WATER RESOURCES SITUATION AT PIRACICABA, CAPIVARI AND JUNDIAI WATERSHEDS USING A DYNAMIC SYSTEMS MODEL

Using a dynamic systems model specifically developed for Piracicaba, Capivari and Jundia River Water Basins (BH-PCJ) as a tool to help to analyze water resources management alternatives for policy makers and decision takers, five simulations for 50 years timeframe were performed. The model estimates water supply and demand, as well as wastewater generation from the consumers at BH-PCJ. A run was performed using mean precipitation value constant, and keeping the actual water supply and demand rates, the business as usual scenario. Under these considerations, it is expected an increment of about similar to 76% on water demand, that similar to 39% of available water volume will come from wastewater reuse, and that waste load increases to similar to 91%. Falkenmark Index will change from 1,403 m(3) person(-1) year(-1) in 2004, to 734 m(3) P(-1) year(-1) by 2054, and the Sustainability Index from 0.44 to 0.20. Another four simulations were performed by affecting the annual precipitation by 90 and 110%; considering an ecological flow equal to 30% of the mean daily flow; and keeping the same rates for all other factors except for ecological flow and household water consumption. All of them showed a tendency to a water crisis in the near future at BH-PCJ.

Definition of priority areas for forest conservation through the ordered weighted averaging method

The general objective of this study was to evaluate the ordered weighted averaging (OWA) method, integrated to a geographic information systems (GIS), in the definition of priority areas for forest conservation in a Brazilian river basin, aiming at to increase the regional biodiversity. We demonstrated how one could obtain a range of alternatives by applying OWA, including the one obtained by the weighted linear combination method and, also the use of the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) to structure the decision problem and to assign the importance to each criterion. The criteria considered important to this study were: proximity to forest patches; proximity among forest patches with larger core area; proximity to surface water; distance from roads: distance from urban areas; and vulnerability to erosion. OWA requires two sets of criteria weights: the weights of relative criterion importance and the order weights. Thus, Participatory Technique was used to define the criteria set and the criterion importance (based in AHP). In order to obtain the second set of weights we considered the influence of each criterion, as well as the importance of each one, on this decision-making process. The sensitivity analysis indicated coherence among the criterion importance weights, the order weights, and the solution. According to this analysis, only the proximity to surface water criterion is not important to identify priority areas for forest conservation. Finally, we can highlight that the OWA method is flexible, easy to be implemented and, mainly, it facilitates a better understanding of the alternative land-use suitability patterns. (C) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Parametric and nonparametric statistical modelling of crop yield: implications for pricing crop insurance contracts

This article considers alternative methods to calculate the fair premium rate of crop insurance contracts based on county yields. The premium rate was calculated using parametric and nonparametric approaches to estimate the conditional agricultural yield density. These methods were applied to a data set of county yield provided by the Statistical and Geography Brazilian Institute (IBGE), for the period of 1990 through 2002, for soybean, corn and wheat, in the State of Paran. In this article, we propose methodological alternatives to pricing crop insurance contracts resulting in more accurate premium rates in a situation of limited data.

Foundation and Perspectives of the Use of Plant Extracts as Performance Enhancers in Broilers

Feed is responsible for about 70% of broilers production costs, leading to an increasing number of studies on alternative dietary products that benefit bird performance and lower production costs. Since the 1950s, antimicrobial additives are the most frequently used performance enhancers in animal production and their positive results are observed even in high-challenge conditions. Since the 1990s, due to the ban of the use of some antibiotics as growth promoters and the growing trend of the public to consume natural products, plant extracts have been researched as alternatives to antibiotic growth promoters. The first study that evaluated the antibacterial activities of plant extracts was carried out in 1881; however, they started to be used as flavor enhancers only during the next decades. With the emergence of antibiotics in the 1950s, the use of plant extracts as antimicrobial agents almost disappeared. There are several studies in literature assessing the use of plant extracts, individually or in combination, as antimicrobials, antioxidants, or digestibility enhancers in animal feeds. Research results on the factors affecting their action, such as plant variety, harvest time, processing, extraction, as well as the technology employed to manufacture the commercial product and dietary inclusion levels show controversial results, warranting the need of further research and standardization for the effective use of plant extracts as performance enhancers, when added to animal feeds. This article aims at presenting plant extracts as alternatives to antibiotics, explaining their main modes of action as performance enhancers in broiler production.

EGG ALBUMIN AND GUAR GUM INFLUENCE ON FOAM THIXOTROPY

Food foams may be defined as products containing a gaseous phase stabilized in a matrix containing water and proteins. The rheology of a foam can be altered by how the air bubbles inside are organized, its size and shape, allowing a product that was initially fluid to be molded, like marshmallow. Rheology makes possible to understand how these properties are affected using dynamic oscillatory measurements to evaluate the behavior through G` and G `, and rotational to characterize the product through stress, and viscosity curves under controlled shear stress. These two methodologies combined are useful to analyze thixotropy. Nine formulations containing albumin and gelatin, and five others containing guar gum were evaluated by oscillatory rheology focusing thixotropy determination. Replacing gelatin by guar gum elasticity and thixotropy were increased, improving film stability around the air bubbles. It is possible to say that gelatin can be replaced by guar gum at concentrations of 0.4%, creating a product with a better ability of structure recovery. PRACTICAL APPLICATION This study indicated an important role of thixotropic analysis choice to understand the behavior of structure of products like foam. It was tested with three alternatives to get information about thixotropy of the products. It is very important for those who work with rheological analysis and products formulation.

Computer-aided drug design and ADMET predictions for identification and evaluation of novel potential farnesyltransferase inhibitors in cancer therapy

We have used various computational methodologies including molecular dynamics, density functional theory, virtual screening, ADMET predictions and molecular interaction field studies to design and analyze four novel potential inhibitors of farnesyltransferase (FTase). Evaluation of two proposals regarding their drug potential as well as lead compounds have indicated them as novel promising FTase inhibitors, with theoretically interesting pharmacotherapeutic profiles, when Compared to the very active and most cited FTase inhibitors that have activity data reported, which are launched drugs or compounds in clinical tests. One of our two proposals appears to be a more promising drug candidate and FTase inhibitor, but both derivative molecules indicate potentially very good pharmacotherapeutic profiles in comparison with Tipifarnib and Lonafarnib, two reference pharmaceuticals. Two other proposals have been selected with virtual screening approaches and investigated by LIS, which suggest novel and alternatives scaffolds to design future potential FTase inhibitors. Such compounds can be explored as promising molecules to initiate a research protocol in order to discover novel anticancer drug candidates targeting farnesyltransferase, in the fight against cancer. (C) 2009 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Evolutionary distinctiveness and status of the endangered Lake Eacham rainbowfish (Melanotaenia eachamensis)

The Lake Eacham rainbowfish (Melanotaenia eachamensis) was declared extinct in the wild in the late 1980s after it disappeared from its only known locality, an isolated crater lake in northeast Queensland. Doubts have been raised about whether this taxon is distinct from surrounding populations of the eastern rainbowfish (Melanotaenia splendida splendida). We examined the evolutionary distinctiveness of M. eachamensis, obtained from captive stocks, relative to M. s. splendida through analysis of variation in mtDNA sequences, nuclear microsatellites, and morphometric characters Captive M. eachamensis had mtDNAs that were highly divergent from those in most populations of M. s. splendida. A broader geographic survey using RFLPs revealed some populations initially identified as M. s. splendida, that carried eachamensis mtDNA, whereas some others had mixtures of eachamensis and splendida mtDNA. The presence of eachamensis-like mtDNA in these populations could in principle be due to (1) sorting of ancestral polymorphisms, (2) introgression of M. eachamensis mtDNA into M. s. splendida, or (3) incorrect species boundaries, such that some populations currently assigned to M. s. splendida are M. eachamensis or are mixtures of the two species. These alternatives hypotheses were evaluated through comparisons of four nuclear microsatellite loci and morphometrics and meristics. In analyses of both data sets, populations of M. s. splendida with eachamensis mtDNA were more similar to captive M. eachamensis than to M. s. splendida with splendida mtDNA, supporting hypothesis 3. These results are significant for the management of M. eachamensis in several respects. First the combined molecular and morphological evidence indicates that M. eachamensis is a distinct species and a discrete evolutionarily significant unit worthy of conservation effort. Second it appears that the species boundary between M. eachamensis and M. s. splendida has been misdiagnosed such that there are extant populations on the Atherton Tableland as well as areas where both forms coexist. Accordingly we suggest that M. eachamensis be listed as vulnerable, rather than critical (or extinct in the wild). Third, the discovery of extant but genetically divergent populations of M. eachamensis on the Atherton Tableland broadens the options for future reintroductions to Lake Eacham.

Economic incentives for farmers in the Philippine uplands to adopt hedgerow intercropping

Land degradation in the Philippine uplands is severe and widespread. Most upland areas are steep, and intense rainfall on soils disturbed by intensive agriculture can produce high rates of soil loss. This has serious implications for the economic welfare of a growing upland population with few feasible livelihood alternatives. Hedgerow intercropping can greatly reduce soil loss from annual cropping systems and has been considered an appropriate technology for soil conservation research and extension in the Philippine uplands. However; adoption of hedgerow intercropping has been sporadic and transient, rarely continuing once external support has been withdrawn. The objective of this paper is to investigate the economic incentives for farmers in the Philippine uplands to adopt hedgerow intercropping relative to traditional open-field maize farming. Cost-benefit analysis is used to compare the economic viability of hedgerow intercropping, as it has been promoted to upland farmers, with the viability of traditional methods of open-field farming. The APSIM and SCUAF models were used to predict the effect of soil erosion on maize yields from open-field farming and hedgerow intercropping. The results indicate that there have been strong economic incentives for farmers with limited planning horizons to reject hedgerow intercropping because the benefits of sustained yields are not realized rapidly enough to compensate for high establishment costs. Alternative forms of hedgerow intercropping such as natural vegetation and grass strips reduce establishment and maintenance costs and are therefore more economically attractive to farmers than hedgerow intercropping with shrub legumes. The long-term economic viability of hedgerow intercropping depends on the economic setting and the potential for hedgerow intercropping to sustain maize production relative to traditional open-field farming. (C) 1998 Academic Press.

Resistance to temperature extremes between and within life cycle stages in Drosophila serrata, D-birchii and their hybrids: intraspecific and interspecific comparisons

Intraspecific Drosophila studies suggest that resistance to heal and cold stresses are largely independent and that correlations across life cycle stages are low whereas comparisons of Drosophila species indicate correlations between heat and cold resistance as well as between resistance levels in different life cycle stages. These inconsistent results may reflect differences in associations among traits at the interspecific and intraspecific levels or interspecific correlations arising because of correlated selection pressures. These alternatives were tested using Drosophila serrata, D. birchii and hybrids derived from these species. Variation among hybrid lines and families was used to test associations at the interspecific level while intraspecific variation was examined using isofemale lines of D. serrata. There was a significant association between adult heat knockdown time at 38 degreesC and adult cold resistance in one set of hybrid lines. An association between female knockdown resistance to heat and larval heat resistance was also evident in one set of hybrids. Resistance to heat anti cold at the larval stage were not correlated at either the intraspecific or interspecific levels. At the intraspecific level, lan al heat resistance and two measures of adult heat resistance were uncorrelated. Moreover, adult and larval cold resistance measures were not correlated at either the intraspecific or interspecific levels. These results suggest that there are no associations between resistance to heat and cold extremes and that extreme temperature resistance is largely independent across life cycle stages at both the intraspecific and interspecific levels. Species associations may therefore arise from correlated selection pressures rather than trait correlations. (C) 2000 The Linnean Society of London.

A method for setting the size of plant conservation target areas

Realistic time frames in which management decisions are made often preclude the completion of the detailed analyses necessary for conservation planning. Under these circumstances, efficient alternatives may assist in approximating the results of more thorough studies that require extensive resources and time. We outline a set of concepts and formulas that may be used in lieu of detailed population viability analyses and habitat modeling exercises to estimate the protected areas required to provide desirable conservation outcomes for a suite of threatened plant species. We used expert judgment of parameters and assessment of a population size that results in a specified quasiextinction risk based on simple dynamic models The area required to support a population of this size is adjusted to take into account deterministic and stochastic human influences, including small-scale disturbance deterministic trends such as habitat loss, and changes in population density through processes such as predation and competition. We set targets for different disturbance regimes and geographic regions. We applied our methods to Banksia cuneata, Boronia keysii, and Parsonsia dorrigoensis, resulting in target areas for conservation of 1102, 733, and 1084 ha, respectively. These results provide guidance on target areas and priorities for conservation strategies.

Mathematical models in percutaneous absorption

A number of mathematical models have been used to describe percutaneous absorption kinetics. In general, most of these models have used either diffusion-based or compartmental equations. The object of any mathematical model is to a) be able to represent the processes associated with absorption accurately, b) be able to describe/summarize experimental data with parametric equations or moments, and c) predict kinetics under varying conditions. However, in describing the processes involved, some developed models often suffer from being of too complex a form to be practically useful. In this chapter, we attempt to approach the issue of mathematical modeling in percutaneous absorption from four perspectives. These are to a) describe simple practical models, b) provide an overview of the more complex models, c) summarize some of the more important/useful models used to date, and d) examine sonic practical applications of the models. The range of processes involved in percutaneous absorption and considered in developing the mathematical models in this chapter is shown in Fig. 1. We initially address in vitro skin diffusion models and consider a) constant donor concentration and receptor conditions, b) the corresponding flux, donor, skin, and receptor amount-time profiles for solutions, and c) amount- and flux-time profiles when the donor phase is removed. More complex issues, such as finite-volume donor phase, finite-volume receptor phase, the presence of an efflux. rate constant at the membrane-receptor interphase, and two-layer diffusion, are then considered. We then look at specific models and issues concerned with a) release from topical products, b) use of compartmental models as alternatives to diffusion models, c) concentration-dependent absorption, d) modeling of skin metabolism, e) role of solute-skin-vehicle interactions, f) effects of vehicle loss, a) shunt transport, and h) in vivo diffusion, compartmental, physiological, and deconvolution models. We conclude by examining topics such as a) deep tissue penetration, b) pharmacodynamics, c) iontophoresis, d) sonophoresis, and e) pitfalls in modeling.

Variable Demand and Profitability in Service Companies: a case study in the information technology sector

Managing a variable demand scenario is particularly challenging on services organizations because services companies usually have a major part of fixed costs. The article studies how a services organization manages its demand variability and its relation with the organization`s profitability. Moreover, the study searched for alternatives used to reduce the demand variability`s impact on the profitability of the company. The research was based on a case study with a Brazilian services provider on information technology business. The study suggests that alternatives like using outsourced employees to cover demand peaks may bring benefits only on short term, reducing the profitability of the company on long term: Some options are revealed, like the internationalization of employees and the investment on developing its own workforce.

Comparing predictions of extinction risk using models and subjective judgement

Models of population dynamics are commonly used to predict risks in ecology, particularly risks of population decline. There is often considerable uncertainty associated with these predictions. However, alternatives to predictions based on population models have not been assessed. We used simulation models of hypothetical species to generate the kinds of data that might typically be available to ecologists and then invited other researchers to predict risks of population declines using these data. The accuracy of the predictions was assessed by comparison with the forecasts of the original model. The researchers used either population models or subjective judgement to make their predictions. Predictions made using models were only slightly more accurate than subjective judgements of risk. However, predictions using models tended to be unbiased, while subjective judgements were biased towards over-estimation. Psychology literature suggests that the bias of subjective judgements is likely to vary somewhat unpredictably among people, depending on their stake in the outcome. This will make subjective predictions more uncertain and less transparent than those based on models. (C) 2004 Elsevier SAS. All rights reserved.

Governing society today: Editors' introduction

The notion of governing society has for a long time seemed self-evident. Society was conceived as a totality coincident with a certain space, a territory, and occupied by a population. Governing was undertaken by a unified agency that acted upon the society of which it was also a specialized part--the government, or, more broadly, "the state." The notion of "governing society" thus referred unproblematically to the binary of state and society. The articles in this special issue of Alternatives, however, each in its own and different way, address the question of "governing society today."

Chronic Recurrent Multifocal Osteomyelitis Primarily Affecting the Spine Treated With Anti-TNF Therapy

Study Design. A case report describing chronic recurrent multifocal osteomyelitis (CRMO) with initial presentation limited to spine, successfully treated by anti-TNF-alpha therapy after failure of conventional treatment methods. Objective. To describe an unusual manifestation and treatment of a rare disease. Summary of Background Data. CRMO is a rare inflammatory bone disease that should be differentiated from bacterial osteomyelitis. Rarely, it can affect the spine and in this case the most important differential diagnosis is infectious spondylodiscitis. The disease has an unpredictable course with exacerbations and spontaneous remissions. Although the majority of cases remit spontaneously (or after the use of nonsteroidal anti-inflammatory drugs [NSAIDs]), some progressive and resistant cases have been reported. Methods. We describe a case of CRMO with an unusual clinical presentation emphasizing the importance of this finding as a differential diagnosis of spondylodiscitis and comment on the available treatment alternatives. Results. A 17-year-old man presented with debilitating dorsal spine pain. Magnetic resonance imaging of the spine revealed bone lesions at multiple vertebral levels. After failure of antibiotic treatment, the diagnosis of CRMO was suggested. An initial good response to NSAIDs was followed by a recurrent course and involvement of peripheral joints besides the use of corticosteroids and other drugs. The introduction of infliximab was followed by complete remission of the disease. Conclusion. Our observation highlights the need of awareness for the differential diagnosis in suspected cases of osteomyelitis not responding to antibiotics. Anti-TNF-alpha agents should be considered in CRMO refractory cases.