High HIV incidence and prevalence among young women in rural South Africa: Developing a cohort for intervention trials

Objective: To measure prevalence and model incidence of HIV infection. Setting: 2013 consecutive pregnant women attending public sector antenatal clinics in 1997 in Hlabisa health district, South Africa. Historical seroprevalence data, 1992-1995. Methods: Serum remaining from syphilis testing was tested anonymously for antibodies to HIV to determine seroprevalence. Two models, allowing for differential mortality between HIV-positive and HIV-negative people, were used. The first used serial seroprevalence data to estimate trends in annual incidence. The second, a maximum likelihood model, took account of changing force of infection and age-dependent risk of infection, to estimate age-specific HIV incidence in 1997. Multiple logistic regression provided adjusted odds ratios (OR) for risk factors for prevalent HIV infection. Results: Estimated annual HIV incidence increased from 4% in 1992/1993 to 10% in 1996/1997. In 1997, highest age-specific incidence was 16% among women aged between 20 and 24 years. in 1997, overall prevalence was 26% (95% confidence interval [CI], 24%-28%) and at 34% was highest among women aged between 20 and 24 years. Young age (<30 years; odds ratio [OR], 2.1; p = .001), unmarried status (OR 2.2; p = .001) and living in less remote parts of the district (OR 1.5; p = .002) were associated with HIV prevalence in univariate analysis. Associations were less strong in multivariate analysis. Partner's migration status was not associated with HIV infection. Substantial heterogeneity of HIV prevalence by clinic was observed (range 17%-31%; test for trend, p = .001). Conclusions: This community is experiencing an explosive HIV epidemic. Young, single women in the more developed parts of the district would form an appropriate cohort to test, and benefit from, interventions such as vaginal microbicides and HIV vaccines.

An unbridgeable gap? Comparing the HIV/AIDS epidemics in Australia and sub-Saharan Africa

OBJECTIVE: To compare the HIV/AIDS epidemics in Australia and sub-Saharan Africa, to outline reasons for differences, and to consider implications for the Asia and Pacific region. METHODS: Comparison of key indicators of the epidemic in Australia, and Africa viewed largely through the experience of the Hlabisa health district, South Africa. RESULTS: To the end of 1997, for all Australia, the estimated cumulative number of HIV infections was approximately 19,000, whereas in Hlabisa 31,000 infections are estimated to have occurred. Compared with the low and declining incidence of HIV in Australia (<1%), estimated incidence in Hlabisa rose to 10% in 1997. In all, 94% of Australian infections have been amongst men; in Hlabisa equal numbers of males and females are infected. Consequently, whereas 3000 children were perinatally exposed to HIV in Hlabisa in 1998 alone, 160 Australian children have been exposed this way. In Australia, HIV-related disease is characterised by opportunistic infection whereas in Hlabisa tuberculosis and wasting dominate. Surveys among gay men in Sydney and Melbourne indicate >80% of HIV infected people receive antiretroviral therapy whereas in Hlabisa these drugs are not available. IMPLICATIONS: It seems possible that Asia and the Pacific will experience a similar HIV/AIDS epidemic to that in Africa. Levels of HIV are already high in parts of Asia, and social conditions in parts of the region might be considered ripe for the spread of HIV. As Australia strengthens economic and political ties within the region, so should more be done to help Pacific and Asian neighbours to prevent and respond to the HIV epidemic.

Historical overfishing and the recent collapse of coastal ecosystems

Ecological extinction caused by overfishing precedes all other pervasive human disturbance to coastal ecosystems, including pollution, degradation of water quality, and anthropogenic climate change. Historical abundances of large consumer species were fantastically large in comparison with recent observations. Paleoecological, archaeological, and historical data show that time lags of decades to centuries occurred between the onset of overfishing and consequent changes in ecological communities, because unfished species of similar trophic level assumed the ecological roles of overfished species until they too were overfished or died of epidemic diseases related to overcrowding. Retrospective data not only help to clarify underlying causes and rates of ecological change, but they also demonstrate achievable goals for restoration and management of coastal ecosystems that could not even be contemplated based on the limited perspective of recent observations alone.

Humans, dogs and parasitic zoonoses - Unravelling the relationships in a remote endemic community in Northeast India using molecular tools

Canine parasitic zoonoses pose a continuing public health problem, especially in developing countries and communities that are socioeconomically disadvantaged. Our study combined the use of conventional and molecular epidemic, logical tools to determine the role of dogs in transmission of gastrointestinal (GI) parasites such as hookworms, Giardia and Ascaris in a parasite endemic teagrowing community in northeast India. A highly sensitive and specific molecular tool was developed to detect and differentiate the zoonotic species of canine hookworm eggs directly from faeces. This allowed epidemiological screening of canine hookworm species in this community to be conducted with ease and accuracy. The zoonotic potential of canine Giardia was also investigated by characterising Giardia duodenalis recovered from humans and dogs living in the same locality and households at three different loci. Phylogenetic and epidemiological analysis provided compelling evidence to support the zoonotic transmission of canine Giardia. Molecular tools were also used to identify the species of Ascaris egg present in over 30% of dog faecal samples. The results demonstrated the role of dogs as a significant disseminator and environmental contaminator of Ascaris lumbricoides in communities where promiscuous defecation practices exist. Our study demonstrated the usefulness of combining conventional and molecular parasitological and epidemiological tools to help solve unresolved relationships with regards to parasitic zoonoses.

Computational tools for the study of allergens

Allergy is a major cause of morbidity worldwide. The number of characterized allergens and related information is increasing rapidly creating demands for advanced information storage, retrieval and analysis. Bioinformatics provides useful tools for analysing allergens and these are complementary to traditional laboratory techniques for the study of allergens. Specific applications include structural analysis of allergens, identification of B- and T-cell epitopes, assessment of allergenicity and cross-reactivity, and genome analysis. In this paper, the most important bioinformatic tools and methods with relevance to the study of allergy have been reviewed.

Predictors of Lethality in Severe Leptospirosis in Urban Brazil

To ascertain prognostic factors associated with fatal outcomes in severe leptospirosis, a retrospective case-control study was done using population-based surveillance data. Centralized death certificate reporting of leptospirosis mortality was combined with details of patients` hospitalizations, which were obtained from hospitals representing all sectors of Sao Paulo city. Among identified leptospirosis cases, 89 lethal cases and 281 survivor cases were analyzed. Predictors of death included age > 40 years, development of oliguria, platelet count < 70,000/mu L, creatinine > 3 mg/dL. and pulmonary involvement. The latter was the strongest risk Factor with all estimated odds ratio of 6.0 (95% confidence interval: 3.0-12.0). Serologic findings with highest titer against Leptospira interrogans serovar Copenhageni did not show significant differences between survivors and non-survivors. Lung involvement was an important predictor of death in leptospirosis in Sao Paulo, of relevance in leptospirosis-endemic regions where this complication is common.

Report of the equine herpesvirus-1 Havermeyer Workshop, San Gimignano, Tuscany, June 2004

Amongst the infectious diseases that threaten equine health, herpesviral infections remain a world wide cause of serious morbidity and mortality. Equine herpesvirus-1 infection is the most important pathogen, causing an array of disorders including epidemic respiratory disease abortion, neonatal foal death, myeloencephalopathy and chorioretinopathy. Despite intense scientific investigation, extensive use of vaccination, and established codes of practice for control of disease outbreaks, infection and disease remain common. While equine herpesvirus-1 infection remains a daunting challenge for immunoprophylaxis, many critical advances in equine immunology have resulted in studies of this virus, particularly related to MHC-restricted cytotoxicity in the horse. A workshop was convened in San Gimignano, Tuscany, Italy in June 2004, to bring together clinical and basic researchers in the field of equine herpesvirus-1 study to discuss the latest advances and future prospects for improving our under-standing of these diseases, and equine immunity to herpesviral infection. This report highlights the new information that was the focus of this workshop, and is intended to summarize this material and identify the critical questions in the field. (c) 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Asthma mortality in Australia 1920-94: Age, period, and cohort effects

Study objective-To investigate asthma mortality during 1920-94 in Australia in order to assess the relative role of period and birth cohort effects. Design-Asthma mortality (both sexes) was age standardised and examined for changes over time. The data were also examined for age, period, and cohort (APC) effects using Poisson regression modelling. Setting-National Australian mortality data. Participants-Population (both sexes) aged 15-34 years, 1920-94. Main results-Age adjusted period rates indicate an increase in asthma mortality during the 1950s, and increases and subsequent falls (epidemics) during the mid 1960s and late 1980s. APC modelling suggested an increasing cohort effect (adjusted for both age and period) from the birth cohort 1950-54 onwards. Period effects (adjusted for age and cohort) are characterised by an increase in the 1950s (possibly due to changes in diagnostic labelling), minimal or no increases in the mid 1960s and late 1980s (where period peaks had been noted when data were adjusted for age only), and declines in mortality risk subsequent to the periods where age-period analysis had noted increases. Thus, in Australia, some of the mid 1960s epidemic in asthma deaths, and all of the late 1980s mortality increase, seem to be attributable to cohort effects. Conclusions-The increase in asthma mortality cohort effect is consistent with empirical evidence of recent increases in prevalence (and presumably incidence) of asthma in Australia, and suggests the need for more research into the underlying environmental aetiology of this condition.

Dynamics of Hepatitis D (delta) virus genotype 3 in the Amazon region of South America

Hepatitis delta virus (HDV) is widely distributed and associated with fulminant hepatitis epidemics in areas with high prevalence of HBV. Several studies performed in the 1980s showed data on HDV infection in South America, but there are no studies on the viral dynamics of this virus. The aim of this study was to conduct an evolutionary analysis of hepatitis delta genotype 3 (HDV/3) prevalent in South America: estimate its nucleotide substitution rate, determine the time of most recent ancestor (TMRCA) and characterize the epidemic history and evolutionary dynamics. Furthermore, we characterized the presence of HBV/HDV infection in seven samples collected from patients who died due to fulminant hepatitis from Amazon region in Colombia and included them in the evolutionary analysis. This is the first study reporting HBV and HDV sequences from the Amazon region of Colombia. Of the seven Colombian patients, five were positive for HBV-DNA and HDV-RNA. Of them, two samples were successfully sequenced for HBV (subgenotypes F3 and Fib) and the five samples HDV positive were classified as HDV/3. By using all HDV/3 available reference sequences with sampling dates (n = 36), we estimated the HDV/3 substitution rate in 1.07 x 10(-3) substitutions per site per year (s/s/y), which resulted in a time to the most recent common ancestor (TMRCA) of 85 years. Also, it was determined that HDV/3 spread exponentially from early 1950s to the 1970s in South America. This work discusses for the first time the viral dynamics for the HDV/3 circulating in South America. We suggest that the measures implemented to control HBV transmission resulted in the control of HDV/3 spreading in South America, especially after the important raise in this infection associated with a huge mortality during the 1950s up to the 1970s. The differences found among HDV/3 and the other HDV genotypes concerning its diversity raises the hypothesis of a different origin and/or a different transmission route. (C) 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Antiretroviral Drug Resistance in a Respondent-Driven Sample of HIV-Infected Men Who Have Sex With Men in Brazil

Background: There are few studies on HIV subtypes and primary and secondary antiretroviral drug resistance (ADR) in community-recruited samples in Brazil. We analyzed HIV clade diversity and prevalence of mutations associated with ADR in men who have sex with men in all five regions of Brazil. Methods: Using respondent-driven sampling, we recruited 3515 men who have sex with men in nine cities: 299 (9.5%) were HIV-positive; 143 subjects had adequate genotyping and epidemiologic data. Forty-four (30.8%) subjects were antiretroviral therapy-experienced (AE) and 99 (69.2%) antiretroviral therapy-naive (AN). We sequenced the reverse transcriptase and protease regions of the virus and analyzed them for drug resistant mutations using World Health Organization guidelines. Results: The most common subtypes were B (81.8%), C (7.7%), and recombinant forms (6.9%). The overall prevalence of primary ADR resistance was 21.4% (i.e. among the AN) and secondary ADR was 35.8% (i.e. among the AE). The prevalence of resistance to protease inhibitors was 3.9% (AN) and 4.4% (AE); to nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitors 15.0% (AN) and 31.0% (AE) and to nonnucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitors 5.5% (AN) and 13.2% (AE). The most common resistance mutation for nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitors was 184V (17 cases) and for nonnucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitors 103N (16 cases). Conclusions: Our data suggest a high level of both primary and secondary ADR in men who have sex with men in Brazil. Additional studies are needed to identify the correlates and causes of antiretroviral therapy resistance to limit the development of resistance among those in care and the transmission of resistant strains in the wider epidemic.

Involvement of the central nervous system in patients with dengue virus infection

The findings of a neurological evaluation in 85 patients with confirmed, acute, dengue virus infection are described. Signs of central nervous system involvement were present in IS patients (21.2%). The most frequent neurological symptom was mental confusion. The frequency of neurological involvement did not differ between patients with primary and secondary dengue infection, and the prevalence of central nervous system involvement in dengue fever and dengue hemorrhagic fever also did not differ significantly. The presence of CNS involvement did not influence the prognosis of dengue infection. Dengue viral CSF RNA was found in 7 of 13 patients submitted to a spinal tap, the CSF viral load being less than 1000 copies/ml. PCR was negative in serum samples obtained from three patients on the same day as the CSF samples, suggesting that the dengue virus actively enters the CNS and that the presence of the virus in the CNS does not result from passive crossing of the blood-brain barrier. (C) 2007 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Risk Estimates of Dengue in Travelers to Dengue Endemic Areas Using Mathematical Models

Dengue has emerged as a frequent problem in international travelers. The risk depends on destination, duration, and season of travel. However, data to quantify the true risk for travelers to acquire dengue are lacking. We used mathematical models to estimate the risk of nonimmune persons to acquire dengue when traveling to Singapore. From the force of infection, we calculated the risk of dengue dependent on duration of stay and season of arrival. Our data highlight that the risk for nonimmune travelers to acquire dengue in Singapore is substantial but varies greatly with seasons and epidemic cycles. For instance, for a traveler who stays in Singapore for 1 week during the high dengue season in 2005, the risk of acquiring dengue was 0.17%, but it was only 0.00423% during the low season in a nonepidemic year such as 2002. Risk estimates based on mathematical modeling will help the travel medicine provider give better evidence-based advice for travelers to dengue endemic countries.

AIDS along Brazil`s borders, 1990-2003

Objective. To study the AIDS epidemic in Brazil`s border areas, from the spatial and temporal perspective. Methods. This was an ecological study in which the cases of AIDS reported to the Ministry of Health of Brazil from 1990-2003 were grouped according to ""hunger areas"" as defined by Josue de Castro in the 1940s and according to 19 cultural subregions. Spatial assessment was based on incidence rates for border municipalities; temporal assessment considered the absolute number of cases occurring quarterly from 1990-2003 in each of the hunger areas studied (Extreme South, Midwest, and Amazon). Results. During the study period, 7 973 cases of AIDS were reported from the Brazilian border areas: 648 in the Amazon area, 1 579 in the Midwest, and 5 746 in the Extreme South (populations of 668 098, 895 489, and 2 769 361, respectively). The subregions with the highest AIDS incidence rates in each of the three border areas were those near triple-borders, between more than two Latin American countries. Sexual transmission was predominant, with heterosexual transmission being the most frequent, followed by transmission by male homosexuality. These two categories accounted for 87.2% of the cases reported. The estimates of the trend parameter in the temporal analysis were 0.53 (P < 0.0001), 0.83 (P < 0.0001), and 3.47 (P < 0.0001), respectively, for the Amazon, Midwest, and Extreme South areas. Conclusion. The improvement of health care services along Brazil`s borders may be a strategy for territorial integration and for dealing with the AIDS epidemic, as long as social, economic, and cultural differences are taken into account.