Spatial variability and potential impacts of climate change on flood and debris flow hazard zone mapping and implications for risk management

The main goals of this study were to identifythe alpine torrent catchments that are sensitive to climatic changes and to assess the robustness of the methods for the elaboration of flood and debris flow hazard zone maps to specific effects of climate changes. In this study, a procedure for the identification and localization of torrent catchments in which the climate scenarios will modify the hazard situation was developed. In two case studies, the impacts of a potential increase of precipitation intensities to the delimited hazard zones were studied. The identification and localization of the torrent and river catchments, where unfavourable changes in the hazard situation occur, could eliminate speculative and unnecessary measures against the impacts of climate changes like a general enlargement of hazard zones or a general over dimensioning of protection structures for the whole territory. The results showed a high spatial variability of the sensitivity of catchments to climate changes. In sensitive catchments, the sediment management in alpine torrents will meet future challenges due to a higher rate for sediment removal from retention basins. The case studies showed a remarkable increase of the areas affected by floods and debris flow when considering possible future precipitation intensities in hazard mapping. But, the calculated increase in extent of future hazard zones lay within the uncertainty of the methods used today for the delimitation of the hazard zones. Thus, the consideration of the uncertainties laying in the methods for the elaboration of hazard zone maps in the torrent and river catchments sensitive to climate changes would provide a useful instrument for the consideration of potential future climate conditions. The study demonstrated that weak points in protection structures in future will become more important in risk management activities.

Flood triggering in Switzerland: the role of daily to monthly preceding precipitation

Determining the role of different precipitation periods for peak discharge generation is crucial for both projecting future changes in flood probability and for short- and medium-range flood forecasting. In this study, catchment-averaged daily precipitation time series are analyzed prior to annual peak discharge events (floods) in Switzerland. The high number of floods considered – more than 4000 events from 101 catchments have been analyzed – allows to derive significant information about the role of antecedent precipitation for peak discharge generation. Based on the analysis of precipitation times series, a new separation of flood-related precipitation periods is proposed: (i) the period 0 to 1 day before flood days, when the maximum flood-triggering precipitation rates are generally observed, (ii) the period 2 to 3 days before flood days, when longer-lasting synoptic situations generate "significantly higher than normal" precipitation amounts, and (iii) the period from 4 days to 1 month before flood days when previous wet episodes may have already preconditioned the catchment. The novelty of this study lies in the separation of antecedent precipitation into the precursor antecedent precipitation (4 days before floods or earlier, called PRE-AP) and the short range precipitation (0 to 3 days before floods, a period when precipitation is often driven by one persistent weather situation like e.g., a stationary low-pressure system). A precise separation of "antecedent" and "peak-triggering" precipitation is not attempted. Instead, the strict definition of antecedent precipitation periods permits a direct comparison of all catchments. The precipitation accumulating 0 to 3 days before an event is the most relevant for floods in Switzerland. PRE-AP precipitation has only a weak and region-specific influence on flood probability. Floods were significantly more frequent after wet PRE-AP periods only in the Jura Mountains, in the western and eastern Swiss plateau, and at the outlet of large lakes. As a general rule, wet PRE-AP periods enhance the flood probability in catchments with gentle topography, high infiltration rates, and large storage capacity (karstic cavities, deep soils, large reservoirs). In contrast, floods were significantly less frequent after wet PRE-AP periods in glacial catchments because of reduced melt. For the majority of catchments however, no significant correlation between precipitation amounts and flood occurrences is found when the last 3 days before floods are omitted in the precipitation amounts. Moreover, the PRE-AP was not higher for extreme floods than for annual floods with a high frequency and was very close to climatology for all floods. The fact that floods are not significantly more frequent nor more intense after wet PRE-AP is a clear indicator of a short discharge memory of Pre-Alpine, Alpine and South Alpine Swiss catchments. Our study poses the question whether the impact of long-term precursory precipitation for floods in such catchments is not overestimated in the general perception. The results suggest that the consideration of a 3–4 days precipitation period should be sufficient to represent (understand, reconstruct, model, project) Swiss Alpine floods.

SCAD: Sensor Context-aware Adaptive Duty-cycled Beaconless Opportunistic Routing for WSNs

Low quality of wireless links leads to perpetual transmission failures in lossy wireless environments. To mitigate this problem, opportunistic routing (OR) has been proposed to improve the throughput of wireless multihop ad-hoc networks by taking advantage of the broadcast nature of wireless channels. However, OR can not be directly applied to wireless sensor networks (WSNs) due to some intrinsic design features of WSNs. In this paper, we present a new OR solution for WSNs with suitable adaptations to their characteristics. Our protocol, called SCAD-Sensor Context-aware Adaptive Duty-cycled beaconless opportunistic routing protocol is a cross-layer routing approach and it selects packet forwarders based on multiple sensor context information. To reach a balance between performance and energy-efficiency, SCAD adapts the duty-cycles of sensors according to real-time traffic loads and energy drain rates. We compare SCAD against other protocols through extensive simulations. Evaluation results show that SCAD outperforms other protocols in highly dynamic scenarios.

Adaptive Beaconless Opportunistic Routing for Multimedia Distribution

User experience on watching live videos must be satisfactory even under the inuence of different network conditions and topology changes, such as happening in Flying Ad-Hoc Networks (FANETs). Routing services for video dissemination over FANETs must be able to adapt routing decisions at runtime to meet Quality of Experience (QoE) requirements. In this paper, we introduce an adaptive beaconless opportunistic routing protocol for video dissemination over FANETs with QoE support, by taking into account multiple types of context information, such as link quality, residual energy, buffer state, as well as geographic information and node mobility in a 3D space. The proposed protocol takes into account Bayesian networks to define weight vectors and Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) to adjust the degree of importance for the context information based on instantaneous values. It also includes a position prediction to monitor the distance between two nodes in order to detect possible route failure.

WEAVE: Efficient Geographical Routing in Large-Scale Networks

We propose WEAVE, a geographical 2D/3D routing protocol that maintains information on a small number of waypoints and checkpoints for forwarding packets to any destination. Nodes obtain the routing information from partial traces gathered in incoming packets and use a system of checkpoints along with the segments of routes to weave end-to-end paths close to the shortest ones. WEAVE does not generate any control traffic, it is suitable for routing in both 2D and 3D networks, and does not require any strong assumption on the underlying network graph such as the Unit Disk or a Planar Graph. WEAVE compares favorably with existing protocols in both testbed experiments and simulations.

Dynamic Unicast: Information-Centric Multi-hop Routing for Mobile Ad-hoc Networks

Abstract Information-centric networking (ICN) offers new perspectives on mobile ad-hoc communication because routing is based on names but not on endpoint identifiers. Since every content object has a unique name and is signed, authentic content can be stored and cached by any node. If connectivity to a content source breaks, it is not necessarily required to build a new path to the same source but content can also be retrieved from a closer node that provides the same content copy. For example, in case of collisions, retransmissions do not need to be performed over the entire path but due to caching only over the link where the collision occurred. Furthermore, multiple requests can be aggregated to improve scalability of wireless multi-hop communication. In this work, we base our investigations on Content-Centric Networking (CCN), which is a popular {ICN} architecture. While related works in wireless {CCN} communication are based on broadcast communication exclusively, we show that this is not needed for efficient mobile ad-hoc communication. With Dynamic Unicast requesters can build unicast paths to content sources after they have been identified via broadcast. We have implemented Dynamic Unicast in CCNx, which provides a reference implementation of the {CCN} concepts, and performed extensive evaluations in diverse mobile scenarios using NS3-DCE, the direct code execution framework for the {NS3} network simulator. Our evaluations show that Dynamic Unicast can result in more efficient communication than broadcast communication, but still supports all {CCN} advantages such as caching, scalability and implicit content discovery.

{[N.N.], Szenenfoto, Gruppenbildnis, in: Igor Stravinsky: The Flood, Hamburg: Staatsoper, 1963, Inszenierung: Günther Rennert

Signatur des Originals: S 36/F11346

Health impacts of extreme weather: Flood fatalities in Texas

Floods are the leading cause of fatalities related to natural disasters in Texas. Texas leads the nation in flash flood fatalities. From 1959 through 2009 there were three times more fatalities in Texas (840) than the following state Pennsylvania (265). Texas also leads the nation in flood-related injuries (7753). Flood fatalities in Texas represent a serious public health problem. This study addresses several objectives of Healthy People 2010 including reducing deaths from motor vehicle accidents (Objective 15-15), reducing nonfatal motor vehicle injuries (Objective 15-17), and reducing drownings (Objective 15-29). The study examined flood fatalities that occurred in Texas between 1959 and 2008. Flood fatality statistics were extracted from three sources: flood fatality databases from the National Climatic Data Center, the Spatial Hazard Event and Loss Database for the United States, and the Texas Department of State Health Services. The data collected for flood fatalities include the date, time, gender, age, location, and type of flood. Inconsistencies among the three databases were identified and discussed. Analysis reveals that most fatalities result from driving into flood water (77%). Spatial analysis indicates that more fatalities occurred in counties containing major urban centers – some of the Flash Flood Alley counties (Bexar, Dallas, Travis, and Tarrant), Harris County (Houston), and Val Verde County (Del Rio). An intervention strategy targeting the behavior of driving into flood water is proposed. The intervention is based on the Health Belief model. The main recommendation of the study is that flood fatalities in Texas can be reduced through a combination of improved hydrometeorological forecasting, educational programs aimed at enhancing the public awareness of flood risk and the seriousness of flood warnings, and timely and appropriate action by local emergency and safety authorities.^