well as additional characters to propose clades within the genus. The male hypopygial morphology is described.

Four new species of Paraclius Loew (Diptera: Dolichopodidae) from the Brazilian Atlantic Forest, and notes on the systematic position of Cheiromyia Dyte

Four new species of Paraclius Loew from the Brazilian Atlantic Forest are described and illustrated: P. amphiatheratus, sp. nov., P. parenti, sp. nov., P. sagittatus, sp. nov., and P. dicrophallus, sp. nov. The condition of their enlarged sperm pump, also seen in the Neotropical genus Cheiromyia Dyte, is briefly discussed. Comments on the phylogenetic position of Cheiromyia are presented in light of new data from female terminalia of that genus.

The identity of Paratrizygia conformis Tonnoir (Diptera, Mycetophilidae), with comments on its systematic position

Paratrizygia conformis, the type-species of the genus Paratrizygia, from Tasmania, is redescribed from the holotype. The wing venation and male terminalia are illustrated in detail. The question of the monophyly of the genus-which has four additional species in Chile and southern Argentina, and four species in the Atlantic Forest, in Brazil-is addressed. Comments are made on the relationships of the genus in the Azana-group of Sciophilinae. The hypothesis of monophyly of Paratrizygia is retained, as indicated by the presence of modified, elongated spines on a distal fold of tergite 9.

Morphological and morphometric appraisal of the spermatophore of the southern hermit crab Isocheles sawayai Forest and Saint Laurent, 1968 (Anomura: Diogenidae), with comments on gonopores in both sexes

The spermatophore morphology of the hermit crab Isocheles sawayai from Southwestern Atlantic (Brazil) is described. The spermatophores show similarities with those described for other members of the family Diogenidae, especially with the recently described Loxopagurus loxochelis. The spermatophore is composed of three major regions: a sperm filled head or ampulla, a columnar stalk and a foot or pedestal. The spermatophores show specific morphology in having a circular ampulla, and a constriction or neck between the ampulla (100 mu m) and the thin (27 mu m), long stalk (500 mu m). The stalk penetrates less than half way into the spermatophore head. Most spermatophores show one or the small posterior projections on the underside of the ampulla as being bigger than the other, making it asymmetrical. The size of the spermatophore is related to hermit crab size with direct relationships found between spermatophore ampulla width, total length, and peduncle length with shield length of the hermit crab. The morphological characteristics of the spermatophore of L sawayai. are species-specific distinguishing it from other members of the family, and are useful to infer further phylogenetic relationships. (C) 2008 Elsevier GmbH. All rights reserved.

Choice of macroinvertebrate metrics to evaluate stream conditions in Atlantic Forest, Brazil

The development of biomonitoring programs based on the macroinvertebrate community requires the understanding of species distribution patterns, as well as of the responses of the community to anthropogenic stressors. In this study, 49 metrics were tested as potential means of assessing the condition of 29 first- and second-order streams located in areas of differing types of land use in So Paulo State, Brazil. Of the sampled streams, 15 were in well-preserved regions in the Atlantic Forest, 5 were among sugarcane cultivations, 5 were in areas of pasture, and 4 were among eucalyptus plantations. The metrics were assessed against the following criteria: (1) predictable response to the impact of human activity; (2) highest taxonomic resolution, and (3) operational and theoretical simplicity. We found that 18 metrics were correlated with the environmental and spatial predictors used, and seven of these satisfied the selection criteria and are thus candidates for inclusion in a multimetric system to assess low-order streams in So Paulo State. These metrics are family richness; Ephemeroptera, Plecoptera and Trichoptera (EPT) richness; proportion of Megaloptera and Hirudinea; proportion of EPT; Shannon diversity index for genus; and adapted Biological Monitoring Work Party biotic index.

Social Wasp Diversity (Vespidae, Polistinae) in a Forest Fragment in the Northeast of Sao Paulo State Sampled with Different Methodologies

Social wasp diversity in Semideciduous Seasonal Forests of the northeast of Sao Paulo State is poorly known, causing a lack of information on the diversity of these wasps from these areas which have been degraded. The objective of this work was to evaluate the social wasp (Vespidae, Polistinae) diversity in a Semideciduous Seasonal Forest of the northeast of Sao Paulo State and to compare three different kinds of sampling methodology. Surveys were conducted from August 2005 to September 2006 in the interior, edge and matrix of a Semideciduous Seasonal Forest fragment in Patrocinio Paulista city, Sao Paulo State. Three methodologies were used: 1. Active collection in flowers, 2. Searching for nests, 3. Active collection with attractive liquid. Thirty species of social wasps were collected in the fragment, but the diversity was highest in the edge. Active collection with attractive liquid was the most efficient methodology. Despite the high levels of deforestation, forest fragments in Sao Paulo State have a high diversity of social wasps, reinforcing the importance of their preservation.

Social Science; black movement; racial relations; identityThe Brazilian black movement in the social sciences (1950-2000)

When and how did the Brazilian Black movement appear in the social sciences? What are the theoretical approaches and explanations for the 20th century emergence and development? This article will address these principal issues by analyzing studies that have taken on the topic of collective black mobilization from various disciplinary vantage points, particularly, Sociology, History and Anthropology.