A common framework for approaches to extreme event attribution

The extent to which a given extreme weather or climate event is attributable to anthropogenic climate change is a question of considerable public interest. From a scientific perspective, the question can be framed in various ways, and the answer depends very much on the framing. One such framing is a risk-based approach, which answers the question probabilistically, in terms of a change in likelihood of a class of event similar to the one in question, and natural variability is treated as noise. A rather different framing is a storyline approach, which examines the role of the various factors contributing to the event as it unfolded, including the anomalous aspects of natural variability, and answers the question deterministically. It is argued that these two apparently irreconcilable approaches can be viewed within a common framework, where the most useful level of conditioning will depend on the question being asked and the uncertainties involved.

The impact of the abrupt 8.2 ka cold event on the Mesolithic population of western Scotland: a Bayesian chronological analysis using ‘activity events’ as a population proxy

The potential impact of the abrupt 8.2 ka cold event on human demography, settlement patterns and culture in Europe and the Near East has emerged as a key theme in current discussion and debate. We test whether this event had an impact on the Mesolithic population of western Scotland, a case study located within the North Atlantic region where the environmental impact of the 8.2 ka event is likely to have been the most severe. By undertaking a Bayesian analysis of the radiocarbon record and using the number of activity events as a proxy for the size of the human population, we find evidence for a dramatic reduction in the Mesolithic population synchronous with the 8.2 ka event. We interpret this as reflecting the demographic collapse of a low density population that lacked the capability to adapt to the rapid onset of new environmental conditions. This impact of the 8.2 ka event in the North Atlantic region lends credence to the possibility of a similar impact on populations in Continental Europe and the Near East.

Large reorganizations in butterfly communities during an extreme weather event

Drought events are projected to increase in frequency and magnitude, which may alter the composition of ecological communities. Using a functional community metric that describes abundance, life history traits and conservation status, based upon Grime’s CSR (Competitive-Stress tolerant-Ruderal)¬ scheme, we investigated how British butterfly communities changed during an extreme drought in 1995. Throughout Britain, the total abundance of these insects had a significant tendency to increase, accompanied by substantial changes in community composition, particularly in more northerly, wetter sites. Communities tended to shift away from specialist, vulnerable species, and towards generalist, widespread species and, in the year following, communities had yet to return to equilibrium. Importantly, heterogeneity in surrounding landscapes mediated community responses to the drought event. Contrary to expectation, however, community shifts were more extreme in areas of greater topographic diversity, whilst land-cover diversity buffered community changes and limited declines in vulnerable specialist butterflies.

An event of stratospheric air intrusion and its associated secondary surface cyclogenesis over the South Atlantic Ocean

This work presents an analysis of a lowermost stratospheric air intrusion event over the coast of Brazil, which may have been responsible for a secondary surface cyclogenesis over the southwestern Atlantic Ocean. The surface cyclone initiated at 0600 UTC 17 April 1999 in a cold air mass in the rear of a cold front after a primary cyclone developed over the same region. The analysis of the secondary cyclone revealed the presence of lowermost stratospheric air intrusion characterized by anomalous potential vorticity (PV), dry air, and high concentration of ozone in atmospheric column. The system developed on the eastern side of an upper level core of PV anomaly, which induced a cyclonic wind circulation at lower levels and favored the onset of the secondary cyclone. In midlevels (500 hPa), the cutoff low development contributed to reduce the propagation speed of the wave pattern. This feature seemed to (1) allow the low-level cold/dry air to heat/moisten associated with sensible and latent fluxes transferred from the ocean to the atmosphere, which intensified a baroclinic zone parallel to the coast, and (2) contribute to the long duration of the system. The present analysis indicates that this secondary cyclone development could be the result of the coupling between the PV anomaly in the upper levels and low-level air-sea interaction.

A faraway quasar in the direction of the highest energy Auger event

The highest energy cosmic ray event reported by the Auger Observatory has an energy of 148 EeV. It does not correlate with any nearby (z<0.024) object capable of originating such a high energy event. Intrigued by the fact that the highest energy event ever recorded (by the Fly`s Eye collaboration) points to a faraway quasar with very high radio luminosity and large Faraday rotation measurement, we have searched for a similar source for the Auger event. We find that the Auger highest energy event points to a quasar with similar characteristics to the one correlated to the Fly`s Eye event. We also find the same kind of correlation for one of the highest energy AGASA events. We conclude that so far these types of quasars are the best source candidates for both Auger and Fly`s Eye highest energy events. We discuss a few exotic candidates that could reach us from gigaparsec distances.

Absolute normalization for uncorrelated background with the event mixing technique

We present a method to determine the magnitude of the uncorrelated background distribution obtained with the event mixing technique, through the simultaneous observation of the projectile elastic scattering in different detectors, which correspond to random coincidences. The procedure is tested with alpha-d angular correlation data from the (6)Li + (59)Co reaction at E(lab) = 29.6 MeV. We also show that the method can be applied using the product of singles events, when singles measurements are available. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

The Cariris Velhos tectonic event in Northeast Brazil

The Borborema Province in northeastern South America is a typical Brasiliano-Pan-African branching system of Neoproterozoic orogens that forms part of the Western Gondwana assembly. The province is positioned between the Sao Luis-West Africa craton to the north and the Sao Francisco (Congo-Kasai) craton to the south. For this province the main characteristics are (a) its subdivision into five major tectonic domains, bounded mostly by long shear zones, as follows: Medio Coreau, Ceara Central, Rio Grande do Norte, Transversal, and Southern; (b) the alternation of supracrustal belts with reworked basement inliers (Archean nuclei + Paleoproterozoic belts); and (c) the diversity of granitic plutonism, from Neoproterozoic to Early Cambrian ages, that affect supracrustal rocks as well as basement inliers. Recently, orogenic rock assemblages of early Tonian (1000-920 Ma) orogenic evolution have been recognized, which are restricted to the Transversal and Southern domains of the Province. Within the Transversal Zone, the Alto Pajeu terrane locally includes some remnants of oceanic crust along with island arc and continental arc rock assemblages, but the dominant supracrustal rocks are mature and immature pelitic metasedimentary and metavolcaniclastic rocks. Contiguous and parallel to the Alto Pajeu terrane, the Riacho Gravata subterrane consists mainly of low-grade metamorphic successions of metarhythmites, some of which are clearly turbiditic in origin, metaconglomerates, and sporadic marbles, along with interbedded metarhyolitic and metadacitic volcanic or metavolcaniclastic rocks. Both terrane and subterrane are cut by syn-contractional intrusive sheets of dominantly peraluminous high-K calc-alkaline, granititic to granodioritic metaplutonic rocks. The geochemical patterns of both supracrustal and intrusive rocks show similarities with associations of mature continental arc volcano-sedimentary sequences, but some subordinate intra-plate characteristics are also found. In both the Alto Pajeu and Riacho Gravata terranes, TIMS and SHRIMP U-Pb isotopic data from zircons from both metavolcanic and metaplutonic rocks yield ages between 1.0 and 0.92 Ga, which define the time span for an event of orogenic character, the Cariris Velhos event. Less extensive occurrences of rocks of Cariris Velhos age are recognized mainly in the southernmost domains of the Province, as for example in the Polo Redondo-Maranco terrane, where arc-affinity migmatite-granitic and meta-volcano-sedimentary rocks show U-Pb ages (SHRIMP data) around 0.98-0.97 Ga. For all these domains, Sm-Nd data exhibit Tom model ages between 1.9 and 1.1 Ga with corresponding slightly negative to slightly positive epsilon(Nd)(t) values. These domains, along with the Borborema Province as a whole, were significantly affected by tectonic and magmatic events of the Brasiliano Cycle (0.7-0.5 Ga), so that it is possible that there are some other early Tonian rock assemblages which were completely masked and hidden by these later Brasiliano events. Cariris Velhos processes are younger than the majority of orogenic systems at the end of Mesoproterozoic Era and beginning of Neoproterozoic throughout the world, e.g. Irumide belt, Kibaride belt and Namaqua-Natal belt, and considerably younger than those of the youngest orogenic process (Ottawan) in the Grenvillian System. Therefore, they were probably not associated with the proposed assembly of Rodinia. We suggest, instead, that Cariris Velhos magmatism and tectonism could have been related to a continental margin magmatic arc, with possible back-arc associations, and that this margin may have been a short-lived (<100 m.y.) leading edge of the newly assembled Rodinia supercontinent. (C) 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Post-collisional lamprophyric event in Sierra Norte, Cordoba, Argentina: Mineralogical, geochemical and isotopic characteristics

Over 20 lamprophyre dykes, varying in width between a few centimeters and several meters, have been identified in central Sierra Norte - Eastern Pampean Ranges, Cordoba, Argentina. Their mineralogy and chemistry indicate that they are part of the calc-alkaline lamprophyres clan (CAL). They contain phenocrysts of magnesiohomblende +/- augite set in a groundmass of magnesiohornblende, calcic-plagioclase, alkali feldspar, and opaque minerals, which designate them as spessartite-type lamprophyres. Alteration products include chlorite, calcite and iron oxides after malfic phenocrysts, though some are partially replaced by actinolite. Feldspars are replaced by carbonate and clay minerals. The dykes are relatively primitive, and show restricted major element variation (SiO(2) 51.1-55.3 wt.%, Al(2)O(3) 12-16.6 wt.%, total alkalies 1.5-4.7 wt.%), high Mg# (55-77), high Cr contents (27-988 ppm) and moderate to high Ni contents (60-190 ppm). Lamprophyre LILE (e.g. Rb averages 110 ppm, Sr 211-387 ppm, Ba 203-452 ppm) are high relative to HFSE (e.g., Ta 0.2-1.6 ppm, Nb 4-11 ppm, Y 17-21 ppm), and are enriched in LREE (30-70 times chondrite). They are characterized by relatively high (208)Pb/(204)Pb (38.8-39.9), (207)Pb/(204)Pb(similar to 15.7), and (206)Pb/(204)Pb (18.7-20.1), combined with low (epsilon)epsilon(Nd) (-4.69 to -1.52) and a relative moderately high ((87)Sr/(86)Sr)(i) of 0.7055-0.7074. The Rb-Sr whole rock isochron indicates an Early Ordovician age of 485 +/- 25 Ma. The calculated T(DM) (1.7 Ga) suggests that these rocks appear to have originated from a reservoir that was created during a mantle metasomatism event related to the Pampean orogeny. The Sierra Norte lamprophyres show affinities with a subduction-related magma in an active continental margin. Their geochemical and isotopic features suggest a multicomponent source, composed of enriched mantle material variably contaminated by crustal components. The lamprophyric suite emplacement occurred at the dawning stage of the Pampean orogeny, in a regional post-collisional extensional setting developed in the Sierra Norte-Ambargasta batholith (SNAB) in Early Ordovician times. (C) 2008 Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Timing and structure of the 8.2 kyr BP event inferred from delta(18)O records of stalagmites from China, Oman, and Brazil

Oxygen isotope records of stalagmites from China and Oman reveal a weak summer monsoon event, with a double-plunging structure, that started 8.21 +/- 0.02 kyr B. P. An identical but antiphased pattern is also evident in two stalagmite records from eastern Brazil, indicating that the South American Summer Monsoon was intensified during the 8.2 kyr B. P. event. These records demonstrate that the event was of global extent and synchronous within dating errors of <50 years. In comparison with recent model simulations, it is plausible that the 8.2 kyr B. P. event can be tied in changes of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation triggered by a glacial lake draining event. This, in turn, affected North Atlantic climate and latitudinal position of the Intertropical Convergence Zone, resulting in the observed low-latitude monsoonal precipitation patterns.

Estimated lifetimes of road pavements in Sweden using time-to-event analysis

Maintenance planning of road pavement requires reliable estimates of roads’ lifetimes. In determining the lifetime of a road, this study combines maintenance activities and road condition measurements. The scope of the paper is to estimate lifetimes of road pavements in Sweden with time to event analysis. The model used includes effects of pavement type, road type, bearing capacity, road width, speed limit, stone size and climate zone, where the model is stratified according to traffic load. Among the nine analyzed pavement types, stone mastic had the longest expected lifetime, 32 percent longer than asphalt concrete. Among road types, ordinary roads with cable barriers had 30 percent shorter lifetime than ordinary roads. Increased speed lowered the lifetime, while increased stone size (up to 20 mm) and increased road width lengthened the lifetime. The results are of importance for life cycle cost analysis and road management.

Children's memory of recurring events: is the first event always the best remembered?

Three experiments were conducted to examine the effect of age (4-5 and 6-8 years) and retention interval on children's ability to remember separate occurrences of a repeated event that varied in terms of content (items, dialog, etc.) Experiment 1 explored children's ability to recall the first versus last occurrence of a series of six events, at either one week or six weeks delay. Experiments 2 and 3 explored children's ability to identify the position of items in terms of their order of presentation within the series across two retention intervals. Overall, the results revealed clear age differences in children's performance. In general, the 6- to 8-year+old children performed better on all tasks than the 4- to 5-year-old children. Further, the older children showed relatively good memory of the first and last items compared to the middle items, although the last items were more likely to be forgotten or misplaced in the sequencing tasks over time that the first items. For the younger children, the patterns of results were sometimes but not always consistent with that of the older children The relevance and generalisability of these findings to the legal setting are discussed as well as directions for future research.

Improving children's recall of an occurrence of a repeated event: is it a matter of helping them to generate options?

Three experiments were conducted to explore whether children's recall of an occurrence of a repeated event could be improved by encouraging them to consider various details that occurred across a series of events prior to making a judgement about which details were included in the target (to-be-recalled) occurrence. Experiment 1 explored whether children's recall of the target occurrence was better after the interviewer presented all the items from the series prior to the child identifying the final item. Experiment 2 explored whether having the children generate all the items facilitated their subsequent recall of the target occurrence. Finally, Experiment 3 directly compared the effectiveness of the above 2 procedures. Regardless of the children's age, the retention interval, or the type of item, children's capacity to identify which details were included in a target occurrence was enhanced when they were initially provided with all the possible details from the series of events. However, without relying on the interviewer to generate the options, the benefit of the technique was directly contingent on the children's ability to generate content details; this was a distinct source of difficulty for the children. Indeed, having children generate options had no beneficial effect on decisions about the temporal position of items unless performance was made conditional on the children's ability to remember the relevant details in the first place. The implications of the findings for the legal setting and for future research are discussed.

The effect of contextual cues on children`s ability to remember an occurence of a repeated event

Purpose. This study examined the usefulness of contextual cues in enhancing the accuracy of children's narrative accounts of an occurrence of a repeated event.

Method. Children aged 6 to 7 years took part in the same staged event four times whereby 16 target details varied in each occurrence (e.g. the colour of a cloak varied each time). Three days later, the children's free recall of the final occurrence was elicited. This occurrence was identified in one of two ways. Either it was identified via the temporal term 'last', or else the term 'last' was combined with a feature related to the environmental context or setting that was unique to the occurrence (i.e., the interviewer referred to a new object that was worn throughout the occurrence or a new person who carried out the event). For each condition, performance was compared to that of children who experienced the event only once.

Results. Children's memory of details specific to the target occurrence was better after the single than the repeated event. However for both event types, children who were given the contextual and temporal cue performed better than those who were given the temporal cue only. The benefit of using a contextual cue did not result in an increase in errors.

Conclusion. Contextual cues (generated by an interviewer) can facilitate children's recall of an occurrence of an event. However, further research needs to determine whether this finding would generalize to a more practical situation where the child (rather than the interviewer) generates the cues.

Event valence and unrealistic optimism

The effect of event valence on unrealistic optimism was studied. 94 Deakin University students rated the comparative likelihood that they would experience either a controllable or an uncontrollable health-related event. Valence was manipulated to be positive (outcome was desirable) or negative (outcome was undesirable) by varying the way a given event was framed. Particiapants either were told the conditions which promote the event and rated the comparative likelihood they would experience it or were told the conditions which prevent the event and rated the comparative likelihood they would avoid it. For both the controllable and the uncontrollable events, unrealistic optimism was greater for negative than positive valence. It is suggested that a combination of the 'motivational account' of unrealistic optimism and prospect theory provides a good explanation of the results.