Looking for orders of magnitude : five essays in trade and the environment and economic geography

General Summary Although the chapters of this thesis address a variety of issues, the principal aim is common: test economic ideas in an international economic context. The intention has been to supply empirical findings using the largest suitable data sets and making use of the most appropriate empirical techniques. This thesis can roughly be divided into two parts: the first one, corresponding to the first two chapters, investigates the link between trade and the environment, the second one, the last three chapters, is related to economic geography issues. Environmental problems are omnipresent in the daily press nowadays and one of the arguments put forward is that globalisation causes severe environmental problems through the reallocation of investments and production to countries with less stringent environmental regulations. A measure of the amplitude of this undesirable effect is provided in the first part. The third and the fourth chapters explore the productivity effects of agglomeration. The computed spillover effects between different sectors indicate how cluster-formation might be productivity enhancing. The last chapter is not about how to better understand the world but how to measure it and it was just a great pleasure to work on it. "The Economist" writes every week about the impressive population and economic growth observed in China and India, and everybody agrees that the world's center of gravity has shifted. But by how much and how fast did it shift? An answer is given in the last part, which proposes a global measure for the location of world production and allows to visualize our results in Google Earth. A short summary of each of the five chapters is provided below. The first chapter, entitled "Unraveling the World-Wide Pollution-Haven Effect" investigates the relative strength of the pollution haven effect (PH, comparative advantage in dirty products due to differences in environmental regulation) and the factor endowment effect (FE, comparative advantage in dirty, capital intensive products due to differences in endowments). We compute the pollution content of imports using the IPPS coefficients (for three pollutants, namely biological oxygen demand, sulphur dioxide and toxic pollution intensity for all manufacturing sectors) provided by the World Bank and use a gravity-type framework to isolate the two above mentioned effects. Our study covers 48 countries that can be classified into 29 Southern and 19 Northern countries and uses the lead content of gasoline as proxy for environmental stringency. For North-South trade we find significant PH and FE effects going in the expected, opposite directions and being of similar magnitude. However, when looking at world trade, the effects become very small because of the high North-North trade share, where we have no a priori expectations about the signs of these effects. Therefore popular fears about the trade effects of differences in environmental regulations might by exaggerated. The second chapter is entitled "Is trade bad for the Environment? Decomposing worldwide SO2 emissions, 1990-2000". First we construct a novel and large database containing reasonable estimates of SO2 emission intensities per unit labor that vary across countries, periods and manufacturing sectors. Then we use these original data (covering 31 developed and 31 developing countries) to decompose the worldwide SO2 emissions into the three well known dynamic effects (scale, technique and composition effect). We find that the positive scale (+9,5%) and the negative technique (-12.5%) effect are the main driving forces of emission changes. Composition effects between countries and sectors are smaller, both negative and of similar magnitude (-3.5% each). Given that trade matters via the composition effects this means that trade reduces total emissions. We next construct, in a first experiment, a hypothetical world where no trade happens, i.e. each country produces its imports at home and does no longer produce its exports. The difference between the actual and this no-trade world allows us (under the omission of price effects) to compute a static first-order trade effect. The latter now increases total world emissions because it allows, on average, dirty countries to specialize in dirty products. However, this effect is smaller (3.5%) in 2000 than in 1990 (10%), in line with the negative dynamic composition effect identified in the previous exercise. We then propose a second experiment, comparing effective emissions with the maximum or minimum possible level of SO2 emissions. These hypothetical levels of emissions are obtained by reallocating labour accordingly across sectors within each country (under the country-employment and the world industry-production constraints). Using linear programming techniques, we show that emissions are reduced by 90% with respect to the worst case, but that they could still be reduced further by another 80% if emissions were to be minimized. The findings from this chapter go together with those from chapter one in the sense that trade-induced composition effect do not seem to be the main source of pollution, at least in the recent past. Going now to the economic geography part of this thesis, the third chapter, entitled "A Dynamic Model with Sectoral Agglomeration Effects" consists of a short note that derives the theoretical model estimated in the fourth chapter. The derivation is directly based on the multi-regional framework by Ciccone (2002) but extends it in order to include sectoral disaggregation and a temporal dimension. This allows us formally to write present productivity as a function of past productivity and other contemporaneous and past control variables. The fourth chapter entitled "Sectoral Agglomeration Effects in a Panel of European Regions" takes the final equation derived in chapter three to the data. We investigate the empirical link between density and labour productivity based on regional data (245 NUTS-2 regions over the period 1980-2003). Using dynamic panel techniques allows us to control for the possible endogeneity of density and for region specific effects. We find a positive long run elasticity of density with respect to labour productivity of about 13%. When using data at the sectoral level it seems that positive cross-sector and negative own-sector externalities are present in manufacturing while financial services display strong positive own-sector effects. The fifth and last chapter entitled "Is the World's Economic Center of Gravity Already in Asia?" computes the world economic, demographic and geographic center of gravity for 1975-2004 and compares them. Based on data for the largest cities in the world and using the physical concept of center of mass, we find that the world's economic center of gravity is still located in Europe, even though there is a clear shift towards Asia. To sum up, this thesis makes three main contributions. First, it provides new estimates of orders of magnitudes for the role of trade in the globalisation and environment debate. Second, it computes reliable and disaggregated elasticities for the effect of density on labour productivity in European regions. Third, it allows us, in a geometrically rigorous way, to track the path of the world's economic center of gravity.

Invariant decomposition of the retarded electromagnetic field.

The integral representation of the electromagnetic two-form, defined on Minkowski space-time, is studied from a new point of view. The aim of the paper is to obtain an invariant criteria in order to define the radiative field. This criteria generalizes the well-known structureless charge case. We begin with the curvature two-form, because its field equations incorporate the motion of the sources. The gauge theory methods (connection one-forms) are not suited because their field equations do not incorporate the motion of the sources. We obtain an integral solution of the Maxwell equations in the case of a flow of charges in irrotational motion. This solution induces us to propose a new method of solving the problem of the nature of the retarded radiative field. This method is based on a projection tensor operator which, being local, is suited to being implemented on general relativity. We propose the field equations for the pair {electromagnetic field, projection tensor J. These field equations are an algebraic differential first-order system of oneforms, which verifies automatically the integrability conditions.

Pharmacokinetic variability of extended interval tobramycin in burn patients.

BACKGROUND: Aminoglycosides are mandatory in the treatment of severe infections in burns. However, their pharmacokinetics are difficult to predict in critically ill patients. Our objective was to describe the pharmacokinetic parameters of high doses of tobramycin administered at extended intervals in severely burned patients. METHODS: We prospectively enrolled 23 burned patients receiving tobramycin in combination therapy for Pseudomonas species infections in a burn ICU over 2 years in a therapeutic drug monitoring program. Trough and post peak tobramycin levels were measured to adjust drug dosage. Pharmacokinetic parameters were derived from two points first order kinetics. RESULTS: Tobramycin peak concentration was 7.4 (3.1-19.6)microg/ml and Cmax/MIC ratio 14.8 (2.8-39.2). Half-life was 6.9 (range 1.8-24.6)h with a distribution volume of 0.4 (0.2-1.0)l/kg. Clearance was 35 (14-121)ml/min and was weakly but significantly correlated with creatinine clearance. CONCLUSION: Tobramycin had a normal clearance, but an increased volume of distribution and a prolonged half-life in burned patients. However, the pharmacokinetic parameters of tobramycin are highly variable in burned patients. These data support extended interval administration and strongly suggest that aminoglycosides should only be used within a structured pharmacokinetic monitoring program.

Giant heat dissipation at the low temperature reversible-irreversible transition in Gd5Ge4

The heat exchanged at the low-temperature first-order magnetostructural transition is directly measured in Gd5Ge4 . Results show that the origin and the temperature dependence of the heat exchanged varies with the reversible/irreversible character of the first-order transition. In the reversible regime, the heat exchanged by the sample is mostly due to the latent heat at the transition and decreases with decreasing temperature, while in the irreversible regime, the heat is irreversibly dissipated and increases strongly with decreasing temperature, reaching a value of 237 J/kg at 4 K.

Reply to "Comment on 'Nature and entropy content of the ordering transitions in RCo2'"

In the previous Comment, Forker and co-workers claim that perturbed angular correlation (PAC) data leave no alternative to the conclusion that the spontaneous magnetization of PrCo2 and NdCo2 undergoes a discontinuous, first-order phase transition at TC. We show here that their claim is in clear contradiction with a wealth of experimental evidence, including our own. Finally, we propose a possible origin for the disagreement between their interpretation of the PAC results and the literature on this subject.

Interaccion among systems of finite size in predictive relativistic mechanics -II. Electromagnetic and gravitational interactions

We explicitly construct a closed system of differential equations describing the electromagnetic and gravitational interactions among bodies to first order in the coupling constants, retaining terms up to order c-2. The Breit and Barker and O'Connell Hamiltonians are recovered by means of a coordinate transformation. The method used throws light on the meaning of these coordinates.

Budgeting rockfall and modeling sedimentary delivery in torrent systems

This thesis is a compilation of projects to study sediment processes recharging debris flow channels. These works, conducted during my stay at the University of Lausanne, focus in the geological and morphological implications of torrent catchments to characterize debris supply, a fundamental element to predict debris flows. Other aspects of sediment dynamics are considered, e.g. the coupling headwaters - torrent, as well as the development of a modeling software that simulates sediment transfer in torrent systems. The sediment activity at Manival, an active torrent system of the northern French Alps, was investigated using terrestrial laser scanning and supplemented with geostructural investigations and a survey of sediment transferred in the main torrent. A full year of sediment flux could be observed, which coincided with two debris flows and several bedload transport events. This study revealed that both debris flows generated in the torrent and were preceded in time by recharge of material from the headwaters. Debris production occurred mostly during winter - early spring time and was caused by large slope failures. Sediment transfers were more puzzling, occurring almost exclusively in early spring subordinated to runoffconditions and in autumn during long rainfall. Intense rainstorms in summer did not affect debris storage that seems to rely on the stability of debris deposits. The morpho-geological implication in debris supply was evaluated using DEM and field surveys. A slope angle-based classification of topography could characterize the mode of debris production and transfer. A slope stability analysis derived from the structures in rock mass could assess susceptibility to failure. The modeled rockfall source areas included more than 97% of the recorded events and the sediment budgets appeared to be correlated to the density of potential slope failure. This work showed that the analysis of process-related terrain morphology and of susceptibility to slope failure document the sediment dynamics to quantitatively assess erosion zones leading to debris flow activity. The development of erosional landforms was evaluated by analyzing their geometry with the orientations of potential rock slope failure and with the direction of the maximum joint frequency. Structure in rock mass, but in particular wedge failure and the dominant discontinuities, appear as a first-order control of erosional mechanisms affecting bedrock- dominated catchment. They represent some weaknesses that are exploited primarily by mass wasting processes and erosion, promoting not only the initiation of rock couloirs and gullies, but also their propagation. Incorporating the geological control in geomorphic processes contributes to better understand the landscape evolution of active catchments. A sediment flux algorithm was implemented in a sediment cascade model that discretizes the torrent catchment in channel reaches and individual process-response systems. Each conceptual element includes in simple manner geomorphological and sediment flux information derived from GIS complemented with field mapping. This tool enables to simulate sediment transfers in channels considering evolving debris supply and conveyance, and helps reducing the uncertainty inherent to sediment budget prediction in torrent systems. Cette thèse est un recueil de projets d'études des processus de recharges sédimentaires des chenaux torrentiels. Ces travaux, réalisés lorsque j'étais employé à l'Université de Lausanne, se concentrent sur les implications géologiques et morphologiques des bassins dans l'apport de sédiments, élément fondamental dans la prédiction de laves torrentielles. D'autres aspects de dynamique sédimentaire ont été abordés, p. ex. le couplage torrent - bassin, ainsi qu'un modèle de simulation du transfert sédimentaire en milieu torrentiel. L'activité sédimentaire du Manival, un système torrentiel actif des Alpes françaises, a été étudiée par relevés au laser scanner terrestre et complétée par une étude géostructurale ainsi qu'un suivi du transfert en sédiments du torrent. Une année de flux sédimentaire a pu être observée, coïncidant avec deux laves torrentielles et plusieurs phénomènes de charriages. Cette étude a révélé que les laves s'étaient générées dans le torrent et étaient précédées par une recharge de débris depuis les versants. La production de débris s'est passée principalement en l'hiver - début du printemps, causée par de grandes ruptures de pentes. Le transfert était plus étrange, se produisant presque exclusivement au début du printemps subordonné aux conditions d'écoulement et en automne lors de longues pluies. Les orages d'été n'affectèrent guère les dépôts, qui semblent dépendre de leur stabilité. Les implications morpho-géologiques dans l'apport sédimentaire ont été évaluées à l'aide de MNT et études de terrain. Une classification de la topographie basée sur la pente a permis de charactériser le mode de production et transfert. Une analyse de stabilité de pente à partir des structures de roches a permis d'estimer la susceptibilité à la rupture. Les zones sources modélisées comprennent plus de 97% des chutes de blocs observées et les bilans sédimentaires sont corrélés à la densité de ruptures potentielles. Ce travail d'analyses des morphologies du terrain et de susceptibilité à la rupture documente la dynamique sédimentaire pour l'estimation quantitative des zones érosives induisant l'activité torrentielle. Le développement des formes d'érosion a été évalué par l'analyse de leur géométrie avec celle des ruptures potentielles et avec la direction de la fréquence maximale des joints. Les structures de roches, mais en particulier les dièdres et les discontinuités dominantes, semblent être très influents dans les mécanismes d'érosion affectant les bassins rocheux. Ils représentent des zones de faiblesse exploitées en priorité par les processus de démantèlement et d'érosion, encourageant l'initiation de ravines et couloirs, mais aussi leur propagation. L'incorporation du control géologique dans les processus de surface contribue à une meilleure compréhension de l'évolution topographique de bassins actifs. Un algorithme de flux sédimentaire a été implémenté dans un modèle en cascade, lequel divise le bassin en biefs et en systèmes individuels répondant aux processus. Chaque unité inclut de façon simple les informations géomorpologiques et celles du flux sédimentaire dérivées à partir de SIG et de cartographie de terrain. Cet outil permet la simulation des transferts de masse dans les chenaux, considérants la variabilité de l'apport et son transport, et aide à réduire l'incertitude liée à la prédiction de bilans sédimentaires torrentiels. Ce travail vise très humblement d'éclairer quelques aspects de la dynamique sédimentaire en milieu torrentiel.

Metastable liquid-liquid phase transition in a single-component system with only one crystal phase and no density anomaly

We investigate the phase behavior of a single-component system in three dimensions with spherically-symmetric, pairwise-additive, soft-core interactions with an attractive well at a long distance, a repulsive soft-core shoulder at an intermediate distance, and a hard-core repulsion at a short distance, similar to potentials used to describe liquid systems such as colloids, protein solutions, or liquid metals. We showed [Nature (London) 409, 692 (2001)] that, even with no evidence of the density anomaly, the phase diagram has two first-order fluid-fluid phase transitions, one ending in a gas¿low-density-liquid (LDL) critical point, and the other in a gas¿high-density-liquid (HDL) critical point, with a LDL-HDL phase transition at low temperatures. Here we use integral equation calculations to explore the three-parameter space of the soft-core potential and perform molecular dynamics simulations in the interesting region of parameters. For the equilibrium phase diagram, we analyze the structure of the crystal phase and find that, within the considered range of densities, the structure is independent of the density. Then, we analyze in detail the fluid metastable phases and, by explicit thermodynamic calculation in the supercooled phase, we show the absence of the density anomaly. We suggest that this absence is related to the presence of only one stable crystal structure.

Generalized adiabatic invariance

In this paper we find the quantities that are adiabatic invariants of any desired order for a general slowly time-dependent Hamiltonian. In a preceding paper, we chose a quantity that was initially an adiabatic invariant to first order, and sought the conditions to be imposed upon the Hamiltonian so that the quantum mechanical adiabatic theorem would be valid to mth order. [We found that this occurs when the first (m - 1) time derivatives of the Hamiltonian at the initial and final time instants are equal to zero.] Here we look for a quantity that is an adiabatic invariant to mth order for any Hamiltonian that changes slowly in time, and that does not fulfill any special condition (its first time derivatives are not zero initially and finally).

A high-sensitivity differential scanning calorimeter with magnetic field for magnetostructural transitions

We have developed a differential scanning calorimeter capable of working under applied magnetic fields of up to 5 T. The calorimeter is highly sensitive and operates over the temperature range 10¿300 K. It is shown that, after a proper calibration, the system enables determination of the latent heat and entropy changes in first-order solid¿solid phase transitions. The system is particularly useful for investigating materials that exhibit the giant magnetocaloric effect arising from a magnetostructural phase transition. Data for Gd5(Si0.1Ge0.9)4 are presented.

Entropy change and magnetocaloric effect in Gd5(SixGe1-x)4

Isothermal magnetization curves up to 23 T have been measured in Gd5Si1.8Ge2.2. We show that the values of the entropy change at the first-order magnetostructural transition, obtained from the Clausius-Clapeyron equation and the Maxwell relation, are coincident, provided the Maxwell relation is evaluated only within the transition region and the maximum applied field is high enough to complete the transition. These values are also in agreement with the entropy change obtained from differential scanning calorimetry. We also show that a simple phenomenological model based on the temperature and field dependence of the magnetization accounts for these results.

X-ray diffraction, thermal analysis, and Raman scattering study of K2BeF4 and comparation to other member of the (beta)-K2SO4 family with ferroelectric -paraelectric transition

Thermal analysis, powder diffraction, and Raman scattering as a function of the temperature were carried out on K2BeF4. Moreover, the crystal structure was determined at 293 K from powder diffraction. The compound shows a transition from Pna21 to Pnam space group at 921 K with a transition enthalpy of 5 kJ/mol. The transition is assumed to be first order because the compound shows metastability. Structurally and spectroscopically the transition is similar to those observed in (NH4)2SO4, which suggests that the low-temperature phase is ferroelectric. In order to confirm it, the spontaneous polarization has been computed using an ionic model.

The ability model of emotional intelligence: Searching for valid measures

Current measures of ability emotional intelligence (EI)--including the well-known Mayer-Salovey-Caruso Emotional Intelligence Test (MSCEIT)--suffer from several limitations, including low discriminant validity and questionable construct and incremental validity. We show that the MSCEIT is largely predicted by personality dimensions, general intelligence, and demographics having multiple R's with the MSCEIT branches up to .66; for the general EI factor this relation was even stronger (Multiple R = .76). As concerns the factor structure of the MSCEIT, we found support for four first-order factors, which had differential relations with personality, but no support for a higher-order global EI factor. We discuss implications for employing the MSCEIT, including (a) using the single branches scores rather than the total score, (b) always controlling for personality and general intelligence to ensure unbiased parameter estimates in the EI factors, and (c) correcting for measurement error. Failure to account for these methodological aspects may severely compromise predictive validity testing. We also discuss avenues for the improvement of ability-based tests.

Constraints on the permeability structure of alluvial aquifers from the poro-elastic inversion of multi-frequency P-wave velocity logs

We have explored the possibility of obtaining first-order permeability estimates for saturated alluvial sediments based on the poro-elastic interpretation of the P-wave velocity dispersion inferred from sonic logs. Modern sonic logging tools designed for environmental and engineering applications allow one for P-wave velocity measurements at multiple emitter frequencies over a bandwidth covering 5 to 10 octaves. Methodological considerations indicate that, for saturated unconsolidated sediments in the silt to sand range and typical emitter frequencies ranging from approximately 1 to 30 kHz, the observable velocity dispersion should be sufficiently pronounced to allow one for reliable first-order estimations of the permeability structure. The corresponding predictions have been tested on and verified for a borehole penetrating a typical surficial alluvial aquifer. In addition to multifrequency sonic logs, a comprehensive suite of nuclear and electrical logs, an S-wave log, a litholog, and a limited number laboratory measurements of the permeability from retrieved core material were also available. This complementary information was found to be essential for parameterizing the poro-elastic inversion procedure and for assessing the uncertainty and internal consistency of corresponding permeability estimates. Our results indicate that the thus obtained permeability estimates are largely consistent with those expected based on the corresponding granulometric characteristics, as well as with the available evidence form laboratory measurements. These findings are also consistent with evidence from ocean acoustics, which indicate that, over a frequency range of several orders-of-magnitude, the classical theory of poro-elasticity is generally capable of explaining the observed P-wave velocity dispersion in medium- to fine-grained seabed sediments

Chaotic Kabanov formula for the Azéma martingales

We derive the chaotic expansion of the product of nth- and first-order multiple stochastic integrals with respect to certain normal martingales. This is done by application of the classical and quantum product formulae for multiple stochastic integrals. Our approach extends existing results on chaotic calculus for normal martingales and exhibits properties, relative to multiple stochastic integrals, polynomials and Wick products, that characterize the Wiener and Poisson processes.