An Extended Pearson System Useful In Reliability Analysis

In the present environment, industry should provide the products of high quality. Quality of products is judged by the period of time they can successfully perform their intended functions without failure. The cause of the failures can be ascertained through life testing experiments and the times to failure due to different cause are likely to follow different distributions. Knowledge of this distribution is essential to eliminate causes of failures and thereby to improve the quality and the reliability of products. The main accomplishment expected to the study is to develop statistical tools that could facilitate solution to lifetime data arising in such and similar contexts

Thermo-Structural Analysis of 3D Composites

Three dimensional (3D) composites are strong contenders for the structural applications in situations like aerospace,aircraft and automotive industries where multidirectional thermal and mechanical stresses exist. The presence of reinforcement along the thickness direction in 3D composites,increases the through the thickness stiffness and strength properties.The 3D preforms can be manufactured with numerous complex architecture variations to meet the needs of specific applications.For hot structure applications Carbon-Carbon(C-C) composites are generally used,whose property variation with respect to temperature is essential for carrying out the design of hot structures.The thermomechanical behavior of 3D composites is not fully understood and reported.The methodology to find the thermomechanical properties using analytical modelling of 3D woven,3D 4-axes braided and 3D 5-axes braided composites from Representative Unit Cells(RUC's) based on constitutive equations for 3D composites has been dealt in the present study.High Temperature Unidirectional (UD) Carbon-Carbon material properties have been evaluated using analytical methods,viz.,Composite cylinder assemblage Model and Method of Cells based on experiments carried out on Carbon-Carbon fabric composite for a temparature range of 300 degreeK to 2800degreeK.These properties have been used for evaluating the 3D composite properties.From among the existing methods of solution sequences for 3D composites,"3D composite Strength Model" has been identified as the most suitable method.For thegeneration of material properies of RUC's od 3D composites,software has been developed using MATLAB.Correlaton of the analytically determined properties with test results available in literature has been established.Parametric studies on the variation of all the thermomechanical constants for different 3D performs of Carbon-Carbon material have been studied and selection criteria have been formulated for their applications for the hot structures.Procedure for the structural design of hot structures made of 3D Carbon-Carbon composites has been established through the numerical investigations on a Nosecap.Nonlinear transient thermal and nonlinear transient thermo-structural analysis on the Nosecap have been carried out using finite element software NASTRAN.Failure indices have been established for the identified performs,identification of suitable 3D composite based on parametric studies on strength properties and recommendation of this material for Nosecap of RLV based on structural performance have been carried out in this Study.Based on the 3D failure theory the best perform for the Nosecap has been identified as 4-axis 15degree braided composite.

Consequence modelling,vulnerability assessment and fuzzy fault tree analysis of hazardous storages in an industrial area

The hazards associated with major accident hazard (MAH) industries are fire, explosion and toxic gas releases. Of these, toxic gas release is the worst as it has the potential to cause extensive fatalities. Qualitative and quantitative hazard analyses are essential for the identitication and quantification of the hazards associated with chemical industries. This research work presents the results of a consequence analysis carried out to assess the damage potential of the hazardous material storages in an industrial area of central Kerala, India. A survey carried out in the major accident hazard (MAH) units in the industrial belt revealed that the major hazardous chemicals stored by the various industrial units are ammonia, chlorine, benzene, naphtha, cyclohexane, cyclohexanone and LPG. The damage potential of the above chemicals is assessed using consequence modelling. Modelling of pool fires for naphtha, cyclohexane, cyclohexanone, benzene and ammonia are carried out using TNO model. Vapor cloud explosion (VCE) modelling of LPG, cyclohexane and benzene are carried out using TNT equivalent model. Boiling liquid expanding vapor explosion (BLEVE) modelling of LPG is also carried out. Dispersion modelling of toxic chemicals like chlorine, ammonia and benzene is carried out using the ALOHA air quality model. Threat zones for different hazardous storages are estimated based on the consequence modelling. The distance covered by the threat zone was found to be maximum for chlorine release from a chlor-alkali industry located in the area. The results of consequence modelling are useful for the estimation of individual risk and societal risk in the above industrial area.Vulnerability assessment is carried out using probit functions for toxic, thermal and pressure loads. Individual and societal risks are also estimated at different locations. Mapping of threat zones due to different incident outcome cases from different MAH industries is done with the help of Are GIS.Fault Tree Analysis (FTA) is an established technique for hazard evaluation. This technique has the advantage of being both qualitative and quantitative, if the probabilities and frequencies of the basic events are known. However it is often difficult to estimate precisely the failure probability of the components due to insufficient data or vague characteristics of the basic event. It has been reported that availability of the failure probability data pertaining to local conditions is surprisingly limited in India. This thesis outlines the generation of failure probability values of the basic events that lead to the release of chlorine from the storage and filling facility of a major chlor-alkali industry located in the area using expert elicitation and proven fuzzy logic. Sensitivity analysis has been done to evaluate the percentage contribution of each basic event that could lead to chlorine release. Two dimensional fuzzy fault tree analysis (TDFFTA) has been proposed for balancing the hesitation factor invo1ved in expert elicitation .

Finite Element Analysis of Warship Structures

Warships are generally sleek, slender with V shaped sections and block coefficient below 0.5, compared to fuller forms and higher values for commercial ships. They normally operate in the higher Froude number regime, and the hydrodynamic design is primarily aimed at achieving higher speeds with the minimum power. Therefore the structural design and analysis methods are different from those for commercial ships. Certain design guidelines have been given in documents like Naval Engineering Standards and one of the new developments in this regard is the introduction of classification society rules for the design of warships.The marine environment imposes subjective and objective uncertainties on ship structure. The uncertainties in loads, material properties etc.,. make reliable predictions of ship structural response a difficult task. Strength, stiffness and durability criteria for warship structures can be established by investigations on elastic analysis, ultimate strength analysis and reliability analysis. For analysis of complicated warship structures, special means and valid approximations are required.Preliminary structural design of a frigate size ship has been carried out . A finite element model of the hold model, representative of the complexities in the geometric configuration has been created using the finite element software NISA. Two other models representing the geometry to a limited extent also have been created —- one with two transverse frames and the attached plating alongwith the longitudinal members and the other representing the plating and longitudinal stiffeners between two transverse frames. Linear static analysis of the three models have been carried out and each one with three different boundary conditions. The structural responses have been checked for deflections and stresses against the permissible values. The structure has been found adequate in all the cases. The stresses and deflections predicted by the frame model are comparable with those of the hold model. But no such comparison has been realized for the interstiffener plating model with the other two models.Progressive collapse analyses of the models have been conducted for the three boundary conditions, considering geometric nonlinearity and then combined geometric and material nonlinearity for the hold and the frame models. von Mises — lllyushin yield criteria with elastic-perfectly plastic stress-strain curve has been chosen. ln each case, P-Delta curves have been generated and the ultimate load causing failure (ultimate load factor) has been identified as a multiple of the design load specified by NES.Reliability analysis of the hull module under combined geometric and material nonlinearities have been conducted. The Young's Modulus and the shell thickness have been chosen as the variables. Randomly generated values have been used in the analysis. First Order Second Moment has been used to predict the reliability index and thereafter, the probability of failure. The values have been compared against standard values published in literature.

Modelling and Analysis of Recurrent Event Data with Multiple Causes

This thesis Entitled “modelling and analysis of recurrent event data with multiple causes.Survival data is a term used for describing data that measures the time to occurrence of an event.In survival studies, the time to occurrence of an event is generally referred to as lifetime.Recurrent event data are commonly encountered in longitudinal studies when individuals are followed to observe the repeated occurrences of certain events. In many practical situations, individuals under study are exposed to the failure due to more than one causes and the eventual failure can be attributed to exactly one of these causes.The proposed model was useful in real life situations to study the effect of covariates on recurrences of certain events due to different causes.In Chapter 3, an additive hazards model for gap time distributions of recurrent event data with multiple causes was introduced. The parameter estimation and asymptotic properties were discussed .In Chapter 4, a shared frailty model for the analysis of bivariate competing risks data was presented and the estimation procedures for shared gamma frailty model, without covariates and with covariates, using EM algorithm were discussed. In Chapter 6, two nonparametric estimators for bivariate survivor function of paired recurrent event data were developed. The asymptotic properties of the estimators were studied. The proposed estimators were applied to a real life data set. Simulation studies were carried out to find the efficiency of the proposed estimators.

Some concepts and models usefulninthe analysis of discrete life time data

This thesis entitled Reliability Modelling and Analysis in Discrete time Some Concepts and Models Useful in the Analysis of discrete life time data.The present study consists of five chapters. In Chapter II we take up the derivation of some general results useful in reliability modelling that involves two component mixtures. Expression for the failure rate, mean residual life and second moment of residual life of the mixture distributions in terms of the corresponding quantities in the component distributions are investigated. Some applications of these results are also pointed out. The role of the geometric,Waring and negative hypergeometric distributions as models of life lengths in the discrete time domain has been discussed already. While describing various reliability characteristics, it was found that they can be often considered as a class. The applicability of these models in single populations naturally extends to the case of populations composed of sub-populations making mixtures of these distributions worth investigating. Accordingly the general properties, various reliability characteristics and characterizations of these models are discussed in chapter III. Inference of parameters in mixture distribution is usually a difficult problem because the mass function of the mixture is a linear function of the component masses that makes manipulation of the likelihood equations, leastsquare function etc and the resulting computations.very difficult. We show that one of our characterizations help in inferring the parameters of the geometric mixture without involving computational hazards. As mentioned in the review of results in the previous sections, partial moments were not studied extensively in literature especially in the case of discrete distributions. Chapters IV and V deal with descending and ascending partial factorial moments. Apart from studying their properties, we prove characterizations of distributions by functional forms of partial moments and establish recurrence relations between successive moments for some well known families. It is further demonstrated that partial moments are equally efficient and convenient compared to many of the conventional tools to resolve practical problems in reliability modelling and analysis. The study concludes by indicating some new problems that surfaced during the course of the present investigation which could be the subject for a future work in this area.

Nonlinear Analysis of Shear Dominant Prestressed Concrete Beams using ANSYS

This study reports the details of the finite element analysis of eleven shear critical partially prestressed concrete T-beams having steel fibers over partial or full depth. Prestressed T-beams having a shear span to depth ratio of 2.65 and 1.59 that failed in shear have been analyzed using the ‘ANSYS’ program. The ‘ANSYS’ model accounts for the nonlinearity, such as, bond-slip of longitudinal reinforcement, postcracking tensile stiffness of the concrete, stress transfer across the cracked blocks of the concrete and load sustenance through the bridging action of steel fibers at crack interface. The concrete is modeled using ‘SOLID65’- eight-node brick element, which is capable of simulating the cracking and crushing behavior of brittle materials. The reinforcement such as deformed bars, prestressing wires and steel fibers have been modeled discretely using ‘LINK8’ – 3D spar element. The slip between the reinforcement (rebars, fibers) and the concrete has been modeled using a ‘COMBIN39’- nonlinear spring element connecting the nodes of the ‘LINK8’ element representing the reinforcement and nodes of the ‘SOLID65’ elements representing the concrete. The ‘ANSYS’ model correctly predicted the diagonal tension failure and shear compression failure of prestressed concrete beams observed in the experiment. The capability of the model to capture the critical crack regions, loads and deflections for various types of shear failures in prestressed concrete beam has been illustrated.

Flexure-shear Analysis of Concrete Beam Reinforced with GFRP bars

This paper gives the details of flexure-shear analysis of concrete beams reinforced with GFRP rebars. The influence of vertical reinforcement ratio, longitudinal reinforcement ratio and compressive strength of concrete on shear strength of GFRP reinforced concrete beam is studied. The critical value of shear span to depth ratio (a/d) at which the mode of failure changes from flexure to shear is studied. The fail-ure load of the beam is predicted for various values of a/d ratio. The prediction show that the longitudinally FRP reinforced concrete beams having no stirrups fail in shear for a/d ratio less than 9.0. It is expected that the predicted data is useful for structural engineers to design the FRP reinforced concrete members.

Crisis or failure of hegemonic masculinities in David Lodge’s Campus Trilogy

This bachelor’s thesis examines the crisis of hegemonic masculinities in David Lodge’s Campus Trilogy. In the course of the thesis, I demonstrate that the male characters in the novels aspire to hegemonic ideals of masculinity, but that ultimately most of them fail in their aspirations. However, I also show that this does not lead to the abandonment of this pursuit, but merely to its reformulation and a continued attempt of male characters to aspire to this reformulated ideal. In order to achieve this, I conduct a close reading of the novels and based on this, first determine the predominant types of hegemonic masculinities in each novel, and then whether certain characters aspire to these hegemonic ideals. Next I analyze whether or not they are successful. This analysis is chiefly based on the sociological concept of hegemonic masculinities developed by Connell. With the help of this concept, this thesis shows that several types of masculinities can be identified in the novels and that these exist in hierarchical relation to each other. Furthermore, it shows that these aspirations and the ideals themselves are always prone to crises that are brought on by societal changes in their environment. However, it is also demonstrated that in most cases these crises do not lead to the collapse of the ideal or the failure of its pursuit, but rather to the reformulation and continuation of both.

"Genome-Wide Linkage in a Highly Consanguineous Pedigree Reveals Two Novel Loci on Chromosome 7 for Non-Syndromic Familial Premature Ovarian Failure"

Background: The human condition known as Premature Ovarian Failure (POF) is characterized by loss of ovarian function before the age of 40. A majority of POF cases are sporadic, but 10–15% are familial, suggesting a genetic origin of the disease. Although several causal mutations have been identified, the etiology of POF is still unknown for about 90% of the patients. Methodology/Principal Findings: We report a genome-wide linkage and homozygosity analysis in one large consanguineous Middle-Eastern POF-affected family presenting an autosomal recessive pattern of inheritance. We identified two regions with a LODmax of 3.26 on chromosome 7p21.1-15.3 and 7q21.3-22.2, which are supported as candidate regions by homozygosity mapping. Sequencing of the coding exons and known regulatory sequences of three candidate genes (DLX5, DLX6 and DSS1) included within the largest region did not reveal any causal mutations. Conclusions/Significance: We detect two novel POF-associated loci on human chromosome 7, opening the way to the identification of new genes involved in the control of ovarian development and function.

Conceptualization and therapeutic treatment of a compulsive gambling case by Functional Analysis and Acceptance and Commitment Therapy

A clinical case of compulsive gambling is exposed in this article. The subject’s playing behaviour had both positive and negative consequences. The subject tried to practice control over the urge to play. As shown in the functional analysis, the failure to control the urge despite the best efforts worsened the problem due to its negative consequences. A variation of acceptance and commitment therapy (ACT) was applied in order to break down the fight-surrender vicious circle of the playing behaviour. Two treatment strategies were agreed upon: acceptance of the fact that both playing and not playing had negatives consequences and commitment to one of these options despite its disadvantages. Finally, it is proposed that this acceptance and commitment therapy is a useful therapeutic process as it decreases the suffering subject and eliminates the problem: playing bahaviour.

Overcoming Gender Disadvantages. Social Policy Analysis of urban middle-class women in Colombia

The World Bank Report 2012 starts with this statement: “Gender equality matters in itself andit matters for development because, in today’s globalized worlds, countries that use the skillsand talents of their women would have an advantage over those which do not use it.” With theframe that suggest that gender equality matters, this paper describes some policy alternativesoriented to overcome gender disadvantages in the formal labor market incorporation of theurban middle class women in Colombia. On balance, the final recommendation suggest that itis desirable to adopt policy alternatives as Community Centers, which are programs orientedto a social redistribution of the domestic work as a way to encourage women participationin the formal labor market with the social support of the members of their own community.The problem that the social policy needs to address is the segregation of women in the formallabor market in Colombia. Although the evidence shows that the women overcome theeducational gap by showing better performance in education that their male peers, womenare still segregated of the labor market. The persistence of high rates of unemployment on thefemale population, the prevalence of the informal labor market as a women labor market, andthe presence of the payment difference between men and women with similar professionaltrainings are circumstances that sustain the segregation statement. These circumstances areinefficient for the society because an economic analysis shows that the cost of maintain the statuquo is externalized in the social security system that includes health, pension and maternityleave regimens. Therefore, the women segregation involves a market failure.This paper evaluates five policy alternatives each directed to the progress of a different causaldimension of the problem: (i) Quotas in the private market, (ii) Flexible working hours,(iii) replace the maternity leave with a family leave, (iv) Increase the Community Centers forredistributing the care work, and (v) Equal payment enforcement. The first alternative looksto increase women’s participation in the formal labor market. The second, third, and fourthalternatives constitute a package addressed at redistributing care work by reducing women’sresponsibility for reproductive work in the household with the help of husbands and the localgovernment. The fifth alternative intervenes to resolve the equal payment problem.After a four criteria evaluation that measure effectiveness, robustness and improbability inimplementation, efficiency and political acceptability or social opposition, the strongest alternativeis the fostering of Community Centers that promote a redistribution of care work. Thispolicy performs well in the assessment process because it combines gender focus with importantindirect effects: child support and human capabilities. The policy also shows a bottomup implementation process that overcomes the main adoption difficulties in the gender focusprograms and is supported by strong evidence of success in the Colombian context; this evidenceis produced by both transnational actors as a World Bank and also in local accountabilityreporters executed by local institutions like Colombian Institute of Family Welfare (ICBF).

Analysis and Simulation of Transverse Random Fracture of Long Fibre Reinforced Composites

La present tesi proposa una metodología per a la simulació probabilística de la fallada de la matriu en materials compòsits reforçats amb fibres de carboni, basant-se en l'anàlisi de la distribució aleatòria de les fibres. En els primers capítols es revisa l'estat de l'art sobre modelització matemàtica de materials aleatoris, càlcul de propietats efectives i criteris de fallada transversal en materials compòsits. El primer pas en la metodologia proposada és la definició de la determinació del tamany mínim d'un Element de Volum Representatiu Estadístic (SRVE) . Aquesta determinació es du a terme analitzant el volum de fibra, les propietats elàstiques efectives, la condició de Hill, els estadístics de les components de tensió i defromació, la funció de densitat de probabilitat i les funcions estadístiques de distància entre fibres de models d'elements de la microestructura, de diferent tamany. Un cop s'ha determinat aquest tamany mínim, es comparen un model periòdic i un model aleatori, per constatar la magnitud de les diferències que s'hi observen. Es defineix, també, una metodologia per a l'anàlisi estadístic de la distribució de la fibra en el compòsit, a partir d'imatges digitals de la secció transversal. Aquest anàlisi s'aplica a quatre materials diferents. Finalment, es proposa un mètode computacional de dues escales per a simular la fallada transversal de làmines unidireccionals, que permet obtenir funcions de densitat de probabilitat per a les variables mecàniques. Es descriuen algunes aplicacions i possibilitats d'aquest mètode i es comparen els resultats obtinguts de la simulació amb valors experimentals.

Biosecurity in agriculture: an economic analysis of coexistence of professional and hobby production

One component of biosecurity is protection against invasive alien species, which are one of the most important threats worldwide to native biodiversity and economic profitability in various sectors, including agriculture. However, agricultural producers are not homogeneous. They may have different objectives and priorities, use different technologies, and occupy heterogeneous parcels of land. If the producers differ in terms of their attitude towards invasive pests and the damages they cause, there are probably external effects in the form of pest spread impacts and subsequent damages caused. We study such impacts in the case of two producer types: profit-seeking professional producers and utility-seeking hobby producers. We show that the hobby producer, having first set a breeding ground for the pest, under-invests in pest control. We also discuss potential policy instruments to correct this market failure and highlight the importance of considering different stakeholders and their heterogeneous incentives when designing policies to control invasive alien species.

Cost-benefit analysis model of badger (Meles meles) culling to reduce cattle herd tuberculosis breakdowns in Britain, with particular reference to badger perturbation

Bovine tuberculosis (TB)is an important economic disease. Badgers (Meles meles) are the wildlife source implicated in many cattle outbreaks of TB in Britain, and extensive badger control is a controversial option to reduce the disease. A badger and cattle population model was developed, simulating TB epidemiology; badger ecology, including postcull social perturbation; and TB-related farm management. An economic cost-benefit module was integrated into the model to assess whether badger control offers economic benefits. Model results strongly indicate that although, if perturbation were restricted, extensive badger culling could reduce rates in cattle, overall an economic loss would be more likely than a benefit. Perturbation of the badger population was a key factor determining success or failure of control. The model highlighted some important knowledge gaps regarding both the spatial and temporal characteristics of perturbation that warrant further research.