Exploração de séries temporais em processos de previsão de vendas

Dissertação de mestrado em Engenharia de Sistemas

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Dissertação de mestrado em Comunicação, Arte e Cultura

Mostrar a ciência: potenciar a divulgação de investigação académica na Internet através dos audiovisuais

Dissertação de mestrado em Ciências da Comunicação (área de especialização em Audiovisual e Multimédia)

Marfan's syndrome: early and severe form in siblings

Marfan's syndrome is an inherited disorder of the connective tissue. Cardiologic manifestations, especially aortic dilation, are important causes of morbidity and mortality in the clinical course of the disease in adults and teenagers. In children, the presence of aortic aneurysm and its dissection or rupture is rare, occurring in patients with genetic mutation of the fibrillin gene but not in those who have the familial form of the disease. We describe here 2 patients, from the same family (siblings), diagnosed with gigantic aortic aneurysm early in infancy, one of them successfully undergoing surgery.

NEW METHODS FOR DETECTION, SUSCEPTIBILITY TESTING AND BIOFILM ERADICATION OF DIFFICULT ORGANISMS

Aujourd'hui, les problèmes des maladies infectieuses concernent l'émergence d'infections difficiles à traiter, telles que les infections associées aux implants et les infections fongiques invasives chez les patients immunodéprimés. L'objectif de cette thèse était de développer des stratégies pour l'éradication des biofilms bactériens (partie 1), ainsi que d'étudier des méthodes innovantes pour la détection microbienne, pour l'établissement de nouveaux tests de sensibilité (partie 2). Le traitement des infections associées aux implants est difficile car les biofilms bactériens peuvent résister à des niveaux élevés d'antibiotiques. A ce jour, il n'y a pas de traitement optimal défini contre des infections causées par des bactéries de prévalence moindre telles que Enterococcus faecalis ou Propionibacterium acnés. Dans un premier temps, nous avons démontré une excellente activité in vitro de la gentamicine sur une souche de E. faecalis en phase stationnaire de croissance Nous avons ensuite confirmé l'activité de la gentamicine sur un biofilm précoce en modèle expérimental animal à corps étranger avec un taux de guérison de 50%. De plus, les courbes de bactéricidie ainsi que les résultats de calorimétrie ont prouvé que l'ajout de gentamicine améliorait l'activité in vitro de la daptomycine, ainsi que celle de la vancomycine. In vivo, le schéma thérapeutique le plus efficace était l'association daptomycine/gentamicine avec un taux de guérison de 55%. En établissant une nouvelle méthode pour l'évaluation de l'activité des antimicrobiens vis-à-vis de micro-organismes en biofilm, nous avons démontré que le meilleur antibiotique actif sur les biofilms à P. acnés était la rifampicine, suivi par la penicilline G, la daptomycine et la ceftriaxone. Les études conduites en modèle expérimental animal ont confirmé l'activité de la rifampicine seule avec un taux de guérison 36%. Le meilleur schéma thérapeutique était au final l'association rifampicine/daptomycine avec un taux de guérison 63%. Les associations de rifampicine avec la vancomycine ou la levofloxacine présentaient des taux de guérisons respectivement de 46% et 25%. Nous avons ensuite étudié l'émergence in vitro de la résistance à la rifampicine chez P. acnés. Nous avons observé un taux de mutations de 10"9. La caractérisation moléculaire de la résistance chez les mutant-résistants a mis en évidence l'implication de 5 mutations ponctuelles dans les domaines I et II du gène rpoB. Ce type de mutations a déjà été décrit au préalable chez d'autres espèces bactériennes, corroborant ainsi la validité de nos résultats. La deuxième partie de cette thèse décrit une nouvelle méthode d'évaluation de l'efficacité des antifongiques basée sur des mesures de microcalorimétrie isotherme. En utilisant un microcalorimètre, la chaleur produite par la croissance microbienne peut être-mesurée en temps réel, très précisément. Nous avons évalué l'activité de l'amphotéricine B, des triazolés et des échinocandines sur différentes souches de Aspergillus spp. par microcalorimétrie. La présence d'amphotéricine Β ou de triazole retardait la production de chaleur de manière concentration-dépendante. En revanche, pour les échinochandines, seule une diminution le pic de « flux de chaleur » a été observé. La concordance entre la concentration minimale inhibitrice de chaleur (CMIC) et la CMI ou CEM (définie par CLSI M38A), avec une marge de 2 dilutions, était de 90% pour l'amphotéricine B, 100% pour le voriconazole, 90% pour le pozoconazole et 70% pour la caspofongine. La méthode a été utilisée pour définir la sensibilité aux antifongiques pour d'autres types de champignons filamenteux. Par détermination microcalorimétrique, l'amphotéricine B s'est avéré être l'agent le plus actif contre les Mucorales et les Fusarium spp.. et le voriconazole le plus actif contre les Scedosporium spp. Finalement, nous avons évalué l'activité d'associations d'antifongiques vis-à-vis de Aspergillus spp. Une meilleure activité antifongique était retrouvée avec l'amphotéricine B ou le voriconazole lorsque ces derniers étaient associés aux échinocandines vis-à-vis de A. fumigatus. L'association échinocandine/amphotéricine B a démontré une activité antifongique synergique vis-à-vis de A. terreus, contrairement à l'association échinocandine/voriconazole qui ne démontrait aucune amélioration significative de l'activité antifongique. - The diagnosis and treatment of infectious diseases are today increasingly challenged by the emergence of difficult-to-manage situations, such as infections associated with medical devices and invasive fungal infections, especially in immunocompromised patients. The aim of this thesis was to address these challenges by developing new strategies for eradication of biofilms of difficult-to-treat microorganisms (treatment, part 1) and investigating innovative methods for microbial detection and antimicrobial susceptibility testing (diagnosis, part 2). The first part of the thesis investigates antimicrobial treatment strategies for infections caused by two less investigated microorganisms, Enterococcus faecalis and Propionibacterium acnes, which are important pathogens causing implant-associated infections. The treatment of implant-associated infections is difficult in general due to reduced susceptibility of bacteria when present in biofilms. We demonstrated an excellent in vitro activity of gentamicin against E. faecalis in stationary growth- phase and were able to confirm the activity against "young" biofilms (3 hours) in an experimental foreign-body infection model (cure rate 50%). The addition of gentamicin improved the activity of daptomycin and vancomycin in vitro, as determined by time-kill curves and microcalorimetry. In vivo, the most efficient combination regimen was daptomycin plus gentamicin (cure rate 55%). Despite a short duration of infection, the cure rates were low, highlighting that enterococcal biofilms remain difficult to treat despite administration of newer antibiotics, such as daptomycin. By establishing a novel in vitro assay for evaluation of anti-biofilm activity (microcalorimetry), we demonstrated that rifampin was the most active antimicrobial against P. acnes biofilms, followed by penicillin G, daptomycin and ceftriaxone. In animal studies we confirmed the anti-biofilm activity of rifampin (cure rate 36% when administered alone), as well as in combination with daptomycin (cure rate 63%), whereas in combination with vancomycin or levofloxacin it showed lower cure rates (46% and 25%, respectively). We further investigated the emergence of rifampin resistance in P. acnes in vitro. Rifampin resistance progressively emerged during exposure to rifampin, if the bacterial concentration was high (108 cfu/ml) with a mutation rate of 10"9. In resistant isolates, five point mutations of the rpoB gene were found in cluster I and II, as previously described for staphylococci and other bacterial species. The second part of the thesis describes a novel real-time method for evaluation of antifungals against molds, based on measurements of the growth-related heat production by isothermal microcalorimetry. Current methods for evaluation of antifungal agents against molds, have several limitations, especially when combinations of antifungals are investigated. We evaluated the activity of amphotericin B, triazoles (voriconazole, posaconazole) and echinocandins (caspofungin and anidulafungin) against Aspergillus spp. by microcalorimetry. The presence of amphotericin Β or a triazole delayed the heat production in a concentration-dependent manner and the minimal heat inhibition concentration (MHIC) was determined as the lowest concentration inhibiting 50% of the heat produced at 48 h. Due to the different mechanism of action echinocandins, the MHIC for this antifungal class was determined as the lowest concentration lowering the heat-flow peak with 50%. Agreement within two 2-fold dilutions between MHIC and MIC or MEC (determined by CLSI M38A) was 90% for amphotericin B, 100% for voriconazole, 90% for posaconazole and 70% for caspofungin. We further evaluated our assay for antifungal susceptibility testing of non-Aspergillus molds. As determined by microcalorimetry, amphotericin Β was the most active agent against Mucorales and Fusarium spp., whereas voriconazole was the most active agent against Scedosporium spp. Finally, we evaluated the activity of antifungal combinations against Aspergillus spp. Against A. jumigatus, an improved activity of amphotericin Β and voriconazole was observed when combined with an echinocandin. Against A. terreus, an echinocandin showed a synergistic activity with amphotericin B, whereas in combination with voriconazole, no considerable improved activity was observed.

Fear of model misspecifcation and the robustness premium

Robust decision making implies welfare costs or robustness premia when the approximating model is the true data generating process. To examine the importance of these premia at the aggregate level we employ a simple two-sector dynamic general equilibrium model with human capital and introduce an additional form of precautionary behavior. The latter arises from the robust decision maker s ability to reduce the effects of model misspecification through allocating time and existing human capital to this end. We find that the extent of the robustness premia critically depends on the productivity of time relative to that of human capital. When the relative efficiency of time is low, despite transitory welfare costs, there are gains from following robust policies in the long-run. In contrast, high relative productivity of time implies misallocation costs that remain even in the long-run. Finally, depending on the technology used to reduce model uncertainty, we fi nd that while increasing the fear of model misspecfi cation leads to a net increase in precautionary behavior, investment and output can fall.

A General and Intuitive Envelope Theorem

We present an envelope theorem for establishing first-order conditions in decision problems involving continuous and discrete choices. Our theorem accommodates general dynamic programming problems, even with unbounded marginal utilities. And, unlike classical envelope theorems that focus only on differentiating value functions, we accommodate other endogenous functions such as default probabilities and interest rates. Our main technical ingredient is how we establish the differentiability of a function at a point: we sandwich the function between two differentiable functions from above and below. Our theory is widely applicable. In unsecured credit models, neither interest rates nor continuation values are globally differentiable. Nevertheless, we establish an Euler equation involving marginal prices and values. In adjustment cost models, we show that first-order conditions apply universally, even if optimal policies are not (S,s). Finally, we incorporate indivisible choices into a classic dynamic insurance analysis.

Stochastic demography and the neutral substitution rate in class-structured populations.

The neutral rate of allelic substitution is analyzed for a class-structured population subject to a stationary stochastic demographic process. The substitution rate is shown to be generally equal to the effective mutation rate, and under overlapping generations it can be expressed as the effective mutation rate in newborns when measured in units of average generation time. With uniform mutation rate across classes the substitution rate reduces to the mutation rate.

Quantitative comparison of reconstruction methods for intra-voxel fiber recovery from diffusion MRI.

Validation is arguably the bottleneck in the diffusion magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) community. This paper evaluates and compares 20 algorithms for recovering the local intra-voxel fiber structure from diffusion MRI data and is based on the results of the "HARDI reconstruction challenge" organized in the context of the "ISBI 2012" conference. Evaluated methods encompass a mixture of classical techniques well known in the literature such as diffusion tensor, Q-Ball and diffusion spectrum imaging, algorithms inspired by the recent theory of compressed sensing and also brand new approaches proposed for the first time at this contest. To quantitatively compare the methods under controlled conditions, two datasets with known ground-truth were synthetically generated and two main criteria were used to evaluate the quality of the reconstructions in every voxel: correct assessment of the number of fiber populations and angular accuracy in their orientation. This comparative study investigates the behavior of every algorithm with varying experimental conditions and highlights strengths and weaknesses of each approach. This information can be useful not only for enhancing current algorithms and develop the next generation of reconstruction methods, but also to assist physicians in the choice of the most adequate technique for their studies.

Anàlisi genètica i molecular de les malalties Niemann-Pick tipus A/B i tipus C. Estratègies terapèutiques.

Aquest treball es basa en l’estudi de dues malalties lisosòmiques: la malaltia de Niemann-Pick A/B (NPAB) i la malaltia de Niemann-Pick tipus C (NPC). En relació a la malaltia de NPAB, s’ha realitzat l’expressió in vitro d’algunes de les mutacions de canvi d’aminoàcid trobades en pacients espanyols per tal de detectar les activitats enzimàtiques residuals. Totes les mutacions presenten una activitat molt baixa, gairebé nul•la, excepte la p.L225P i la R608del que tenen un 11% i 20% d’activitat respectivament. Els resultats obtinguts són coherents amb la severitat del fenotip que presenten els pacients. D’altra banda, s’ha caracteritzat un al•lel amb una mutació que afecta a una posició poc conservada d’un donador de splicing i que produeix la generació de trànscrits aberrants corresponents a trànscrits minoritaris de SMPD1, prèviament descrits, que no codifiquen per proteïna funcional. Respecte a malaltia de NPC, s’ha realitzat una anàlisi molecular de pacients espanyols prèviament estudiats identificant, en la majoria dels casos, la segona mutació responsable de la patologia. S’ha descrit per primer cop per aquesta malaltia una gran deleció que inclou el gen NPC1 i altres gens flanquejants i s’ha estudiat l’efecte que tenen les mutacions de splicing trobades a nivell de RNA. Per una d’aquestes mutacions, c.1554-1009G&A, s’ha assajat amb èxit una estratègia terapèutica basada en la utilització d’oligonuclèotids antisentit. D’altra banda, s’està desenvolupant un model cel•lular neuronal de la malaltia de Niemann-Pick tipus C, basat en la utilització de RNAs d’interferència, sobre el qual es podran assajar possibles estratègies terapèutiques en un futur.

Banc electrònic d'objectes i recursos d'aprenentatge dels estudis de comunicació audiovisual

OdACAV és un banc electrònic d’objectes d’aprenentatge (OdA) que te com a finalitat principal servir als docents de les assignatures troncals dels Estudis de Comunicació Audiovisual (CAV) de la UB (obert també a altres universitats catalanes) implicats o que es vulguin implicar en la innovació docent i pretén facilitar i potenciar la documentació per a la investigació i la recerca a l’entorn del paper innovador dels OdA digitals; així com la patrimonialització dels mateixos. Què és i que no és un OdA de CAV? És tot allò que serveix en un procés d'ensinistrament, d'aprenentatge, de formació - que en els cas que ens ocupa, es tradueix en una col·lecció d'imatges fixes, en un hipertext, en una hipermèdia, un vídeo, etc.-, i la missió dels quals és suscitar l’interès i l'aprofitament en el transvasament dels continguts de les assignatures dels estudis actuals (de la Llicenciatura) i futurs (del Grau) de Comunicació Audiovisual. El projecte sorgeix com a necessitat orgànica de la mateixa naturalesa de l'ensenyament de Comunicació Audiovisual, on en el pla dels continguts els exemples, els referents, els models no són encara prou desenvolupats i costa molt disposar d'OdAs suficientment competents. Les fonts documentals del cinema, de la televisió i dels mitjans en general són la base sobre la que s’han bastit els OdA de la base de dades del web http://www.lmi.ub.es/repositori/ amb l’esperança que resultin adequats a la innovació en els Estudis de Comunicació Audiovisual. És, doncs, un repositori de condició cooperativa, dinàmic i flexible; amb esperit blog/wiki, els objectius del qual són: la creació d'un sistema de dipositació dels OdA; l'establiment d'un sistema de recuperació dels mateixos; la implantació de fluxos d'entrada i sortida; la consolidació d'un observatori d'investigació i de recerca sobre la innovació dels OdA en els entorns i els sistemes educatius actuals; l’articulació de possibles accions patrimonials al voltant de la creació i preservació d’aquests.

MR MAQ: algorisme de Read Mapping utilitzant la plataforma Hadoop

L’èxit del Projecte Genoma Humà (PGH) l’any 2000 va fer de la “medicina personalitzada” una realitat més propera. Els descobriments del PGH han simplificat les tècniques de seqüenciació de tal manera que actualment qualsevol persona pot aconseguir la seva seqüència d’ADN complerta. La tecnologia de Read Mapping destaca en aquest tipus de tècniques i es caracteritza per manegar una gran quantitat de dades. Hadoop, el framework d’Apache per aplicacions intensives de dades sota el paradigma Map Reduce, resulta un aliat perfecte per aquest tipus de tecnologia i ha sigut l’opció escollida per a realitzar aquest projecte. Durant tot el treball es realitza l’estudi, l’anàlisi i les experimentacions necessàries per aconseguir un Algorisme Genètic innovador que utilitzi tot el potencial de Hadoop.

Genome comparison of progressively drug resistant Plasmodium falciparum lines derived from drug sensitive clone

Chloroquine has been the mainstay of malaria chemotherapy for the past five decades, but resistance is now widespread. Pyrimethamine or proguanil form an important component of some alternate drug combinations being used for treatment of uncomplicated Plasmodium falciparum infections in areas of chloroquine resistance. Both pyrimethamine and proguanil are dihydrofolate reductase (DHFR) inhibitors, the proguanil acting primarily through its major metabolite cycloguanil. Resistance to these drugs arises due to specific point mutations in the dhfr gene. Cross resistance between cycloguanil and pyrimethamine is not absolute. It is, therefore, important to investigate mutation rates in P. falciparum for pyrimethamine and proguanil so that DHFR inhibitor with less mutation rate is favored in drug combinations. Hence, we have compared mutation rates in P. falciparum genome for pyrimethamine and cycloguanil. Using erythrocytic stages of P. falciparum cultures, progressively drug resistant lines were selected in vitro and comparing their RFLP profile with a repeat sequence. Our finding suggests that pyrimethamine has higher mutation rate compared to cycloguanil. It enhances the degree of genomic polymorphism leading to diversity of natural parasite population which in turn is predisposes the parasites for faster selection of resistance to some other antimalarial drugs.

Conditioned polarized Caco-2 cell monolayers allow to discriminate for the ability of gut-derived microorganisms to modulate permeability and antigen-induced basophil degranulation.

BACKGROUND: Food allergy is a common allergic disorder--especially in early childhood. The avoidance of the allergenic food is the only available method to prevent further reactions in sensitized patients. A better understanding of the immunologic mechanisms involved in this reaction would help to develop therapeutic approaches applicable to the prevention of food allergy. OBJECTIVE: To establish a multi-cell in vitro model of sensitized intestinal epithelium that mimics the intestinal epithelial barrier to study the capacity of probiotic microorganisms to modulate permeability, translocation and immunoreactivity of ovalbumin (OVA) used as a model antigen. METHODS: Polarized Caco-2 cell monolayers were conditioned by basolateral basophils and used to examine apical to basolateral transport of OVA by ELISA. Activation of basophils with translocated OVA was measured by beta-hexosaminidase release assay. This experimental setting was used to assess how microorganisms added apically affected these parameters. Basolateral secretion of cytokine/chemokines by polarized Caco-2 cell monolayers was analysed by ELISA. RESULTS: Basophils loaded with OVA-specific IgE responded to OVA in a dose-dependent manner. OVA transported across polarized Caco-2 cell monolayers was found to trigger basolateral basophil activation. Microorganisms including lactobacilli and Escherichia coli increased transepithelial electrical resistance while promoting OVA passage capable to trigger basophil activation. Non-inflammatory levels of IL-8 and thymic stromal lymphopoietin were produced basolaterally by Caco-2 cells exposed to microorganisms. CONCLUSION: The complex model designed in here is adequate to learn about the consequence of the interaction between microorganisms and epithelial cells vis-a-vis the barrier function and antigen translocation, two parameters essential to mucosal homeostasis. It can further serve as a direct tool to search for microorganisms with anti-allergic and anti-inflammatory properties.

Morbidity of schistosomiasis mansoni in the state of Minas Gerais, Brazil

From 2002 to 2005, a program of active search for patients with hepatosplenic schistosomiasis and schistosomal myeloradiculopathy has been implemented in the state of Minas Gerais by the local Health Department. The state was divided in 28 regional health centers and the local representatives have been trained to identify and direct patients with hepatosplenic schistosomiasis and neuroschistosomiasis to a reference center in Belo Horizonte, the capital of the state of Minas Gerais. Seventy five patients with hepatosplenic schistosomiasis and 54 with schistosomal myeloradiculopathy have been referred and examined in the reference center in a period of time of 3 years. Schistosomal myeloradiculopathy should be emphasized because the number of cases reported is increasing rapidly and when timely diagnosed and treated, they respond promptly to treatment. Left untreated, they die or become invalid for life. In our view, the time has come for more active investigation of the different aspects of morbidity caused by schistosomiasis mansoni in Brazil.