Quasi-stationarity in populations that are subject to large-scale mortality or emigration

We shall examine a model, first studied by Brockwell et al. [Adv Appl Probab 14 (1982) 709.], which can be used to describe the longterm behaviour of populations that are subject to catastrophic mortality or emigration events. Populations can suffer dramatic declines when disease, such as an introduced virus, affects the population, or when food shortages occur, due to overgrazing or fluctuations in rainfall. However, perhaps surprisingly, such populations can survive for long periods and, although they may eventually become extinct, they can exhibit an apparently stationary regime. It is useful to be able to model this behaviour. This is particularly true of the ecological examples that motivated the present study, since, in order to properly manage these populations, it is necessary to be able to predict persistence times and to estimate the conditional probability distribution of population size. We shall see that although our model predicts eventual extinction, the time till extinction can be long and the stationary exhibited by these populations over any reasonable time scale can be explained using a quasistationary distribution. (C) 2001 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Effects of sampling opportunities on preference for adults with severe disabilities

A variable that appears to affect preference development is the exposure to a variety of options. Providing opportunities for systematically sampling different options is one procedure that can facilitate the development of preference, which is indicated by the consistency of selections. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the effects of providing sampling opportunities on the preference development for two adults with severe disabilities. Opportunities for sampling a variety of drink items were presented, followed by choice opportunities for selections at the site where sampling occurred and at a non-sampling site (a grocery store). Results show that the participants developed a definite response consistency in selections at both sites. Implications for sampling practices are discussed.

Feasibility of an evidence-based literature search service for general practitioners

Objective: To test the feasibility of an evidence-based clinical literature search service to help answer general practitioners' (GPs') clinical questions. Design: Two search services supplied GPs who submitted questions with the best available empirical evidence to answer these questions. The GPs provided feedback on the value of the service, and concordance of answers from the two search services was assessed. Setting: Two literature search services (Queensland and Victoria), operating for nine months from February 1999. Main outcome measures: Use of the service; time taken to locate answers; availability of evidence; value of the service to GPs; and consistency of answers from the two services. Results: 58 GPs asked 160 questions (29 asked one, 11 asked five or more). The questions concerned treatment (65%), aetiology (17%), prognosis (13%), and diagnosis (5%). Answering a question took a mean of 3 hours 32 minutes of personnel time (95% Cl, 2.67-3.97); nine questions took longer than 10 hours each to answer, the longest taking 23 hours 30 minutes. Evidence of suitable quality to provide a sound answer was available for 126 (79%) questions. Feedback data for 84 (53%) questions, provided by 42 GPs, showed that they appreciated the service, and asking the questions changed clinical care. There were many minor differences between the answers from the two centres, and substantial differences in the evidence found for 4/14 questions. However, conclusions reached were largely similar, with no or only minor differences for all questions. Conclusions: It is feasible to provide a literature search service, but further assessment is needed to establish its cost effectiveness.

A formal representation of assumptions in process modelling

In this work, we present a systematic approach to the representation of modelling assumptions. Modelling assumptions form the fundamental basis for the mathematical description of a process system. These assumptions can be translated into either additional mathematical relationships or constraints between model variables, equations, balance volumes or parameters. In order to analyse the effect of modelling assumptions in a formal, rigorous way, a syntax of modelling assumptions has been defined. The smallest indivisible syntactical element, the so called assumption atom has been identified as a triplet. With this syntax a modelling assumption can be described as an elementary assumption, i.e. an assumption consisting of only an assumption atom or a composite assumption consisting of a conjunction of elementary assumptions. The above syntax of modelling assumptions enables us to represent modelling assumptions as transformations acting on the set of model equations. The notion of syntactical correctness and semantical consistency of sets of modelling assumptions is defined and necessary conditions for checking them are given. These transformations can be used in several ways and their implications can be analysed by formal methods. The modelling assumptions define model hierarchies. That is, a series of model families each belonging to a particular equivalence class. These model equivalence classes can be related to primal assumptions regarding the definition of mass, energy and momentum balance volumes and to secondary and tiertinary assumptions regarding the presence or absence and the form of mechanisms within the system. Within equivalence classes, there are many model members, these being related to algebraic model transformations for the particular model. We show how these model hierarchies are driven by the underlying assumption structure and indicate some implications on system dynamics and complexity issues. (C) 2001 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Standardizing assessment of adverse effects in rheumatology clinical trials. Status of OMERACT Toxicity Working Group March 2000: Towards a common understanding of comparative toxicity/safety profiles for antirheumatic therapies

This paper describes the background and current status of an OMERACT facilitated effort to improve the consistency of adverse event reporting in rheumatology clinical trials, The overall goal is the development of an adverse event assessment tool that would provide a basis for use of common terminology and improve the consistency of reporting severity of side effects within rheumatology clinical trials and during postmarketing surveillance. The resulting Rheumatology Common Toxicity Criteria Index encompassed the following organ systems: allergic/immunologic, cardiac, ENT, gastrointestinal, musculoskeletal, neuropsychiatric, ophthalmologic, pulmonary and skin/integument. Before this tool is widely accepted, its validity, consistency, and feasibility need to be assessed in clinical trials.

The validity of an Australian modification of the AUDIT questionnaire

The Alcohol Use Disorders Identification Test (AUDIT) has been used widely and is reported to be superior to conventional questionnaires in detection of current hazardous and harmful alcohol use. We assessed the validity of an Australian modification of the AUDIT (the AusAUDIT), which has been employed widely in Australian and New Zealand early intervention programmes. We used a cross-sectional study of 370 subjects from the follow-up phase of a randomized controlled trial of early intervention to reduce hazardous alcohol consumption. Scores on the AusAUDIT were compared against 12-month ICD-10 diagnoses of harmful alcohol use and dependence, as determined by the Composite International Diagnostic Interview, and against self-report of alcohol consumption exceeding Australian National Health and Medical Research Council (NH&MRC) recommended limits. AusAUDIT had good internal consistency and discriminated significantly between persons meeting criteria for ICD-10 alcohol use disorders, and drinkers who did not. At currently recommended cut-off scores, AusAUDIT detected more than 85% of people meeting criteria for ICD-10 alcohol use disorders, or drinking over NH&MRC recommended limits, but its specificity was limited (29% in men, and 58% in women for drinking over NH&MRC limits). No subset of questions performed as well as the full AusAUDIT in detection of drinking problems, but the alcohol consumption items provided a reasonable screen for drinking over NH&MRC limits. We conclude that AusAUDIT is effective in detecting problematic drinking, but positive cases should be confirmed by clinical assessment. The findings illustrate the need for validation of questionnaire modifications, and the difficulty in increasing test sensitivity without reducing specificity.

Diurnal changes in the photochemical efficiency of the symbiotic dinoflagellates (Dinophyceae) of corals: photoprotection, photoinactivation and the relationship to coral bleaching

The photochemical efficiency of symbiotic dinoflagellates within the tissues of two reef-building corals in response to normal and excess irradiance at wafer temperatures < 30 C were investigated using pulse amplitude modulated (PAM) chlorophyll fluorescence techniques, Dark-adapted F-v/F-m showed clear diurnal changes, decreasing to a low at solar noon and increasing in the afternoon. However, F-v/F-m also drifted downwards at night or in prolonged darkness, and increased rapidly during the early morning twilight. This parameter also increased when the oxygen concentration of the wafer holding the corals was increased. Such changes have not been described previously, and most probably reflect state transition's associated with PQ pool reduction via chlororespiration. These unusual characteristics may be a feature of an endosymbiotic environment, reflective of the well-documented night-time tissue hypoxia that occurs in corals. F-v/F-m decreased to 0.25 in response to full sunlight in shade-acclimated (shade) colonies of Stylophora pistillata, which is considerably lower than in light-acclimated (sun) colonies. In sun colonies, the reversible decrease in F-v/F-m was caused by a lowering of F-m and F-o suggesting photoprotection and no lasting damage. The decrease in F-v/F-m, however, was caused by a decrease in F-m and an increase in F-o in shade colonies suggesting photoinactivation and long-term cumulative photoinhibition. Shade colonies rapidly lost their symbiotic algae (bleached) during exposure to full sunlight. This study is consistent with the hypothesis that excess light leads to chronic damage of symbiotic dinoflagellates and their eventual removal from reef-building corals. It is significant that this can occur with high light conditions alone.

Validation of the Edinburgh Postnatal Depression Scale for men, and comparison of item endorsement with their partners

Background: The Edinburgh Postnatal Depression Scale (EPDS) has been validated and used extensively in screening for depression in new mothers, both in English speaking and non-English speaking communities. While some studies have reported the use of the EPDS with Fathers, none have validated it for this group, and thus the appropriate cut-off score for screening for depression or anxiety caseness for this population is not known. Method: Couples were recruited antenatally and interviewed at six weeks postpartum. EPDS scores and distress caseness (depression or anxiety disorders) for 208 fathers and 230 mothers were determined using the Diagnostic Interview Schedule. Results: Analyses of the EPDS for fathers using distress caseness (depression or anxiety disorders) as the criterion shows that a cut-off of 5/6 has optimum receiver operating characteristics. Furthermore acceptable reliability (split-half and internal consistency) and validity (concurrent) coefficients were obtained. For mothers the optimum cut-off screening value to detect distress caseness was 7/8. Item analysis revealed that fathers endorsed seven of the ten items at lower rates to mothers, with the most significant being that referring to crying. Conclusions: The EPDS is a reliable and valid measure of mood in fathers. Screening for depression or anxiety disorders in fathers requires a two point lower cut-off than screening for depression or anxiety in mothers, and we recommend this cut-off to he 5/6. (C) 2001 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

Swallowing outcomes following laryngectomy and pharyngolaryngectomy

Objectives: To determine the incidence of dysphagia (defined as the inability to manage a diet of normal consistencies) at hospital discharge and beyond 1 year post-surgery and examine the impact of persistent dysphagia on levels of disability, handicap, and well-being in patients. Design: Retrospective review and patient contact. Setting: Adult acute care tertiary hospital. Patients: The study group, consecutively sampled from January 1993 to December 1997, comprised 55 patients who underwent total laryngectomy and 37 patients who underwent pharyngolaryngectomy with free jejunal reconstruction. Follow-up with 36 of 55 laryngectomy and 14 of 37 pharyngolaryngectomy patients was conducted 1 to 6 years postsurgery. Main Outcome Measures: Number of days until the resumption of oral intake; swallowing complications prior to and following discharge; types of diets managed at discharge and follow-up; and ratings of disability, handicap, and distress levels related to swallowing. Results: Fifty four (98%) of the laryngectomy and 37 (100%) of the pharyngolaryngectomy patients experienced dysphagia at discharge. By approximately 3 years postsurgery, 21 (58%) of the laryngectomy and 7 (50%) of the pharyngolaryngectomy patients managed a normal diet. Pharyngolaryngectomy patients experienced increased duration of nasogastric feeding, time to resume oral intake, and incidence of early complications affecting swallowing. Patients experiencing long-term dysphagia identified significantly increased levels of disability, handicap, and distress. Patients without dysphagia also experienced slight levels of handicap and distress resulting from taste changes and increased durations required to complete meals of normal consistency. Conclusions: The true incidence of patients experiencing a compromise in swallowing following surgery has been underestimated. The significant impact of impaired swallowing on a patient's level of perceived disability, handicap, and distress highlights the importance of providing optimal management of this negative consequence of surgery to maximize the patient's quality of life.

Detection of the initial infective stages of the protozoan parasite Marteilia sydneyi in Saccostrea glomerata and their development through to sporogenesis

DNA probes were used in in situ hybridisation on histological sections of oysters exposed for defined intervals to Marteilia sydneyi infection to reveal the early development of the parasite in the oyster host, Saccostrea glomerata. The initial infective stages enter through the palps and gills whereupon extrasporogonic proliferation results in the liberation of cells into surrounding connective tissue and haemolymph spaces. Following systemic dissemination, the parasite infiltrates the digestive gland and becomes established as a nurse cell beneath the epithelial cells ill a digestive tubule. Here, cell-within-cell proliferation results in the eventual liberation of daughter cells from the nurse cell into spaces between adjacent epithelial cells. None of these stages had previously been described. Proliferation is associated with host responses, including haemocytic infiltration of the connective tissue and diapedesis across tubule epithelia. The responses cease as sporogenesis begins. (C) 2002 Australian Society for Parasitology Inc. Published by Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Preliminary characterisation and extraction of anterior adhesive secretion in monogenean (platyhelminth) parasites

Secreted anterior adhesives, used for temporary attachment to epithelial surfaces of fishes (skin and gills) by some monogenean (platyhelminth) parasites have been partially characterised. Adhesive is composed of protein. Amino acid composition has been determined for seven monopisthocotylean monogeneans. Six of these belong to the Monocotylidae and one species, Entobdella soleae (van Beneden et Hesse, 1864) Johnston, 1929, is a member of the Capsalidae. Histochemistry shows that the adhesive does not contain polysaccharides, including acid mucins, or lipids. The adhesive before secretion and in its secreted form contains no dihydroxyphenylalanine (dopa). Secreted adhesive is highly insoluble, but has a soft consistency and is mechanically removable from glass surfaces. Generally there are high levels of glycine and alanine, low levels of tyrosine and methionine, and histidine is often absent. However, amino acid content varies between species, the biggest differences evident when the monocotylid monogeneans were compared with E. soleae. Monogenean adhesive shows similarity in amino acid profile with adhesives from starfish, limpets and barnacles. However, there are some differences in individual amino acids in the temporary adhesive secretions of, on the one hand, the monogeneans and, on the other hand, the starfish and limpets. These differences may reflect the fact that monogeneans, unlike starfish and barnacles, attach to living tissue (tissue adhesion). A method of extracting unsecreted adhesive was investigated for use in further characterisation studies on monogenean glues.

Lead stimulus modality change and the attentional modulation of the acoustic and electrical blink reflex

Two experiments investigated the effects of the sensory modality of the lead and of the blink-eliciting stimulus during lead stimulus modality change on blink modulation at lead intervals of 2500 and 3500 ins. Participants were presented with acoustic, visual, or tactile change stimuli after habituation training with lead stimuli from the same or a different sensory modality. In Experiment 1, latency and magnitude of the acoustic blink were facilitated during a change to acoustic or visual lead stimuli, but not during a change to tactile lead stimuli. After habituation to acoustic lead stimuli, blink magnitude was smaller during tactile change stimuli than during habituation stimuli. The latter finding was replicated in Experiment 2 in which blink was elicited by electrical stimulation of the trigeminal nerve. The consistency of the findings across different combinations of lead stimulus and blink-eliciting stimulus modalities does not support a modality-specific account of attentional blink modulation. Rather, blink modulation during generalized orienting reflects modality non-specific processes, although modulation may not always be found during tactile lead stimuli. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

Improving attitude-behavior correspondence through exposure to normative support from a salient ingroup

Two experiments were conducted to test predictions derived from social identity/self-categorization theory concerning the role of group norms in attitude-behavior consistency. In Experiment 1, 160 students who could be classified as having a more or less certain target attitude were exposed to attitude congruent versus incongruent normative support from a relevant reference group (own university) under conditions of low versus high group salience. Experiment 2 was very similar in design and methodology (N=180), but a different correlate of attitude accessibility was used (an experimental manipulation of repeated expression), the target attitude was changed, and the reference group was gender. Across the 2 experiments there was consistent support for the hypothesis that participants would behave more in accordance with their attitudes when they received normative support for, rather than opposition to, their original attitude from a relevant reference group (i.e., their ingroup, not an outgroup). There was slightly weaker support for the second hypothesis that this effect would be stronger under high-than low-salience conditions. The third hypothesis (see Fazio, 1986), that attitude certainty and repeated expression of the attitude would strengthen attitude-behavior consistency, was well supported, as was the expectation that accessibility effects would be independent of reference group norm effects on attitude-behavior consistency.

Marine and estuarine reservoir effects in central Queensland, Australia: Determination of Delta R values

As a component of archaeological investigations on the central Queensland coast, a series of five marine shell specimens live-collected between A.D. 1904 and A.D. 1929 and 11 shell/ charcoal paired samples from archaeological contexts were radiocarbon dated to determine local DeltaR values. The object of the study was to assess the potential influence of localized variation in marine reservoir effect in accurately determining the age of marine and estuarine shell from archaeological deposits in the area. Results indicate that the routinely applied DeltaR value of -5 +/- 35 for northeast Australia is erroneously calculated. The determined values suggest a minor revision to Reimer and Reimer's (2000) recommended value for northeast Australia from DeltaR = +11 +/- 5 to + 12 +/- 7, and specifically for central Queensland to DeltaR = +10 +/- 7, for near-shore open marine environments. In contrast, data obtained from estuarine shell/charcoal pairs demonstrate a general lack of consistency, suggesting estuary-specific patterns of variation in terrestrial carbon input and exchange with the open ocean. Preliminary data indicate that in some estuaries, at some time periods, a DeltaR value of more than - 155 +/- 55 may be appropriate, In estuarine contexts in central Queensland, a localized estuary-specific correction factor is recommended to account for geographical and temporal variation in C-14 activity. (C) 2002 Wiley Periodicals.

Shoulder movement after breast cancer surgery: results of a randomised controlled study of postoperative physiotherapy

Breast screening programmes have facilitated more conservative approaches to the surgical and radiotherapy management of women diagnosed with breast cancer. This study investigated changes in shoulder movement after surgery for primary, operable breast cancer to determine the effect of elective physiotherapy intervention. Sixty-five women were randomly assigned to either the treatment (TG) or control group (CG) and assessments were completed preoperatively, at day 5 and at 1 month, 3, 6, 12 and 24 months postoperatively. The CG only received an exercise instruction booklet in comparison to the TG who received the Physiotherapy Management Care Plan (PMCP). Analyses of variance revealed that abduction returned to preoperative levels more quickly in the TG than in the CG. The TG women had 14degrees more abduction at 3 months and 7degrees at 24 months. Functional recovery at 1 month was greater in those randomised to the TG, with a dominant operated arm (OA) or receiving breast-conserving surgery. However, it was not possible to predict recovery over the 2 years postoperatively on the basis of an individual woman's recovery at 1 month postoperatively. The eventual recovery of abduction or flexion range of movement was not related to the dominance of the OA nor to the surgical procedure performed. The PMCP provided in the early postoperative period is effective in facilitating and maintaining the recovery of shoulder movement over the first 2 years after breast cancer surgery.